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WDW Resorts Reopening Thread

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Insane...I want to post this every time the delusional start talking about everything being open/back to normal/money flowing “soon”

More hotels *might* be announced in the near future. But it does appear Disney expects some increase in late spring/early summer, but still far from normal.
With no re-opening for 2 of the value resorts, both Port Orleans resorts, Boardwalk, and AKL... they clearly don't think they will be getting back to 100% by June.

Of course, some of this might just be budget cutting. They don't typically book up most of the summer, particularly without generous discounts. It's probably more profitable to operate 10 hotels at 90% capacity than 12 hotels at 70% capacity, for example. Thus, it's quite possible they keep a couple of the lower demand hotels closed until really needed for Thanksgiving or Christmas 2021.

Selfishly, I have a trip planned for August. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that things will be getting close to normal by then.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
More hotels *might* be announced in the near future. But it does appear Disney expects some increase in late spring/early summer, but still far from normal.
With no re-opening for 2 of the value resorts, both Port Orleans resorts, Boardwalk, and AKL... they clearly don't think they will be getting back to 100% by June.

Of course, some of this might just be budget cutting. They don't typically book up most of the summer, particularly without generous discounts. It's probably more profitable to operate 10 hotels at 90% capacity than 12 hotels at 70% capacity, for example. Thus, it's quite possible they keep a couple of the lower demand hotels closed until really needed for Thanksgiving or Christmas 2021.

Selfishly, I have a trip planned for August. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed that things will be getting close to normal by then.
I agree with this. I think they are also keeping the optionality on the resorts not announced. If things move faster than expected they can bring resorts on line faster, if it’s slower they delay. I would assume they have a loose plan on when they think those resorts will be needed but they aren’t releasing it publicly. It may also be a Wall Street thing. They don’t want to be overly pessimistic if they don’t need to be. If they gave summer or fall dates for the remaining resorts that may signal a later return to “normal” than some analysts are projecting.

One other aspect is customer satisfaction. Disney may be afraid to announce resort reopening dates too soon only to have to delay them. So many people were disappointed in 2020 with cancelled trips. Until they are confident they can loosen some of the distancing on rides, in queues and at restaurants it’s going to be hard to add too much park capacity which also adds to the delay in opening resorts. You don’t want resorts filled with unhappy guests who couldn’t get a park reservation.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I agree with this. I think they are also keeping the optionality on the resorts not announced. If things move faster than expected they can bring resorts on line faster, if it’s slower they delay. I would assume they have a loose plan on when they think those resorts will be needed but they aren’t releasing it publicly. It may also be a Wall Street thing. They don’t want to be overly pessimistic if they don’t need to be. If they gave summer or fall dates for the remaining resorts that may signal a later return to “normal” than some analysts are projecting.

One other aspect is customer satisfaction. Disney may be afraid to announce resort reopening dates too soon only to have to delay them. So many people were disappointed in 2020 with cancelled trips. Until they are confident they can loosen some of the distancing on rides, in queues and at restaurants it’s going to be hard to add too much park capacity which also adds to the delay in opening resorts. You don’t want resorts filled with unhappy guests who couldn’t get a park reservation.

I'm guessing part of it is simpler than that: They are watching the booking rates. ASM was booking slowly, so they pushed it back a month. They are seeing an uptick in demand in the late spring/early summer... especially with Poly out of commission until a bit later, they brought Wilderness Lodge back on line for the Magic Kingdom area and Beach Club for Epcot area.

So some of it may be expectation driven. But I suspect a lot of it in hard numbers driven: How are their bookings looking compared to a normal spring/summer.

I suppose -- if vaccinations take hold and things start to change in March/April, you could see a surge in demand for summer travel. Disney can probably get any hotel back up to taking reservations quickly, with re-opening on 1-2 months notice.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I'm guessing part of it is simpler than that: They are watching the booking rates. ASM was booking slowly, so they pushed it back a month. They are seeing an uptick in demand in the late spring/early summer... especially with Poly out of commission until a bit later, they brought Wilderness Lodge back on line for the Magic Kingdom area and Beach Club for Epcot area.

