Why would Tdo do this to cars land when it's a proven hit?!
What follows is my attempt to understand TDO’s actions, not to justify them. Other ideas would be greatly appreciated.
My basic assumption is that TDO does what’s financially best for WDW. In their eyes, money comes first. So, if Carsland is wildly successful at DLR, why wouldn’t they want to bring it to DHS?
The only thing I can think of is that TDO believes it’s not a sure-fire money winner for WDW.
How can that be?
Let’s look at some recent history. Both Toy Story Mania (TSM) and Star Tours II (STII) were “hits” but neither resulted in significant attendance bumps. TSM opened in May 2008 amid a faltering economy, estimated attendance at DHS rose from 9.51 million in 2007 to 9.7 million in 2009, a modest 190,000 or only 2% in 2 years. The average daily increase at DHS was only about 520 guests, far less than the capacity of TSM. For reference, during this same period, MK attendance increased by 1%, suggesting the TSM “bump” did not amount to much. Given that TSM always operates at 100% capacity, it seems likely that TSM’s primary effect on attendance was to simply “steal” guests away from other DHS attractions. For example, the American Idol Experience, another newer attraction, has been playing to mostly empty audiences while DHS continues to hand out free FPs for the first showing of Lights, Motors, Action to try to get people to see that show.
Observers agree that Carsland has “stolen” some attendance from DL. I haven’t seen numbers but it’s my understanding that DL attendance is down slightly now that DCA is finally packing them in.
Added together, I’m guessing TDO believes Carsland in DHS will cannibalize patrons from other DHS attractions or other Disney parks, not drive attendance increases. In the end, DHS believes Carsland will cost a lot of money without resulting in a significant revenue increase.
Don’t forget, this is the same TDO that let Harry Potter go to Universal yet spent $450M to revamp their most popular land at MK. I don’t think their decision-making track record has been particularly good of late.
DHS still might get Carsland but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s being shoved down TDO’s throat and certainly expect TDO to try to “minus” it (vs. Walt’s “plus” it) if they end up adding it. It could very well have been that Carsland at DHS was going to be the big announcement at the "What's Next" presentation and that the presentation was replaced because TWDC/TDO still haven't agreed on exactly what Carsland at DHS is going to be.