What's Still On and What's Now Off

[the.dreamfinder]

Indeed. Though Epic Universe and those poor designers/engineers are in a delicate place. The market is hoping for a early May reopening where everyone starts spending and things go back to the way they were before. The market is naturally optimistic. Usually that optimism works, but not always.

If we do go into recession, I’d expect Universal to cancel the expansion. Increasing your capacity 30% when your existing parks are empty is insane.

Edit: 50% haha goof

Epic Universe could be cancelled and we’d still end up with much of what is going in for day one if they wanted to move those additions to IoA and USF.

 

[SilentWindODoom]

I think everyone understands their business is pretty much limited to online merchandising and whatever scraps they can get from TV and Disney+.

The question was whether or not that means facing bankruptcy by September, which I said was ridiculous.

The fact the businesses aren't working is terrible for Disney, but their operating costs are also going to drop just as significantly with any sort of longer term shut down. Other fixed costs like debt service and other ongoing operating expenses will continue and will cost the company billions. My point was, Disney can weather several billion dollars in losses and has assets and ability to tap credit markets should things worsen. It's going to take a hell of a lot longer than September for that to be reality.

Ahh... I parsed the sentence as them not going bankrupt just because they can't open the parks, with September being the common optimistic estimate of opening.

The sort of scuttlebutt in the industry is that while D+ debuted strong, its lack of real new adult-skewing content has made new subscribers slow to a crawl and with COVID-19, they won't be able to add some for quite some time.

Yeah. That's about how I pictured it. With everything coming from in house, it works for binging and a safe platform for kids. But it's not going to have the constant influx of new stuff that a platform bringing in weekly programming or regular releases from different production companies will get. I assume most people that plan to have it already have it, with a lot of the people who would watch their theatrical releases already paid in, so no new income, and the repeat viewings that might happen in theaters gets no profit. Let alone families that share an account.

 

[WDW862]

Do they start with seasonal cast members, offer CM’s close to retirement a sweetheart deal to retire, stop the Disney Aspire program, eliminate main gates for cast members and don’t start the college program back up?????

If this goes on for a while, my guess would be: Furlough some CM's, reduce the amount CP's accepted, force retirement/layoff salaried employees, reduce part time hours to a minimum.

This is probably the worst case scenario though. A lobbyist told the Whitehouse that employee retention is their main priority. Disney also has a high turnover, so a hiring freeze for a while could be good enough.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

If this goes on for a while, my guess would be: Furlough some CM's, reduce the amount CP's accepted, force retirement/layoff salaried employees, reduce part time hours to a minimum.

This is probably the worst case scenario though. A lobbyist told the Whitehouse that employee retention is their main priority. Disney also has a high turnover, so a hiring freeze for a while could be good enough.

I know their transfer genie is down and everyone’s transfer has been wiped clean off

 

[doctornick]

When comparing Disney to Universal also remember Universal is owned by Comcast. Comcast’s main revenue source is cable, and that business in the shutdown is at worse stable and more likely growing as internet/cable is the only source of entertainment and a vital source to the work at home group. Disney+ is likely the only Disney revenue source growing currently and that is a fraction of their typical revenue.

Relatively minor, but Disney's purchase of BAMTech is probably helping given that it provides infrastructure for streaming that is now in higher demand. Also, Hotstar is a similar situation to Comcast's cable service... and in a much greater populated country. And Disney's TV networks will benefit from people's cable/satellite subscriptions and potential higher viewership in terms of ad revenue.

It's certainly true that most of Disney's subsidiaries will be hurting big time though.

 

[WDW862]

I know their transfer genie is down and everyone’s transfer has been wiped clean off

Yup, I can personally confirm that this is true.

 

[doctornick]

Disney's been dropping about $4B a year in capex. Half of that toward repair, maintenance, upgrade, refurb. The other half in new stuff (for all parks and cruise lines and adventures and merch).

Disney could cut back on those for a full year or more (like the many years after the Great Recession when there was almost no capex expenditures).

You save $4B here, some $4B there, and soon you're talking real money.

Yeah. I hope people enjoy the new attractions that have been built and perhaps the few that are far enough alone that they'll be completed... because we all know that there's going to be a major pause on anything else new for while. I'm at least glad that this happened after a bunch of new/long overdue additions for WDW.

