What to Watch Going Into the Earnings Report

[Jae Sea]

Still less congested than DHS.

Yes, but DHS has wide open walking areas that will be easier for them to keep people separated without causing as many human traffic jams as they try to get through the areas of bottle neck from narrow walkways in Epcot. They're also going to control the crowd numbers no matter which park it is.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

I honestly can’t tell if you are joking or serious?

If you’re worried about your shares, perhaps now is the time to buy some puts. Or calls for 2022

I’ve bought the dip, not jus DIS but other stocks too. I’m buying puts on DIS in case management continues to be incompetent. And I’m totally serious about a lawsuit. It’s funny watching people laugh at my post but shareholders are feeling the pain. I anticipated the dividend move but many people rely on dividends and they’re being cut by companies across the market. If they don’t reopen soon, they will be forced to continue cutting CAPEX. If people truly cared about the company, they would want the parks to reopen.

 

[Getachew]

Yes, but DHS has wide open walking areas that will be easier for them to keep people separated without causing as many human traffic jams as they try to get through the areas of bottle neck from narrow walkways in Epcot. They're also going to control the crowd numbers no matter which park it is.

I do believe the reason for them opening Epcot last (if that's how it will go down) is due to construction, but not because of social distancing can't be done there, but because they know MK, AK, and DHS are usually much more busy than EC, for obvious reasons. More money to be made.

 

[WDWTrojan]

I’ve bought the dip, not jus DIS but other stocks too. I’m buying puts on DIS in case management continues to be incompetent. And I’m totally serious about a lawsuit. It’s funny watching people laugh at my post but shareholders are feeling the pain. I anticipated the dividend move but many people rely on dividends and they’re being cut by companies across the market. If they don’t reopen soon, they will be forced to continue cutting CAPEX. If people truly cared about the company, they would want the parks to reopen.

They have access to the top data from the top scientists in the world. They want to open as soon as it is feasible and safe, but opening prior to knowing they can do so safely, securely and without jeopardizing the health of their guests or employees. Opening too soon, only to have to possible close again should an out break occur, would do more damage to their brand in the long-run.

As Chapek said, one of the reasons they are confident in a rebound of the cruise business is that consumers trust Disney more over their competitors. It’s the same at the parks. An outbreak at the parks, in any meaningful way, would do more damage to their long-term viability than staying closed an extra couple months.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

They have access to the top data from the top scientists in the world. They want to open as soon as it is feasible and safe, but opening prior to knowing they can do so safely, securely and without jeopardizing the health of their guests or employees. Opening too soon, only to have to possible close again should an out break occur, would do more damage to their brand in the long-run.

As Chapek said, one of the reasons they are confident in a rebound of the cruise business is that consumers trust Disney more over their competitors. It’s the same at the parks. An outbreak at the parks, in any meaningful way, would do more damage to their long-term viability than staying closed an extra couple months.

That’s a strong argument but I don’t think their calculations factor in all the side effects of being closed for so long. I think reopening in phases would mitigate those side effects. Limiting spread but also giving them the cash flow they need to continue to make investments and compete.

 

[WDW Pro]

I've actually defended you at times from those overly critical.

You made it sound like many of the things you mentioned were going to be in the Q2 session, and they weren't.

Feel free to quote where I made it "sound" that way. I simply gave information behind the scenes to give background going into the call.

By talking about how unwieldy it would be to temp check so many people, I thought you were arguing Disney wouldn't do it. My apologies, I see that you were just talking about what a big pain they'd be.

No worries. It's requires significant infrastructure and work hours, plus it's probably ineffective. But it's an optics thing and they're going to do it.

By talking about how masks just won't work, you made it sound like Disney wouldn't require masks. Although, my apologies, by re-reading, I see that you're just saying they'd be problematic for the Summer.

No worries. 98 degrees in direct Florida sun with a mask on presents an issue that isn't present in Shanghai. I think they top out at around 90 on their hottest summer days. I could be wrong about that though.

You make a great argument for why Disney would never do those things without then making that conclusion.

Disney doesn't always do the things that I think are obvious.

