WDW Reopening Estimates

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, but it depends on their perspective. Their are others that make money off being overpessimistic on their prospects and timelines. Which is why you can’t trust anyone’s predictions and analysis. Everyone has an agenda.

Disney required you to be the former...not the latter

 

[peter11435]

Disney required you to be the former...not the latter

I’m not referring to Disney

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

I'm curious to see what plays out this week. I'm pretty sure the Governor and Disney, etc want the parks to open ASAP for economic reasons and the highest reason Disney won't as soon as they'd like is for liability and public perception reasons. And I can't see them opening only to FL residents as its a bit like plugging a power strip into itself to power it. Money coming in from out of state is the goal (tourism for the ancillary businesses too). And it's so hard to speculate and offer opinions about when it's safe without triggering a political agenda here or there. And what I think doesn't matter, but I know what I'm hoping for from the decision makers.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

Florida continues to show really strong data when it comes to COVID cases. Still running at below a 10% positive/test ratio and continuing to see a low level of positive results each day. I wouldn’t be surprised if the parks open before the resorts to encourage local only attendance for a few weeks while Disney gets thing back on line. Obviously, the Florida economy can’t survive without tourism so the need to reopen for all guests is significant. I’ll continue to stand by my prediction of a mid-June opening (locals only) with a late June opening of all resorts.

 

[Getachew]

Florida continues to show really strong data when it comes to COVID cases. Still running at below a 10% positive/test ratio and continuing to see a low level of positive results each day. I wouldn’t be surprised if the parks open before the resorts to encourage local only attendance for a few weeks while Disney gets thing back on line. Obviously, the Florida economy can’t survive without tourism so the need to reopen for all guests is significant. I’ll continue to stand by my prediction of a mid-June opening (locals only) with a late June opening of all resorts.

While I disagree on your timeframe of opening, I agree that I could see parks opening first. Makes no sense to have resorts open but not even 1 park.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m not referring to Disney

You should be...ultimately every discussions these days is about resuming their pursuit for money in strange days

 

[carolina_yankee]

That’s all great...

But in the end it puts a restriction on future use. DVC is perfectly in their rights to do this...in the frame of longterm business/satisfaction...I wouldn’t have done it.

It is what it is.

It doesn’t personally affect me...it just makes it look cheap. They look liked the overbooked, mass produced vacation factory they always claim not to be as they turn the screws.

About 3 really awful looking moves in the last few years...maybe more than I’m forgetting...

This one was a pure number’s game. The number of points sold per resort equally 100% occupancy year round (with some exceptions for points Disney owns to cover pulling rooms out of service for maintenance issues, guest recovery, etc.)

You can’t put more points into the system and expect it to work without reducing an inflow of points elsewhere, thus the temporary 50% reduction in borrowing.

Members lost points due to the closures. Many of us thought the story would be “too bad, so sad,” but Disney came up with something that, though imperfect, is a solution. Nothing cheap about it.

However, this scenario illustrates why DVC resorts will have to be among the first to open, or else the shutdown continues to compound the problem. DVC are the only guests that have non-refundable contracts for use of the resorts, so they absolutely should be at the head of the line for resort openings.

 

[Hawg G]

Where are the airlines at? How about the rest of Orlando? Do you open up to on property only? For how long?
Then how long do you run with tiny capacity? When do you ramp up?

Pretty sure if WDW and/or Universal opened, the airlines would immediately add nonstop flights to Orlando as quick as they could fill them up. They would EASILY get a large amount of folks onboard in the weeks that would pass between announcement and re-opening day.

 

[peter11435]

You should be...ultimately every discussions these days is about resuming their pursuit for money in strange days

I think you’ve misunderstood

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think you’ve misunderstood

Not really...are we now suggesting that reopening plans aren’t centered around finances?

to be fair...that may be at its lowest level of concern in decades...maybe only 85%?

 

[seabreezept813]

Just an interesting anecdote to add about whether states will consider local tourists only. We are from MA and friends of ours had their July trips to ME canceled and were told they would not allow any visitors from MA. Wonder if this would happen in a state like Florida.

 

[Peter Pan's Shadow]

Florida continues to show really strong data when it comes to COVID cases. Still running at below a 10% positive/test ratio and continuing to see a low level of positive results each day. I wouldn’t be surprised if the parks open before the resorts to encourage local only attendance for a few weeks while Disney gets thing back on line. Obviously, the Florida economy can’t survive without tourism so the need to reopen for all guests is significant. I’ll continue to stand by my prediction of a mid-June opening (locals only) with a late June opening of all resorts.

I've seen reports that retail employees in Disney Springs are in working and cleaning stores getting them ready, but not being told any dates. Also that different equipment is being delivered to the parks. This may mean anything or nothing, but since we have trips booked for June, July and October right now, I'm optimic for 2 of those three. But then I hear that the Governor says no sporting events, movies or concerts for a very long time....I think amusement parks are in that same category, so I'm confused.

 

[mhaftman7]

This one was a pure number’s game. The number of points sold per resort equally 100% occupancy year round (with some exceptions for points Disney owns to cover pulling rooms out of service for maintenance issues, guest recovery, etc.)

You can’t put more points into the system and expect it to work without reducing an inflow of points elsewhere, thus the temporary 50% reduction in borrowing.

Members lost points due to the closures. Many of us thought the story would be “too bad, so sad,” but Disney came up with something that, though imperfect, is a solution. Nothing cheap about it.

