What's Still On and What's Now Off

[MisterPenguin]

I wonder if we are allowed to say **** Van ****?

Only old dance partner's of Dick Van Dyke may.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Gonna be awhile before we see FoF, HEA, etc again?

Any restrictions on crowds or social distancing that may still be in effect when lockdowns end will mean that the parks won't be open at all.

You can't limit crowds to 500 and open a Disney Park.

You can't keep six feet away from one another and open a Disney Park. Parades and fireworks aren't the only issue. Lines and transportation, too.

If something isn't open when the parks are allowed to open, it will be because of operational issues: too costly; needs repair; need to train new staff to run it.

 

[Tavernacle12]

I can see ways of forcing social distancing (maybe forced guided tours only?) but wouldn’t they also have to disinfect every ride vehicle every time too?

Ideally there’d be an easy test that everyone would take before going in, but that seems really unlikely.

 

[WDWTrojan]

I'm very interested to see what they come up with to limit capacity, crowds, and surface contamination, because I think these will be long-term solutions, not short-term ones. Even if a vaccine for COVID-19 is successful, this whole thing has shown how vulnerably Disney's business model is to an epidemic like this. It's not unlike how global acts of terror demonstrated some of Disney's vulnerabilities. They made some (limited) changes, but basically counted on people forgetting their fears and going to the parks and theaters anyway.

But to make the parks safer against a virus, the basic infrastructure of the parks will need to be redesigned and rebuilt–limited capacities, larger spaces in queue switchbacks (or no queues at all), greater space between ride vehicles, isolating features, new cleaning protocols, etc.

Anyone remember the clear plexiglass "scream shields" on DCA's old Maliboomer ride? Imagine a contraption like that on every ride!

There was a news article yesterday out of Washington State where a choir practiced for two hours, they made conscious points not to shake hands or have close personal interaction, yet 45 of the 60 members were later diagnosed with COVID-19. It's an insane story yet there wasn't a single surface touched by all the members. This alone makes it clear why it would be near-impossible for places like Disney to open in the near-term and no matter how much scrubbing of seats and surfaces they'd do, the primary route of infection is person-to-person, which is something Disney simply can't avoid.

Put in all the virtual queues you want, scrub every ride vehicle after each ride - people are still going to have to be near eachother in (reduced) lines or half-filled pre-shows. Because of this, those "mitigation effects," will wind up being like security at the front of the parks, 80% theater.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak

 

[MisterPenguin]

Throwing my two cents in. Where did the information about Star Wars Hotel being defunded come from? I have spoken with people working on the project and there were meetings yesterday and today about upcoming work. Sure, it will be slowed down, but I haven't heard defunded.

Here...

Disney Construction Projects Defunded, Layoffs Underway

Walt Disney World news, photos, and reviews! We provide you with daily news from the Walt Disney World theme parks and beyond

blogmickey.com

But "defunded" doesn't mean forever. It could mean budget for this quarter or year moved out for something else, then refunded next quarter or year.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I can see ways of forcing social distancing (maybe forced guided tours only?) but wouldn’t they also have to disinfect every ride vehicle every time too?

Ideally there’d be an easy test that everyone would take before going in, but that seems really unlikely.

In addition to respiratory droplets from just talking, there are more surfaces than what is just on a ride.

Sure, a CM can quickly wipe a lap bar and a handle... but can they wipe down all the seats and the exterior of every vehicle that a guest might have touched? And how can they do that with an omnimover?

And then they'll need to be *constantly* wiping down every hand rail for the length of every queue. Every counter at every quickserve and store. Every product in every store that someone picks up and puts back.

Every transportation vehicle: monorail, bus, ferry, and gondola would need a wipe down.


Parks will open only when distancing constraints and crowd size limits are removed. If no vaccine, you'll have to wait 'til a majority of people have had CV and recovered and there's enough herd immunity to deal the the constant but low level critical cases.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

In addition to respiratory droplets from just talking, there are more surfaces than what is just on a ride.

Sure, a CM can quickly wipe a lap bar and a handle... but can they wipe down all the seats and the exterior of every vehicle that a guest might have touched? And how can they do that with an omnimover?

And then they'll need to be *constantly* wiping down every hand rail for the length of every queue. Every counter at every quickserve and store. Every product in every store that someone picks up and puts back.