So some of it may be expectation driven. But I suspect a lot of it in hard numbers driven: How are their bookings looking compared to a normal spring/summer.

I suppose -- if vaccinations take hold and things start to change in March/April, you could see a surge in demand for summer travel. Disney can probably get any hotel back up to taking reservations quickly, with re-opening on 1-2 months notice.
I agree with that. They have some idea where bookings will be. They don’t want to have to turn away people but at the same time don’t want a resort open at 50% capacity. I think as more people get vaccinated there will be an uptick in reservations for the Spring and Summer. Kids are still a big wildcard since they aren’t even in the trials yet. I suspect we will see some of the additional resort capacity brought back before the end of the summer but would not be shocked if not everything was back until holidays 2021.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'm guessing part of it is simpler than that: They are watching the booking rates. ASM was booking slowly, so they pushed it back a month. They are seeing an uptick in demand in the late spring/early summer... especially with Poly out of commission until a bit later, they brought Wilderness Lodge back on line for the Magic Kingdom area and Beach Club for Epcot area.

So some of it may be expectation driven. But I suspect a lot of it in hard numbers driven: How are their bookings looking compared to a normal spring/summer.

I suppose -- if vaccinations take hold and things start to change in March/April, you could see a surge in demand for summer travel. Disney can probably get any hotel back up to taking reservations quickly, with re-opening on 1-2 months notice.

Any upticks in spring or early summer are a mirage...because if I know Disney travelers (and I do)...they are booking now thinking everyone one will be getting shots within days/weeks and they don’t believe the caution over logistics...they will be wrong. Cancellations on deck.

As we’ve discussed here - they also will be reckless until somebody they know dies and the next few months will be really bad and erode travel confidence even more.

People are the easiest animals on earth to predict behavior patterns.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Have you seen or heard anything first-hand that supports this? March, at the absolute best, is the only thing I've seen for any normal vaccine distribution. Once Moderna is approved, that date might be possible.
No...what I’m saying is Americans are already letting their guard down (have been for 2 months) and they will convince themselves this is gonna happen.

Who needs experts when everyone just assumes their opinion carries equal weight?
 

Rteetz

Premium Member
Have you seen or heard anything first-hand that supports this? March, at the absolute best, is the only thing I've seen for any normal vaccine distribution. Once Moderna is approved, that date might be possible.
Dr. Fauci said yesterday he believes the general public will have access late March early April. Some other have slightly earlier or slightly later time frames.

Unrelated to the quote

All Star Movies was set to open February 9th but they pushed it back. Clearly Disney has no problem doing such so they could do so again if need be. I do not think it is unreasonable to assume increase capacity and a better handle on the pandemic come summer 2021 when these resorts are opening. As others have noted there are still several resorts that do not have dates.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
No...what I’m saying is Americans are already letting their guard down (have been for 2 months) and they will convince themselves this is gonna happen.

Who needs experts when everyone just assumes their opinion carries equal weight?

I've hardly been a Covid-denier, quite the opposite.

But I actually think by summer 2021, domestic travel may indeed be fairly safe.
Those most at risk should hopefully be vaccinated by February/March. A high number of adults should be vaccinated by April-June. Combined with people who have acquired some level of immunity via infection..

While kids can get the infection, and can even die from the infection, the mortality rate is indeed MUCH lower among children and young adults.

So I expect the death numbers to be very low by late Spring. Which will prompt more normalization.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I've hardly been a Covid-denier, quite the opposite.

But I actually think by summer 2021, domestic travel may indeed be fairly safe.
Those most at risk should hopefully be vaccinated by February/March. A high number of adults should be vaccinated by April-June. Combined with people who have acquired some level of immunity via infection..

While kids can get the infection, and can even die from the infection, the mortality rate is indeed MUCH lower among children and young adults.

So I expect the death numbers to be very low by late Spring. Which will prompt more normalization.

The death numbers are not what’s limiting travel... it’s the local/country restrictions that are all designed on reducing/controlling spread.

I believe you’re not a hoaxer...but Concentrating on the worst case results is not what the mitigation efforts are meant to control. It’s a benefit of them.

