WDW Reopening Estimates

[jpeden]

No we can't stay home forever but we also can't open everything up back to normal either. Doing it slowly is the only way to make sure there isn't a spike in cases.

I agree it must be phased. If done right we can be in phase three by June or July.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Thankfully it isn't a hydroxychloroquine situation. Remdesivir is a promising drug that was specifically created as an antiviral, and the current clinical trials are very promising. It's not going to be a miracle cure, but it has the potential to be a significant help if the trials continue to go well.

If it does continue to perform well, it would likely only be used in hospitals for relatively severe cases, though. It's an intravenous drug; not something where someone can just pop a pill.

Some hospitals are using hydroxychloroquine as part of their official protocol. It's not just the dude in France. I don't think they've given up on it, but are trying to find the appropriate use and dosage. Regardless, it's good news about Remdesivir. It seems like improved treatment options are our best bet right now.

 

[Jrb1979]

I agree it must be phased. If done right we can be in phase three by June or July.

I hope so but have my doubts cause I think there will be a spike in cases just after the first phase.

 

[jpeden]

I hope so but have my doubts cause I think there will be a spike in cases just after the first phase.

There will invariably be an uptick but even Faucci has said it will not be as bad and can be quickly identified and contained.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Almost 20 million people have filed for unemployment - that is roughly 13 percent of the American workforce. We are about to be in a larger economic crisis if this continues than a health crisis. People that work hourly and weekly paid jobs can’t afford to sit home and not work. Unemployment doesn’t last forever.

You can’t really think that the solution to this is keeping people out of work until possibly August or September or some as suggested 2021 or 2022? You are inviting a depression that would surpass 1929. I’m sorry you disagree but this economy has to reopen sooner rather than later otherwise we are going to be dealing with worse issues than COVID-19. In central Florida, that means theme parks and tourism whether you like that fact or not.

Europe is starting to re-open. Local and state governments are starting to plan to re-open. Citizens of Western democracies aren’t going to continue to be forced into isolation.

I just don’t think the “money, money, money!” Tact is gonna dictate this one...which is amazing because it’s dictacted every other one since about 1968...

There still flaws in the way it’s being handled and that will delay everything. The upside is there is potential to close those gaps.

I don’t know why you repeatedly are touting Europe - which is still mostly locked down and are now only dipping their toe in the water...and ignoring the Far East where their similar track weeks ago have had bounce. Hate to point out we are well behind both. Hopefully with better results though.

As far as Orlando goes..
Listen, I’ve lived through a Boom and a recession there...and a couple since...

Orlando knows the deal: they live off the highs and the lows of travel. That’s the price everywhere. Cranes everywhere and new cheap townhouses in the highs...tumbleweed in the lows.

That won’t affect Disney...they don’t care. They will open when the liability is low and the money to be had is high...and not a second sooner.

I’d love to see a summer restart...just can’t see how you sell it until the virus is beaten back and/or you have clinical capability to treat it or prevent it.

 

[Getachew]

Almost 20 million people have filed for unemployment - that is roughly 13 percent of the American workforce. We are about to be in a larger economic crisis if this continues than a health crisis. People that work hourly and weekly paid jobs can’t afford to sit home and not work. Unemployment doesn’t last forever.

You can’t really think that the solution to this is keeping people out of work until possibly August or September or some as suggested 2021 or 2022? You are inviting a depression that would surpass 1929. I’m sorry you disagree but this economy has to reopen sooner rather than later otherwise we are going to be dealing with worse issues than COVID-19. In central Florida, that means theme parks and tourism whether you like that fact or not.

Europe is starting to re-open. Local and state governments are starting to plan to re-open. Citizens of Western democracies aren’t going to continue to be forced into isolation.

reopening everything as fast as you want it to will just cause a second even worse wave that will be arguably worse to the economy than what you're describing.

 

[UNCgolf]

Some hospitals are using hydroxychloroquine as part of their official protocol. It's not just the dude in France. I don't think they've given up on it, but are trying to find the appropriate use and dosage. Regardless, it's good news about Remdesivir. It seems like improved treatment options are our best bet right now.

There was a recent clinical trial in France where it had absolutely no effect; the control group had the same outcomes as the group given hydroxychloroquine. With that said, even if that trial was wrong and it does have some beneficial effect, it's a pretty dangerous drug and isn't something we want to have to rely on. It has a known history of causing serious heart problems in previously healthy people. They had to pull some people out of the clinical trial because it was giving them a dangerous arrhythmia.

Finding better/safer treatment options is definitely the top priority in my mind, because even if they are able to create a successful vaccine (which is far from a certainty) it would probably take at least a year (and likely longer) before it could see widespread administration.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There will invariably be an uptick but even Faucci has said it will not be as bad and can be quickly identified and contained.

There is no testing available to adequate identify and contain...it currently doesn’t exist.

