What to Watch Going Into the Earnings Report

[Tinkwings]

The last set of cancellation emails to guests was for those having reservations at WDW resorts thru May 23. They seem to go week by week. When they are cancelled, they are offered a promotion to rebook between June 1 and Sept 30. Unless something is announced today, I'd watch social media for these type of announcements of reservation cancellations to see who they are keeping out of the resorts.

I noticed a few minutes ago that park hours/show times are listed beginning May 24th for WDW and beyond into June....but nothing is listed for DLR as of right now.

 

[monothingie]

Oh wow look at this, the doom and gloomer site picks up yet again on another one of @WDW Pro posts. Funny how they always pick up on this specific member, despite being wrong many times, and never feature any other insiders on this forum of which there are many.

When Will Disneyland, Walt Disney World and Disney Cruise Line Reopen?- Well Disney Doesn't Know

Today is the earnings call for Disney's Q2 and we got the usual "positive spin" that we've come to expect. Basically, we're losing money, but we're Disney so

www.piratesandprincesses.net

Just waiting for the Youtube video which should drop tonight.

 

[havoc315]

You can't try a Florida case using California regs.

When reading this I just keep coming back to the California prop 65 warnings that have become so common place on so many consumer products today.

If all this stuff is known by the state of California to cause cancer, how can a corporation sell them and not be at all negligent or liable for doing so, even though California has told us that it is dangerous. Except that's what the warning label is for. It's the same reason why Disney warns people with medical conditions not to ride certain attractions.

If Disney provides adequate and reasonable warning about potential health dangers to all guests and have operations that comply with best practices and local regulation, it becomes extremely difficult to prevail in a suit. That being said, it's very easy for anyone to file a lawsuit, which probably is the most problematic part (PR wise anyway).

You're not trying it based on regulations. Negligence is a common law definition.
So the standard a jury would be asked if, "what would a reasonable theme park operator do"
State regulations would be irrelevant.
You can be fully compliant with regulations, and still held liable for negligence. (though violation of a regulation becomes per se negligence).

Warnings and waivers are not typically enough to waive liability. I can't open a burger stand and decide to sell spoiled meat and simply have a little sign that says, "You accept the risk that your burger may have E.Coli" (Even apart from regulations, that would be obvious negligence).
Every business operator has an inherent unwaivable duty to provide for the public safety.

Of course, there are things that are inherently dangerous, even after all precautions are taken. And that's where you get into the "duty to warn." That's where we get the ride warnings that the blinking lights can cause seizures, etc.
For something like Coronavirus, if you really wanted to rely upon "assumption of risk," you'd need far more than a sign. Probably loud announcements as you enter the park, "We are unable to control the spread of Coronavirus. By entering the park, you accept that there is a high likelihood that you may become infected with Coronavirus, with a 0.5-2% risk of death." Have that playing over and over on the loud speakers. Then have them sign and notarize a statement that they appreciate the risk of Covid-19 and accept that they risk hospitalization, respiratory failure and death.

Not a great way to enter the happiest place on earth.

Now, maybe you don't like that the law operates that way -- But it simply is how the law operates.

 

[brianstl]

Oh wow look at this, the doom and gloomer site picks up yet again on another one of @WDW Pro posts. Funny how they always pick up on this specific member, despite being wrong many times, and never feature any other insiders on this forum of which there are many.

RUMOR: Disney Planning for Walt Disney World to Remain Closed for the Rest of 2020?

Could Disney be planning for the possibility of Walt Disney World being closed for the rest of 2020? There's a rumor that Disney is looking into a "worst case

www.piratesandprincesses.net

Just waiting for the Youtube video which should drop tonight.

That isn't what @WDW Pro predicted.

 

[Brad Bishop]

You're not trying it based on regulations. Negligence is a common law definition.
So the standard a jury would be asked if, "what would a reasonable theme park operator do"
State regulations would be irrelevant.
You can be fully compliant with regulations, and still held liable for negligence. (though violation of a regulation becomes per se negligence).

Warnings and waivers are not typically enough to waive liability. I can't open a burger stand and decide to sell spoiled meat and simply have a little sign that says, "You accept the risk that your burger may have E.Coli" (Even apart from regulations, that would be obvious negligence).
Every business operator has an inherent unwaivable duty to provide for the public safety.

