What to Watch Going Into the Earnings Report

[cmwade77]

The comments about Disneyland simply aren't true, I have seen the maintenance and construction crews working with my own eyes when I have driven by (cranes, etc.), Recent flyovers show the paths aren't unsightly. Same goes for pictures released by Disney from within the parks. Landscaping is quite clearly in full swing as well based on these flyovers and what I have been able to see in person.

People I know that work there are able to use one of the cast cafeterias, although it does have a limited menu due to how few CMs are working.

Given I have personally witnessed much of this, I question everything the OP has posted.

 

[Doberge]

The suits will undoubtedly happen but they'll at best be frivolous. High hurdles to prove include 1) no virus before Disney, particularly with long incubation period, 2) person got virus at Disney and not from, say, a third party transportation system to make a dinner reservation, or from the airport, etc, 3) person got virus by some sort of negligent action by Disney, 4) damages caused by a virus and not by other underlying conditions, 5) actual damages, 6) that there is no assumption of risk, etc.

 

[Jeffxz]

WDW has always been a super spreader of disease. Everyone who goes to WDW knows the risks and it should be put in the terms of purchasing a ticket that WDW is not responsible for any virus you get while there. As long as WDW is constantly cleaning everything, offers hand sanitizer, enforces proper social distancing protocols and creates a waiver, they won’t be at fault.

Having worked closely on this side of things from the theme park side of things (handling issues with Risk Management + guests), I don't think I've ever encountered a situation around getting a virus from a theme park that was actionable. Usually, the issues center more around injuries that occur at the park. I think the worst has been around food poisoning and those are usually resolved easily. I'd be surprised if there's many cases of lawsuits filed over catching an illness/virus at a theme park and I can't recall ever seeing any.

I would agree that liability for catching the virus in the parks would probably be limited. It would be very hard to prove, and if Disney makes reasonable mitigation efforts I don't see how they could be blamed.

What would Disney’s responsibility be if someone became sick during a stay at one of their resorts? If someone with a week reservation gets sick on day 6, would it be Disney’s responsibility to allow that guest or guests to stay quarantined in their hotel room for 2 weeks? Would Disney comp these extra nights? If the guest reports to Disney staff that they are sick, Disney would have to take reasonable measures to keep them away from other guests to avoid liability . No bussing, no magical express, no Minnie van. Would they have a responsibility to stop a sick guest from getting on a plane? If the guest can’t afford to pay for hotel/meals for a 14 day quarantine, would Disney cover this or throw them out? What if it spreads throughout a resort? Could you imagine the bad PR that comes from the headline “100+ guests at Disney’s grand Floridian test positive for coronavirus “?

Springs seems reasonable to open, Maybe the mk or other parks open mid-late summer but I can’t see how the resorts open until this is under control.

 

[brianstl]

The only people who would have added sensitivity around China are the ones who think that their government intentionally unleashed an uncontrollable deadly virus in their own country to, um, kill Americans.

Disney hasn’t exactly been catering to that crowd.

This isn't exactly correct. The problems with China aren't people believing they intentionally unleashed the virus on their own people. The problems for the Chinese government are related to what they did in the first 8 weeks of their outbreak when it came to the intentional withholding of information and the intentional misinformation they disseminated to the rest of the world about the virus's severity and how it spread. Throw in that they restricted the travel of people from Wuhan to others areas of China while they did nothing to stop residents of Wuhan from traveling internationally.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

This isn't exactly correct. The problems with China aren't people believing they intentionally unleashed the virus on their own people. The problems for the Chinese government are related to what they did in the first 8 weeks of their outbreak when it came to the intentional withholding of information and the intentional misinformation they disseminated to the rest of the world about the virus's severity and how it spread. Throw in that they restricted the travel of people from Wuhan to others areas of China while they did nothing to stop residents of Wuhan from traveling internationally.

And you didn't even include halting exports of PPE or mass-importing of PPE at the same time they were sharing false information...ensuring that their own population would have what they need, but that the rest of the world would be left high and dry.

 

[VaderTron]

The rides being completely powered off is concerning to me. I wonder if some of them will not function correctly going forward.