However, this scenario illustrates why DVC resorts will have to be among the first to open, or else the shutdown continues to compound the problem. DVC are the only guests that have non-refundable contracts for use of the resorts, so they absolutely should be at the head of the line for resort openings.

They may not be refundable, but they are re-sellable. I’d like to know the number of points permanently lost. Yes trips were canceled, but current and future year points weren’t lost.

Part of me is actually disgusted that some people’s priorities at this time is which level of Disney elitism needs to be satiated first. I hope all of you get prioritized as you are hoping. I’m just hoping to be able to go.

 

[mhaftman7]

I've seen reports that retail employees in Disney Springs are in working and cleaning stores getting them ready, but not being told any dates. Also that different equipment is being delivered to the parks. This may mean anything or nothing, but since we have trips booked for June, July and October right now, I'm optimic for 2 of those three. But then I hear that the Governor says no sporting events, movies or concerts for a very long time....I think amusement parks are in that same category, so I'm confused.

I don’t see sporting events and theme parks in the same category. Sporting events are 20k-ish+ people in a more condensed space for 90+ minutes. Theme parks have a larger area and a more fluid and consistently serviceable environment.

 

[peter11435]

Not really...are we now suggesting that reopening plans aren’t centered around finances?

to be fair...that may be at its lowest level of concern in decades...maybe only 85%?

You are clearly misunderstanding. Obviously Disney’s plans are centered around finances and it’s in there best interest to open sooner. They are the overly optimistics in the equation because they financially benefit from that. But the overly pessimistics that paint a picture of remaining closed for the year and long lasting societal changes also benefit from their portrayal of reality. Neither side can be trusted because both have financial incentives to mislead.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sporting events are not a complex like wdw.

I have no idea when they’ll open...the more prognostication about “it looks good” for reopening Disney parks should be met with a
Metric ton of salt.

Nobody know anything at this point and the data does not warrant less caution.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You are clearly misunderstanding. Obviously Disney’s plans are centered around finances and it’s in there best interest to open sooner. They are the overly optimistics in the equation because they financially benefit from that. But the overly pessimistics that paint a picture of remaining closed for the year and long lasting societal changes also benefit from their portrayal of reality. Neither side can be trusted because both have financial incentives to mislead.

The comment I was originally referring to was your response that “they don’t” believe they’ll be closed the rest of the year.

I agree...but I would never think they would believe or promote that internally. There’s too much money Involved for them ever to take that stance.

Anyway...this is going too deep. It’s not that complicated of comments

 

[peter11435]

I've seen reports that retail employees in Disney Springs are in working and cleaning stores getting them ready, but not being told any dates. Also that different equipment is being delivered to the parks. This may mean anything or nothing, but since we have trips booked for June, July and October right now, I'm optimic for 2 of those three. But then I hear that the Governor says no sporting events, movies or concerts for a very long time....I think amusement parks are in that same category, so I'm confused.

The governor is going to encourage theme parks and tourism to resume as soon as it’s even remotely viable. The state can’t function without tourism money rolling in and needs the tourism related service jobs to open back up and get out of the unemployment queue.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This one was a pure number’s game. The number of points sold per resort equally 100% occupancy year round (with some exceptions for points Disney owns to cover pulling rooms out of service for maintenance issues, guest recovery, etc.)

You can’t put more points into the system and expect it to work without reducing an inflow of points elsewhere, thus the temporary 50% reduction in borrowing.

Members lost points due to the closures. Many of us thought the story would be “too bad, so sad,” but Disney came up with something that, though imperfect, is a solution. Nothing cheap about it.

However, this scenario illustrates why DVC resorts will have to be among the first to open, or else the shutdown continues to compound the problem. DVC are the only guests that have non-refundable contracts for use of the resorts, so they absolutely should be at the head of the line for resort openings.

I don’t disagree with you...

I just believe it to still be shortsighted (that’s what the Iger era will be known for...) and not a good look.

I do understand the numbers game though - albeit in a simpler time in DVCs history - and I warned of numbers problems in March...the engine can’t run with too many passengers on the bus.

This move is disappointed - but not surprising.
Other recent moves by the customers - supporting the cut of resell benefits, “copper creek” and Caribbean villas would tell DVC exactly where they stand: total control over an unwise consumer group.

They’re using the tools they’ve been given.

 

[SteveV]

I’m seeing a lot of comments saying that it’s in Disney’s best interests to reopen as soon as possible. Can I ask: is it in their best interests?

taking any company example, fixed costs are fixed and nothing much can be done about those. If you’re in Disney’s position maybe you arrange borrowing of $5 billion to cover these in case you need it if this crisis goes on for a while.

but then after that I would say that the biggest expense for most if not all businesses is wages. So, if this is the case and you have furloughed your workers, you have reduced this cost as much as possible. If you were to reopen, you then have to get those employees back with no guarantee about how many visitors you will have and how much money you will be receiving. So surely it’s in the best interest of the business to be cautious about reopening as the wages are currently covered from elsewhere? If you then add in the possibility of negative publicity surrounding further outbreaks etc again it helps to be cautious.

Also, you do not want to spend Money restocking ponchos and food only to have to give them away again because you can’t sell the food in the short term.

now you might want to make people think you might open sooner because if people do book at least you are getting some cash flow and in this unprecedented situation you can easily cancel or move the reservations. Also because people are booking knowing that covid is around, insurance etc will not pay out as it is a known risk.

but the parks rely on more than the direct bubble as well. Are the supply chains in place? Are the health support services in the area able to cope with the normal day to day guest related medical issues in addition to the covid ones?