WDW Resorts Reopening Thread

[Dave B]

Not happening anytime soon.

Soon meaning 2021, 2022? Just curious how you are determining this, with the announcement of the opening of three more resorts?

Just curious if it is your opinion of if you know something?

 

[HauntedPirate]

I hope things go back to normal soon, I’ve been missing annual price increases on tickets/food/beverage/merchandise that are well beyond the rate of inflation.

 

[havoc315]

I think you both can be correct. Governments will be eager to “reopen” everything next summer once a vaccine is widely available but that doesn’t mean travel will magically rebound just because it’s possible. That will likely take a few years, but Disney is in a relatively strong position. That nostalgia they’ve been selling for years is really powerful stuff. Hotels far offsite, be damned.

It's very hard to predict. TOTAL travel will take years to rebound. But international travel will remain severely restricted in 2021. Which could have the effect of increasing domestic travel somewhat.

 

[Rteetz]

Soon meaning 2021, 2022? Just curious how you are determining this, with the announcement of the opening of three more resorts?

Just curious if it is your opinion of if you know something?

Port Orleans combined is a HUGE amount of rooms. They aren't even opening all three All-Stars with this showing where the demand is. BC and WL already have their DVC portions open.

I would not expect Port Orleans until late 2021 or 2022 at the earliest. Obviously it all really depends on demand, capacity, and covid.

 

[seascape]

Coming out of this nightmare will be slower than many think. The debt people have now will not be easy to pay. The government is not going to give anyone a break on their property taxes even if they get a federal bailout. The lost wages and increased debt will not help. The travel industry is going to take 5 years to return to 2019 levels, according to both California and New York. That is the result of all the closings and government spending. The taxes all levels are going up and not just on those making over $400,000. The only question is how much. The parks will return with shows and entertainment but the crowds will take years to return. That is good for some of us but not all, especially the Cast Members at Disney and the Team Members at Universal and Seaworld. The massive growth in attendance is over for now.

 

[GoofGoof]

Let's do the math.
The overwhelming majority of deaths/hospitalizations come from the elderly -- they can be fully vaccinated in those first 200m doses.

There are about 250 million American adults in the USA. By March, at least 50-75 million of those adults will have some natural Covid immunity from infection. If you vaccinate another 100 million. That's 150 million to 175 million adults with potentially at least some Covid immunity by March. April/May will being additional vaccinations, possibly from Johnson & Johnson or other vaccines. It's not hard to imagine 70%+ adults having at least some immunity by April/May, which would go a long way towards a level of herd immunity.

As you correctly said: "150M people by June or about 45% of the population"
That's the pessimistic view, that there are no additional vaccines.
But let's assume it is accurate: There are 250 million adults. 150 million to have the vaccine, which is enough for all elderly, people with co-morbidities, etc. Of the 100 million non-vaccinated -- by then, at least 30 million will have some natural immunity from infection.
That's 180 million out of 250 million adults... 72%.... which is the ballpark for herd immunity. And the 28% of adults without immunity will largely be those who simply refused the vaccine, and those who are relatively young and healthy and extremely unlikely to suffer severely from the virus.

I don’t think there is anything to stop anyone who has previously had covid to get a vaccine so there’s likely to be a bit of overlap, particularly for someone who got Covid last Spring and is eligible for the vaccine close to a year later. Also, Rigjt now there are only 16M positive cases. I think there are more that never got tested and had it but I wouldn’t expect those people to skip the vaccine.

I wasn’t trying to be overly pessimistic, those are just the numbers. If another vaccine or 2 comes through and/or we get the additional 100M doses of vaccine from Pfizer sooner it’s very possible every adult who wants one will have a vaccine by June. If none of those things happen it will be a little longer. Kids are still a wildcard. For a place like WDW it may be a little bigger an issue due to the large number of kids and families that visit. While Covid isn’t as severe for kids it’s still an issue and could be a deterrent to parents wanting to bring kids to a place with large crowds.

 

[MrHappy]

Any upticks in spring or early summer are a mirage...because if I know Disney travelers (and I do)...they are booking now thinking everyone one will be getting shots within days/weeks and they don’t believe the caution over logistics...they will be wrong. Cancellations on deck.