Travel won’t “rebound” to what it was anytime soon because of the economic fallout that’s hasn’t hit big time. That is what happens in bust for travel. Circle of life.

That combined with the immediate covid issue means 2021 is lost.

Disney knows...

Then after they will be tight pursestrings till the next upswing.

...Disney knows that too.
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
The death numbers are not what’s limiting travel... it’s the local/country restrictions that are all designed on reducing/controlling spread.

I believe you’re not a hoaxer...but Concentrating on the worst case results is not what the mitigation efforts are meant to control. It’s a benefit of them.

Travel won’t “rebound” to what it was anytime soon because of the economic fallout that’s hasn’t hit big time. That is what happens in bust for travel. Circle of life.

That combined with the immediate covid issue means 2021 is lost.

Disney knows...

Then after they will be tight pursestrings till the next upswing.

...Disney knows that too.

Why do you know you are right more than anyone else knows they are right? ;)

Isn't everyone here just giving their best "guess" based on the information that's out there?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Have you seen or heard anything first-hand that supports this? March, at the absolute best, is the only thing I've seen for any normal vaccine distribution. Once Moderna is approved, that date might be possible.
We have enough vaccine coming by the end of March from Pfizer and Moderna for 100M people (200M doses but 2 shots per person). Between healthcare workers, the elderly and people with conditions that make them higher risk there are more than 100M possible recipients. Healthy adults under 65 won’t likely get the vaccine before April at the earliest. That’s also around when the FDA is expected to give full approval for the first 2 vaccines. In Q2 we get another 100M doses of the Moderna vaccine but Pfizer so far hasn‘t committed to shipping any more vaccine before Q3. The wildcards are the other vaccines which could be approved in Jan from AstraZeneca and JnJ. Without those vaccines the US will only have enough doses for 150M people by June or about 45% of the population. The government is also in negotiations with Pfizer to try to secure 100M additional doses in Q2 instead of waiting until after June. If that’s successful then we would have enough doses for 200M people by June or about 60% of the population. Kids are also a wildcard since the trials didn’t include kids under 12. Both Pfizer and Moderna are running trials now for kids 12-17 but neither have even started on kids under 12.

The question for Disney hotels is when will there be enough people vaccinated to start driving cases down? We won’t reach herd immunity by June unless another vaccine or 2 comes through but we don’t need herd immunity to see cases drop. If cases drop enough will people start to consider more travel and visiting places like WDW. Even more important when can Disney start pulling back Covid restrictions, specifically distancing on rides which is forcing them to keep park capacity lower.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
The death numbers are not what’s limiting travel... it’s the local/country restrictions that are all designed on reducing/controlling spread.

I believe you’re not a hoaxer...but Concentrating on the worst case results is not what the mitigation efforts are meant to control. It’s a benefit of them.

Travel won’t “rebound” to what it was anytime soon because of the economic fallout that’s hasn’t hit big time. That is what happens in bust for travel. Circle of life.

That combined with the immediate covid issue means 2021 is lost.

Disney knows...

Then after they will be tight pursestrings till the next upswing.

...Disney knows that too.

But the various restrictions are ultimately designed to prevent/reduce hospitalizations and death. When deaths and hospitalizations fall 95% below where they are now, you won't find many localities really wanting to enforce restrictions. Look back at June/July 2020, when a lot of restrictions were being loosened. June/July 2021 infections/hospitalizations/deaths should be even much much smaller than June/July 2020.

Yes, there will be economic fallout -- the amount is still unknown.

And the effect on domestic travel is even more unknown:
2021:
-Likely international travel will remain severely impacted. So WDW won't be getting many international guests.
-As you said, economic pain could further reduce spending on travel
-But for those Americans who do want to travel, they may increase their domestic travel if they are reducing their international travel. Which could increase demand for a place like WDW.

.... and going back to the regional politics of it -- If Florida is at a point where hospitals don't have many Covid patients, and where Covid deaths are down to less than 10-20 deaths per week in the whole state... really think Florida is going to be pushing many restrictions?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Why do you know you are right more than anyone else knows they are right? ;)

Isn't everyone here just giving their best "guess" based on the information that's out there?