The LucasFilm drama, however, was completely unnecessary for a "watch out for" post. Even if things were as bad as you say (which I don't, I think you're being spinned by anti-KK within the company), it would never be something to watch out for at a Quarterly call.

I wanted to have the info out there in case questions were raised and answered about Star Wars films and series. I want people to know that there are two distinct camps vying for the direction of the brand from within Disney. And I'm particularly interested in how one camp would seem to be easily squelched, yet continues to exert itself over the other vision time and time again... with tactics that are very effective.

 

[havoc315]

It's the same logic and line of reasoning why so many of these type suites are reversed upon appeal. The jury gets the law wrong because they follow the emotion of it rather than the law.


Except knowingly selling contaminated food is illegal. Which goes far beyond negligence. BTW you ever notice those disclaimers about eating raw or undercooked meat in menus? I wonder why they are there...



Your hyperbole is very good. Always read the fine print. If reasonably presented, ignorance is not an excuse. Look at all the warning signs around you, on products, that we've become so conditioned to we simply ignore it. We've become numb to it. If a reasonable (subjective because let's face it not everyone pays attention to everything)attempt is made, it becomes very difficult to say that the public wasn't warned.

As someone who actually does those lawsuits and appeals.... I assure you that you’re simply incorrect.

 

[Jae Sea]

Feel free to quote where I made it "sound" that way. I simply gave information behind the scenes to give background going into the call.



No worries. It's requires significant infrastructure and work hours, plus it's probably ineffective. But it's an optics thing and they're going to do it.



No worries. 98 degrees in direct Florida sun with a mask on presents an issue that isn't present in Shanghai. I think they top out at around 90 on their hottest summer days. I could be wrong about that though.



Disney doesn't always do the things that I think are obvious.



I wanted to have the info out there in case questions were raised and answered about Star Wars films and series. I want people to know that there are two distinct camps vying for the direction of the brand from within Disney. And I'm particularly interested in how one camp would seem to be easily squelched, yet continues to exert itself over the other vision time and time again... with tactics that are very effective.

As soon as he said "you're being spinned by anti-KK within the company ", he proved you correct.

 

[MisterPenguin]

As soon as he said "you're being spinned by anti-KK within the company ", he proved you correct.

People can be against another person in a company because they disagree on 'vision' or 'direction.'

Doesn't mean someone's getting fired or that rumors of hair-on-fire meetings are true.

People can be playing contacts, media, and social influencers outside the company to get their way inside the company.

Let's say I'm a mid-level exec at Disney or LucasFilm who doesn't like the current SW 'direction.' I have no power in the company to do anything about it. My suggestions aren't taken... I know, I'll 'spill' to the fandom menace that KK is in hot water and she's "out the door." Hopefully, the reaction of "true fans" will be noticed by the Bobs, and they'll really can her!!

And KK is still not fired. Disproving all the "out the door" rumors. How many times, year after year, does one have to hear that she's being fired before they realize they're being played by their sources? Yes, that means there is a faction within the corporation, just like most corporations have factions. Doesn't mean they get their way or what they're leaking is completely (or even remotely) true.

 

[Jae Sea]

People can be against another person in a company because they disagree on 'vision' or 'direction.'

Doesn't mean someone's getting fired or that rumors of hair-on-fire meetings are true.

People can be playing contacts, media, and social influencers outside the company to get their way inside the company.

Let's say I'm a mid-level exec at Disney or LucasFilm who doesn't like the current SW 'direction.' I have no power in the company to do anything about it. My suggestions aren't taken... I know, I'll 'spill' to the fandom menace that KK is in hot water and she's "out the door." Hopefully, the reaction of "true fans" will be noticed by the Bobs, and they'll really can her!!

And KK is still not fired. Disproving all the "out the door" rumors. How many times, year after year, does one have to hear that she's being fired before they realize they're being played by their sources? Yes, that means there is a faction within the corporation, just like most corporations have factions. Doesn't mean they get their way or what they're leaking is completely (or even remotely) true.

First you proved him right and now you're contradicting yourself in an attempt to walk it back.