As we’ve discussed here - they also will be reckless until somebody they know dies and the next few months will be really bad and erode travel confidence even more.

People are the easiest animals on earth to predict behavior patterns.

I predicted that you’d say this.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I predicted that you’d say this.

And you hit it dead red

 

[Jrb1979]

Coming out of this nightmare will be slower than many think. The debt people have now will not be easy to pay. The government is not going to give anyone a break on their property taxes even if they get a federal bailout. The lost wages and increased debt will not help. The travel industry is going to take 5 years to return to 2019 levels, according to both California and New York. That is the result of all the closings and government spending. The taxes all levels are going up and not just on those making over $400,000. The only question is how much. The parks will return with shows and entertainment but the crowds will take years to return. That is good for some of us but not all, especially the Cast Members at Disney and the Team Members at Universal and Seaworld. The massive growth in attendance is over for now.

Agreed. Many seem to think by fall once the vaccine is available to most of the population things will quickly rebound. Its going to be a long while til travel comes back to normal.

I disagree on all the entertainment coming back. I personally think a lot of the cuts will be permanent. Parades and night time shows will return. Gone are the days of things like Citizens of Hollywood being in the parks.

 

[sbunit]

When can we expect Boardwalk to open up? What's the logistics with that resort that is resulting in no announced date of opening at this time compared to the others?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Let's do the math.
The overwhelming majority of deaths/hospitalizations come from the elderly -- they can be fully vaccinated in those first 200m doses.

There are about 250 million American adults in the USA. By March, at least 50-75 million of those adults will have some natural Covid immunity from infection. If you vaccinate another 100 million. That's 150 million to 175 million adults with potentially at least some Covid immunity by March. April/May will being additional vaccinations, possibly from Johnson & Johnson or other vaccines. It's not hard to imagine 70%+ adults having at least some immunity by April/May, which would go a long way towards a level of herd immunity.

As you correctly said: "150M people by June or about 45% of the population"
That's the pessimistic view, that there are no additional vaccines.
But let's assume it is accurate: There are 250 million adults. 150 million to have the vaccine, which is enough for all elderly, people with co-morbidities, etc. Of the 100 million non-vaccinated -- by then, at least 30 million will have some natural immunity from infection.
That's 180 million out of 250 million adults... 72%.... which is the ballpark for herd immunity. And the 28% of adults without immunity will largely be those who simply refused the vaccine, and those who are relatively young and healthy and extremely unlikely to suffer severely from the virus.

Very optimistic

I think you both can be correct. Governments will be eager to “reopen” everything next summer once a vaccine is widely available but that doesn’t mean travel will magically rebound just because it’s possible. That will likely take a few years, but Disney is in a relatively strong position. That nostalgia they’ve been selling for years is really powerful stuff. Hotels far offsite, be damned.

Very likely

What’s the over/under on how long until the “politics” tag gets added?

It certainly does not have to go that way here. This is straight ops talk

 

[GoofGoof]

When can we expect Boardwalk to open up? What's the logistics with that resort that is resulting in no announced date of opening at this time compared to the others?

The DVC side is open so I don’t think it’s logistics. They decided to do YC first then BC and BW last. I think it makes sense based on BC and YC having a lot of shared services. I think it’s just lack of demand overall and with BC/YC nearby and at a similar price point they can easily defer guests there.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Let's call it cautiously optimistic.
1 -- That 200 million vaccinations (100 million Americans) will indeed be administered by March/April
2 -- That 100+ million more vaccinations may be delivered between March-June. That's pragmatically at least 150 million Americans vaccinated, potentially more. (optimistically, it could be 200 million Americans by June).
3 -- That at least a portion of the non-vaccinated will have some level of infection acquired immunity
4 -- That those most at risk will mostly have been vaccinated.***

*** The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85.

Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications - European Journal of Epidemiology

Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and government reports that...

link.springer.com

Even assuming you never vaccinate anyone under the age of 25 -- That's basically 100 million people under the age of 25, non-vaccinated -- with the low IFR -- If 10% of those under 25 got infected each month, so 10 million infections enough, with an IFR between 0.01% and .002%, you'd be looking at between 6 to 20 deaths per day, nationwide. Now, it will be higher than that -- the vaccines aren't 100% effective, there will be people who choose not to get vaccinated.
But when deaths are below 100 per day, potentially SIGNIFICANTLY below 100 per day, I just don't see Americans supporting many restrictions.

