WDW Reopening Estimates

[TrojanUSC]

Sigh. So Cindy drives Simba 1 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The Johnsons are at Disney from Tuesday through Sunday. They go to the Animal Kingdom on Saturday. You are going to tell them are exposed? Why create that unneeded panic? Are you reaching out to the families that are already home and back to work to say they may have been exposed? How about the airlines? Magical Express? Same Resort? Same Building? Let’s also assume that ALL of those people get tested and a handful test positive. How in the world are you gonna prove that they contracted it from Cindy?

The truth is we are all exposed. 100% of the time. Unless you haven’t retrieved your mail, eaten food, drank liquids, performed housework or yard work, but you may be dead just from starvation.

It is not about contracting it from one specific person. It's about mitigating exposure. We know this spreads in close air working environments. If 30 CMs at Space Mountain test positive for COVID-19, as has happened in other close working environments, particularly air conditioned ones, like factories, it is likely that Disney would need or attempt to notify the guests who rode that attraction in the last X number of days and tell them they've been exposed. If nothing else that kind of outbreak would make headlines around the world and do immense damage to their brand.

Some airlines have been notifying passengers when several members of the flight crew have tested positive.

Early on when an usher at a broadway show tested negative, the theater was notifying guests patrons who may have been exposed.

This is about letting people know so they don't accidentally continue spreading it, possibly to a loved one.

 

[mhaftman7]

It is not about contracting it from one specific person. It's about mitigating exposure. We know this spreads in close air working environments. If 30 CMs at Space Mountain test positive for COVID-19, as has happened in other close working environments, particularly air conditioned ones, like factories, it is likely that Disney would need or attempt to notify the guests who rode that attraction in the last X number of days and tell them they've been exposed. If nothing else that kind of outbreak would make headlines around the world and do immense damage to their brand.

Some airlines have been notifying passengers when several members of the flight crew have tested positive.

Early on when an usher at a broadway show tested negative, the theater was notifying guests patrons who may have been exposed.

This is about letting people know so they don't accidentally continue spreading it, possibly to a loved one.

Doing a simple internet search, the only time I see ANY business reaching out to customers of potential exposure is late-February to mid-March. Anything within the last 60 days has been quite the opposite.

The problem with your insistence on notifying guests of POTENTIAL exposure is that a.) They’ve already warned guests of the potential and the guest assumes all responsibility

and b.) Why would ANY business assume responsibility for something they can’t prove they caused? Not to be insensitive, but who’s to say that a guest came into contact at Space Mountain and not at the airport, or Magical Express if flying in, or at a gas station if driving. If the Mears driver who handles EVERYONE’S luggage exposes them before they get to an infected cast member, how is that possible infection on Disney? No business is gonna assume responsibility for something that cannot be proven.

Is it the right thing to do let people know? Yes. Are we trying to stop the spread? Yes. Do I think Disney will have extremely strict testing on their end to monitor guest AND cast member health? 100%. As a business, are you going to be calling tens of thousands of guests to say they MAY have been exposed and assume responsibility for something that MAY have been introduced elsewhere. Nope. There is no way to track every guest that may have come into contact with it. Not every guest is using a magic band. What about day trip guests with no fast passes. What about the guests that used a then potentially infected to bus to go elsewhere? Or the guests that stayed at the same resort.

IF Disney were to attempt to contact guests about potential exposure, you’d have to contact every guest staying on property. Why create a panic and put that liability on yourself. Unfortunately, it isn’t about what is right, it’s about what you can prove. The same can be said about recent guests. Are recent guests obligated to call Disney and let them know they were recently there and may have infected cast members?

 

[SourcererMark79]

My guess is no fireworks at first. With limited capacity comes limited revenue so also limited hours. If the parks open in the summer it doesn’t get dark until after 9. The parks may not stay open that long. Eventually fireworks could be the first thing back vs parades. There’s no practical way to do parades while social distancing is going on.

Perhaps there will be a new looping castle projection show?

 

[havoc315]

It’s still all assumptions. You’re still assuming the 1% is the final number. To get an accurate prediction you need factor all your at risks as outliers because they skew your data heavily. They aren’t less important, a loss is a loss, but those outliers should be limited in your number. What’s your general thought, still an assumption, of what percentage of deaths are NOT people in high risk categories? In the last three months, 2/1 - 5/9, as per the CDC, 54,861 people have died from Covid19. Of those ~55k, ~39k were people 65+. They are also reporting of that ~55k that ~12k are in hospice or at long term facilities.

