WDW Reopening Estimates

[Herdman]

No. But schools in particular are a hot-bed for germs, and with asymptomatic spread, unless we come up with some miracle cure before September, I think sending kids back to public school settings is going to be disastrous. Adults are able to self-regulate with more reliance, but as we've all seen, even adults can't always be depended upon to do what they should.

The doctors have said we will be much better prepared to isolate a positive test in the fall to cut down on the spread. There is a delicate balance to the damage being done by not having a re-opened society and continuing to stay isolated. Statistics being lost druring this time are things like suicides from people being depressed about losing their jobs or not seeing loved ones. No answer is easy, but I think keeping things shut down for many more months will be much worse than sensibly re-opening. Just my opinion...

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The doctors have said we will be much better prepared to isolate a positive test in the fall to cut down on the spread. There is a delicate balance to the damage being done by not having a re-opened society and continuing to stay isolated. Statistics being lost druring this time are things like suicides from people being depressed about losing their jobs or not seeing loved ones. No answer is easy, but I think keeping things shut down for many more months will be much worse than sensibly re-opening. Just my opinion...

What about asymptomatic spread? Testing is great - but unless someone presents with symptoms, they have no reason to test that person.

One kid who is asymptomatic. That's all it takes to start a hot-spot at a school.

 

[patsfan24]

Are we operating under the illusion that not EVERYONE is going to be exposed to this at a certain point in time? Squashing the curve is about spreading out the spike of exposures, not preventing them - they aren't preventable. This virus has proven to be much more easily spread than first thought (lookin' at you, WHO). I do think we start to shift the balance towards unnecessary economic damage the longer this complete shutdown goes on.

 

[Tom P.]

No. But schools in particular are a hot-bed for germs, and with asymptomatic spread, unless we come up with some miracle cure before September, I think sending kids back to public school settings is going to be disastrous. Adults are able to self-regulate with more reliance, but as we've all seen, even adults can't always be depended upon to do what they should.

The school argument is a difficult one and I can certainly understand your point of view on that one. Fortunately, the American school calendar does not have most schools starting until August or September, so we have the luxury of time to watch the results as we re-open other sectors of the economy and re-evaluate what is best.

But in your comment, it sounded like you were saying that anyone who goes to work before a vaccine or treatment is playing "Russian roulette" with their lives. You acted as though there is no acceptable level of risk someone can or should be willing to deal with. That's what I was referring to. I understand your point-of-view, but the entire economy cannot remain shuttered indefinitely. It's just not possible.

 

[Tom P.]

Are we operating under the illusion that not EVERYONE is going to be exposed to this at a certain point in time? Squashing the curve is about spreading out the spike of exposures, not preventing them - they aren't preventable. This virus has proven to be much more easily spread than first thought (lookin' at you, WHO). I do think we start to shift the balance towards unnecessary economic damage the longer this complete shutdown goes on.

No, I think everyone will be exposed at some point. But I'd like to see us take whatever reasonable measures we can to ensure that (a) people are exposed in as small of groups as possible so that our healthcare system continues to be able to deal with it and (b) people in especially vulnerable groups may be able to avoid exposure until an effective treatment or vaccine is available.

 

[patsfan24]

No, I think everyone will be exposed at some point. But I'd like to see us take whatever reasonable measures we can to ensure that (a) people are exposed in as small of groups as possible so that our healthcare system continues to be able to deal with it and (b) people in especially vulnerable groups may be able to avoid exposure until an effective treatment or vaccine is available.

Absolutely agree. The question keeping all of our public legislators up at night is what constitutes "reasonable measures."

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The school argument is a difficult one and I can certainly understand your point of view on that one. Fortunately, the American school calendar does not have most schools starting until August or September, so we have the luxury of time to watch the results as we re-open other sectors of the economy and re-evaluate what is best.

But in your comment, it sounded like you were saying that anyone who goes to work before a vaccine or treatment is playing "Russian roulette" with their lives. You acted as though there is no acceptable level of risk someone can or should be willing to deal with. That's what I was referring to. I understand your point-of-view, but the entire economy cannot remain shuttered indefinitely. It's just not possible.

Oh, I don't think the whole economy should remain shut by any stretch. But any situation that puts large numbers of people under the same roof, sharing bathrooms, mingling together, etc. etc. is going to be a huge risk for a becoming a hot-spot. Even large office buildings aren't as much of a risk as schools and other buildings like arenas, theaters, etc.

Extreme caution is all I'm advocating for. I understand people are antsy to get back to some semblance of normalcy, but we've got to be extraordinarily careful. I find it very concerning that no one talking about re-opening has mentioned asymptomatic spread.

 

[bryanfze55]

Until a vaccine or effective treatment is found, people taking "acceptable risks" are basically playing Russian roulette. We've seen that health is no guarantee against severe symptoms, and "recovery" is no guarantee against long-term health consequences due to the virus.

Legit question, not trying to be facetious: What if there is never a vaccine? What if the effective treatments don’t substantially lower the death rate? Do you plan to avoid gatherings for the rest of your life if so?