Numbers are numbers...they don’t however account for human error, profit motives and general stubbornness.

I hope it follows along the cosign wave as you wish it...I would love it.

 

[GoofGoof]

Let's call it cautiously optimistic.
1 -- That 200 million vaccinations (100 million Americans) will indeed be administered by March/April
2 -- That 100+ million more vaccinations may be delivered between March-June. That's pragmatically at least 150 million Americans vaccinated, potentially more. (optimistically, it could be 200 million Americans by June).
3 -- That at least a portion of the non-vaccinated will have some level of infection acquired immunity
4 -- That those most at risk will mostly have been vaccinated.***

*** The estimated age-specific IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85.

Assessing the age specificity of infection fatality rates for COVID-19: systematic review, meta-analysis, and public policy implications - European Journal of Epidemiology

Determine age-specific infection fatality rates for COVID-19 to inform public health policies and communications that help protect vulnerable age groups. Studies of COVID-19 prevalence were collected by conducting an online search of published articles, preprints, and government reports that...

link.springer.com

Even assuming you never vaccinate anyone under the age of 25 -- That's basically 100 million people under the age of 25, non-vaccinated -- with the low IFR -- If 10% of those under 25 got infected each month, so 10 million infections enough, with an IFR between 0.01% and .002%, you'd be looking at between 6 to 20 deaths per day, nationwide. Now, it will be higher than that -- the vaccines aren't 100% effective, there will be people who choose not to get vaccinated.
But when deaths are below 100 per day, potentially SIGNIFICANTLY below 100 per day, I just don't see Americans supporting many restrictions.

I don’t think WDW resorts reopening is necessarily impacted heavily on daily deaths. Ignoring the customer demand side for a minute, the main issue Disney has is they can’t fully open park capacity with Covid restrictions in place, specifically distancing on rides and in queues. Once they can relax those requirements they can add ride capacity which allows them to remove restrictions on park capacity. Without that relaxing of restrictions it will be hard to raise park capacity too much and that limits which resorts are open.

On the relaxing of restrictions one of the big issues is keeping CMs safe. Disney committed to the unions that masks and distancing would remain in place for worker safety. I think they need to address that before relaxing those safety measures. Deaths are a part of the overall Covid situation, but I think they are more likely to focus on cases and not deaths. I also think that children play a bigger part for Disney. As a parent with kids I’m not dismissing the risk of my kids getting sick. The percentages may be small but I don’t think that means an easy answer for parents. Disney is in much better shape for their theme park demand if kids are included in the vaccinations sooner than later.

I agree on the timing of the first 100M and second 50 to 100M people getting vaccinated. I think the 2 additional trials (JnJ and Oxford AstraZeneca) expecting to have results in Jan will give us a big window into overall timing. JnJ, if approved only requires 1 dose so could have an additional 100M people vaccinated by May 1. That means enough for everyone who wants a vaccine by June. Once we hit that point it won’t be instant that cases drop to zero, but we should see steady declines and a relaxing of restrictions going into the summer. I think that’s why they are looking to open BC, WL and Poly in the Spring/early summer. Depending on how fast the vaccine rolls out and how fast the impact is seen I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shifting of the additional resorts with no date announced.

 

[havoc315]

Numbers are numbers...they don’t however account for human error, profit motives and general stubbornness.

I hope it follows along the cosign wave as you wish it...I would love it.

And human error, profit motives, general stubbornness -- they all lean towards normalizing a little faster, not slower.

I'm not necessarily commenting on whether we *should* normalize. Just saying we are more likely to normalize a little faster than we should. And vaccinations should reach a level where death rates and hospitalization rates decline DRAMATICALLY, which will prompt normalization.

 

[GoofGoof]

And human error, profit motives, general stubbornness -- they all lean towards normalizing a little faster, not slower.

