WDW Resorts Reopening Thread

arich35

Well-Known Member

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
You are sitting to the side of someone and you have a mask on, I think it is okay.
Masks are only 65 - 70% effective at stopping transmission, if you add in distance the combination is much more effective at stopping it. Masks are not magic and it is the combination that is needed to stop the spread. Same for outdoors, it is not magic just physics, stay away from others AND wear a mask
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
You know...

The 15-minute rule is about how likely you'll get COVID from *one person who's contagious* being near you.

It doesn't address at all about how likely you'll get COVID if you're near one person who's contagious for five minutes, and then later on, another person who's contagious for five minutes, and then later on, another person who's contagious for five minutes, and so on...

If the 15-minute rule is about "it's only a small chance"... well, small chances add up if you keep attempting the risky behavior.

Rolling snake eyes is a small chance... for one roll. Roll the dice a hundred times.... snake eyes!! Just because rolling snake eyes is a small chance doesn't mean you're safe from every roll of the dice from hitting snake eyes.

It's not like if the viral load from a short encounter from a contagious person gets cleared from your body instantly because "it's not enough." It's there. And if you keep adding to it through the day with hundreds of encounters... it will get to be "enough."

Breaking distancing rules *purposely* because of the 15 minute rule is.... dumb. And doing it over and over again in the same day is... dangerous... and dumb.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
BTW:

In August, I cancelled my Annual Pass. I cancelled my usual October (Halloween) and December (Christmas) trips. And now, I'm cancelling my February (Arts) trip.

I have no reservations or tickets at this time.
 

TikibirdLand

Well-Known Member
You know...

The 15-minute rule is about how likely you'll get COVID from *one person who's contagious* being near you.

It doesn't address at all about how likely you'll get COVID if you're near one person who's contagious for five minutes, and then later on, another person who's contagious for five minutes, and then later on, another person who's contagious for five minutes, and so on...

If the 15-minute rule is about "it's only a small chance"... well, small chances add up if you keep attempting the risky behavior.

Rolling snake eyes is a small chance... for one roll. Roll the dice a hundred times.... snake eyes!! Just because rolling snake eyes is a small chance doesn't mean you're safe from every roll of the dice from hitting snake eyes.

It's not like if the viral load from a short encounter from a contagious person gets cleared from your body instantly because "it's not enough." It's there. And if you keep adding to it through the day with hundreds of encounters... it will get to be "enough."

Breaking distancing rules *purposely* because of the 15 minute rule is.... dumb. And doing it over and over again in the same day is... dangerous... and dumb.
Rolling Snake Eyes in regular dices is 1/36 chance (1/6 * 1/6).
 

techgeek

Well-Known Member
You know...

The 15-minute rule is about how likely you'll get COVID from *one person who's contagious* being near you.

It doesn't address at all about how likely you'll get COVID if you're near one person who's contagious for five minutes, and then later on, another person who's contagious for five minutes, and then later on, another person who's contagious for five minutes, and so on...

If the 15-minute rule is about "it's only a small chance"... well, small chances add up if you keep attempting the risky behavior.

Rolling snake eyes is a small chance... for one roll. Roll the dice a hundred times.... snake eyes!! Just because rolling snake eyes is a small chance doesn't mean you're safe from every roll of the dice from hitting snake eyes.

It's not like if the viral load from a short encounter from a contagious person gets cleared from your body instantly because "it's not enough." It's there. And if you keep adding to it through the day with hundreds of encounters... it will get to be "enough."

Breaking distancing rules *purposely* because of the 15 minute rule is.... dumb. And doing it over and over again in the same day is... dangerous... and dumb.

Not only all of this... but I would now personally question the 15 minute guidance itself. With the new UK B.1.1.7 strain taking hold, viral load is higher and the virus can spread easier in situations with shorter contact:


Does it spread more easily?​

Yes. Experts now think the new variant is between 50% and 74% more transmissible than other dominant strains, according to a study by the Center for Mathematical Modeling and Infectious Diseases (CMMID) that has not yet been peer-reviewed. The WHO estimates this would tack on 0.4 to the basic reproductive number R, which dictates how many people each infected person would spread the virus to.

Based on models of that growth, the new variant could be responsible for 90% of all new COVID-19 cases in London and East and South England by mid-January, that study found.