I believe what I’m being told...from outside my own head.

You have believed your head more in these discussions than I. It’s on the record.

Ultimately - and understandably - this is another “when can I have my Disney??” Tangent.

I get that. Stay the course. As far as why I comment on Disney’s business and operations outlook...it’s burned in my head. I admit I’d be less annoying if it wasn’t the case.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
We have enough vaccine coming by the end of March from Pfizer and Moderna for 100M people (200M doses but 2 shots per person). Between healthcare workers, the elderly and people with conditions that make them higher risk there are more than 100M possible recipients. Healthy adults under 65 won’t likely get the vaccine before April at the earliest. That’s also around when the FDA is expected to give full approval for the first 2 vaccines. In Q2 we get another 100M doses of the Moderna vaccine but Pfizer so far hasn‘t committed to shipping any more vaccine before Q3. The wildcards are the other vaccines which could be approved in Jan from AstraZeneca and JnJ. Without those vaccines the US will only have enough doses for 150M people by June or about 45% of the population. The government is also in negotiations with Pfizer to try to secure 100M additional doses in Q2 instead of waiting until after June. If that’s successful then we would have enough doses for 200M people by June or about 60% of the population. Kids are also a wildcard since the trials didn’t include kids under 12. Both Pfizer and Moderna are running trials now for kids 12-17 but neither have even started on kids under 12.

The question for Disney hotels is when will there be enough people vaccinated to start driving cases down? We won’t reach herd immunity by June unless another vaccine or 2 comes through but we don’t need herd immunity to see cases drop. If cases drop enough will people start to consider more travel and visiting places like WDW. Even more important when can Disney start pulling back Covid restrictions, specifically distancing on rides which is forcing them to keep park capacity lower.

Let's do the math.
The overwhelming majority of deaths/hospitalizations come from the elderly -- they can be fully vaccinated in those first 200m doses.

There are about 250 million American adults in the USA. By March, at least 50-75 million of those adults will have some natural Covid immunity from infection. If you vaccinate another 100 million. That's 150 million to 175 million adults with potentially at least some Covid immunity by March. April/May will being additional vaccinations, possibly from Johnson & Johnson or other vaccines. It's not hard to imagine 70%+ adults having at least some immunity by April/May, which would go a long way towards a level of herd immunity.

As you correctly said: "150M people by June or about 45% of the population"
That's the pessimistic view, that there are no additional vaccines.
But let's assume it is accurate: There are 250 million adults. 150 million to have the vaccine, which is enough for all elderly, people with co-morbidities, etc. Of the 100 million non-vaccinated -- by then, at least 30 million will have some natural immunity from infection.
That's 180 million out of 250 million adults... 72%.... which is the ballpark for herd immunity. And the 28% of adults without immunity will largely be those who simply refused the vaccine, and those who are relatively young and healthy and extremely unlikely to suffer severely from the virus.
 
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MansionButler84

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
But the various restrictions are ultimately designed to prevent/reduce hospitalizations and death. When deaths and hospitalizations fall 95% below where they are now, you won't find many localities really wanting to enforce restrictions. Look back at June/July 2020, when a lot of restrictions were being loosened. June/July 2021 infections/hospitalizations/deaths should be even much much smaller than June/July 2020.

Yes, there will be economic fallout -- the amount is still unknown.

And the effect on domestic travel is even more unknown:
2021:
-Likely international travel will remain severely impacted. So WDW won't be getting many international guests.
-As you said, economic pain could further reduce spending on travel
-But for those Americans who do want to travel, they may increase their domestic travel if they are reducing their international travel. Which could increase demand for a place like WDW.

.... and going back to the regional politics of it -- If Florida is at a point where hospitals don't have many Covid patients, and where Covid deaths are down to less than 10-20 deaths per week in the whole state... really think Florida is going to be pushing many restrictions?
I think you both can be correct. Governments will be eager to “reopen” everything next summer once a vaccine is widely available but that doesn’t mean travel will magically rebound just because it’s possible. That will likely take a few years, but Disney is in a relatively strong position. That nostalgia they’ve been selling for years is really powerful stuff. Hotels far offsite, be damned.
 

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