What to Watch Going Into the Earnings Report

[Obobru]

Just to add something.

The vast majority of people at Disney are currently furloughed. Those that are not are few in number, and are not likely to be sharing information at this time. And even if they did, things are changing on an almost hourly basis. So same advice as before, don't read too much into anything you read right now. It is all in a state of flux.

I love this coded message for "the original poster is talking out of backside"

 

[WDW Pro]

OK...



Sounds like your position is that she should be fired or would be fired if it wasn't for a posse of employees with sharp tongues.




Is that just a reference to her soon-to-be... retirement?




Again, sounds like you think Iger should have fired her, and Chapek somehow can't. But it's still a call for her to be fired if Chapek could assert himself?

You're changing the goal posts. I asked for you to post where I said Kennedy would be fired. You've responded with three posts... one talks about how hard it is to fire Kennedy and why, two talks about a post Kennedy Lucasfilm (her contract ends in a year or so), and the third talks about how Chapek lacks the gravitas to fire her if so need (which was rendered moot since Iger essentially is running the company).

Again, feel free to spend an hour going back through my posts to find that imaginary time I said Kennedy would be fired.

 

[The Grand Inquisitor]

Tuesday is the big day for the Disney company in which they will feature what is likely to be their worst ever earnings report. Going into that earnings report, here are some things to keep an eye on for the company going forward.

1. Several people have reached out to me to let me know that there are major discussions taking place, including such key figures as Zenia Mucha and Alan Horn, about possibly moving Mulan's theatrical release out another year. It's current placement is soon enough that they could reliably move it in under the guise of lower box office revenues due to COVID-19, while the real reason is that Disney is caught in a real PR nightmare potentially. There are a number of people at Disney who feel that Mulan could become a political wedge release in the current atmosphere, which is a conflict many would like to avoid. They fear that social media and cable news, among other entities, could make viewership of the film a partisan issue, as well as a concern that the Chinese Communist Party may be found to have acted in more sinister ways just prior to a release of a film that could be seen as pro-CCP by some demographics. Articles such as this (https://www.theguardian.com/film/20...ney-is-bowing-to-china-anti-democratic-agenda) could be tame in comparison to how the movie will be perceived at release. For more info on how this film has already been used by the CCP, refer to: https://variety.com/2019/film/news/...-hong-kong-twitter-facebook-china-1203309089/ .

2. The ongoing battle over Lucasfilm's direction continues, with Kathleen Kennedy and Jon Favreau factions fighting over the studio. It's fairly well known at this point that the beef between Kennedy and Iger is real, given that Iger essentially ignored her in his memoirs. It's also hard to lose sight of how many projects Kennedy has seen fail at Lucasfilm (Star Wars Resistance, Star Wars Forces of Destiny, Star Wars Galaxy of Adventures, Solo, and the Sequel Trilogy falling in revenues with each release), while Favreau seemingly struck it out of the park with The Mandalorian -- a series for Disney+ that even Iger was giving creative suggestions for and taking notes on each episode. Buried in the lead of Waititi directing a new Star Wars film (which Kennedy has no creative control over) was confirmation of the "female-centric" Star Wars series being helmed by former Weinstein personal assistant Headland. But be ready, because it looks almost certain that a new narrative is being pushed by Kennedy loyalists in Lucasfilm... and that narrative is that Headland was ONLY a personal assistant for one year, and that being against her or her series is misogynistic, mean, and unfair. Again, this is a conflict that Disney doesn't want; they don't want conflict over a hire that lavishly praised Weinstein, deleted hundreds of tweets at the same time as a leak about her project, and may know dirt on Iger and Eisner. With all that said, Kennedy has essentially gotten her way time after time, outplaying Iger even if she has been hammered by segments of the fans, mostly by hiring and developing strong loyalty within her brand.

3. Disney is still looking at an August reopening for Magic Kingdom and the MK resorts. There are some important data sets that are being monitored. First, Disney is watching early states with populous areas to see if there is a spike in cases. States that are being closely monitored include Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Colorado, and Texas. Second, there's an important statistic that Disney is actively researching: chance of transmission for mask-to-mask. Currently, the number Disney has is 1.5%. That is, with a standard (not N95 or higher) mask, the chance of two adults transmitting the virus while both wear a mask is 1.5%. That's currently too high to reopen the parks safely. At that rate, you have a 1/67 chance of contracting the virus when in close proximity with others, and a theme park features far more than 67 close interactions in a single day, even if social distancing and 50% capacity is active. If just one person is contagious then, you have a super spread situation at MK. Another serious issue to reopening the parks prior to August is that children present a logistical problem to keeping masks on in an efficient manner. And even if you do wear masks all day with no problems, Alannah Hall-Smith has been adamant that putting guests in July/August heat with a requirement to wear masks is a recipe for disaster. What are you going to do if you have people passing out from heat while wearing a mask? What are you going to do if the temperature is 98 and you can't let people in many of your indoor areas? So just know that while the target might be August, there's a real chance that this goes longer.