Of course, there are things that are inherently dangerous, even after all precautions are taken. And that's where you get into the "duty to warn." That's where we get the ride warnings that the blinking lights can cause seizures, etc.
For something like Coronavirus, if you really wanted to rely upon "assumption of risk," you'd need far more than a sign. Probably loud announcements as you enter the park, "We are unable to control the spread of Coronavirus. By entering the park, you accept that there is a high likelihood that you may become infected with Coronavirus, with a 0.5-2% risk of death." Have that playing over and over on the loud speakers. Then have them sign and notarize a statement that they appreciate the risk of Covid-19 and accept that they risk hospitalization, respiratory failure and death.

Not a great way to enter the happiest place on earth.

Now, maybe you don't like that the law operates that way -- But it simply is how the law operates.

The way I'd take it if I were on the jury.

Had Disney done nothing and waited until government told them to shut down (and then re-open again) then I'd think, "Ok.. Government is taking the responsibility for our possible infections."

Disney (again, and others) shutting down on their own and then opening up on their own when they've deemed it as "safe" takes me to: Disney is taking responsibility for our safety.

Again, sort of like the tram door deal. People made it for decades in open-sided trams and on trams without doors. That, in and of itself, tells me, "You're responsible for not being an idiot on a tram. If you fall off a tram, it's your fault." Disney closing everything in and making it safe puts me in the realm of, "Disney did this to keep you safe. If one of their tram doors fails and you fall out, it's THEIR (Disney's) responsibility because they took the reins of responsibility/safety."

I'm no lawyer. I'm "average guy" who is very much on the "personal freedom/responsibility" side of things. I'm just saying that when you do certain things you're saying, "No no... We know better.. You just sit there and be pretty.. We have you covered.." - and in that moment you can have a shift of responsibility/liability.

 

[TrojanUSC]

I noticed a few minutes ago that park hours/show times are listed beginning May 24th for WDW and beyond into June....but nothing is listed for DLR as of right now.

It’s been this way for a while. They are incrementally moving it back week by week.

 

[monothingie]

You're not trying it based on regulations. Negligence is a common law definition.
So the standard a jury would be asked if, "what would a reasonable theme park operator do"
State regulations would be irrelevant.
You can be fully compliant with regulations, and still held liable for negligence. (though violation of a regulation becomes per se negligence).

It's the same logic and line of reasoning why so many of these type suites are reversed upon appeal. The jury gets the law wrong because they follow the emotion of it rather than the law.

Warnings and waivers are not typically enough to waive liability. I can't open a burger stand and decide to sell spoiled meat and simply have a little sign that says, "You accept the risk that your burger may have E.Coli" (Even apart from regulations, that would be obvious negligence).
Every business operator has an inherent unwaivable duty to provide for the public safety.

Except knowingly selling contaminated food is illegal. Which goes far beyond negligence. BTW you ever notice those disclaimers about eating raw or undercooked meat in menus? I wonder why they are there...

Of course, there are things that are inherently dangerous, even after all precautions are taken. And that's where you get into the "duty to warn." That's where we get the ride warnings that the blinking lights can cause seizures, etc.
For something like Coronavirus, if you really wanted to rely upon "assumption of risk," you'd need far more than a sign. Probably loud announcements as you enter the park, "We are unable to control the spread of Coronavirus. By entering the park, you accept that there is a high likelihood that you may become infected with Coronavirus, with a 0.5-2% risk of death." Have that playing over and over on the loud speakers. Then have them sign and notarize a statement that they appreciate the risk of Covid-19 and accept that they risk hospitalization, respiratory failure and death

Your hyperbole is very good. Always read the fine print. If reasonably presented, ignorance is not an excuse. Look at all the warning signs around you, on products, that we've become so conditioned to we simply ignore it. We've become numb to it. If a reasonable (subjective because let's face it not everyone pays attention to everything)attempt is made, it becomes very difficult to say that the public wasn't warned.

 

[monothingie]

That isn't what @WDW Pro predicted.