 

[Tom P.]

Legit question, not trying to be facetious: What if there is never a vaccine? What if the effective treatments don’t substantially lower the death rate? Do you plan to avoid gatherings for the rest of your life if so?

Would I never again go to church and be around a few hundred other people? No, I would definitely go back to church. Would I never again go to see a concert where 30,000 people were crammed into one arena? Yes, I would probably avoid that permanently if COVID-19 remained a significant threat. Each person would have to make that assessment, of course.

 

[bryanfze55]

Would I never again go to church and be around a few hundred other people? No, I would definitely go back to church. Would I never again go to see a concert where 30,000 people were crammed into one arena? Yes, I would probably avoid that permanently if COVID-19 remained a significant threat. Each person would have to make that assessment, of course.

People not going to large gatherings of 30,000 people may help prevent mass spread. But if you’re out and about in small gatherings, there’s a very good chance you’ll still be exposed to the virus. I think we all need to be prepared to get the virus at some point. No guarantee of a vaccine. If someone is in poor health or is older (the virus absolutely DOES discriminate against the elderly, unfortunately)... they should probably be more cautious to avoid becoming infected. But when it’s all said and done, most countries will probably have to become Sweden. If we are lucky, it may wither out and never come back, at least not as strongly.

 

[Herdman]

What about asymptomatic spread? Testing is great - but unless someone presents with symptoms, they have no reason to test that person.

One kid who is asymptomatic. That's all it takes to start a hot-spot at a school.

This goes back to what I said before. Are you (or we) going to stay in our houses for a year or more? That's the only way you are going to guarantee that there is no asymptomatic spread. Our entire economy will be trash and more lives will be lost that way than you would ever dream from the virus.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Legit question, not trying to be facetious: What if there is never a vaccine? What if the effective treatments don’t substantially lower the death rate? Do you plan to avoid gatherings for the rest of your life if so?

If treatments are considered effective, they would lower the death rate by default.

My family doesn't really do big gatherings in general anyway. Concerts, maybe once every few years. Movie theaters, maybe twice a year. I hate shopping with the passion of 1,000 suns, so keeping that to a minimum is zero big deal to me.

Limiting our activities to gatherings of less than 30 people really doesn't change life too much for us, aside from our boys' schools and Disney trips. As far Disney goes, we'll likely be waiting for a while to see how things develop. As I said earlier in the thread, if an effective treatment isn't developed between now and the fall, I will seriously consider home-schooling.

 

[bryanfze55]

If treatments are considered effective, they would lower the death rate by default.

My family doesn't really do big gatherings in general anyway. Concerts, maybe once every few years. Movie theaters, maybe twice a year. I hate shopping with the passion of 1,000 suns, so keeping that to a minimum is zero big deal to me.

Limiting our activities to gatherings of less than 30 people really doesn't change life too much for us, aside from our boys' schools and Disney trips. As far Disney goes, we'll likely be waiting for a while to see how things develop. As I said earlier in the thread, if an effective treatment isn't developed between now and the fall, I will seriously consider home-schooling.

That’s a perfectly respectable choice. I personally think my daughter does better in school. I’m looking forward to the day she can go back.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

This goes back to what I said before. Are you (or we) going to stay in our houses for a year or more? That's the only way you are going to guarantee that there is no asymptomatic spread. Our entire economy will be trash and more lives will be lost that way than you would ever dream from the virus.

Who is staying in their houses now other than those who have tested positive? I hope you aren't treating the stay-at-home orders to mean that you can't go outside...because that isn't the case anywhere in the US that I know of.

The point of the shut-downs and stay-at-home recommendations are to keep our social circles as small as possible. It's not as big a deal as some are making it out to be as long as you cover your face in public, keep your distance from others when possible, and wash your hands often.

How many of your "social circle" do you trust explicitly to follow the safety protocols? I asked my husband this exact question, and between the two of us and everyone we talk to in person, the answer was stunningly low. Bear in mind, you need to include coworkers, classmates, friends, family, delivery people, the people who work at stores, clients, etc. etc.

We've decided that when my husband is called back to work - which will likely be soon - he will carry extra bandannas/cloth masks so that if he runs into people who aren't already wearing one, he can ask them to do so, and honestly, I think this should become the norm until there is an effective treatment available. I'm still seeing far too many people in stores who aren't even trying to fashion make-shift face masks, which are WAY better than nothing at all.

 

[Herdman]

If treatments are considered effective, they would lower the death rate by default.

My family doesn't really do big gatherings in general anyway. Concerts, maybe once every few years. Movie theaters, maybe twice a year. I hate shopping with the passion of 1,000 suns, so keeping that to a minimum is zero big deal to me.

Limiting our activities to gatherings of less than 30 people really doesn't change life too much for us, aside from our boys' schools and Disney trips. As far Disney goes, we'll likely be waiting for a while to see how things develop. As I said earlier in the thread, if an effective treatment isn't developed between now and the fall, I will seriously consider home-schooling.