It’s not an assumption. It’s the data. Again, there is margin of error. But through analysis of now MILLIONS of Covid cases, we can see an overall fatality rate of a bit over 1%. There can be margin of error, absolutely. Might it really be 0.8%? Sure, maybe. 1.7%? Sure, maybe. But we know it’s not 0.1%, we know it’s not 10%.

and yes, the fatality rate is much higher among those over 65. (About 17% of Americans). The fatality rate is high among the obese (about 40% of Americans), etc, etc.

I dare say that around half of Americans are in “increased risk groups.”

Really no matter which way you slice it, unmitigated Covid in the US would kill 1-2 million Americans.

 

[donsullivan]

Can those who want to continue the relentless back and forth about the science or not science please take it somewhere else and stop cluttering up every single thread with the never ending back and forth of how the other person is wrong? It's impossible to see if there is any actually real information in a thread anymore because everything gets cluttered up with these stupid food fights about who knows more about the illness.

 

[GoofGoof]

Perhaps there will be a new looping castle projection show?

That’s more likely. Something that runs continuously as opposed to a parade or fireworks with a firm start time.

 

[DisneyWildcat]

Can those who want to continue the relentless back and forth about the science or not science please take it somewhere else and stop cluttering up every single thread with the never ending back and forth of how the other person is wrong? It's impossible to see if there is any actually real information in a thread anymore because everything gets cluttered up with these stupid food fights about who knows more about the illness.

Exactly

 

[ImperfectPixie]

It’s still all assumptions. You’re still assuming the 1% is the final number. To get an accurate prediction you need factor all your at risks as outliers because they skew your data heavily. They aren’t less important, a loss is a loss, but those outliers should be limited in your number. What’s your general thought, still an assumption, of what percentage of deaths are NOT people in high risk categories? In the last three months, 2/1 - 5/9, as per the CDC, 54,861 people have died from Covid19. Of those ~55k, ~39k were people 65+. They are also reporting of that ~55k that ~12k are in hospice or at long term facilities.

Your number of deaths is way low. As of today, 89,564 have died from COVID-19 in the US.

 

[The Mom]

Can those who want to continue the relentless back and forth about the science or not science please take it somewhere else and stop cluttering up every single thread with the never ending back and forth of how the other person is wrong? It's impossible to see if there is any actually real information in a thread anymore because everything gets cluttered up with these stupid food fights about who knows more about the illness.

I agree- please leave the "Covid is going to kill millions in the US within weeks if things reopen/no it isn't if we aren't in the high risk group we have nothing to worry about" back and forth in the Coronavirus thread! Yes, I understand that reopening estimates are determined by the virus, so links to updates about the virus, re-openings in states/cities, etc are OK. But not this constant bask and forth of epidemiology. Even the Epidemiologist in my family doesn't want to speculate!

Further posts continuing the argument will be deleted and warnings issued.

 

[ToTBellHop]

That’s more likely. Something that runs continuously as opposed to a parade or fireworks with a firm start time.

Light show at night. No fancier than Tree of Life Awakenings. Unannounced, impromptu characters on floats during the day (like Move it, Shake it, but no show stops).

Also, there will be designated areas to eat. So the jerks talking about buying popcorn and eating one kernel every 10 min to avoid a mask need to give it a rest. If you won’t wear a mask for you, wear it for the Make a Wish kids. There could be a child taking a break from chemo six feet behind you in line for Pirates.

 

[GoofGoof]

Light show at night. No fancier than Tree of Life Awakenings. Unannounced, impromptu characters on floats during the day (like Move it, Shake it, but no show stops).

Also, there will be designated areas to eat. So the jerks talking about buying popcorn and eating one kernel every 10 min to avoid a mask need to give it a rest. If you won’t wear a mask for you, wear it for the Make a Wish kids. There could be a child taking a break from chemo six feet behind you in line for Pirates.

That all sounds reasonable. Disney knows that things like characters, parades and fireworks are part of what makes Disney parks loved so they will likely try to figure out a way to do what they can while not creating situations where crowds need to gather shoulder to shoulder.