Think of it like a car, you wouldn't want to leave it sitting for months on end, and if you do it may not start.

Any ride vehicles that have ball bearings in them must move to keep themselves lubricated. While a short shutdown doesn't have much effect, the lubricant can start to break down faster after a prolonged stationary status with buildup of dust and other particles in the air adding to the issues. Get ready for another Big Thunder Mountain Railroad disaster! If that happens, you won't see that getting relatively swept under the rug and forgotten about in the current climate of social media and frenzied reactions to disasters.

Not to be forgotten are the gaskets on faucets and toilets that will dry out when not in use. Some dried gaskets will crack, leak, or worse. Unless they are systematically flushing toilets and turning on faucets there will be a thousands of repairs/replacements that need to be made. These things are made to be used, not to sit idle.

 

[brianstl]

Yeah, the idea that Mulan would be pushed back to 2021 seems entirely plausible, but the framing of that point by the OP seems laughable. I mean delaying because "Disney is caught in a real PR nightmare potentially"? Um, okay.

At worse, there might be some box office suppression from some folks expressing anti-China sentiment. And since Disney does cater to the "wholesome family entertainment" crowd that in part might include some of the more right wing xenophobic types in this country, okay maybe distancing it from COVID-19 could be viewed as a good idea in terms of box office receipts. But it is not like they'd be condemned by the media/public at large for simply making a movie based in China - especially since it's a remake of an already established/well liked film.

The problem Mulan has it is perceived by many to be a joint product of the Chinese government and Disney. That is not a good product to selling for the foreseeable future. It isn't just a backlash against the Chinese government in the US Disney is concerned about. It is the backlash against the Chinese government that is building in Asia, Europe and Australia. Backlash that could grow exponentially as governments/intelligence agencies around the world release more information.

 

[BigThunderMatt]

You really hit me hard with my July WDW reservation and my DL reservation. At least you didn't destroy my DCL Dec cruise...Yet

I mean that's just unwarranted optimism at this point.

 

[VaderTron]

1.5% works out to 1 in 67. Not 1 in 75.

Thank you Mr. Bean Counter! Now our entire viewpoint of the situation has changed irrevocably. Your value here has risen to that of a calculator. Congratulations.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

I would agree that liability for catching the virus in the parks would probably be limited. It would be very hard to prove, and if Disney makes reasonable mitigation efforts I don't see how they could be blamed.

What would Disney’s responsibility be if someone became sick during a stay at one of their resorts? If someone with a week reservation gets sick on day 6, would it be Disney’s responsibility to allow that guest or guests to stay quarantined in their hotel room for 2 weeks? Would Disney comp these extra nights? If the guest reports to Disney staff that they are sick, Disney would have to take reasonable measures to keep them away from other guests to avoid liability . No bussing, no magical express, no Minnie van. Would they have a responsibility to stop a sick guest from getting on a plane? If the guest can’t afford to pay for hotel/meals for a 14 day quarantine, would Disney cover this or throw them out? What if it spreads throughout a resort? Could you imagine the bad PR that comes from the headline “100+ guests at Disney’s grand Floridian test positive for coronavirus “?

Springs seems reasonable to open, Maybe the mk or other parks open mid-late summer but I can’t see how the resorts open until this is under control.

Reopen the parks at least. Work out the details with the resorts later.

 

[VaderTron]

I know it isn't gonna happen, but I hope they try and give an estimated reopening timeframe for when the parks will reopen. If they did, maybe it would help stocks a little?

As was said before...the next earnings call will be a bloodbath. That's when the stock will really dive. We haven't reached the valley yet.

 

[Imagineer45]

It seems as if Disney will dictate when WDW will open and the Governor of California will dictate when DLR opens.

1. You can't just talk about the things at LucasFilm that failed (or wasn't as big a blockbuster as they hoped because it only made $1.3 billion instead of $2 billion ) and lay them at Kennedy's feet without also the successes: Clone Wars, Rebels, Rogue One, Mandalorian.

The Clone Wars and Rebels were almost entirely Dave Filoni, Rogue One was a financial success but an absolute mess behind the scenes (extensive reshoots, overriding the director, etc.), and the Mandalorian was most under Jon Favreau. KK has been the driving force behind the movies, which have been the primary concern for Lucasfilm. It seems as if she over-intervened in Solo and gave Rian Johnson too much leeway in TLJ.