Sorry wrong copy/paste

When Will Disneyland, Walt Disney World and Disney Cruise Line Reopen?- Well Disney Doesn't Know

Today is the earnings call for Disney's Q2 and we got the usual "positive spin" that we've come to expect. Basically, we're losing money, but we're Disney so

www.piratesandprincesses.net

 

[MisterPenguin]

The fact that they think even a Mulan film is too risky shows how reserved this supposedly creative company has become.

That's a fact that hasn't been established as an actual fact.

Mulan the animation didn't do well in China because of cultural shortsightedness.

Mulan the live action was made specifically to play to Chinese sensibilities. That's why it's not a beat by beat, song by song remake of the animated version. Disney is anxious to make big bucks in China.

This rumor is the exact opposite of the story of the Mulan remake. Which makes it quite laughable.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Tuesday is the big day for the Disney company in which they will feature what is likely to be their worst ever earnings report. Going into that earnings report, here are some things to keep an eye on for the company going forward.

1. Several people have reached out to me to let me know that there are major discussions taking place, including such key figures as Zenia Mucha and Alan Horn, about possibly moving Mulan's theatrical release out another year. It's current placement is soon enough that they could reliably move it in under the guise of lower box office revenues due to COVID-19, while the real reason is that Disney is caught in a real PR nightmare potentially. There are a number of people at Disney who feel that Mulan could become a political wedge release in the current atmosphere, which is a conflict many would like to avoid. They fear that social media and cable news, among other entities, could make viewership of the film a partisan issue, as well as a concern that the Chinese Communist Party may be found to have acted in more sinister ways just prior to a release of a film that could be seen as pro-CCP by some demographics. Articles such as this (https://www.theguardian.com/film/20...ney-is-bowing-to-china-anti-democratic-agenda) could be tame in comparison to how the movie will be perceived at release. For more info on how this film has already been used by the CCP, refer to: https://variety.com/2019/film/news/...-hong-kong-twitter-facebook-china-1203309089/ .

In the Q2 report, Mulan got a shout out as their first big tentpole since the lockdowns. Sounds like a lot of confidence and no controversy about it.

2. The ongoing battle over Lucasfilm's direction continues, with Kathleen Kennedy and Jon Favreau factions fighting over the studio. It's fairly well known at this point that the beef between Kennedy and Iger is real, given that Iger essentially ignored her in his memoirs. It's also hard to lose sight of how many projects Kennedy has seen fail at Lucasfilm (Star Wars Resistance, Star Wars Forces of Destiny, Star Wars Galaxy of Adventures, Solo, and the Sequel Trilogy falling in revenues with each release), while Favreau seemingly struck it out of the park with The Mandalorian -- a series for Disney+ that even Iger was giving creative suggestions for and taking notes on each episode. Buried in the lead of Waititi directing a new Star Wars film (which Kennedy has no creative control over) was confirmation of the "female-centric" Star Wars series being helmed by former Weinstein personal assistant Headland. But be ready, because it looks almost certain that a new narrative is being pushed by Kennedy loyalists in Lucasfilm... and that narrative is that Headland was ONLY a personal assistant for one year, and that being against her or her series is misogynistic, mean, and unfair. Again, this is a conflict that Disney doesn't want; they don't want conflict over a hire that lavishly praised Weinstein, deleted hundreds of tweets at the same time as a leak about her project, and may know dirt on Iger and Eisner. With all that said, Kennedy has essentially gotten her way time after time, outplaying Iger even if she has been hammered by segments of the fans, mostly by hiring and developing strong loyalty within her brand.

