WDW Reopening Estimates

[mhaftman7]

No. The nightmare scenario is a big outbreak among CMs which then spreads to guests.

They would MUCH rather stay closed another month or two than risk having to close again or deal with the bad press of an outbreak.

How would you prove that chain of events? Who in the press has the clout to call any point Ground Zero for an outbreak?

 

[mhaftman7]

A very large random sample is a very accurate to look at the totality of the population. Sure, it can be off by a few points. But if you test tens of thousands of people randomly, and you get a hit rate of 20%... It eliminates any chance that the "real" number is 90%.

So we know the fatality rate for the whole city would be 0.24%. So even if the infection rate was 100%, then it would be twice as deadly as the flu. But we know the infection rate is nowhere near 100%. If you assume the 20% antibody rate as being the most accurate, then the mortality rate of Covid would be about 1.2%. But even if we assume that 20% rate is a bit off... maybe it's more like 25-30%.. maybe you should account for the fact that those most susceptible were already infect... you still have a dangerously high mortality rate of somewhere between 0.5% and 1%.
Meaning -- If heard immunity requires 60% of the population to become infected, it means unchecked, the infection would kill 1-2 million Americans.
We appear to be on our way to 120,000 to 200,000 in this "first wave" alone. What's dangerous, there is a lot of room for further waves before we get to anything close to herd immunity.

What?! Random sampling statistics only work in advertising. You basically are using focus groups to determine the outcome of a virus. How people continuously ignore the fact that numbers aren’t accurate until 100% of people are tested. The largest outbreaks are in places are having the largest centralized populations. You can’t even use predictive scenarios based off of current data because of asymptomatic people who have/had the virus. Let’s all stop acting like we’re authorities on anything related to predictive scenarios. The first step is admitting you’re a moron and gosh darnit, I KNOW I’m a moron. I trust that Disney will do the best they can to keep folks safe. If EVERYONE does their part, we’ll get through this together.

 

[havoc315]

What?! Random sampling statistics only work in advertising. You basically are using focus groups to determine the outcome of a virus. How people continuously ignore the fact that numbers aren’t accurate until 100% of people are tested. The largest outbreaks are in places are having the largest centralized populations. You can’t even use predictive scenarios based off of current data because of asymptomatic people who have/had the virus. Let’s all stop acting like we’re authorities on anything related to predictive scenarios. The first step is admitting you’re a moron and gosh darnit, I KNOW I’m a moron. I trust that Disney will do the best they can to keep folks safe. If EVERYONE does their part, we’ll get through this together.

There is A LOT we don't know. And I won't ever claim to know as much as those with dedicated expertise in a particular subject. (there are things I know better and worse than others, sometimes because of indirect expertise... for example, I just got off the phone with an infectious disease physician currently treating Covid patient at a NY hospital, and got some information from him).
But we do know -- If there are 8 million people, and we randomly test 50,000 out of those millions -- The results may not be 100% predictive. There is a margin of error.
But again, let's say it's an antibody test with a 20% hit rate. Let's assume the antibody itself is somewhat reliable. (obviously, if its a totally completely unreliable test that only gets a correct result 5% of the time, we can throw it out).
So does that mean... it's exactly 20% of 8 million?? No, of course not. But there is a margin of error. That margin of error is no 80%..... We can be absolutely confident that the "real" number isn't 0%... we can be absolutely confident that the real number isn't 100%. An a statistician can give you high confidence that the true number fits within a margin of error.
(There was a time that I personally could have calculated that.... but that time has passed, so I'm not going to try because it is currently outside my expertise).

 

[CastAStone]

There is a way to do random sampling that of about 2000 people that is 98% likely to indicate within 2% accuracy how many people have had COVID 19. It is true that the study I referenced earlier has some methodology issues in sampling and the authors didn’t try to claim is was done perfectly randomly. But it’s the best that we know so far, other than perhaps the Diamond Princess ship.

 

[WDWTrojan]

I keep saying that a big breakout among CMs, alone, is their biggest fear. If you have no workforce, you have no park.

Well its the operational issue plus the realistic scenario of having to notify guests they were exposed to the virus and having to re-close because nearly everyone has to quarantine, even if they don't have it. Then you have the press from that.