 

[MisterPenguin]

First you proved him right and now you're contradicting yourself in an attempt to walk it back.

LOL at your reading comprehension.

 

[Jae Sea]

LOL at your reading comprehension.

Lol at your shilling for Kathleen Kennedy. I hope she sees it.

 

[brianstl]

That's a fact that hasn't been established as an actual fact.

Mulan the animation didn't do well in China because of cultural shortsightedness.

Mulan the live action was made specifically to play to Chinese sensibilities. That's why it's not a beat by beat, song by song remake of the animated version. Disney is anxious to make big bucks in China.

This rumor is the exact opposite of the story of the Mulan remake. Which makes it quite laughable.

The biggest problem for the original Mulan 20+ years ago in China was the Chinese government forced Disney to delay the Chinese opening of the movie so long that everyone that wanted to see the movie had already seen it at home by watching a pirated copy of the movie.

 

[bryanfze55]

I’ve bought the dip, not jus DIS but other stocks too. I’m buying puts on DIS in case management continues to be incompetent. And I’m totally serious about a lawsuit. It’s funny watching people laugh at my post but shareholders are feeling the pain. I anticipated the dividend move but many people rely on dividends and they’re being cut by companies across the market. If they don’t reopen soon, they will be forced to continue cutting CAPEX. If people truly cared about the company, they would want the parks to reopen.

Even if you have a legal basis for a lawsuit, you certainly don’t have a moral one. It’s not a breach of fiduciary duty to go above and beyond in mitigating the spread of the worst pandemic we’ve had in 100 years.

I’m all for talking about a measured and careful reopening. But maybe you can forget about dividends for one year while we try to navigate through a pandemic? I mean, we all have investments to worry about. I don’t like the hit mine have taken. But we have a greater calling right now. Your choice of verbiage is just not a great look.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Lol at your shilling for Kathleen Kennedy. I hope she sees it.

I hope so because I haven't gotten paid yet!

 

[WDW Pro]

People can be against another person in a company because they disagree on 'vision' or 'direction.'

Doesn't mean someone's getting fired or that rumors of hair-on-fire meetings are true.

People can be playing contacts, media, and social influencers outside the company to get their way inside the company.

Let's say I'm a mid-level exec at Disney or LucasFilm who doesn't like the current SW 'direction.' I have no power in the company to do anything about it. My suggestions aren't taken... I know, I'll 'spill' to the fandom menace that KK is in hot water and she's "out the door." Hopefully, the reaction of "true fans" will be noticed by the Bobs, and they'll really can her!!

And KK is still not fired. Disproving all the "out the door" rumors. How many times, year after year, does one have to hear that she's being fired before they realize they're being played by their sources? Yes, that means there is a faction within the corporation, just like most corporations have factions. Doesn't mean they get their way or what they're leaking is completely (or even remotely) true.

Feel free to quote where I've said Kennedy is being fired. I've repeatedly said she's winning. Put the strawman to bed.

 

[Imagineer45]

If they wait until August to reopen the parks, I will start a class action lawsuit with any fellow shareholders willing to join me. They have a fiduciary responsibility to reopen as soon as it is safe and possible. I understand a month or two closure. But no DL for the rest of the year? Ridiculous!

I’ve bought the dip, not jus DIS but other stocks too. I’m buying puts on DIS in case management continues to be incompetent. And I’m totally serious about a lawsuit. It’s funny watching people laugh at my post but shareholders are feeling the pain. I anticipated the dividend move but many people rely on dividends and they’re being cut by companies across the market. If they don’t reopen soon, they will be forced to continue cutting CAPEX. If people truly cared about the company, they would want the parks to reopen.

If state governments are involved with the opening dates, the lawsuit would have no merit. Disney has not announced an opening date for either park, and the states have not announced their exact recommended dates yet either, but it is no coincidence that WDW is planning on opening before DLR and Florida is opening before California. It currently looks like Florida will recommend an opening sometime in June and WDW is shooting for July 4th. That is a reasonable timeframe for Disney to say, "We wanted to open as soon as the government would allow and necessary procedures were in place to comply with the new regulation." DLR would only be closed for the remainder of the year because Newsom has hinted he may not permit large gatherings until 2021, in which case Disney would dismiss the argument of not acting in the best interest of the shareholders because they were legally not allowed to open the parks.