No mention of LucasFilm in the Q2. Don't know why anyone would think there would be. Just a shout out for the the SW stuff that dropped on May 4 on D+

3. Disney is still looking at an August reopening for Magic Kingdom and the MK resorts. There are some important data sets that are being monitored. First, Disney is watching early states with populous areas to see if there is a spike in cases. States that are being closely monitored include Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Colorado, and Texas. Second, there's an important statistic that Disney is actively researching: chance of transmission for mask-to-mask. Currently, the number Disney has is 1.5%. That is, with a standard (not N95 or higher) mask, the chance of two adults transmitting the virus while both wear a mask is 1.5%. That's currently too high to reopen the parks safely. At that rate, you have a 1/67 chance of contracting the virus when in close proximity with others, and a theme park features far more than 67 close interactions in a single day, even if social distancing and 50% capacity is active. If just one person is contagious then, you have a super spread situation at MK. Another serious issue to reopening the parks prior to August is that children present a logistical problem to keeping masks on in an efficient manner. And even if you do wear masks all day with no problems, Alannah Hall-Smith has been adamant that putting guests in July/August heat with a requirement to wear masks is a recipe for disaster. What are you going to do if you have people passing out from heat while wearing a mask? What are you going to do if the temperature is 98 and you can't let people in many of your indoor areas? So just know that while the target might be August, there's a real chance that this goes longer.

Chapek confirmed in the Q2 meeting that the parks will open when they can. And for Shanghai, which will open on May 11, masks are required for employees and guests.

5. One of the concepts being mulled to get Disney Parks bringing in revenue again is to bring back the non-expiration tickets. If you enjoyed stacking 10 day park hoppers with extras before and then adding the non-expiration option to them... you might be doing it again once the parks reopen. That's one of the tactics Iger has really liked for making people feel "safe" to purchase tickets. And speaking of safe...

In the Q2 call, the exact opposite of non-expiring tickets was mentioned as a possibility and what Shanghai will be using: dated tickets. [Also, in Shanghai, those with passes will have to schedule attendance so as not to inadvertently create a crowding problem.]

6. Temperature checks at Magic Kingdom and MK resorts are going to be time consuming. They're working on planning for 40,000 - 70,000 temperature checks per day when they first reopen when you consider all the security checkpoints that will now include a medical screening. This is another Iger mandate, even though it's well known that this is a PR bandaid. With the understanding that COVID-19 has a high rate of asymptomatic transmission, this is just a "feel safe" measure.

Shanghai will have mandatory temperature checks. They're only starting with less than 30% of attendance (less than 24K people).

 

[WDW Pro]

In the Q2 report, Mulan got a shout out as their first big tentpole since the lockdowns. Sounds like a lot of confidence and no controversy about it.

What do you want them to say? "Yeah, we've got a new movie coming out to probably a quarter of normal theaters in July. It's really controversial, because we basically bent the knee to communist Chinese officials in developing it. We're really unconfident and think it's going to suck."

C'mon.

No mention of LucasFilm in the Q2. Don't know why anyone would think there would be. Just a shout out for the the SW stuff that dropped on May 4 on D+

Yep.

Chapek confirmed in the Q2 meeting that the parks will open when they can. And for Shanghai, which will open on May 11, masks are required for employees and guests.

Pretty sure I'm the first person to announce that was the plan: required masks for cast AND guests.

In the Q2 call, the exact opposite of non-expiring tickets was mentioned as a possibility and what Shanghai will be using: dated tickets. [Also, in Shanghai, those with passes will have to schedule attendance so as not to inadvertently create a crowding problem.]

Domestic parks work very differently from international parks, especially parks in China. Expect to see non-expiring tickets return to domestic parks (and possibly DLP), with required check-ins (reservations for attendance) in place.

Shanghai will have mandatory temperature checks. They're only starting with less than 30% of attendance (less than 24K people).

Called both of these all the way back on March 24th, at a time when it was crazy to think this way (and you can see the responses to verify). 25K is the plan for MK in WDW at reopen.

Really, I don't know why you keep trying to be overly critical of me.

 

[Getachew]

What do you want them to say? "Yeah, we've got a new movie coming out to probably a quarter of normal theaters in July. It's really controversial, because we basically bent the knee to communist Chinese officials in developing it. We're really unconfident and think it's going to suck."

C'mon.





Yep.






Pretty sure I'm the first person to announce that was the plan: required masks for cast AND guests.





Domestic parks work very differently from international parks, especially parks in China. Expect to see non-expiring tickets return to domestic parks (and possibly DLP), with required check-ins (reservations for attendance) in place.







Called both of these all the way back on March 24th, at a time when it was crazy to think this way (and you can see the responses to verify). 25K is the plan for MK in WDW at reopen.

