WDW Reopening Estimates

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Im being 100% serious and not trolling - where do you think the “profoundly negative economic impact” comes from - people being intermittently out of work in some form or fashion or businesses closing because they can’t keep normal operations based on a 2022 timeline.

There would not be a profound negative economic impact if people could work in a normal environment. In the scenario they describe in that article people are absolutely forced in and out of work or have trouble finding stable employment into 2022.

And I’m not trolling....

“Acceptable risk” is not going to be the path taken. The writing is on the wall. Life will have to be adapted. Including in Orlando. long queue lines due to rationed fast passés and cattle pushing each other out of the way to get to the Buffett or the chipmunks at cape May cafe just isn’t going to wash for quite awhile.

 

[jpeden]

Sorry but if you want to take one article and run with it then you be you. People will be back to work before 2022.

People took one model that predicted 2 million deaths from the imperial college and ran with that and caused mass chaos.

You asked where I found anything about people being out of work until 2022. I provided the information and you don’t like the fact that I wasn’t making up a story. I don’t believe that report - I think that things will be starting to get back to normal in June. But you asked me to prove where I saw a 2022 estimate and I did just that.

Do I think it’s a joke of an article that may cause panic? Yes. Is it plastered on the front of CNN or has been the past few days? Yes.

 

[durangojim]

I think that for 2 months, April and May people will in essence be quarantined, but I also think that during this time we will figure out how to socially distance but adapt in some forms and we will start to be out and about (although not like before) by June. I think the parks will open back up in some form by June. Things won’t be back to “normal” for a long time.

 

[Prince-1]

No, but people will be forced into and out of work or have trouble finding stable work if you work in any number of normally stable industries (tourism, Foodservice, entertainment, transportation, sports, etc.) until 2022 based on that report. That was the point I was trying to make.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

No, but people will be forced into and out of work or have trouble finding stable work if you work in any number of normally stable industries (tourism, Foodservice, entertainment, transportation, sports, etc.) until 2022 based on that report. That was the point I was trying to make.

Entertainment is going to have to adjust.

Again...nobody should feel the victim on that. It sucks but things have changed.

I saw little lamentation as Disney raised prices and got drunk off bubble cash since 2012...the fact things changed and they don’t have a feasible backup plan isn’t really anyone’s fault but theirs.

People can travel under the new reality - whatever that may be - or they can choose not too. And Disney will get what they will get.

 

[jpeden]

And I’m not trolling....

“Acceptable risk” is not going to be the path taken. The writing is on the wall. Life will have to be adapted. Including in Orlando. long queue lines due to rationed fast passés and cattle pushing each other out of the way to get to the Buffett or the chipmunks at cape May cafe just isn’t going to wash for quite awhile.

I agree about acceptable risk - but I think that looks differently and that people will make that decision for themselves.

The poster asked me to provide the article and then seemed mad that I could back up that talking point - as I said I think that is alarmist but it’s been plastered all over CNN the past few days. The article absolutely was making the point about profound economic consequences. There’s no other way to read that specific study without them assuming significant unemployment.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

People took one model that predicted 2 million deaths from the imperial college and ran with that and caused mass chaos.

You asked where I found anything about people being out of work until 2022. I provided the information and you don’t like the fact that I wasn’t making up a story. I don’t believe that report - I think that things will be starting to get back to normal in June. But you asked me to prove where I saw a 2022 estimate and I did just that.

Do I think it’s a joke of an article that may cause panic? Yes. Is it plastered on the front of CNN or has been the past few days? Yes.

That article suggested some form of social distancing may be needed...and that’s not the same as economic lockdown.

But honestly - a lot of the precautions should be standard. There should be no compressed lines at stores...there should be no handshaking, hugging and kissing as “greetings”...these are outdated things.

Maybe all restaurants should be reservation based. It’s easy with phone apps. Why have “waiting rooms”?

I think you might be over interpreting this...but that doesn’t mean your concerns aren’t valid.

 

[easyrowrdw]

There was a recent clinical trial in France where it had absolutely no effect; the control group had the same outcomes as the group given hydroxychloroquine. With that said, even if that trial was wrong and it does have some beneficial effect, it's a pretty dangerous drug and isn't something we want to have to rely on. It has a known history of causing serious heart problems in previously healthy people. They had to pull some people out of the clinical trial because it was giving them a dangerous arrhythmia.

Finding better/safer treatment options is definitely the top priority in my mind, because even if they are able to create a successful vaccine (which is far from a certainty) it would probably take at least a year (and likely longer) before it could see widespread administration.

Yeah. I saw something about that trial. It didn't sound good so I'm hoping they figure out something.

