Tuesday is the big day for the Disney company in which they will feature what is likely to be their worst ever earnings report. Going into that earnings report, here are some things to keep an eye on for the company going forward.
1. Several people have reached out to me to let me know that there are major discussions taking place, including such key figures as Zenia Mucha and Alan Horn, about possibly moving Mulan's theatrical release out another year. It's current placement is soon enough that they could reliably move it in under the guise of lower box office revenues due to COVID-19, while the real reason is that Disney is caught in a real PR nightmare potentially. There are a number of people at Disney who feel that Mulan could become a political wedge release in the current atmosphere, which is a conflict many would like to avoid. They fear that social media and cable news, among other entities, could make viewership of the film a partisan issue, as well as a concern that the Chinese Communist Party may be found to have acted in more sinister ways just prior to a release of a film that could be seen as pro-CCP by some demographics. Articles such as this (
https://www.theguardian.com/film/20...ney-is-bowing-to-china-anti-democratic-agenda) could be tame in comparison to how the movie will be perceived at release. For more info on how this film has already been used by the CCP, refer to:
https://variety.com/2019/film/news/...-hong-kong-twitter-facebook-china-1203309089/ .
2. The ongoing battle over Lucasfilm's direction continues, with Kathleen Kennedy and Jon Favreau factions fighting over the studio. It's fairly well known at this point that the beef between Kennedy and Iger is real, given that Iger essentially ignored her in his memoirs. It's also hard to lose sight of how many projects Kennedy has seen fail at Lucasfilm (Star Wars Resistance, Star Wars Forces of Destiny, Star Wars Galaxy of Adventures, Solo, and the Sequel Trilogy falling in revenues with each release), while Favreau seemingly struck it out of the park with The Mandalorian -- a series for Disney+ that even Iger was giving creative suggestions for and taking notes on each episode. Buried in the lead of Waititi directing a new Star Wars film (which Kennedy has no creative control over) was confirmation of the "female-centric" Star Wars series being helmed by former Weinstein personal assistant Headland. But be ready, because it looks almost certain that a new narrative is being pushed by Kennedy loyalists in Lucasfilm... and that narrative is that Headland was ONLY a personal assistant for one year, and that being against her or her series is misogynistic, mean, and unfair. Again, this is a conflict that Disney doesn't want; they don't want conflict over a hire that lavishly praised Weinstein, deleted hundreds of tweets at the same time as a leak about her project, and may know dirt on Iger and Eisner. With all that said, Kennedy has essentially gotten her way time after time, outplaying Iger even if she has been hammered by segments of the fans, mostly by hiring and developing strong loyalty within her brand.
3. Disney is still looking at an August reopening for Magic Kingdom and the MK resorts. There are some important data sets that are being monitored. First, Disney is watching early states with populous areas to see if there is a spike in cases. States that are being closely monitored include Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Colorado, and Texas. Second, there's an important statistic that Disney is actively researching: chance of transmission for mask-to-mask. Currently, the number Disney has is 1.5%. That is, with a standard (not N95 or higher) mask, the chance of two adults transmitting the virus while both wear a mask is 1.5%. That's currently too high to reopen the parks safely. At that rate, you have a 1/75 chance of contracting the virus when in close proximity with others, and a theme park features far more than 75 close interactions in a single day, even if social distancing and 50% capacity is active. If just one person is contagious then, you have a super spread situation at MK. Another serious issue to reopening the parks prior to August is that children present a logistical problem to keeping masks on in an efficient manner. And even if you do wear masks all day with no problems, Alannah Hall-Smith has been adamant that putting guests in July/August heat with a requirement to wear masks is a recipe for disaster. What are you going to do if you have people passing out from heat while wearing a mask? What are you going to do if the temperature is 98 and you can't let people in many of your indoor areas? So just know that while the target might be August, there's a real chance that this goes longer.
4. Disneyland is essentially closed for the remainder of 2020. Maybe it can reopen in November or December, but all the information I'm getting from contacts and friends says that's just not the case. Again, things can change with COVID-19 and the information we have on it... but as of now, it doesn't look good for getting Disneyland safely open in the next six months. Whereas WDW is receiving maintenance and upkeep at an acceptable show scale, Disneyland itself is a different story. It will require major attention before it will be at an acceptable level of care for reopening to guests. All attractions at DLR are powered down completely and are not receiving ANY maintenance. Pathways inside DLR are not being cleaned very often, and are rather unsightly in places with bird droppings. There's actually a serious rat issue, and I don't mean Mickey... not joking. All food items have been removed at DLR from EVERYWHERE to combat the issue, and the radically few cast members still working at DLR have to bring their food and dispose of it according to protocol.
5. One of the concepts being mulled to get Disney Parks bringing in revenue again is to bring back the non-expiration tickets. If you enjoyed stacking 10 day park hoppers with extras before and then adding the non-expiration option to them... you might be doing it again once the parks reopen. That's one of the tactics Iger has really liked for making people feel "safe" to purchase tickets. And speaking of safe...
6. Temperature checks at Magic Kingdom and MK resorts are going to be time consuming. They're working on planning for 40,000 - 70,000 temperature checks per day when they first reopen when you consider all the security checkpoints that will now include a medical screening. This is another Iger mandate, even though it's well known that this is a PR bandaid. With the understanding that COVID-19 has a high rate of asymptomatic transmission, this is just a "feel safe" measure.
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