What's Still On and What's Now Off

[flynnibus]

Do we have any sense of the demographics of the people who are losing their jobs versus the typical WDW visitor? I think a lot of the people affected are from service industries and manufacturing, with many white collar office jobs just shifting to work from home and not being laid off.

That's what so different about this kind of economic situation vs others... It is not segment specific. Everyone from waiters to white collar contractors are being laid off. The interconnected nature of our economy means when Company A stops, there are numerous other connected companies all have their demand shunted... and all their workers are impacted too. When large swaths of companies stop or see demand go down, their spending crashes too.. and thus a whole other network of companies see their demand crash as well.

For instance - advertising industry. Sales is another.

This isn't a 'this is gonna kill restaurants...' event... this is the majority of our economy. Many bigger companies have been able to pay their workers while idled or switch to some sort of remote working... but their normal expense and revenue models are trashed. That means they will have to make massive changes to move forward. Many simply won't be able to make it work and will crash. Others will try to reduce costs (layoffs) to re-align costs with revenues.

Just like you see with Disney... what they did in the first month is not necessarily representative of what they will be able to sustain or what they will look like 'on the other side'.

 

[Piebald]

Do we have any sense of the demographics of the people who are losing their jobs versus the typical WDW visitor? I think a lot of the people affected are from service industries and manufacturing, with many white collar office jobs just shifting to work from home and not being laid off. Other than locals, are typical Disney guests now more on the upper end of the income scale and this not as affected by this? I'd have to think that all the price hikes have priced many people out of a trip but I am just guessing. And certainly some people will be affected of course.

This is completely unprecedented. I know that word is overused but there isnt a much better word. People who think only restaurant workers and hospitality are affected are looking at this extremely one sided. Some of those white collar folks are and will be just as affected if not now then sooner rather than later. Think of services that provide support for these massive industries. Payroll processes, consulting, technology and accounting services will lose a ton of revenue if their clients have gone kaput. There are nurse practitioners and physical therapists currently furloughed or with hours severely cut. This pandemic is exposing just how many Americans live paycheck to paycheck. The jobs that have been cut en masse are because some industries just dropped dead, but if this doesn't get better and very soon that will bleed out into a lot more jobs.

 

[larryz]

That's what so different about this kind of economic situation vs others... It is not segment specific. Everyone from waiters to white collar contractors are being laid off. The interconnected nature of our economy means when Company A stops, there are numerous other connected companies all have their demand shunted... and all their workers are impacted too. When large swaths of companies stop or see demand go down, their spending crashes too.. and thus a whole other network of companies see their demand crash as well.

For instance - advertising industry. Sales is another.

This isn't a 'this is gonna kill restaurants...' event... this is the majority of our economy. Many bigger companies have been able to pay their workers while idled or switch to some sort of remote working... but their normal expense and revenue models are trashed. That means they will have to make massive changes to move forward. Many simply won't be able to make it work and will crash. Others will try to reduce costs (layoffs) to re-align costs with revenues.

Just like you see with Disney... what they did in the first month is not necessarily representative of what they will be able to sustain or what they will look like 'on the other side'.

When did this become the Coronavirus FUD thread?

 

[larryz]

This is completely unprecedented.

This is not unprecedented -- it's just a different situation now than it was in 1918. The US economy is a lot more service-based now than the manufacturing it was based on back then. That puts more workers liable to economic disruption by things like an unchecked pandemic. Disney is an entertainment company, and entertainment is low on the priority list when it comes to basic survival. The Disney parks are even further down the list.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

This is not unprecedented -- it's just a different situation now than it was in 1918. The US economy is a lot more service-based now than the manufacturing it was based on back then. That puts more workers liable to economic disruption by things like an unchecked pandemic. Disney is an entertainment company, and entertainment is low on the priority list when it comes to basic survival. The Disney parks are even further down the list.

Yep. If anything, what probably has been unprecedented is the decades of relative stability, normalcy, and overall economic improvement in the Western world, especially America, after World War II.

 

[flynnibus]

This is not unprecedented -- it's just a different situation now than it was in 1918. The US economy is a lot more service-based now than the manufacturing it was based on back then. That puts more workers liable to economic disruption by things like an unchecked pandemic.

... which is what makes its unprecedented. To have THIS KIND OF SOCIETY go through THIS KIND OF EVENT. This is not about 'services' -- This is about having most economic activity frozen.

The guy trying to sell payroll software by visiting clients ... is not able to do that.
The guy trying to sell new hair curlers to buyers for retail... is not able to do that.
The guy who runs the forklifts at the convention center... is not able to do that.
The guy making party balloons has had their demand goto zero...
The guy making office furniture has had their demand goto zero...
The guy selling cars has had their demand goto zero...
The tax guy has seen his entire business model nullified...
The guy contracting design services to customers and government... have had their work frozen
and it goes on and on.

And when we talk about WDW visitors -- the point is it's not just some segment that is unlikely to be WDW Visitors (low wage, week to week workers). The people that own businesses... the white collar worker... the skilled labors... the life long tradesman... They are not immune from this event.