I'm hoping that GotG and Tron are far enough along that they happen and do so on the same basic schedules. I do fear for the former being value engineering for anything they feel they can cut.

I think a night parade for MK is gone now (if it ever were a possibility). The only hope would be getting something from DLR (hey, who wants to see MSEP again!) but even shipping something like that might be considered too costly.

Entertainment being added to Galaxy's Edge? Changing of any stale shows around the property? Poppins attraction? No one should be getting any hopes up about anything. Wouldn't count on the Avengers ride or even MMRR for Disneyland for a while either.

 

[doctornick]

Epic Universe could be cancelled and we’d still end up with much of what is going in for day one if they wanted to move those additions to IoA and USF.

Is there much room at those parks for large additions? I mean, I know there is some space and probably some things they feel are outdated that could be replaced, but not on the scale of what they are planning for Epic Universe, no?

 

[doctornick]

The sort of scuttlebutt in the industry is that while D+ debuted strong, its lack of real new adult-skewing content has made new subscribers slow to a crawl and with COVID-19, they won't be able to add some for quite some time.

There's now a lot of children home for many more hours a day than was expected. I have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if new subscriptions have been increasing in the last month.

On the other hand, most of the bigger stuff that was going to be added to Disney+ later this year has suffered from production delays (I'm thinking the Marvel shows for example) and that's going to hurt getting more people to jump in to sign up.

 

[TrojanUSC]

There's now a lot of children home for many more hours a day than was expected. I have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if new subscriptions have been increasing in the last month.

On the other hand, most of the bigger stuff that was going to be added to Disney+ later this year has suffered from production delays (I'm thinking the Marvel shows for example) and that's going to hurt getting more people to jump in to sign up.

Yes but with so many people out of work and folks being budget conscious, a lot of families are trying to consolidate to one or two streaming services and if D+ doesn't offer enough for everyone, it may get the ax in the household.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Is there much room at those parks for large additions? I mean, I know there is some space and probably some things they feel are outdated that could be replaced, but not on the scale of what they are planning for Epic Universe, no?

SNW was originally intended to go into KidsZone before they closed on the south property; to the point that you can find utility/water permits for SNW USF. HTTYD was strongly hinted at being the replacement for Lost Continent. UNI Monsters could fit in IoA (Toon Lagoon) or USF (MIB and land to its east) and we know they were looking at bringing Fantastic Beasts to the New York section of the park.

Understand that moving these projects to the two existing parks doesn’t mean I don’t believe they shouldn’t build a new gate, just that the timing and business and creative cases for the project, pre COVID-19, were not strong to begin with

 

[UNCgolf]

doesn’t mean I don’t believe they shouldn’t build a new gate

This is a tremendous triple negative.

 

[MisterPenguin]

SNW was originally intended to go into KidsZone before they closed on the south property; to the point that you can find utility/water permits for SNW USF. HTTYD was strongly hinted at being the replacement for Lost Continent. UNI Monsters could fit in IoA (Toon Lagoon) or USF (MIB and land to its east) and we know they were looking at bringing Fantastic Beasts to the New York section of the park.

Understand that moving these projects to the two existing parks doesn’t mean I don’t believe they shouldn’t build a new gate, just that the timing and business and creative cases for the project, pre COVID-19, were not strong to begin with

Well, if USO has to forestall their third gate and put their plans into the existing two... I have an idea for them:

1. In Studios, give up:​

a. New York theming​

b. San Fran theming​

c. MiB​

d. F&F​

​

2. Turn that whole side of Studios into London (UK)​

a. F&F becomes the new Dracula/Frankenstein ride​

b. Mummy stays as is​

c. the rest of the environs has Phantom of the Opera, Invisible Man, Creature, and the rest of the UCM repertoire as various attractions (shops, shows, food service)​

d. upshot: HHN and the UCM are in the same park!​

e. 2nd upshot: the embarrassment of F&F is gone!​

​

3. Fantastic Beasts (or any other Potter extension) replaces MiB​

a. You get a seamless London theme going from the UCM gift show all the way to where MiB used to be.​

 

[Sir_Cliff]

There's now a lot of children home for many more hours a day than was expected. I have no idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if new subscriptions have been increasing in the last month.

On the other hand, most of the bigger stuff that was going to be added to Disney+ later this year has suffered from production delays (I'm thinking the Marvel shows for example) and that's going to hurt getting more people to jump in to sign up.