Every transportation vehicle: monorail, bus, ferry, and gondola would need a wipe down.


Parks will open only when distancing constraints and crowd size limits are removed. If no vaccine, you'll have to wait 'til a majority of people have had CV and recovered and there's enough herd immunity to deal the the constant but low level critical cases.

And that doesn't take into account that kids touch all kinds of things that adults never even think about. When my boys were small, I used to get down on my hands and knees to clean, and I'd find dirty fingerprints, etc. in all kinds of very strange places.

 

[marni1971]

One big question I have and am waiting for is whenever they open, will attractions and shows be reduced or closed as well?

Potentially and probably. For several reasons both have been discussed.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

I’m sure they’re spitballing...but it makes sense, doesn’t it?

I’m not sure this wouldn’t be permanent? At least until the perception fades. It’s just common sense mixed up in a nice word salad with a vinaigrette...but if you need an example: the bag checks are 100% silly. They prevent nothing and have really done nothing - but they value the perception and pay to staff it 19 years after the impetus for them.

It’s Disney...perception is a big part of their reality.

...which is exactly how this will be decided. Based on risk in the near and long term. What’s “normal” won’t be normal again - just a hunch.

First off the security checks are not just for show. They have stopped people from bringing guns in many times. But, as soon as there’s a vaccine, life will go more back to “normal.” If anything, a capacity limit would hurt the perception more than help.

 

[havoc315]

Any restrictions on crowds or social distancing that may still be in effect when lockdowns end will mean that the parks won't be open at all.

You can't limit crowds to 500 and open a Disney Park.

You can't keep six feet away from one another and open a Disney Park. Parades and fireworks aren't the only issue. Lines and transportation, too.

If something isn't open when the parks are allowed to open, it will be because of operational issues: too costly; needs repair; need to train new staff to run it.

Its not going to be the current 6-feet-apart social distancing.

But there are lots of other ways to reduce social density.

-Keep attendance low enough that all rides are walk-on or fastpass only. So no queues with hundreds of people just standing in place.

-change entry procedures to reduce/eliminate the bottleneck as park entrances. (For example, instead of a line of turn styles... scan tickets as part of transportation to the park, or as people approach the park, etc. eliminate biometrics to keep everyone moving faster.

-transportation adjustments. Run twice as many buses with each bus at only half full.

-mandatory mask wearing— yes, uncomfortable. But effective at reducing spread from asymptomatic carriers.


The biggest barriers, as I see it:
-Parades and fireworks... really sucks to cancel those.
-indoor attractions... especially something like Flight of Passage.
-restaurants —considering even in moderate crowds, restaurants are 100% full all day... going to be hard to reduce that density even with lower attendance. (More mobile ordering is a partial solution. Reduces QS lines. And even mobile ordering at TS restaurants could speed up meals, meaning fewer diners at a time)

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

There's no reason why Epcot should be singled out for a delayed opening.

The reason I singled Epcot out is because it’s such a large park that requires a lot of CM’s to operate. MK and DAK seem like the easiest and cheapest to open and operate with restrictions and limited capacity.

 

[havoc315]

And that doesn't take into account that kids touch all kinds of things that adults never even think about. When my boys were small, I used to get down on my hands and knees to clean, and I'd find dirty fingerprints, etc. in all kinds of very strange places.

A few possible solutions:

1– mandatory masks. That will reduce the amount of virus being spread onto surfaces.
2– literally hand guests a chlorox wipe as they board attractions. Have guests wipe down their own areas (just like gym equipment). yes, not every person will wipe it perfectly clean. But if it’s being constantly wiped down, hundreds of times in a day... very low risk of any virus remaining.

no, these procedures would not 100% stop viral spread. But it’s not about 100% stopping it. It’s about significantly reducing risk.
It’s about the difference of maybe 5 people contracting the virus at Disney World per day, as opposed to 500 per day or 5000 per day.

 

[MisterPenguin]

But there are lots of other ways to reduce social density.

If there's an order to reduce social density, how will those parameters be defined?

 

[MisterPenguin]

The reason I singled Epcot out is because it’s such a large park that requires a lot of CM’s to operate. MK and DAK seem like the easiest and cheapest to open and operate with restrictions and limited capacity.