 

[kpilcher]

Florida's peak has been updated. Per https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections , It is now the 21st of April. Not sure what this will change in the long run, but it gives me hope!
View attachment 461496

We can Certainly all hope that’s true. But models are just that. And nature has a way of throwing curveballs. I’m no epidemiologist (and I don’t play one on tv) but I’d think Disney will be more concerned with the far end of the bell curve when cases are almost all gone, but That’s an educated guess too.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Reading elsewhere (not the site that shall not be named) that food and beverage price increases are still on...

 

[TeriofTerror]

Reading elsewhere (not the site that shall not be named) that food and beverage price increases are still on...

According to Disney Food Blog, some drinks have increased by as much as $2.00.

 

[Lilofan]

According to Disney Food Blog, some drinks have increased by as much as $2.00.

If that's the case I will ask for less ice and more substance.

 

[WDW Pro]

Update:

August is now the company's internal target for reopening the domestic parks. Planning is underway for a televised, Disney + fireworks show for Independence Day, but would be without any significant physical audience, would involve closed roads, and would need permission from Florida. Epcot is still not planned to reopen with the rest of the parks and would lag by perhaps a month or so. Mandatory temperature checks would occur at each gate and resort entrance. Unlikely at this time that all resorts may open simultaneously - a plan internally titled Secure Circuit would see only MK resorts open with monorail service to MK and bus service to AK / DHS. This is the highest level health screening plan to attempt reopening with Florida and US government assistance. It would be temporary but could get things opened once more. No plans to reopen the water parks this summer. Temporarily expect to see directional arrows on the ground to direct foot traffic so that social distancing is easier. Dining modifications are still underway in the planning stage with tiered systems for gradually returning to normal when possible. Expect domestic parks to operate as regional entities rather than international destinations for the next year or so.

 

[Touchdown]

I don’t see why Disney would remain closed through August based on recent projections, it also does not fit with allowing resort bookings (and encouraging them) starting June 1st. The main wave for this is going to be over in this country by the end of May, and California before that. Unless something unexpected happens or we fail in surveillance I can’t see DLR not operating at full capacity by the 4th of July. WDW might have a quieter summer with reduced hours due to the loss of international guests but I can’t see WDW not being open by the 4th either. I’m sure they are planning your situation as a worst case situation but the data suggests it won’t be needed.

 

[Lilofan]

Update:

August is now the company's internal target for reopening the domestic parks. Planning is underway for a televised, Disney + fireworks show for Independence Day, but would be without any significant physical audience, would involve closed roads, and would need permission from Florida. Epcot is still not planned to reopen with the rest of the parks and would lag by perhaps a month or so. Mandatory temperature checks would occur at each gate and resort entrance. Unlikely at this time that all resorts may open simultaneously - a plan internally titled Secure Circuit would see only MK resorts open with monorail service to MK and bus service to AK / DHS. This is the highest level health screening plan to attempt reopening with Florida and US government assistance. It would be temporary but could get things opened once more. No plans to reopen the water parks this summer. Temporarily expect to see directional arrows on the ground to direct foot traffic so that social distancing is easier. Dining modifications are still underway in the planning stage with tiered systems for gradually returning to normal when possible. Expect domestic parks to operate as regional entities rather than international destinations for the next year or so.

Confirmation or all speculation?

 

[Piebald]

August seems like a pipe dream right now. Wouldnt the Asian parks opening up set precedent ? What if rushing the parks opening up results in a massive spike in Central Florida?

Yeesh. I went to the parks the day they closed and the tension in the air was disturbing. I felt guilty and went home early (we just walked around, no rides) so I cant imagine going in August if things are still even slightly risky.

 

[marni1971]

can’t see DLR not operating at full capacity by the 4th of July. WDW might have a quieter summer with reduced hours due to the loss of international guests but I can’t see WDW not being open by the 4th either. I’m sure they are planning your situation as a worst case situation but the data suggests it won’t be needed.

You really think any park would be open on July 4th?

 

[Rteetz]

DVC better come up with some sort of plan then.

 

[Touchdown]

You really think any park would be open on July 4th?

If:

-Cases drop to manageable levels such that the CDC can contact trace
-Testing for antibody testing and antigen testing are widespread and antibody negative individuals are tested on a regular basis

Then yes, I do. The fact that the peak is happening sooner is going to be very helpful in increasing the testing capacity. I do think that this country will be in that situation by the 4th.

I don’t see the entire amusement park industry throwing in the towel on the entire summer.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Confirmation or all speculation?

Nothing is confirmed until it's announced, you know that. He's merely posting about what information his sources have provided.

 

[Jayhawker]

I could see August being the official re-opening. It will be interesting to see how this is all implemented.

 

[HauntedPirate]

If:

-Cases drop to manageable levels such that the CDC can contact trace
-Testing for antibody testing and antigen testing are widespread and antibody negative individuals are tested on a regular basis

Then yes, I do. The fact that the peak is happening sooner is going to be very helpful in increasing the testing capacity. I do think that this country will be in that situation by the 4th.

I don’t see the entire amusement park industry throwing in the towel on the entire summer.

That testing is a long ways off.