 

[mhaftman7]

There is A LOT we don't know. And I won't ever claim to know as much as those with dedicated expertise in a particular subject. (there are things I know better and worse than others, sometimes because of indirect expertise... for example, I just got off the phone with an infectious disease physician currently treating Covid patient at a NY hospital, and got some information from him).
But we do know -- If there are 8 million people, and we randomly test 50,000 out of those millions -- The results may not be 100% predictive. There is a margin of error.
But again, let's say it's an antibody test with a 20% hit rate. Let's assume the antibody itself is somewhat reliable. (obviously, if its a totally completely unreliable test that only gets a correct result 5% of the time, we can throw it out).
So does that mean... it's exactly 20% of 8 million?? No, of course not. But there is a margin of error. That margin of error is no 80%..... We can be absolutely confident that the "real" number isn't 0%... we can be absolutely confident that the real number isn't 100%. An a statistician can give you high confidence that the true number fits within a margin of error.
(There was a time that I personally could have calculated that.... but that time has passed, so I'm not going to try because it is currently outside my expertise).

But your focus group is in a highly populated and centralized area. The predictive number is still going to be higher than a smaller rural area. You can stipulate the prediction with other information such as with population within a certain area, but to assume AN ENTIRE population will get it based off of the number one populated city which also is not exactly conforming to social distancing is misleading.

 

[mhaftman7]

Well its the operational issue plus the realistic scenario of having to notify guests they were exposed to the virus and having to re-close because nearly everyone has to quarantine, even if they don't have it. Then you have the press from that.

Sigh. So Cindy drives Simba 1 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The Johnsons are at Disney from Tuesday through Sunday. They go to the Animal Kingdom on Saturday. You are going to tell them are exposed? Why create that unneeded panic? Are you reaching out to the families that are already home and back to work to say they may have been exposed? How about the airlines? Magical Express? Same Resort? Same Building? Let’s also assume that ALL of those people get tested and a handful test positive. How in the world are you gonna prove that they contracted it from Cindy?

The truth is we are all exposed. 100% of the time. Unless you haven’t retrieved your mail, eaten food, drank liquids, performed housework or yard work, but you may be dead just from starvation.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Do the bus drivers count as cast members, because I’ve heard some duzies from them. That said, although I was sticking to my June 1 opinion, June 15 also seems reasonable.

Oh well, there goes my June 1st guess My next guess is July 15 ....

 

[Thelazer]

A guess?

"parade" was in quotes, so... what I really mean was "wave at mickey / Minney as they zip down main street at 20 mph"

 

[Giss Neric]

Again... nobody knows anything about anything.

Yet people assume about everything.

 

[mhaftman7]

"parade" was in quotes, so... what I really mean was "wave at mickey / Minney as they zip down main street at 20 mph"

There will TOTALLY be a parade. DAILY EVEN!! Just not how you expected. It will actually be a reverse parade where the guest head to the exit at the end of the day and all characters are at the Train Station waving. I can see it now, Mickey live streaming to Mousebook, Donald standing in front of Judy Hopps, and Baymax not being able to get passed Peter Pan and Wendy to leave, but they think it’s a ploy to make their view worse.

 

[Giss Neric]

Question: Are all the castmembers coming back to work regular employees? There will be no DCPs of any sort/contractual/part time?

 

[GoofGoof]

August is more realistic...school will likely start earlier to make up for lost time, so they can automatically count on lower attendance.

I’m thinking the same thing. If schools can go back safely thats a good sign things are going pretty well. Once that happens it’s likely time a theme park could be open. Southern schools go back mid-August so somewhere around the 3rd week of August for a soft opening and then full open around Sept 1 is a reasonable guess. If schools start back early that could all be pushed up a few weeks. I voted for July originally but I could see this as a more conservative and still reasonable approach.

 

[havoc315]

But your focus group is in a highly populated and centralized area. The predictive number is still going to be higher than a smaller rural area. You can stipulate the prediction with other information such as with population within a certain area, but to assume AN ENTIRE population will get it based off of the number one populated city which also is not exactly conforming to social distancing is misleading.

No. The assumption isn’t about how many “will get it.”
It’s science. It will certainly transmit FASTER is a densely populated area.

But there are certain basics to epidemiology and basics of American population distribution.
MOST Americans live in urban or suburban densities.
8 million people live in NYC. Only 2 million live in the entire state of Nebraska — and 25% of those live in the City of Omaha.
So combine the entire state of Nebraska plus the City of New York — 10 million people, 85% of which live in an urban center.
(And looking at the areas outside of NYC — Westchester, Suffolk, Nassau — we see high pandemic spread in suburban densities).
The Greater Los Angeles area has 19 million people — the whole state of Wyoming has under 600,000.
So combine Wyoming with LA— 97% of those people live within dense population centers.

Only 19% of the American population in total lives in rural areas.

