I never said that it wouldn’t start until 200 million were vaccinated. I said the cases would start coming down before that. I also don’t think that as soon as cases start dropping that restrictions will start to be relaxed. I have no idea what the tipping point will be, but I think the May/June timeframe seems most likely when we could see significant changes. I wouldn’t book a Spring Break trip to WDW right now assuming the restrictions will be gone, but the Summer seems reasonable.
As far as restrictions go I think the first to be relaxed will be ride distancing which allows for park capacity limits to be lifted, then followed by restaurant capacity and distancing requirements and last masks. Not sure where temp checks fall in, probably around the same time as masks. It will be a gradual reduction in restrictions too so not likely a light switch where things are gone. Capacity ramps up as distancing is phased out and once it’s deemed safe the masks go. Much of the sanitizing and hygiene stuff may stick around beyond 2021 until the pandemic is completely behind us.
I don't disagree with any of that. Disney might be "visitable" by March-May, but I wouldn't place bets. By the late Spring/Summer, June-August, I feel like it *should* be fairly safe to travel. Whether all of WDW will be "normal," I don't know and won't make bets. But it is likely to be more normal than now.
If you forced me into a timeline:
Late winter/early Spring (Feb-April):
I suspect first we will start seeing the return of some level of entertainment...
Increasing capacity...
Spring (April-May)
Increasing capacity on some attractions, more restaurants opening, more entertainment.
Increased character interaction, but still no meet and greet with maskless characters
EMH return
Late Spring (May-June)
More hotels opening
Social distancing reduced/ mostly eliminated
More normalized ride capacity
Perhaps partial elimination of masks (please wear masks indoors and on rides, but not required outdoors, for example)
Fastpass return
Things potentially persisting beyond June/July, long term, some becoming permanent:
- No buffets (too many people touching the same stuff, gathering close to strangers)
-Maskless character interactions limited (1 princess in close contact and hugging 2,000 guests in a day? no)
-Park reservations remain in place
-More reliance on contactless payment, mobile ordering (increases efficiency even without a pandemic)
-decreased housekeeping (saves Disney money and reduces a contact between a single cast member and dozens of rooms)
-no babysitting services (especially if kids aren't vaccinated yet, no going to go out of your way to cause a potential problem)
Basically.... restrictions that I can see persisting -- things that place a cast member in sustained close contact, particularly with kids.
I don't think masks will be quite the last to go -- as more and more people get vaccinated, it's going to be harder and harder to enforce wearing of masks. ("Why should I wear a mask?? My whole family is vaccinated!")
But I see strict 6-foot social distancing being reduced/eliminated by late Spring. I could be wrong.