Chefs are much cheaper then engineers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

First off the security checks are not just for show. They have stopped people from bringing guns in many times. But, as soon as there’s a vaccine, life will go more back to “normal.” If anything, a capacity limit would hurt the perception more than help.

Those people brought guns in long before with near zero incidents. It’s Florida...they issue conceal permits...that’s not a problem of Disney’s making.

Disney parks are too expensive for gamgbangers...long story short.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A few possible solutions:

1– mandatory masks. That will reduce the amount of virus being spread onto surfaces.
2– literally hand guests a chlorox wipe as they board attractions. Have guests wipe down their own areas (just like gym equipment). yes, not every person will wipe it perfectly clean. But if it’s being constantly wiped down, hundreds of times in a day... very low risk of any virus remaining.

no, these procedures would not 100% stop viral spread. But it’s not about 100% stopping it. It’s about significantly reducing risk.
It’s about the difference of maybe 5 people contracting the virus at Disney World per day, as opposed to 500 per day or 5000 per day.

Those are solutions...not sure how realistic?

1. Does Disney want to pay for that? No
2. Do customers want to pay to go deal with that? My guess is 75% no

 

[tinker-ella]

I know I said I wouldn't be posting anything during the pandemic, but I received some information about the severity of cuts coming for projects at WDW. I thought I'd make a brief post about that, although there are much more important issues in the world today. I likely won't be checking in often for conversation, but I may reply from time to time.

What's Likely to Be Completed:

• Tron Coaster
• Guardians of the Galaxy Coaster
• Cinderella Castle Retheme
• Ratatouille
• Space 220

What's Likely to Be Delayed:

• Innoventions Demo
• MFSR Update
• Harmonious

What's Currenty Being Looked at for Abandonment:

• Mary Poppins Expansion
• Moana Expansion
• Unannounced Journey Into Imagination Upgrade
• Star Wars Hotel
• Galaxy's Edge Expansions / Upgrades
• Spaceship Earth Refurb
• Wonders of Life Pavilion Retheme
• Coco Attraction
• Reflections Lakeside Lodge
• Every other potential addition not listed here

Furthermore, Disney is currently working on a plan for what re-opening WDW looks like. Every week it is shut down, it becomes more difficult to reopen. In the best case scenario where WDW can be reopened in May, while still taking massive precautions during a global pandemic, this is the general outline:

Magic Kingdom reopens with 50% capacity. No parades, no fireworks, no indoor theaters, significant number of rides down.
Epcot not currently planned to reopen with the other parks.
DHS reopens with 40% capacity. No parades, no indoor theaters.
Animal Kingdom reopens with 50% capacity. No indoor theaters.
No plans to reopen Blizzard Beach or Typhoon Lagoon in the near term.
All ride vehicles would require mandatory wipe down once in station.
No character meets.
Distancing encouraged.

To cut back on park capacity, would you imagine that they would consider eliminating annual passes?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The reason I singled Epcot out is because it’s such a large park that requires a lot of CM’s to operate. MK and DAK seem like the easiest and cheapest to open and operate with restrictions and limited capacity.

MK and DAK are the first to open and it’s not debatable. MK is a symbol that drives business...dak has unavoidable sunk cost

Epcot is the antithesis of those. Costs way more to run than the layman realizes and therefore is easiest to be shuttered.

 

[havoc315]

If there's an order to reduce social density, how will those parameters be defined?

May not be a formal government set parameter, just a general recommendation. And then it's up to Disney how to best implement those parameters. Why would Disney voluntarily enforce parameters? Because failing to do so would be negligent..... Because thousands of guests contracting Coronavirus would be a public relations nightmare and could lead to billions in negligence lawsuits.

Or considering how reliant Florida, and specifically the Orlando area, are on theme parks -- Wouldn't be surprised to see State and local government and the theme parks work together to establish parameters. Parameters that include maximum attendance, restaurant density, mask requirements, hand washing requirements, etc.

I fully expect there to be steps to reduce social density and reduce disease transmission. I don't know to what extent those steps will be government mandated and to what extent they will be "voluntary."

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To cut back on park capacity, would you imagine that they would consider eliminating annual passes?

They cannot for one simple reason:
1. DVC.

But even beyond that...APs are not a high percentage of the daily travelers.

The easiest way is to restrict access to on property rooms. And nobody would much like that