I certainly respect your right to choose what is best for your family. I think that's the main thing - give everyone the choice as to what is best for them, don't force everyone to fit into one box by staying home.

 

[bryanfze55]

Who is staying in their houses now other than those who have tested positive? I hope you aren't treating the stay-at-home orders to mean that you can't go outside...because that isn't the case anywhere in the US that I know of.

The point of the shut-downs and stay-at-home recommendations are to keep our social circles as small as possible. It's not as big a deal as some are making it out to be as long as you cover your face in public, keep your distance from others when possible, and wash your hands often.

How many of your "social circle" do you trust explicitly to follow the safety protocols? I asked my husband this exact question, and between the two of us and everyone we talk to in person, the answer was stunningly low. Bear in mind, you need to include coworkers, classmates, friends, family, delivery people, the people who work at stores, clients, etc. etc.

We've decided that when my husband is called back to work - which will likely be soon - he will carry extra bandannas/cloth masks so that if he runs into people who aren't already wearing one, he can ask them to do so, and honestly, I think this should become the norm until there is an effective treatment available. I'm still seeing far too many people in stores who aren't even trying to fashion make-shift face masks, which are WAY better than nothing at all.

In many parts of the country, the only thing you can do “outside” is hangout in your backyard or take a walk around your neighborhood. Parks are closed near me. Yes, I can “go outside” technically... I applaud you if walking around your neighborhood is making you happy. But I guess I’m just not that disciplined. Parks should open.

I’m all for continued social distancing and wearing masks in public and of course practicing hygiene, but there’s a large group of people in this country that don’t want the lockdowns to ease up, even with those preventative measures in place.

I hope your husband and family stay safe. I’ll probably be going back to my office at the beginning of June. All we can do is take caution, I guess, and try to stay as physically healthy as possible in the event that we do get sick.

 

[Herdman]

Who is staying in their houses now other than those who have tested positive? I hope you aren't treating the stay-at-home orders to mean that you can't go outside...because that isn't the case anywhere in the US that I know of.

The point of the shut-downs and stay-at-home recommendations are to keep our social circles as small as possible. It's not as big a deal as some are making it out to be as long as you cover your face in public, keep your distance from others when possible, and wash your hands often.

How many of your "social circle" do you trust explicitly to follow the safety protocols? I asked my husband this exact question, and between the two of us and everyone we talk to in person, the answer was stunningly low. Bear in mind, you need to include coworkers, classmates, friends, family, delivery people, the people who work at stores, clients, etc. etc.

We've decided that when my husband is called back to work - which will likely be soon - he will carry extra bandannas/cloth masks so that if he runs into people who aren't already wearing one, he can ask them to do so, and honestly, I think this should become the norm until there is an effective treatment available. I'm still seeing far too many people in stores who aren't even trying to fashion make-shift face masks, which are WAY better than nothing at all.

No, we go out with caution to the store, to get restaurant carryout, etc. We wear masks where we feel like we can't easily social distance. We both have been working from home almost exclusively and I hope to continue to do so for a long time. I just don't want us to get to the point where we can't make our own decisions as to what works best for us. It's going to be pretty near impossible to judge if someone has been exclusivly practicing all the protocols. You can only do so much....

 

[ImperfectPixie]

That’s a perfectly respectable choice. I personally think my daughter does better in school. I’m looking forward to the day she can go back.

My youngest definitely does too. My oldest is doing pretty well at home as long as I check and make sure he did all his work. Both my boys are autistic, and my youngest has a severe speech delay. His speech therapist has been holding zoom meetings for the kids every Wednesday so they can get some group therapy in. I consider myself extremely lucky that 1) I'm already used to turning daily activities into learning opportunities just from all the exposure I had to helping my boys through early intervention, their various therapies, and working with their teachers, and 2) that I finished a degree in English and education a couple of years ago, so I feel like I was pretty well equipped to deal with the sudden switch to schooling at a distance.

We've got a new science project brewing...a robin has decided to build a nest right outside the window of my home office.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

No, we go out with caution to the store, to get restaurant carryout, etc. We wear masks where we feel like we can't easily social distance. We both have been working from home almost exclusively and I hope to continue to do so for a long time. I just don't want us to get to the point where we can't make our own decisions as to what works best for us. It's going to be pretty near impossible to judge if someone has been exclusivly practicing all the protocols. You can only do so much....

Exactly. I'm really not advocating for everyone to stay home at all...I'm advocating for extreme caution and for it to really be driven home how important it is to cover your face in public, wash hands, etc.

 

[easyrowrdw]

What about asymptomatic spread? Testing is great - but unless someone presents with symptoms, they have no reason to test that person.

One kid who is asymptomatic. That's all it takes to start a hot-spot at a school.

There are some daycares open around here. Thankfully, there haven't been any reports of outbreaks or cases linked to them. Given that infection and death rates are so low among kids, perhaps they are less likely to be carriers also? I dunno. Our daycare has sent out rules for when they reopen. It's about as serious as I can imagine a place taking it. At the moment I feel okay about our younger kids going back this summer and older kids going back in the fall.