Rumor WDW is considering a Universal-like Express Pass

[MrPromey]

But that is why I said it would only be available to select guests, so you already have to be paying for a club level room at a deluxe resort before you are even able to spend the $200/day in my scenario

If it is open to everyon I agree it will need to be higher, probably like as much as $400/day for MK on busy days (much more than that and starting to get into VIP tour range if you multiply by 10 people that the tours cover up to)

Oh, I'm not talking about inventory. I'm talking about the Disney tax.

If volume were a real concern to them, they could just limit the number available per day like Universal does.

Universal doesn't limit their usage by pricing guests out*, they just slap up that proverbial "sold out" sign.

What I'm saying is I don't see Disney being that "generous" on pricing based on everything else they do.

Do you?

*You have to keep in mind that Universal's pricing strategy is also based on making this benefit a value-add to the resort guests and top-tier AP holders so that plays into what they put retail pricing at, too. With Express Pass Unlimited being as much as $319.99 per person per day (plus tax) suddenly, a deluxe room at Universal priced way less than Disney begins to look like even more of a bargain for your family of five when you're potentially getting "over $1.5k per day" in park perks thrown in for "free".

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Sigh. Can we just go back to standby lines only?

Well, the data breach showed a file that indicated Disney made $724m from genie+ at WDW, so if they get rid of a paid skip the line that has to come from another revenue source

Plus I think there is a portion of the guest population that wants/demand some sort of skip the line so I just don't see it going to all standby

Personally I would at least like to see them drastically reduce the number of attractions that utilize LL .... High capacity rides and Omnimovers (haunted Mansion, small world, etc) really don't need it

 

[tanc]

tbh I would enjoy something like this, I hate using my phone all to constantly look for LL openings. I would not mind if I could pay, get a bunch of passes and just use them whenever.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Oh, I'm not talking about inventory. I'm talking about the Disney tax.

If volume were a real concern to them, they could just limit the number available per day like Universal does.

Universal doesn't limit their usage by pricing guests out, they just slap up that proverbial "sold out" sign.

What I'm saying is I don't see Disney being that "generous" on pricing based on everything else they do.

Do you?

Depends what they are marketing this as.

If it is more a perk of staying in the high priced rooms (that would also then go up in cost) then I think it needs to be something that isn't crazy priced and then still get more total $ as demand for those rooms goes up

If just on it's own then it will be much more expensive but still needs to be less than a VIP tour

Those are $450-900/hour with minimum 7 hours, so $3,150-$6,300 total, but cover up to 10 guests, so $315-$630 per person .... So this premier LL pass would need to be less than that

So thinking $200-$400

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

let's play a game.. assuming this happens... what do you think the price will be per park?

Ten times the cost of LLMP for that day, per person.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I think there would be 2 goals of this new system.
1) Increase profits
2) Keep LL use approximately equal to what it currently is

The way to do this is to give out less LL slots to the LLMP users (which will be taken by the LLPA users), but also price LLPA higher than their capacity use.

For instance lets say Haunted mansion gives 300 LLMPs away each hour. Now instead they give out 5% less at 285 per hour. With the assumption that 15 LLPA users would come during that hour.

Now for profits, if we assume the average LLMP user gets 5 LLs a day and LLPA would get 15. LLPA simply needs to cost more than 3X the cost of LLMP.

The winners of this are Disney ($) and LLPA users (more rides)
The loser of this is the LLMP user (will get less rides as those "slots" are now taken by LLPA)
Average standby wait time wouldn't be affected (it would eb and flow more based on how many LLPA arrive). I assume

Disney would quickly learn the LLPA guest patterns and smooth out the total LL usage by throttling the LLMP slots given per hour.

Disney also needs to fix or better maintain their attractions for uptime. TBA is horendous, Rise is down a lot too, this doesn’t give me much faith in the new things they plan to build either.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

Is Disney having trouble filling the Deluxe resorts?

YES

 

[lentesta]

It's always possible they do something like this. I'm not doubting there's something like "Premier Pass" in unused MDE code.

It would affect a whole bunch of well-established services for which DPEP probably makes $1B per year. And it would affect basic park ops.

The amount of analysis, risk mitigation, and planning this would take should be enormous. Hundreds of people would be involved, across multiple teams. For comparison, the verbiage on the DAS change went through a couple dozen iterations, various focus groups, and > 6 months of internal review, plus god knows what from legal.

This would be an order of magnitude more complex.

We haven't seen a survey about anything like this. No insider has said anything about it. The last time I spoke with someone about FY25 funded DPEP projects, this didn't come up.

Like I said, it's possible that this happens. They announced 4 new DCL ships and nobody I know at DCL had a clue that was coming. So they can keep things quiet.

If this is a general-purpose product, and not some limited "only club level/only X per day sold/$600-per-person" thing, not hearing about it first would be one for the ages.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Is Disney having trouble filling the Deluxe resorts? That would be the only reason to do this.

Umm... no?

 

[GhostHost1000]

Ten times the cost of LLMP for that day, per person.

So upwards of $300pp per day?
That won’t work

I was thinking $100 or $150

 

[MrPromey]

Depends what they are marketing this as.