4. Disneyland is essentially closed for the remainder of 2020. Maybe it can reopen in November or December, but all the information I'm getting from contacts and friends says that's just not the case. Again, things can change with COVID-19 and the information we have on it... but as of now, it doesn't look good for getting Disneyland safely open in the next six months. Whereas WDW is receiving maintenance and upkeep at an acceptable show scale, Disneyland itself is a different story. It will require major attention before it will be at an acceptable level of care for reopening to guests. All attractions at DLR are powered down completely and are not receiving ANY maintenance. Pathways inside DLR are not being cleaned very often, and are rather unsightly in places with bird droppings. There's actually a serious rat issue, and I don't mean Mickey... not joking. All food items have been removed at DLR from EVERYWHERE to combat the issue, and the radically few cast members still working at DLR have to bring their food and dispose of it according to protocol.

5. One of the concepts being mulled to get Disney Parks bringing in revenue again is to bring back the non-expiration tickets. If you enjoyed stacking 10 day park hoppers with extras before and then adding the non-expiration option to them... you might be doing it again once the parks reopen. That's one of the tactics Iger has really liked for making people feel "safe" to purchase tickets. And speaking of safe...

6. Temperature checks at Magic Kingdom and MK resorts are going to be time consuming. They're working on planning for 40,000 - 70,000 temperature checks per day when they first reopen when you consider all the security checkpoints that will now include a medical screening. This is another Iger mandate, even though it's well known that this is a PR bandaid. With the understanding that COVID-19 has a high rate of asymptomatic transmission, this is just a "feel safe" measure.

Wow this is a lot to unpack. I really hope Kathleen Kennedy gets the boot and Jon Favreau takes over Lucasfilm. This is going to be interesting for Disney moving forward. I really hope a lot of the projects at the parks wont be cut.

 

[Getachew]

Well this post turned out to be a load of BS stab in the dark "predictions" disguised as being in the know.

I had my hopes pinned on stocking up on some more non expiry tickets, you crushed my Disney pixy dust filled dreams with your poor guesses.

Was it? What exactly did the OP get wrong? Nothing has really been said yet, so it's up in the air.

 

[Tavernacle12]

You're changing the goal posts. I asked for you to post where I said Kennedy would be fired. You've responded with three posts... one talks about how hard it is to fire Kennedy and why, two talks about a post Kennedy Lucasfilm (her contract ends in a year or so), and the third talks about how Chapek lacks the gravitas to fire her if so need (which was rendered moot since Iger essentially is running the company).

Again, feel free to spend an hour going back through my posts to find that imaginary time I said Kennedy would be fired.

So you didn't say she would be fired, just implied she should be and anticipated she would not be kept on.

 

[WDW Pro]

So you didn't say she would be fired, just implied she should be and anticipated she would not be kept on.

So, I have to be very specific here, because my account is now followed by YouTubers, journalists, etc, and I don't want to be misunderstood.

I have not believed that Kennedy would be fired. If we're discussing her being fired based on the merits of her work product, I would say she should have been let go. If we're discussing her being fired based on the fallout from such a move, then I don't know, because I don't know all the details around what she knows, what she would do, who would replace her, etc, etc. If she could be let go in a way that didn't damage Disney, then there's no doubt Jon Favreau would do a better job -- and that's not based whatsoever on gender. But I 100% don't think you could let Kathleen Kennedy go without massive fallout... I just don't know how big the fallout would be.

I don't have a prediction for what will happen at the end of her current contract. There are too many variables, and frankly the world is really weird right now even down to shopping for groceries, little alone what will happen at film studios. I know there are two distinct viewpoints for how Star Wars should continue, and I know she represents one that I don't think will be nearly as successful. I also think that her viewpoint for Star Wars is antithetical to Lucas' viewpoint, and I think her goal from the time she took over was to make a name for herself beyond being a sidekick to two famous directors. I think to her, that included transforming the mythos around one director's baby. How much of that is pride v ideology, I don't know.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Hate to spoil the narrative, but DL is being looked after just fine. Landscaping looks fine.

 

[Tavernacle12]

I also think that her viewpoint for Star Wars is antithetical to Lucas' viewpoint, and I think her goal from the time she took over was to make a name for herself beyond being a sidekick to two famous directors. I think to her, that included transforming the mythos around one director's baby. How much of that is pride v ideology, I don't know.

I'm curious what you mean by this but I totally understand if you don't want to answer it, since I assume (possibly incorrectly) it at least partially involves the thorny issue of Lucas' original ST treatment and/or the old EU.

 

[BrianLo]

Investor Relations - Stock Information, Events, Reports, Financial Information, Shareholder Information - The Walt Disney Company

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This basically spells out how afraid of Mulan controversy Disney allegedly was...

 

[WDW Pro]

Hate to spoil the narrative, but DL is being looked after just fine. Landscaping looks fine.

I was informed by someone else that things improved about mid April. Someone by the name of Westsider in the internets discussed it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Did DL furlough their cats?