Really, I don't know why you keep trying to be overly critical of me.

Question, let's say the MK opening is successful (whenever that is, if that's how they will go about it), do all 3 of the other parks follow after, or is it one by one?

 

[Jae Sea]

The boss switched Kathleen and I when I got promoted! I'm a big kid now!

You deserve it more than her anyway. You helped the parks grow, she's run a multi-billion $ franchise, once believed to be bulletproof, into the ground in only a handful of years. Business schools in the future should teach Kathleen Kennedy's time as LucasFail President as a "what not to do" lesson. TLJ was the biggest mistake in the history of Hollywood. You had the best set-up you could possibly ask for with 40 years of built up anticipation by the most loyal fanbase ever....and instead of giving them their hero, they turned him into a coward. SW toy sales are tanking. I wonder how many Grand Master Luke figures would have sold and still would be selling instead? Everyone associated with the decision to do that with Luke should have been fired already. The goal was to try and tap into a younger generation, but what you did instead was turned off an entire generation of kids who's parents have now been turned off of Star Wars after 40 years and will no longer help turn their kids into fans. I watched TFA multiple times with my kids in the theaters. We went to TLJ once and didn't even bother watching RoS in the theaters. We've since seen it at home and my kids were bored, as was I. No need to see that in the theaters after TLJ broke the franchise. We no longer were invested in the new characters and the blatant attempt to salvage the character of Luke in RoS was too little too late.

 

[WDW Pro]

Question, let's say the MK opening is successful (whenever that is, if that's how they will go about it), do all 3 of the other parks follow after, or is it one by one?

I've heard two things on that. So, there are either two plans being mulled or one is wrong... sorry, but that's just the way this is for me to answer.

1. MK opens using Secure Circuit protocol (that's 100%). Then, Disney opens Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios once they're prepared to do so.
2. MK opens using Secure Circuit protocol (that's 100%). Then Disney opens only Animal Kingdom as a second park, with Hollywood Studios opening later before Epcot.

The rumor about DHS opening first was never true and was an internet rumor brought about by a fluff piece.

 

[Getachew]

I've heard two things on that. So, there are either two plans being mulled or one is wrong... sorry, but that's just the way this is for me to answer.

1. MK opens using Secure Circuit protocol (that's 100%). Then, Disney opens Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios once they're prepared to do so.
2. MK opens using Secure Circuit protocol (that's 100%). Then Disney opens only Animal Kingdom as a second park, with Hollywood Studios opening later before Epcot.

The rumor about DHS opening first was never true and was an internet rumor brought about by a fluff piece.

And Epcot???

Edit: Saw you mentioned it. I guess Epcot looks to be last.

 

[Jae Sea]

And Epcot???

Edit: Saw you mentioned it. I guess Epcot looks to be last.

With so much under construction at Epcot, they may as well wait for that one to be last.

 

[Getachew]

With so much under construction at Epcot, they may as well wait for that one to be last.

Plenty of people still go though. And in terms of social distancing, it's arguably the best one to practice it.

 

[Jae Sea]

Plenty of people still go though. And in terms of social distancing, it's arguably the best one to practice it.

Not necessarily because a lot of the walkways are very tight now with all of the construction walls up.

 

[Getachew]

Not necessarily because a lot of the walkways are very tight now with all of the construction walls up.

Still less congested than DHS.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Really, I don't know why you keep trying to be overly critical of me.

I've actually defended you at times from those overly critical.

You made it sound like many of the things you mentioned were going to be in the Q2 session, and they weren't.

By talking about how unwieldy it would be to temp check so many people, I thought you were arguing Disney wouldn't do it. My apologies, I see that you were just talking about what a big pain they'd be.

By talking about how masks just won't work, you made it sound like Disney wouldn't require masks. Although, my apologies, by re-reading, I see that you're just saying they'd be problematic for the Summer.

You make a great argument for why Disney would never do those things without then making that conclusion.

The LucasFilm drama, however, was completely unnecessary for a "watch out for" post. Even if things were as bad as you say (which I don't, I think you're being spinned by anti-KK within the company), it would never be something to watch out for at a Quarterly call.