 

[jpeden]

That article suggested some form of social distancing may be needed...and that’s not the same as economic lockdown.

But honestly - a lot of the precautions should be standard. There should be no compressed lines at stores...there should be no handshaking, hugging and kissing as “greetings”...these are outdated things.

Maybe all restaurants should be reservation based. It’s easy with phone apps. Why have “waiting rooms”?

I think you might be over interpreting this...but that doesn’t mean your concerns aren’t valid.

I’m also hopeful that this teaches a lot of people about the importance of General good hygiene. Way too many people have no idea of personal hygiene- we should have to have PSA’s about the importance of hand washing in a first world country. That in itself would go a long way to help fight the spread of this thing.

I just want a practical approach that balances health and economic consequences. I just don’t know how this goes on in its current format without severe economic consequences.

 

[DisneyCane]

Based upon today's guidelines, the only way WDW can open before phase 3 would require 100% virtual queues and no parades or fireworks. That may even be required in phase 3 especially for the switchback queues where you keep passing close to a lot of people.

If the demand is there the capacity of the parks would need to be limited so that people waiting in virtual queues can have enough space.

I would also say that no matter what phase it opens in, it would have to be Florida residents only until all states have reached that phase. It would be relatively simple to require Florida ID for entry. Trying to screen for every state that is in the same phase as Florida would be a nightmare.

It seems that no matter the case data, NY and the other northeastern states won't enter phase 2 until May 15th. Best case phase 3 for them will be the middle of June.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Based upon today's guidelines, the only way WDW can open before phase 3 would require 100% virtual queues and no parades or fireworks. That may even be required in phase 3 especially for the switchback queues where you keep passing close to a lot of people.

If the demand is there the capacity of the parks would need to be limited so that people waiting in virtual queues can have enough space.

I would also say that no matter what phase it opens in, it would have to be Florida residents only until all states have reached that phase. It would be relatively simple to require Florida ID for entry. Trying to screen for every state that is in the same phase as Florida would be a nightmare.

It seems that no matter the case data, NY and the other northeastern states won't enter phase 2 until May 15th. Best case phase 3 for them will be the middle of June.

Ok...what percentage of customers in wdw do you think are Florida residents on a given day?

...other than that...I like what you’ve done here

 

[DisneyCane]

Ok...what percentage of customers in wdw do you think are Florida residents on a given day?

...other than that...I like what you’ve done here

If I had to guess I'd say maybe 25%. If they did something like that it would definitely not be all parks open to start. Just Florida residents could never fill all four parks enough to be profitable.

Whatever "phase" WDW opens in, all guests need to be from places in the same phase. Otherwise it defeats the purpose of treating each geographic area differently with respect to reopening.

They could also just wait until the whole country gets to the phase that WDW can open in. I would think some revenue is better than no revenue.

 

[Giss Neric]

If Trump's "Opening up America" plan which starts on May 1 come to fruition, there is a possibility the parks may reopen sooner than expected.

BUT

If openings will be based on states which has less cases, I guess it won't happen cause Florida and California has large numbers of cases.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If I had to guess I'd say maybe 25%. If they did something like that it would definitely not be all parks open to start. Just Florida residents could never fill all four parks enough to be profitable.

Whatever "phase" WDW opens in, all guests need to be from places in the same phase. Otherwise it defeats the purpose of treating each geographic area differently with respect to reopening.

They could also just wait until the whole country gets to the phase that WDW can open in. I would think some revenue is better than no revenue.

More like 15% on balance at most...

In order to have any interest in opening for Florida residents (That’s not gonna happen cause that’s not where the money is...but I’ll play along)....there would have to to be a heavy incentive to get them there...which further causes money loss.

Plus, since you’re inviting day travelers, any type of screening is more problematic...

Can of worms there too.

 

[Joel]

Anyone with chronic lung disease or any other condition that makes them particularly vulnerable to COVID-19 shouldn't even be entertaining the thought of going to the parks until well after we've killed this thing dead, regardless of what "safety" measures Disney puts in place. Or at least if they do, they should realize that it's at their own risk.

 

[EvilChameleon]

My official prediction with absolutely no insider information;
Magic Kingdom opens first, sometime in late June. Masks are required. Temperature checks at the gate. Florida residents only. Capacity cut in half. Assuming that all goes well, we'll see everything else gradually open.
I think they'll allow non-Florida residents in by the end of the year, and capacity will be raised to, oh, 75% when they do.
Capacity will only be raised to 100% once a vaccine is widely available, which hopefully will be this time next year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My official prediction with absolutely no insider information;
Magic Kingdom opens first, sometime in late June. Masks are required. Temperature checks at the gate. Florida residents only. Capacity cut in half. Assuming that all goes well, we'll see everything else gradually open.
I think they'll allow non-Florida residents in by the end of the year, and capacity will be raised to, oh, 75% when they do.
Capacity will only be raised to 100% once a vaccine is widely available, which hopefully will be this time next year.