 

[choco choco]

The criticism of Kathleen Kennedy here are weird. Do you guys realize her record as a movie producer is just bonkers? It's among the all-time great, Hall of Fame careers.

She was head of two production studios. Both were widely successful.

The number of great directors who worked with her over the years is stupendous, and Lucas handpicked her as his successor.

The supposed missteps started happening when she had to work under Bob Iger, which just goes to show who really knows and understands film and who doesn't.

Probably a lot of filmmakers (the actual talent) are riding and dying with Kennedy, who they know is a true film aficionado, and will give Lucasfilm a cold shoulder once whoever is in charge of Disney tries to get rid of her.

 

[WDW Pro]

Did DL furlough their cats?

Stopped stocking their feeders for a while. Ducks too.

 

[WDW Pro]

The criticism of Kathleen Kennedy here are weird. Do you guys realize her record as a movie producer is just bonkers? It's among the all-time great, Hall of Fame careers.

She was head of two production studios. Both were widely successful.

The number of great directors who worked with her over the years is stupendous, and Lucas handpicked her as his successor.

The supposed missteps started happening when she had to work under Bob Iger, which just goes to show who really knows and understands film and who doesn't.

Probably a lot of filmmakers (the actual talent) are riding and dying with Kennedy, who they know is a true film aficionado, and will give Lucasfilm a cold shoulder once whoever is in charge of Disney tries to get rid of her.

And there is the other viewpoint crystallized perfectly.

 

[Ldno]

Q3 will worse, q2 was only Two weeks into closure, that will be truly catastrophic and a truly great time to buy stock from them once they rebounce back.

 

[Imagineer45]

Its pride and as a woman with experience with that kind of female that Kennedy is its resentment. Look her resume’ has been ok as long as she was working with Eastwood, Lucas, Spielberg and Milius. But her offerings with her husband (Noises Off was the first) have been awful. He as a producer (Frank Marshall) has been successful
on his own. Her offerings? Let’s look at them piece by piece at LFL: TFA nostalgia magnet, Harrison Ford, Carrie Fisher and Mark Hamill. Its weakness? A very poorly written NH 2.0 and in the long lens of history pretty bad over all. Lets be honest, the Galaxy went from limitless and visionary to small, dull and bitter. Then we get her pet Johnson’s dumpster fire, and then the poorly cast awful Soylo and the end? The sewage leak, TROS. Each film lost money, each film drove fans away, each film said to me at least this woman put her agenda (feminism, sjw politics and relevant garbage) ahead of what made Star Wars unique. The timelessness, the eternal humanity with in the stories, the romance, heroism, good versus evil. She undid the Force itself, the spirituality of the saga. Pure nihilism. She fundamentally undid all of that because she’s never been a fan, doesn’t understand Star Wars and narcissistically made it really about her legacy. As Frasier Crane once said to Niles Copernicus called and it is true the universe does not revolve around you!

From what I have heard, and feel free to chime in if others have heard different, a lot of the problems with the sequel trilogy stem from her not intervening enough, which could stem from her previously working with world-class directors who need to be left to their own devices. JJ Abrams wrote a preliminary script/outline/draft for 8 and 9, but she gave Rian Johnson permission to do whatever he wanted for 8, throwing everything into chaos. A Kevin Feige type figure guiding the overall plot to keep everything cohesive was needed, and she did not deliver. On the other hand, she was too involved with the anthology films, firing excellent directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller from Solo for excessive script deviations and organizing expensive reshoots and rewrites for Rogue One (which, in her defense, may or may not have helped the film, it is hard to definitively know).

As a side note, only Solo lost money, although basically all of the films other than TFA and Rogue One underperformed at the box office.

 

[Getachew]

Looking back at this thread with DS opening May 20th (at least third party vendors), it's interesting that the OP never mentioned anything about it. Wonder if he or she knew this was going to happen.

 

[JustAFan]

Thanks for the summary, WDWPro. I'm sorry if this has already been answered, but I didn't see it with a quick scan of the 10 pages. If I comprehend correctly, WDW is in better shape than DL. I wonder why. Poor management? Something environmental? Other concerns?

 

[jinx8402]

Thanks for the summary, WDWPro. I'm sorry if this has already been answered, but I didn't see it with a quick scan of the 10 pages. If I comprehend correctly, WDW is in better shape than DL. I wonder why. Poor management? Something environmental? Other concerns?

If you're asking about why Disneyland may not open for the rest of 2020 vs WDW opening sometime this year, it is mostly due to how the governments in Florida and California are managing the re-openings of their economy. Nothing to do with Disney's management or environmental issues.

 

[peter11435]

Thanks for the summary, WDWPro. I'm sorry if this has already been answered, but I didn't see it with a quick scan of the 10 pages. If I comprehend correctly, WDW is in better shape than DL. I wonder why. Poor management? Something environmental? Other concerns?

There’s plenty of photo evidence from locals, helicopters, and even photos direct from Disney that show that the Disneyland resort is being maintained just like Walt Disney World at the moment.