I'm not necessarily commenting on whether we *should* normalize. Just saying we are more likely to normalize a little faster than we should. And vaccinations should reach a level where death rates and hospitalization rates decline DRAMATICALLY, which will prompt normalization.

If anything I think Disney is going to have the problem of moving too slowly for a lot of people not the other way around. I’ve seen people already talking about a Spring Break trip without restrictions. I think that’s wildly optimistic and based on the resort reopening schedule I think Disney does too.

 

[havoc315]

I don’t think WDW resorts reopening is necessarily impacted heavily on daily deaths. Ignoring the customer demand side for a minute, the main issue Disney has is they can’t fully open park capacity with Covid restrictions in place, specifically distancing on rides and in queues. Once they can relax those requirements they can add ride capacity which allows them to remove restrictions on park capacity. Without that relaxing of restrictions it will be hard to raise park capacity too much and that limits which resorts are open.

On the relaxing of restrictions one of the big issues is keeping CMs safe. Disney committed to the unions that masks and distancing would remain in place for worker safety. I think they need to address that before relaxing those safety measures. Deaths are a part of the overall Covid situation, but I think they are more likely to focus on cases and not deaths. I also think that children play a bigger part for Disney. As a parent with kids I’m not dismissing the risk of my kids getting sick. The percentages may be small but I don’t think that means an easy answer for parents. Disney is in much better shape for their theme park demand if kids are included in the vaccinations sooner than later.

I agree on the timing of the first 100M and second 50 to 100M people getting vaccinated. I think the 2 additional trials (JnJ and Oxford AstraZeneca) expecting to have results in Jan will give us a big window into overall timing. JnJ, if approved only requires 1 dose so could have an additional 100M people vaccinated by May 1. That means enough for everyone who wants a vaccine by June. Once we hit that point it won’t be instant that cases drop to zero, but we should see steady declines and a relaxing of restrictions going into the summer. I think that’s why they are looking to open BC, WL and Poly in the Spring/early summer. Depending on how fast the vaccine rolls out and how fast the impact is seen I wouldn’t be surprised to see a shifting of the additional resorts with no date announced.

It's not like the case declines won't start until there are 200 million vaccinations. Case declines will start very quickly, as those most at risk are vaccinated. By February/March, we will see declines in cases and deaths. By April-June, cases and deaths should be much lower than 2020. And yes, those Covid Disney restrictions will start to be relaxed.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If anything I think Disney is going to have the problem of moving too slowly for a lot of people not the other way around. I’ve seen people already talking about a Spring Break trip without restrictions. I think that’s wildly optimistic and based on the resort reopening schedule I think Disney does too.

But they’re right. Going to Disney parks is a bad idea until further notice. People can spin it, twist it, misdirect and self-Justify a million ways to Sunday. Not a good idea until March at the earliest.

 

[_caleb]

Dr. Fauci said yesterday he believes the general public will have access late March early April. Some other have slightly earlier or slightly later time frames.

Unrelated to the quote

All Star Movies was set to open February 9th but they pushed it back. Clearly Disney has no problem doing such so they could do so again if need be. I do not think it is unreasonable to assume increase capacity and a better handle on the pandemic come summer 2021 when these resorts are opening. As others have noted there are still several resorts that do not have dates.

Yeah, I could see them going back to their early pandemic approach of taking things a couple weeks at a time before cancelling. Basically, if reservations are low, the resort stays closed and those with reservations get rebooked elsewhere or pushed to a later date. Repeat to keep demand up, cancelling two weeks at a time until there are enough reservations made that it looks like the resorts will be full for a while.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Numbers are numbers...they don’t however account for human error, profit motives and general stubbornness.

I hope it follows along the cosign wave as you wish it...I would love it.

1. It's *cosine."

2. A cosine wave initially goes downward. A sine goes up, but then back down.

3. As far as curves go, you'd most likely want to refer to a tangent or parabolic curve.

4. The mathematical model here isn't curves. It's a linear function that is discontinuous as a new batch of vaccines become available and suddenly 'bends' the line further sloping upward.

5. I have spoken.