I've heard two things on that. So, there are either two plans being mulled or one is wrong... sorry, but that's just the way this is for me to answer.

1. MK opens using Secure Circuit protocol (that's 100%). Then, Disney opens Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios once they're prepared to do so.
2. MK opens using Secure Circuit protocol (that's 100%). Then Disney opens only Animal Kingdom as a second park, with Hollywood Studios opening later before Epcot.

The rumor about DHS opening first was never true and was an internet rumor brought about by a fluff piece.

This seems to mostly align with the order of the parks in decreasing total daily attraction capacity (MK, DHS, DAK, Epcot I believe) which would help spread out guests.

It's the same logic and line of reasoning why so many of these type suites are reversed upon appeal. The jury gets the law wrong because they follow the emotion of it rather than the law.

Except knowingly selling contaminated food is illegal. Which goes far beyond negligence. BTW you ever notice those disclaimers about eating raw or undercooked meat in menus? I wonder why they are there...

Your hyperbole is very good. Always read the fine print. If reasonably presented, ignorance is not an excuse. Look at all the warning signs around you, on products, that we've become so conditioned to we simply ignore it. We've become numb to it. If a reasonable (subjective because let's face it not everyone pays attention to everything)attempt is made, it becomes very difficult to say that the public wasn't warned.

As someone who actually does those lawsuits and appeals.... I assure you that you’re simply incorrect.

It really depends on the state and the quality of the lawyers on both sides. The warnings usually do a good job of limiting liability, but they often do not eliminate it entirely.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Feel free to quote where I've said Kennedy is being fired. I've repeatedly said she's winning. Put the strawman to bed.

OK...

Kathleen stocked Lucasfilm with partisan loyalists for the past many years, and nobody wants to go in there and clean it up. You're just asking to be backstabbed and ridiculed if you take the job.

Sounds like your position is that she should be fired or would be fired if it wasn't for a posse of employees with sharp tongues.

The much better news for Disney is that The Mandalorian is being very well received and gives them a blueprint moving forward in the soon-to-be post-Kathleen Kennedy Lucasfilm,

Is that just a reference to her soon-to-be... retirement?

2) Lucasfilm is moving into dangerous territory for profitability and Chapek does not have the acumen or the gravitas to remove Kathleen Kennedy... Iger did.

Again, sounds like you think Iger should have fired her, and Chapek somehow can't. But it's still a call for her to be fired if Chapek could assert himself?

 

[havoc315]

If state governments are involved with the opening dates, the lawsuit would have no merit. Disney has not announced an opening date for either park, and the states have not announced their exact recommended dates yet either, but it is no coincidence that WDW is planning on opening before DLR and Florida is opening before California. It currently looks like Florida will recommend an opening sometime in June and WDW is shooting for July 4th. That is a reasonable timeframe for Disney to say, "We wanted to open as soon as the government would allow and necessary procedures were in place to comply with the new regulation." DLR would only be closed for the remainder of the year because Newsom has hinted he may not permit large gatherings until 2021, in which case Disney would dismiss the argument of not acting in the best interest of the shareholders because they were legally not allowed to open the parks.


This seems to mostly align with the order of the parks in decreasing total daily attraction capacity (MK, DHS, DAK, Epcot I believe) which would help spread out guests.



It really depends on the state and the quality of the lawyers on both sides. The warnings usually do a good job of limiting liability, but they often do not eliminate it entirely.

no. Duty to warn is an almost separate duty, distinct from ordinary negligence. In fact, I just won a duty to warn case a couple months ago.

Duty to warn is advising of unavoidable risks. But if a risk was reasonably avoidable, then warning doesn’t shield from liability.
This is first year of law school basics.

 

[Obobru]

Well this post turned out to be a load of BS stab in the dark "predictions" disguised as being in the know.

I had my hopes pinned on stocking up on some more non expiry tickets, you crushed my Disney pixy dust filled dreams with your poor guesses.