Long Post Incoming:
While I definitely understand where many are coming from I believe something substantial has to be announced here. As many know D23 is held once every 2 years. This event is the only reliable place we can expect news other then the abnormal parks blog article or sometimes at a shareholders meeting.
Their has been a cycle I have wanted to write about for a while. I have been thinking about it recently I’ll dub it the D23 announcement cycle. Their are a couple of stages of this cycle and it goes a little something like this.
Stage 1: Initial Announcement - The attraction, experience or whatever it may be is announced. Many different opinions on the matter are discussed. Hype is usually high, and faith in investment in the parks is also generally high. Speculation is in full force.
Stage 2: The Long Haul - The attraction, experience or whatever is around 1 - 2 years into construction it has finally set in for some that Disney takes their time with construction. Usually not in a good “take their time” way but in a way that purposely spreads out the construction timeline to spread out costs over quarters or other reasons. Fans are annoyed most of the time (rightfully so). Faith in investment is medium. Speculation is also dwindling.
Stage 3: Disappointment - The attraction, experience or whatever has been under construction for such a long time that many (at least for the time being) have lost interest. Faith in investment is low.
Stage 4 Whispers - The attraction, experience or whatever is at the stage where it is looking ready to open. Hype, and speculation among the fans are reaching levels close to Stage 1.
Stage 6 Opening - The attraction, experience or whatever is finally open or in soft opening. Hype, and Speculation is extremely high. Many are excited to experience the “new” thing.
Stage 7 Retrospective - The attraction, experience or whatever has been open for a while. Enough time for solid opinions to be formed. Most have experienced the attraction. Fans reflect on what they thought before and compare to the final result. In many cases (but not all) some realize that what they have been saying isn’t a good idea for the past few years actually was a good idea in the final result.
How does this tie into D23 you may ask? Well, this cycle repeats every single D23 when a new large scale announcement is made and is actually built. Like I said before D23 is every 2 years. Sometimes these projects are spread over 1-2 D23 presentations. That can be anything from 2-4 years (sometimes more).
Right before a D23 normally the big “new” thing has opened. Their are no new additions to be excited about and hype, speculation, and faith in investment is at an all time low. That is until a few days or weeks before the presentation where our insiders may of heard something about what may be at the presentation. Restoring faith or dampening expectations. Usually another “new” thing is announced to fill the void of the other “new” thing that just opened and the cycle repeats every D23 (normally, their are some exceptions).
This D23 announcement cycle of not really getting any tangible news on large scale projects for 2 years (beyond your occasional Destination D and similar events) is both a blessing and a curse. Waiting for so long on news is obviously going to put a damper on excitement for “new” things. On the other hand though when D23 is going it enables Disney to rule whatever weekend that expo takes place on with all the new announcements both parks, and other. If that year’s D23 ends up being a disappointment usually we don’t hear much tangible things till the next D23 or (in some rare cases) Destination D.
Right now we find ourselves at the end of a cycle. Guardians and TRON are the only two large scale attractions we know about. The EPCOT overhaul at least the part they announced is down to finishing the spine and Moana. Once Guardians opens (probably soon) TRON will be the only “new” attraction we know about. After that opens, the EPCOT spine and Moana are completed. Their will be nothing to speculate on. It only seems logical that a large scale announcement of some sort has to be coming to fill the void left by the other “new” things. Of course, I can’t really take into account COVID and management changes and how that effects anything or how many “new” things are in active development but at least in my experience this seems to be how the cycle works.