You’ve put yourself back to square one on the argument. There’s work to do...until it gets done talking about theme parks is moot...so it should be mute.

 

[Jrb1979]

I don't see Disney or any theme parks opening any time soon. The number of deaths was a new high yesterday. Til that starts going down I don't see how you can open places that involve large gatherings. IMO opening pockets of the country is a bad idea. All states should follow the same rules.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree it must be phased. If done right we can be in phase three by June or July.

Pull back on the reigns here...

You’re still looking at a delayed opening till June...to start. And that could be best case scenario

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't see Disney or any theme parks opening any time soon. The number of deaths was a new high yesterday. Til that starts going down I don't see how you can open places that involve large gatherings. IMO opening pockets of the country is a bad idea. All states should follow the same rules.

Not only does that number have to fall...hospitalizations have to drop dramatically.

People are “selectively hearing” Fauci and Birx...the downside of the curve is likely longer than upside...that’s how viruses work. Slow draw down.

So even if it was equal and tomorrow was peak - which is not the case - the curve would only get to the needed level on Memorial Day.

Shoot for 7/4 as the best case scenario.

 

[Jrb1979]

Not only does that number have to fall...hospitalizations have to drop dramatically.

People are “selectively hearing” Fauci and Birx...the downside of the curve is likely longer than upside...that’s how viruses work. Slow draw down.

So even if it was equal and tomorrow was peak - which is not the case - the curve would only get to the needed level on Memorial Day.

Shoot for 7/4 as the best case scenario.

Here in Ontario Canada we are locked down til mid May. They figure we will be in some sort of social distancing til there is a vaccine or a cure.

 

[jpeden]

Just for fun please show us where anyone wants to keep people out of work till 2022.

Social distancing may remain in place until 2022, Harvard researchers say

Researchers said social distancing may have to be extended unless a vaccine becomes available or "critical care capacity is increased."

www.google.com

A Harvard study saying intermittent distancing may be needed until 2022.

“The study acknowledged that prolonged distancing would most likely have profoundly negative economic, social and educational consequences.”

What they are talking about would keep people out of work off and on until sometime in 2022. That is not tenable. An intermittent job is as good for stability and economic security as no job at all.

 

[Prince-1]

Social distancing may remain in place until 2022, Harvard researchers say

Researchers said social distancing may have to be extended unless a vaccine becomes available or "critical care capacity is increased."

www.google.com

A Harvard study saying intermittent distancing may be needed until 2022.

“The study acknowledged that prolonged distancing would most likely have profoundly negative economic, social and educational consequences.”

What they are talking about would keep people out of work off and on until sometime in 2022. That is not tenable. An intermittent job is as good for stability and economic security as no job at all.

No. They aren‘t saying that people cannot work till 2022. They are saying that we may have to continue with some social distancing “unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just for fun please show us where anyone wants to keep people out of work till 2022.

That’s just exaggerating the “case” for effect.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Social distancing may remain in place until 2022, Harvard researchers say

Researchers said social distancing may have to be extended unless a vaccine becomes available or "critical care capacity is increased."

www.google.com

A Harvard study saying intermittent distancing may be needed until 2022.

“The study acknowledged that prolonged distancing would most likely have profoundly negative economic, social and educational consequences.”

What they are talking about would keep people out of work off and on until sometime in 2022. That is not tenable. An intermittent job is as good for stability and economic security as no job at all.

That’s not saying nobody should work..

No. They aren‘t saying that people cannot work till 2022. They are saying that we may have to continue with some social distancing “unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”

Yep, they’re saying people can’t do the same old crap because they’re unwilling to adjust

 

[91JLovesDisney]

Is anyone else nervous about the changes coming to Disney parks? I am glad that new safety measures will be put into place but in my heart I don't want them to change a thing!

 

[jpeden]

No. They aren‘t saying that people cannot work till 2022. They are saying that we may have to continue with some social distancing “unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available.”

Im being 100% serious and not trolling - where do you think the “profoundly negative economic impact” comes from - people being intermittently out of work in some form or fashion or businesses closing because they can’t keep normal operations based on a 2022 timeline.

There would not be a profound negative economic impact if people could work in a normal environment. In the scenario they describe in that article people are absolutely forced in and out of work or have trouble finding stable employment into 2022.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is anyone else nervous about the changes coming to Disney parks? I am glad that new safety measures will be put into place but in my heart I don't want them to change a thing!

In the current situation...Disney has NO CLUE what changes need to be made to either protect their parks or create the illusion that they are protecting their parks...

One or both has to be inplace before anyone gets on small world

 

[jpeden]

That’s not saying nobody should work..

No, but people will be forced into and out of work or have trouble finding stable work if you work in any number of normally stable industries (tourism, Foodservice, entertainment, transportation, sports, etc.) until 2022 based on that report. That was the point I was trying to make.