Another study from the U.K., published Dec. 27 to medrXiv and also not peer reviewed, found higher viral loads in PCR tests that are negative for the S gene. Testing negative for the S gene means the virus has the 69-70Del mutation and so such S-gene dropouts are thus a proxy for, but not a certain indication of, the samples coming from the B.1.1.7 variant. And a higher viral load makes it easier for the virus to spread.
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
@Magic Feather - Have you heard of Contemporary closing for a refurbishment from April to September of this year? People starting to report being moved, but unsure why. Being moved to Grand Floridian.

thanks!
 

Magic Feather

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
@Magic Feather - Have you heard of Contemporary closing for a refurbishment from April to September of this year? People starting to report being moved, but unsure why. Being moved to Grand Floridian.

thanks!
A Contemporary refurb has been on the table for ages, so it wouldn’t shock me if they used this time to pull the trigger.

That said, I wonder if this could also be about NBA Bubble 2. I’ve been told that resort(s) will be pulled offline to accommodate it instead of using the still closed ones (Pop Century and Port Orleans aren’t really up to snuff). But, the Contemporary, other than the ballrooms, seems like a really odd choice for that.
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
A Contemporary refurb has been on the table for ages, so it wouldn’t shock me if they used this time to pull the trigger.

That said, I wonder if this could also be about NBA Bubble 2. I’ve been told that resort(s) will be pulled offline to accommodate it instead of using the still closed ones (Pop Century and Port Orleans aren’t really up to snuff). But, the Contemporary, other than the ballrooms, seems like a really odd choice for that.

Yes, but I thought the NBA was in February and this refurb is April to September (supposedly).

Who knows! :)
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Yes, but I thought the NBA was in February and this refurb is April to September (supposedly).

Who knows! :)
The NBA season already started but they are already having Covid issues. Maybe they are looking for a bubble for the playoffs which ramp up end of May but they could bring teams in to finish out the regular season a month earlier. The NBA rumor could have some smoke to it.
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
The NBA season already started but they are already having Covid issues. Maybe they are looking for a bubble for the playoffs which ramp up end of May but they could bring teams in to finish out the regular season a month earlier. The NBA rumor could have some smoke to it.

The bubble is happening for something called the G league? Starts Feb 8th and has 18 teams.
 

castlecake2.0

Well-Known Member
A Contemporary refurb has been on the table for ages, so it wouldn’t shock me if they used this time to pull the trigger.

That said, I wonder if this could also be about NBA Bubble 2. I’ve been told that resort(s) will be pulled offline to accommodate it instead of using the still closed ones (Pop Century and Port Orleans aren’t really up to snuff). But, the Contemporary, other than the ballrooms, seems like a really odd choice for that.
Contempo needs a gut job in the main concourse area. It looks like a mall food court. A proper job could make this the flagship resort if they just spend the money and work with 70s/Mary Blair vibe instead of fighting it. Picture a really high end airport terminal in the pan am era... now we’re talking.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Contempo needs a gut job in the main concourse area. It looks like a mall food court. A proper job could make this the flagship resort if they just spend the money and work with 70s/Mary Blair vibe instead of fighting it. Picture a really high end airport terminal in the pan am era... now we’re talking.


I'm gonna tell him.gif



Incredibles.gif
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
The bubble is happening for something called the G league? Starts Feb 8th and has 18 teams.
Makes sense. That’s the minor leagues so those guys may get sent to the All Stars ;)

I wonder if the NBA has continuing issues with Covid if they consider a return to the bubble for their playoffs in May. I think the league was holding out hope that if the vaccine rollout was really fast and effective that they could get fans back in for the playoffs this summer. It doesn’t look very likely but who knows. The bubble worked pretty well last year.
 

tommcp516

Well-Known Member
@Magic Feather - Have you heard of Contemporary closing for a refurbishment from April to September of this year? People starting to report being moved, but unsure why. Being moved to Grand Floridian.

thanks!

Where have you seen this being reported? We have a room booked at CR for the 2nd weekend in April but haven't received any emails from Disney yet?
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
Where have you seen this being reported? We have a room booked at CR for the 2nd weekend in April but haven't received any emails from Disney yet?

On another board, people saying they are being moved already. But as with anything, wait for something official to be announced.
 

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