If it is more a perk of staying in the high priced rooms (that would also then go up in cost) then I think it needs to be something that isn't crazy priced and then still get more total $ as demand for those rooms goes up

If just on it's own then it will be much more expensive but still needs to be less than a VIP tour

Those are $450-900/hour with minimum 7 hours, so $3,150-$6,300 total, but cover up to 10 guests, so $315-$630 per person .... So this premier LL pass would need to be less than that

So thinking $200-$400

Up to ten guests but what's the average guest group size visiting the parks? If you're a family of four, or say, a Disney adult couple, they have a whole lot of runway for pricing that won't compete with the VIP tours, at all.

 

[Andrew25]

let's play a game.. assuming this happens... what do you think the price will be per park?

My guess is it'll be priced dependent on the park, somewhere in the $150-350 range. Universal goes as high as $310 for 2-park express passes.

I'd imagine there would be a massive variance between what the DAK pass goes for compared to MK. In a few months, it'll only be Everest, Safaris, Navi, and FoP that'd justify an express system.

For reference, Universal's pricing does vary significantly in range...
USF: $90 to $260 -> can be used at 6 major attractions (Rockit/ET/MIB/Gringotts/Mummy/Transformers) and at an additional 7 rides...*
IOA: $125 to $300 -> can be used at 5 major attractions (Hulk/Spider-Man/Forbidden Journey/Velocicoaster/River Adventure) and at an additional 9 rides*
2 Parks: $135 to $310

Averaging about ~$13 a ride

*Excluded live shows since Universal shows are quite easy to attend with no need for express.

 

[HauntedPirate]

So upwards of $300pp per day?
That won’t work

I was thinking $100 or $150

I'll meet you both in the middle - $200pp/day. With no hopping. If they add hopping, figure a 50% tax on that.

 

[MrPromey]

So upwards of $300pp per day?
That won’t work

I was thinking $100 or $150

No way they'd ever price it that low. Again, Universal's most basic single-park express pass can be up to $289.99 (plus tax) per day.

And that's in parks that you don't really need a skip-the-line system for on most days.

 

[GoofGoof]

Ten times the cost of LLMP for that day, per person.

That seems about right. If LLMP ranges from $20-$40 then this would go for $200-$400. That would likely keep the number of people buying low enough to work. In theory if 50% of guests were buying LLMP on average per day and you charge 10X the price for a premium service then you only need 5% of guests to buy in to break even on profits. They need to account for lost individual LL sales (assuming those rides would be included in the premium service) and maybe some lost VIP tour sales so that 5% would probably have to be closer to 10% of guests buying to break even. I would hope that dropping down to 10% of guests using a line skipping product would make the standby lines much shorter overall.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I'll meet you both in the middle - $200pp/day. With no hopping. If they add hopping, figure a 50% tax on that.

I’m sure Disney will offer this for everyone staying in deluxe resorts like Uni does right?

 

[wdwmagic]

It's always possible they do something like this. I'm not doubting there's something like "Premier Pass" in unused MDE code.

It would affect a whole bunch of well-established services for which DPEP probably makes $1B per year. And it would affect basic park ops.

The amount of analysis, risk mitigation, and planning this would take should be enormous. Hundreds of people would be involved, across multiple teams. For comparison, the verbiage on the DAS change went through a couple dozen iterations, various focus groups, and > 6 months of internal review, plus god knows what from legal.

This would be an order of magnitude more complex.

We haven't seen a survey about anything like this. No insider has said anything about it. The last time I spoke with someone about FY25 funded DPEP projects, this didn't come up.

Like I said, it's possible that this happens. They announced 4 new DCL ships and nobody I know at DCL had a clue that was coming. So they can keep things quiet.

If this is a general-purpose product, and not some limited "only club level/only X per day sold/$600-per-person" thing, not hearing about it first would be one for the ages.

I think this sums it up very well. I don't see this happening without some pretty severe restrictions.

 

[MrPromey]

Now for profits, if we assume the average LLMP user gets 5 LLs a day and LLPA would get 15. LLPA simply needs to cost more than 3X the cost of LLMP.

Except the average for LL is under 3 per day due to attraction inventory presented and return times. That throws your idea of how this would work all out of wack when most people aren't even getting 3 attractions out of the current system.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's always possible they do something like this. I'm not doubting there's something like "Premier Pass" in unused MDE code.

It would affect a whole bunch of well-established services for which DPEP probably makes $1B per year. And it would affect basic park ops.

The amount of analysis, risk mitigation, and planning this would take should be enormous. Hundreds of people would be involved, across multiple teams. For comparison, the verbiage on the DAS change went through a couple dozen iterations, various focus groups, and > 6 months of internal review, plus god knows what from legal.

This would be an order of magnitude more complex.

We haven't seen a survey about anything like this. No insider has said anything about it. The last time I spoke with someone about FY25 funded DPEP projects, this didn't come up.

Like I said, it's possible that this happens. They announced 4 new DCL ships and nobody I know at DCL had a clue that was coming. So they can keep things quiet.

If this is a general-purpose product, and not some limited "only club level/only X per day sold/$600-per-person" thing, not hearing about it first would be one for the ages.

Good to hear. Even though we are discussing how this product may work I am not sure I actually want to see it happen. This one may be better as an academic debate.

 

[Ayla]

They should consider a pass with no rides included at a discount - if it were cheap enough I'd buy one once in a while. Eat, Parade, fireworks and out.

I've given up my annual passes. For the next few years I will only attend parties MNSSHP, MVMCP, and dovetail with a DCL cruise.

Weaning myself off the Mouse.

Cold turkey is much better.