3. You paint a beef between Kennedy and Iger. But the only outward facing sign of that beef is that Iger doesn't talk about her in his memoir? That's weak. Compare that to:

• Iger on a quarterly call took the blame for Solo
• Iger appears with Kennedy for smiling photo ops with Kennedy for the opening of Star Wars Land as the Fandom Menace is proclaiming she's being fired.
• The leaked story of Leslye Headland was supposed to be the flashpoint of a showdown between the Bobs and KK... according to *you*, and yet, within a week, Disney is announcing the Headland project.
  • If you think the Bobs couldn't just simply crush it if they didn't want it... you're mad. This is the same Bob Iger who got rid of several execs who were supposed to replace him.
  • If you think the Bob's are afraid of Headland's background, remember, Iger is the one who arranged for Lasseter's leave and retirement.
• Obviously, in any studio there will be creative differences and maneuverings to do what one wants to do (Marvel had its share of fired directors). But inflating that into an all out war without any real proof is just deranged wishful thinking of the Fandom Menace. Remember what happens when you *presume* and *surmise* something is the case in the face of contrary proof?

As CEO, Iger has to take the blame for Solo. If he were to call out anyone else, he would publically show turmoil in the company. Ditto goes for the photo ops. I think the idea of an all-out war between Bob x2 and KK is probably a bit over the top, but it is a pretty well-known fact that Lucasfilm is underperforming so denying any tension is probably unreasonable.

5. Which is more likely: KK is outplaying her powerful boss for years and years, a boss who has fired execs and studio heads; OR... the fandom menace is seeing just a phantom menace?

6. KK is still in charge of LucasFilm. If she really did and is the cause of all the things you said, she really would have been fired. Since she ain't been fired after all this time... you're the one not understanding the dynamics. Stop trusting the stories that 'insiders' who don't like KK are telling you. They're spinning you.

I am not sure if we know the full picture of what is happening at Lucasfilm. Would firing KK result in a large portion of Lucasfilm being extremely upset? Would they also leave? Do they have a replacement in line willing to accept the position? How would George Lucas react because she is his protege? He is no longer the owner, but his word carries weight among fans. Would she need to receive a large golden parachute to go? Should she be fired is a different question than if she can be fired.

 

[brianstl]

1. better masks
2. Lower infection rates to start.

If the risk of mask to mask infection is 1.5%.. and 1/50 guests are walking in infection... that’s going to be an awful lot of spread.
But if only 1/10,000 guests are walking in as a carrier... combined with masks, that keep further spread very low.

I think that study is really overstating the risk of mask to mask transmission in the parks. We know at least one person was infected in the parks when the parks were absolutely packed and no one was wearing masks. Common sense tells us that there were far more than one infected guest at the park that day. Yet, no outbreak was traced back to WDW. If mask to mask transmission in the parks was that high, then there should be a sizable outbreak traced backed to that time when no one was wearing masks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My guess would be some realization by scientists that a larger proportion of the population has already been infects and thereby has anti-bodies AND that reinfection is not a widespread occurrence.

The physics of two-ply of shirting fabric can’t change, but our collective understanding of the virus’ vitality and infection rates could.

...or the exact opposite.

1. better masks
2. Lower infection rates to start.

If the risk of mask to mask infection is 1.5%.. and 1/50 guests are walking in infection... that’s going to be an awful lot of spread.
But if only 1/10,000 guests are walking in as a carrier... combined with masks, that keep further spread very low.

Exactly

WDW has always been a super spreader of disease. Everyone who goes to WDW knows the risks and it should be put in the terms of purchasing a ticket that WDW is not responsible for any virus you get while there. As long as WDW is constantly cleaning everything, offers hand sanitizer, enforces proper social distancing protocols and creates a waiver, they won’t be at fault.

Stop with the comparisons to normal things....

I get it: you want your Disney. Everything you have said on any of these threads gets back to that immovable object.

Got it.

If only that was true. Unfortunately, that's not how it works. (As a civil defense attorney, if it actually worked that way, I'd be out of work!)