I agree on the food plan too.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Significant good news from Cambridge, MA today that Moderna’s Phase 1 antibody trial was safe for participants and produced similar neutralizing antibodies to real infection. Phase 2 begins now, Phase 3, hopefully, in July.

Incredible work from the scientists involved that could one day get us back into Festival of the Lion King.

 

[John park hopper]

The number of scientist working on producing a vaccine world wide increases the likely hood a vaccine will be discovered and put in to production in the shortest amount of time. The advances in DNA/RNA sequencing, gene manipulation, in the last 15 years is incredible--science will prevail over covid-19

 

[ToTBellHop]

The number of scientist working on producing a vaccine world wide increases the likely hood a vaccine will be discovered and put in to production in the shortest amount of time. The advances in DNA/RNA sequencing, gene manipulation, in the last 15 years is incredible--science will prevail over covid-19

Yes. Of course there is bad when you look for it. But I look for the good. It is heartening to me to have a situation so significant that the entire world has modified its behavior for our mutual benefit and the entire scientific industry is sacrificing profits to save as many people in far-off lands as possible.

 

[Epcotbob]

Doing a simple internet search, the only time I see ANY business reaching out to customers of potential exposure is late-February to mid-March. Anything within the last 60 days has been quite the opposite.

The problem with your insistence on notifying guests of POTENTIAL exposure is that a.) They’ve already warned guests of the potential and the guest assumes all responsibility

View attachment 471183

and b.) Why would ANY business assume responsibility for something they can’t prove they caused? Not to be insensitive, but who’s to say that a guest came into contact at Space Mountain and not at the airport, or Magical Express if flying in, or at a gas station if driving. If the Mears driver who handles EVERYONE’S luggage exposes them before they get to an infected cast member, how is that possible infection on Disney? No business is gonna assume responsibility for something that cannot be proven.

Is it the right thing to do let people know? Yes. Are we trying to stop the spread? Yes. Do I think Disney will have extremely strict testing on their end to monitor guest AND cast member health? 100%. As a business, are you going to be calling tens of thousands of guests to say they MAY have been exposed and assume responsibility for something that MAY have been introduced elsewhere. Nope. There is no way to track every guest that may have come into contact with it. Not every guest is using a magic band. What about day trip guests with no fast passes. What about the guests that used a then potentially infected to bus to go elsewhere? Or the guests that stayed at the same resort.

IF Disney were to attempt to contact guests about potential exposure, you’d have to contact every guest staying on property. Why create a panic and put that liability on yourself. Unfortunately, it isn’t about what is right, it’s about what you can prove. The same can be said about recent guests. Are recent guests obligated to call Disney and let them know they were recently there and may have infected cast members?

This notification from Disney tells me that they are not waiting for a vaccine to be deployed nor will they wait till Covid-19 is functionally eradicated before opening the parks. They know there will be risk and are basically saying that if you visit their properties in the early days of reopening, you ARE AT RISK.

 

[John park hopper]

This notification from Disney tells me that they are not waiting for a vaccine to be deployed nor will they wait till Covid-19 is functionally eradicated before opening the parks. They know there will be risk and are basically saying that if you visit their properties in the early days of reopening, you ARE AT RISK.

just like pools with no life guards SWIM AT YOUR OWN RISK

 

[Lilofan]

This notification from Disney tells me that they are not waiting for a vaccine to be deployed nor will they wait till Covid-19 is functionally eradicated before opening the parks. They know there will be risk and are basically saying that if you visit their properties in the early days of reopening, you ARE AT RISK.

WDW is being upfront and honest and no sugar coating it.

 

[SourcererMark79]

Light show at night. No fancier than Tree of Life Awakenings. Unannounced, impromptu characters on floats during the day (like Move it, Shake it, but no show stops).

All seems plausible. Some people may not be looking at the long term changes brought upon this virus, and what may become the new norm. There's a difference between what is being discussed as changes now, and what theme parks will need incorporate long term.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Incredible work from the scientists involved that could one day get us back into Festival of the Lion King.

Now if only the scientists could find a way to get rid of Beauty and the Beast - Still on Stage, that would be a true miracle!

 

[Duckberg]

The hope is to get WDW back to visitor numbers that will allow recall of CM's back to their paying jobs