So in other words —
Let’s assume — unmitigated, 60% of the population would contract the virus and 1% of those would die:
That’s 1,980,000 people.
Now — lets exclude 100% of rural America. Let’s assume that NOBODY in rural America could ever contract the virus:
That’s still 1,600,000 deaths.
And that’s assuming not a single person in rural America died from Covid.

But getting back to epidemiology, there have been Covid cases in virtually every county in the United States, including rural counties.
It certainly spreads SLOWER in rural counties — which have built in social distancing. But it still spreads.

 

[GoofGoof]

There’s going to be fireworks every night or not at all, having it on select nights only encourages people to go on those nights with the show which is exactly what Disney wants to avoid.

My guess is no fireworks at first. With limited capacity comes limited revenue so also limited hours. If the parks open in the summer it doesn’t get dark until after 9. The parks may not stay open that long. Eventually fireworks could be the first thing back vs parades. There’s no practical way to do parades while social distancing is going on.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

I’m thinking the same thing. If schools can go back safely thats a good sign things are going pretty well. Once that happens it’s likely time a theme park could be open. Southern schools go back mid-August so somewhere around the 3rd week of August for a soft opening and then full open around Sept 1 is a reasonable guess. If schools start back early that could all be pushed up a few weeks. I voted for July originally but I could see this as a more conservative and still reasonable approach.

I’d like a July 4th opening...it’s just not going to happen. Unless, they suddenly open in late June out if no where.

 

[mhaftman7]

No. The assumption isn’t about how many “will get it.”
It’s science. It will certainly transmit FASTER is a densely populated area.

But there are certain basics to epidemiology and basics of American population distribution.
MOST Americans live in urban or suburban densities.
8 million people live in NYC. Only 2 million live in the entire state of Nebraska — and 25% of those live in the City of Omaha.
So combine the entire state of Nebraska plus the City of New York — 10 million people, 85% of which live in an urban center.
(And looking at the areas outside of NYC — Westchester, Suffolk, Nassau — we see high pandemic spread in suburban densities).
The Greater Los Angeles area has 19 million people — the whole state of Wyoming has under 600,000.
So combine Wyoming with LA— 97% of those people live within dense population centers.

Only 19% of the American population in total lives in rural areas.

So in other words —
Let’s assume — unmitigated, 60% of the population would contract the virus and 1% of those would die:
That’s 1,980,000 people.
Now — lets exclude 100% of rural America. Let’s assume that NOBODY in rural America could ever contract the virus:
That’s still 1,600,000 deaths.
And that’s assuming not a single person in rural America died from Covid.

But getting back to epidemiology, there have been Covid cases in virtually every county in the United States, including rural counties.
It certainly spreads SLOWER in rural counties — which have built in social distancing. But it still spreads.

It’s still all assumptions. You’re still assuming the 1% is the final number. To get an accurate prediction you need factor all your at risks as outliers because they skew your data heavily. They aren’t less important, a loss is a loss, but those outliers should be limited in your number. What’s your general thought, still an assumption, of what percentage of deaths are NOT people in high risk categories? In the last three months, 2/1 - 5/9, as per the CDC, 54,861 people have died from Covid19. Of those ~55k, ~39k were people 65+. They are also reporting of that ~55k that ~12k are in hospice or at long term facilities.

 

[Herdman]

Sigh. So Cindy drives Simba 1 on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The Johnsons are at Disney from Tuesday through Sunday. They go to the Animal Kingdom on Saturday. You are going to tell them are exposed? Why create that unneeded panic? Are you reaching out to the families that are already home and back to work to say they may have been exposed? How about the airlines? Magical Express? Same Resort? Same Building? Let’s also assume that ALL of those people get tested and a handful test positive. How in the world are you gonna prove that they contracted it from Cindy?

The truth is we are all exposed. 100% of the time. Unless you haven’t retrieved your mail, eaten food, drank liquids, performed housework or yard work, but you may be dead just from starvation.

Yes, this a thousand times over!!!

 

[Giss Neric]

Hmmm... I hope this is true. It's either the Chinese people are complaining too or it's just not necessary anymore.

 

[DreamalittleDisney]

I’m thinking the same thing. If schools can go back safely thats a good sign things are going pretty well. Once that happens it’s likely time a theme park could be open. Southern schools go back mid-August so somewhere around the 3rd week of August for a soft opening and then full open around Sept 1 is a reasonable guess. If schools start back early that could all be pushed up a few weeks. I voted for July originally but I could see this as a more conservative and still reasonable approach.

This would still be in time for UK school break so more people who probably spend quite a bit on merchandise and food whilst staying on property- meaning they could get cash in this year without these people pushing back to 2021