T H A N K YOU!!

...it’s continues to be an exercise in insanity for anyone to believe that Disney is going to take anything beyond the minimum risks to open. I get the impression that people are so desperate for their churro...or have no sense of worldly matters...that they think they’ll take legal risks - not to mention PR which is huge for them - and rush into this to bring in less than profitable amounts of revenue.

 

[CastAStone]

Thank you Mr. Bean Counter! Now our entire viewpoint of the situation has changed irrevocably. Your value here has risen to that of a calculator. Congratulations.

You’re welcome.

 

[icc2515]

Reopen the parks at least. Work out the details with the resorts later.

I don't know that Disney is really interested in opening the park without the resorts. Who is going to go? Florida residents with annual passes. Well those people are not bringing in much new money. Sure, a few snacks and quick service meals maybe. Maybe people that were going to stay at Disney could rent a hotel room outside of Disney instead, to go to the parks. I'm sure Disney really wants that to happen.

Resorts are where the money is at. The parks are only there to fill hotel rooms. Guest in hotel rooms buy tickets, expensive tickets, they eat at restaurants and buy alcoholic drinks. Those MK resorts bring in $500+ per night on top of everything else. When this whole thing started, they closed the parks and left the resorts and Disney Springs open. I think their knee jerk reaction was to leave the resorts open indefinitely.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Hopefully, there’s a transcript soon afterwards.

Transcript usually takes close to a week to come out.

In this thread, I'll be summarizing the content of the call and we can discuss the content of the call without the baggage of rumors...

Disney’s Q2 (Jan/Feb/Mar) FY 2020 Earnings Results Webcast on Tuesday, May 5, 4:30ET

Live audio will appear here: https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disneys-q2-fy20-earnings-results-webcast/

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Reopen the parks at least. Work out the details with the resorts later.

Makes no sense...not one bit

 

[brb1006]

Transcript usually takes close to a week to come out.

In this thread, I'll be summarizing the content of the call and we can discuss the content of the call without the baggage of rumors...

Disney’s Q2 (Jan/Feb/Mar) FY 2020 Earnings Results Webcast on Tuesday, May 5, 4:30ET

Live audio will appear here: https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disneys-q2-fy20-earnings-results-webcast/

forums.wdwmagic.com

Thanks MisterPenguin

 

[WDW Pro]

Just to add something.

The vast majority of people at Disney are currently furloughed. Those that are not are few in number, and are not likely to be sharing information at this time. And even if they did, things are changing on an almost hourly basis. So same advice as before, don't read too much into anything you read right now. It is all in a state of flux.

Changed my mind about how to answer this. Edit is to protect sources.

The comments about Disneyland simply aren't true, I have seen the maintenance and construction crews working with my own eyes when I have driven by (cranes, etc.), Recent flyovers show the paths aren't unsightly. Same goes for pictures released by Disney from within the parks. Landscaping is quite clearly in full swing as well based on these flyovers and what I have been able to see in person.

People I know that work there are able to use one of the cast cafeterias, although it does have a limited menu due to how few CMs are working.

Given I have personally witnessed much of this, I question everything the OP has posted.

Construction is not the same as maintenance, and you wouldn't be able to see maintenance occurring on attractions unless they were cycling the vehicles. Flyovers aren't going to depict bird poop, as we're not talking about a bird-pocalypse in which they're laying down tons and tons of excrement. C'mon, seriously. Disney also isn't going to take photos and post them of walkways that are looking less than show ready. Landscaping is absolutely not in full swing... it can't even legally be in full swing. Landscaping is a skeleton crew at the moment that keeps current plants trimmed, but are not even allowed to plant anything new.

If a cast cafeteria is open, it's just been reopened. The only people at DLR are:
1. Skeleton Security team
2. Handfull of Circle D cast
3. Skeleton Horticulture team
4. Small custodial team
5. VPs and up may be on the site

There aren't any food services people on site... so who exactly is making the food for the less-than-200 people in the resort at any given time? Ops and Facilities cast aren't on site, there are no guest related cast on site, etc, etc. All stores and storerooms are locked down.

I can give you links to all of this, but it would be competing sites, so I'll refrain.