WDW Reopening Estimates

[DisneyCane]

The issue with Florida was that cases were underreported. It's been confirmed that many more people contracted the virus in Florida as early as January. It's difficult to say just how many people have had it here.

That said - I live 10 min from the parks and most people here have been really cautious. Everyone wearing masks, practicing social distancing, etc. We want our parks back open and we know the best way to do that is to be as careful as we can.

Not tested and under reported are two very different things. The antibody testing and research from virus detectives is showing that the virus was in the United States (including Florida) much earlier than thought. Asymptomatic or people with very mild symptoms would have had absolutely no reason to get tested back when there was supposedly no human to human transmission and all cases were supposedly around Wuhan, China.

Even now, I doubt that anywhere close to 100% of people with a mild cough or slight fever will go get tested.

As far as the parks opening, that has more to do with what type of procedures for social distancing and other preventative measures can be implemented within WDW than what the surrounding communities do. Honestly, neither Orange or Osceola counties really had much of an outbreak to begin with. Both could have been in Phase 1 (or Phase 2) since the beginning.

 

[GoofGoof]

My only concern really is the masks. Masks and humidity don’t seem to go well. I saw 3 and under aren’t applicable, but that 4 - 8 range may be a stretch.

It’s actually 3-8. Only under 3 are exempt.

 

[mhaftman7]

It’s actually 3-8. Only under 3 are exempt.

Oof. Gonna be some unhappy campers.

 

[GoofGoof]

Shades of Green just cancelled our reservations for the week of 22June. Seems June is out, unless they plan to open only to DVC or guests of "real" WDW hotels. We have reservations for a week in Sept and Nov , so will stick with them and hope for the best.

Thanks for the update. First I’ve heard of a cancellation that late in June. Disney seems to be doing a week at a time with only the first week in June cancelled so far. In a day or 2 they are do for another week to drop.

I’m fairly confident you will get your Sept and Nov trips in, but I can’t say 100% for sure. I‘ve been wrong so many times with this whole pandemic I’ve stopped counting. It’s hard to imagine the parks still closed in September, but back in March I would have said the same thing about June. We all thought worst case scenario was re-opening after Easter. Crazy times.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Comical to read how sure some are of their opinions. And then belittling people that have differing opinions. It's ok to have a different opinion. Disney won't change their plan based on any of our opinions so sit back, relax and don't be a schmuck.

 

[DuckTalesWooHoo1987]

Wearing a mask is a deal breaker for me under any circumstance and I'm at the point that I don't even think my October trip will happen. It might be "open" by then but I still don't know that even by then if it will "feel" like Disneyworld or not. I'm actually supposed to be there right this second but obviously that didn't happen and so I moved my points to the second week of June and I think that isn't going to happen either. One thing is for sure, though, and that is that I'm gonna have a total stockpile of DVC points. LOL!

 

[marni1971]

"If you dream it, you can do it." -- Walt Disney

- Tom Fitzgerald, not Walt Disney.

 

[brianstl]

Shades of Green just cancelled our reservations for the week of 22June. Seems June is out, unless they plan to open only to DVC or guests of "real" WDW hotels. We have reservations for a week in Sept and Nov , so will stick with them and hope for the best.

SOG is abiding by Pentagon policies. I don’t thinks it tells us anything about Disney either way.

 

[ppete1975]

I don't see them opening much before mid July. I don't care when they open as I don't plan on going any time soon. Not til there is a cure or vaccine cause I don't trust others with my safety. Seeing many on here trying to find ways to get around rules for our health is disgusting . I have lost faith in most people since this has gone on.

How about if there is never a cure or vaccine? Regardless of media hype, this is a very real possibility.

 

[Jrb1979]

How about if there is never a cure or vaccine? Regardless of media hype, this is a very real possibility.

Then herd immunity will happen at some point. Why is it so hard to follow physical distancing

 

[peter11435]

Then herd immunity will happen at some point.

That’s not a guarantee either.

 

[GoofGoof]

Disney isn’t waiting for a vaccine or herd immunity to open. While a valid discussion to have, this thread is supposed to be about re-opening estimates.

 

[rle4lunch]

SOG is abiding by Pentagon policies. I don’t thinks it tells us anything about Disney either way.

good point. i just got off an all hands teams call saying that we're still in stop movement until 30 June.

 

[GoofGoof]

SOG is abiding by Pentagon policies. I don’t thinks it tells us anything about Disney either way.

A valid point. Although their website says they are working with their partners at WDW on a re-opening plan and they have also shifted new reservations to 7/1 its ultimately different owners so not a smoking gun on what Disney is planning. As a point of reference the military owned resort in Hawaii isn’t taking reservations until 9/1 with Honolulu on a stay at home oder through June 30.

 

[brianstl]

That’s not a guarantee either.

The studies I read predict herd immunity is only effective for 9+ months and then immunity fades. Plus, shutdowns/restrictions will delay herd immunity and possibly stop it from happening. Herd immunity needs a vast majority of the people to be exposed to it at during a certain time frame of months.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Why is it so hard to follow physical distancing

Because that's not how human beings behave. Aristotle observed 2,400 years ago that anyone who doesn't need social interaction is essentially a god and anyone who can't handle social interaction is essentially a beast. We can't just suspend millions of years of evolution and enculturation in the name of "flattening the curve."

 

[Jrb1979]

Because that's not how human beings behave. Aristotle observed 2,400 years ago that anyone who doesn't need social interaction is essentially a god and anyone who can't handle social interaction is essentially a beast. We can't just suspend millions of years of evolution and enculturation in the name of "flattening the curve."

You can have social interaction while being 6 ft apart. No one said we have to do this forever going forward. Just for the time being while we open things.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

You can have social interaction while being 6 ft apart. No one said we have to do this forever going forward. Just for the time being while we open things.

No, we literally can't. People can't and won't do it. You can put strips of tape six feet apart in lines but people aren't going to do it. Not because they're sitting there saying "I don't want to do social distancing because it's stupid," but even if they legitimately intend to follow the rules, they're not going to because they're not programmed that way. Once they get into the flow of their day they're going to move around normally.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

Free will has to prevail in the common sense argument. right? if you feel like it's gonna kill you, by all means, shelter in place. if you think you're gonna be okay, then resume your normal lives. right? right?

The trouble with this kind of position is that, as has too often been posted in the history of WDW boards, Disney is a business.
Simply, if they don't have enough people coming, they won't make money.

Second, they have a brand/image to protect. They need people to keep coming over the long term to make money.

It is all in the numbers.

The potential flaw in your argument is assuming the numbers are favorable, and that they will continue to be favorable over the long term. It is a big gamble for WDW. Like it or not, WDW needs (more or less) a majority of the public to agree with what they do. Even 5 years from now, they will STILL need a majority of the public to agree with what the choices they make in 2020.

The second challenge with your position is again that WDW needs actual customers. Desire isn't enough. People also need money. They have to be able to afford a trip to WDW. And well, even if they have enough income, they have to feel like WDW is the place they want to spend that extra money.

Even supposing all the above is favorable, what WDW really needs is not just gate numbers, they also need people to spend money on splurges like: deluxe hotel rooms, souvenirs, and the deluxe dining plan. Given the current situation, I suspect many people of means are choosing to make donations right now.

 

[Daniel Brown]

Must....not....type....."ok Karen" on some of these...