WDW Reopening Estimates

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You make many valid points. I wonder about character meets. Even if they have them and institute a no touching rule, how are they going to stop children from running to the characters and touching them? Put the character or guests behind a barrier? Not a good look if they still want to sell PhotoPass pictures. And there’s the whole question of autograph books and pens being passed around from guests to characters.

Character meetings are off for “awhile”...it would seem.

 

[HongKongFooy]

But first we need emergency, special legislation to insulate all business from liability if they have demonstrated reasonable care such as cleaning policies, temp scans and questionnaires.


If a business has taken reasonable precautions then those high risk or terribly susceptible go at own risk and will have no standing for claims.

I want to see a more assumption of risk approach.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What is the percentage of international travelers? I hate to say it, but those travelers are probably the last bastion of travelers that is going to return- am I wrong?

Before we debate “where do the people need to come from?!?”...I’ve prepared this handy “scientific” chart to show where the crowds
Need to come from...

They could do a limited opening for local residents...but it would be pointless/useless for too long. International travels account for another 10-15%...That’s 30 or so combined with locals.

So the bulk is represented on this handy/scientific chart...

 

[HongKongFooy]

International travels account for another 10-15%.

Non USAers account for as low as 10%??
That surprises me. I would have guessed around double that to 20 to 25%.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Non USAers account for as low as 10%??
That surprises me. I would have guessed around double that to 20 to 25%.

It USED to be about 15%...it could be 25...

But that gets you back fo square one: they need mass attendance to operate for there even to be a point in operating...so why bother if they can’t pull 75% of the total normal crowd and that is from the heading to depression continental US...particularly the upper Midwest and eastern seaboard

There has always been a mistaken impression that wdw has a big local and/or international crowd...but that isn’t really accurate

 

[Getachew]

It USED to be about 15%...it could be 25...

But that gets you back fo square one: they need mass attendance to operate for there even to be a point in operating...so why bother if they can’t pull 75% of the total normal crowd and that is from the heading to depression continental US...particularly the upper Midwest and eastern seaboard

There has always been a mistaken impression that wdw has a big local and/or international crowd...but that isn’t really accurate

Some good points. Disneyland, IMO, could survive better on locals than WDW. If WDW opens up and barely gets any business because people aren't coming, would they be better off than they are now?

 

[mhaftman7]

Limited capacity of rides means limited capacity of parks by a lot....which means it throws the entire point of the parks out of complete financial whack.

There won’t be disenfecfing on rides...
1. It’s not really practical and could be dangerous
2. By wiping down rides, the Walt Disney company accepts some responsibility for doing it from a legal perspective.
What’s to say that will work? And better yet - what’s stopping anyone under the sun from suing them cause they say so?

So do you think it’s gonna be an all or nothing scenario? That once the doors are open, it’s business as usual? I’m all for it. We were scheduled to go in August and we are still hoping for business as usual, but we understand it may not be or even at all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So do you think it’s gonna be an all or nothing scenario? That once the doors are open, it’s business as usual? I’m all for it. We were scheduled to go in August and we are still hoping for business as usual, but we understand it may not be or even at all.

I hope that’s not “the choice”...I’m just having a hard time wrapping my brain around a feasible “compromise” plan.

I just can’t see it.

Temperature checks in Florida are pointless...it proves nothing. And masks for a place with 70% relative humidity that caters to children seems “problematic”...just a touch

 

[Getachew]

I hope that’s not “the choice”...I’m just having a hard time wrapping my brain around a feasible “compromise” plan.

I just can’t see it.

Temperature checks in Florida are pointless...it proves nothing. And masks for a place with 70% relative humidity that caters to children seems “problematic”...just a touch

But yet, they can't just go the business as usual route either...unless they wait until a vaccine? I don't think they will wait that long, but who knows at this point.

 

[mhaftman7]

Overall we’ll wait and see just what can and will be done. Remember that both Japan and China are way more accepting of the measures you’re proposing...as is the climate..:and no opening in sight for them. Very telling.

Do you think that all the parks re-open simultaneously, including the ones abroad or will they open in stages based off of circumstance? If China and Japan open first that could give us a timeline on what to expect.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But yet, they can't just go the business as usual route either...unless they wait until a vaccine? I don't think they will wait that long, but who knows at this point.

It’s really hard to get a read on any of this...the medical issue isn’t close to being past and the handling of this thing has been utter chaos for the most part.

 

[Getachew]

It’s really hard to get a read on any of this...the medical issue isn’t close to being past and the handling of this thing has been utter chaos for the most part.

utter chaos is an understatement.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Do you think that all the parks re-open simultaneously, including the ones abroad or will they open in stages based off of circumstance? If China and Japan open first that could give us a timeline on what to expect.

Nah...China is in charge in China...OLC Runs japan and they are notoriously cautious...

I’d say Hong Kong is the best one to watch as far as “optimism” goes...and Euro is the pessimism side of things. The domestic parks are hard to gauge...its really “early” to look at this if we’re honest. The US has been on lockdown for only 33 days...it just seems like it’s been 360

 

[DisneyCane]

If you assume 100% virtual queues, the big question is which "phase" does a WDW opening fit into?

Phase 1:
LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under strict physical distancing protocols.

Phase 2:
LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under moderate physical distancing protocols.

Phase 3:
LARGE VENUES (e.g., sit-down dining, movie theaters, sporting venues, places of worship) can operate under limited physical distancing protocols.

Since a Florida residents only opening seems to not make any business sense based on the posted statistics, I assume that whatever phase the opening fits into, the entire country must be in that phase for WDW to open. I also haven't seen what exactly constitutes "strict," "moderate," and "limited" physical distancing protocols.

 

[Getachew]

Has to be considered that opening WDW is not like opening a normal business either. WDW is huge. It will take some time to get everything back in order, even if/when they do feel it is "safe" enough to open.

 

[DisneyCane]

Has to be considered that opening WDW is not like opening a normal business either. WDW is huge. It will take some time to get everything back in order, even if/when they do feel it is "safe" enough to open.

I assume they will try and project the "safe opening" date as far in advance as possible to start the preparation in advance. I don't think they will wait for the "safe opening" determination to start preparing to open.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I want basic safety precautions. Temperature screening, mandatory mask, no firework/theater shows, reduced hours, and heavy disinfecting.

I think longer hours would be preferable to help disperse the crowds more.

 

[Getachew]

I assume they will try and project the "safe opening" date as far in advance as possible to start the preparation in advance. I don't think they will wait for the "safe opening" determination to start preparing to open.

Hard to project anything with so much uncertainty. What's safe for others may not be safe for WDW.

 

[DisneyCane]

I think longer hours would be preferable to help disperse the crowds more.

But would run counter to efficient staff usage with lower crowds. To really disperse the crowds, even with longer hours would require 100% virtual queues. Otherwise, a large percentage of the days guest will be in the parks during the peak times.

 

[marni1971]

It USED to be about 15%...it could be 25...

It fluctuates (naturally)

Ballpark is 19-21%