Very anecdotally, I have noticed those with kids here in the Netherlands and back in my home country of Australia mentioning Disney+ a lot since this hit. It wouldn't surprise me if the sudden need to occupy children day after day and the fact Disney has enough content good for kids that is also bearable for adults is creating a stronger brand loyalty among families with kids than would otherwise be the case.

In my case, I haven't watched anything since The Imagineering Story but continue to watch Netflix a lot for its original content. I suspect, though, the "families with kids" demographic is far more lucrative than the "single guys too restless to watch a movie at home" demographic.

 

[GhostHost1000]

With the new offer for June 1st - Sept for those who cancelled vacations during the shutdown, this doesn’t seem to point to them trying to restrict guests when they do open back up so I’m wondering if the rumor of many things being closed or greatly limited etc may not be accurate.

Most people who already had/have reservations during this time frame have not cancelled and now they are encouraging more. It could be just in case many do cancel but it’s just hard to read.

whats the feeling of WDW not being normal in terms of things operational by June 1st (assuming they’re are open by then)

 

[marni1971]

whats the feeling of WDW not being normal in terms of things operational by June 1st (assuming they’re are open by then)

IF things being to reopen in June, operational changes will become apparent once the reopening is certain. So far as I know the new rules are still being discussed / under review / made up.

To be honest an educational guess says this date is an aspiration and is far from certain.

 

[GhostHost1000]

IF things being to reopen in June, operational changes will become apparent once the reopening is certain. So far as I know the new rules are still being discussed / under review / made up.

To be honest an educational guess says this date is an aspiration and is far from certain.

Thanks for the info as always. I just find it hard to believe limiting guests, shows, and attractions would really do much good because they are lots of places guests won’t be able to distance themselves (bathrooms, queues, gate entrance, busses l, etc) unless those things are just more for PR to keep from any backlash - we’ll just have to wait and see how things pan out

while I don’t think anything will ever be back to normal after this, we can only hope disney for the most part is as it can be a good (facade) escape from the real world

 

[seascape]

Well, if USO has to forestall their third gate and put their plans into the existing two... I have an idea for them:

1. In Studios, give up:​

a. New York theming​

b. San Fran theming​

c. MiB​

d. F&F​

​

2. Turn that whole side of Studios into London (UK)​

a. F&F becomes the new Dracula/Frankenstein ride​

b. Mummy stays as is​

c. the rest of the environs has Phantom of the Opera, Invisible Man, Creature, and the rest of the UCM repertoire as various attractions (shops, shows, food service)​

d. upshot: HHN and the UCM are in the same park!​

e. 2nd upshot: the embarrassment of F&F is gone!​

​

3. Fantastic Beasts (or any other Potter extension) replaces MiB​

a. You get a seamless London theme going from the UCM gift show all the way to where MiB used to be.​

Your post got me thinking. I bet Disney is very happy with Universal and the Marvel contract right now. The only income the parks actually have are the Marvel and Simpson's quarterly guaranteed payment. Then when the parks open up and the surge of attendance comes in the payments will be higher as the payments are determined quarterly and not annually.

 

[TTA94]

Yeah. I hope people enjoy the new attractions that have been built and perhaps the few that are far enough alone that they'll be completed... because we all know that there's going to be a major pause on anything else new for while. I'm at least glad that this happened after a bunch of new/long overdue additions for WDW.

I'm hoping that GotG and Tron are far enough along that they happen and do so on the same basic schedules. I do fear for the former being value engineering for anything they feel they can cut.

I think a night parade for MK is gone now (if it ever were a possibility). The only hope would be getting something from DLR (hey, who wants to see MSEP again!) but even shipping something like that might be considered too costly.

Entertainment being added to Galaxy's Edge? Changing of any stale shows around the property? Poppins attraction? No one should be getting any hopes up about anything. Wouldn't count on the Avengers ride or even MMRR for Disneyland for a while either.

I guess all that was expected to open, or maybe in the works, for 2021/50th could still happen and be looked at as a necessity for the parks to bring in guests and recover from this year?

 

[marni1971]

I guess all that was expected to open, or maybe in the works, for 2021/50th could still happen and be looked at as a necessity for the parks to bring in guests and recover from this year?

I doubt it.