Wait a second...you’re saying their gonna run for 6 months on Florida residents??

When did I miss the story that Florida has become the land of disposable income...as opposed to where people from out of state come to spend their disposable income?

Only been that way since 1955

 

[disneyflush]

My official prediction with absolutely no insider information;
Magic Kingdom opens first, sometime in late June. Masks are required. Temperature checks at the gate. Florida residents only. Capacity cut in half. Assuming that all goes well, we'll see everything else gradually open.
I think they'll allow non-Florida residents in by the end of the year, and capacity will be raised to, oh, 75% when they do.
Capacity will only be raised to 100% once a vaccine is widely available, which hopefully will be this time next year.

I think the choice eventually comes down to not being able to limit liability enough to open the parks before a vaccine is introduced (and whatever financial ramifications come from that) OR having all guests sign the most exhaustive liability waiver in the history of the world in order to enter Disney property. Temperature checks are great in theory but if your 6 person family drives 10 hours to get to the parks for a few days and 2 of the 6 kids are all at 99.4 then do you all go back to the hotel when they won't let those 2 in? And if those 2 go back to the resort do they just go swim or hang out in the common areas touching and breathing on everything or are they required to leave Disney property? So many variables. Leads me to believe its either 'sign this waiver and take your chances at all places on Disney property' or they don't open back up/don't open back up prior to a vaccine.

 

[mhaftman7]

Honestly, I can really see a bunch of simple changes put into effect.

1.) Perpetual Motion Rides - LMM, HM, LS, etc. Accommodate current group and then skip two carriages. Disinfectant applies after unload to all carriages upon disembarking.

2.) Switchback lines - BLSS, NRJ, etc. 8-10 foot intervals between groups and 2 rows of pathways between useable pathways.

3.) Shows - F!, Fireworks, Parades, MV3D, Indy, MILF, etc. Closed indefinitely.

4.) Roller coasters - RnRC, EE, SDD, etc. Current group and skip three rows. Disinfect upon disembarking.

These are all BEST case scenarios having as many rides open as possible. Your main concern isn’t really the parks, it’s the mass transit to and from the resorts. You’ll immediately see the parked car fees dropped to encourage guests to drive to the parks. Can you imagine the end of day line for the busses? Do they lower the cost and if the Minnie VanDo they also suspend hopper passes to limit crowds? You’d think they’d have to not only cut capacity by half, if not more, to each park. Then you will also probably have a stricter 9a - 8p (if not earlier closing) schedule.

Things are going to be weird, but we’ll get through. Keep the magic alive. To quote (of all people) Jerry Springer - “Take care of yourselves and each other.”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Honestly, I can really see a bunch of simple changes put into effect.

1.) Perpetual Motion Rides - LMM, HM, LS, etc. Accommodate current group and then skip two carriages. Disinfectant applies after unload to all carriages upon disembarking.

2.) Switchback lines - BLSS, NRJ, etc. 8-10 foot intervals between groups and 2 rows of pathways between useable pathways.

3.) Shows - F!, Fireworks, Parades, MV3D, Indy, MILF, etc. Closed indefinitely.

4.) Roller coasters - RnRC, EE, SDD, etc. Current group and skip three rows. Disinfect upon disembarking.

These are all BEST case scenarios having as many rides open as possible. Your main concern isn’t really the parks, it’s the mass transit to and from the resorts. You’ll immediately see the parked car fees dropped to encourage guests to drive to the parks. Can you imagine the end of day line for the busses? Do they lower the cost and if the Minnie VanDo they also suspend hopper passes to limit crowds? You’d think they’d have to not only cut capacity by half, if not more, to each park. Then you will also probably have a stricter 9a - 8p (if not earlier closing) schedule.

Things are going to be weird, but we’ll get through. Keep the magic alive. To quote (of all people) Jerry Springer - “Take care of yourselves and each other.”

Limited capacity of rides means limited capacity of parks by a lot....which means it throws the entire point of the parks out of complete financial whack.

There won’t be disenfecfing on rides...
1. It’s not really practical and could be dangerous
2. By wiping down rides, the Walt Disney company accepts some responsibility for doing it from a legal perspective.
What’s to say that will work? And better yet - what’s stopping anyone under the sun from suing them cause they say so?