Rumor Version of MaxPass coming to WDW in May?

[PirateFrank]

Oh...I don’t dispute that. I have little doubt they have done Frankenstein experiments. It’s win/win for them.

My contention is full ride capacity isn’t enough with fastpass. Hasn’t been for the entire Iger era.

So those type of experiments are moot.
They can’t be implemented.

He inherited a lead and squandered it. That’s his main flaw as a park manager.

Can’t sit on parks for 5/10 years at a clip. It would never have worked. That’s why they just aren’t as good of days as they used to be.

Hard to argue with any of this!

 

[PirateFrank]

The universal pass is $99/$129 a day...

So that’s a $250-$300 daily ticket.

If you want that...enjoy the parks while you can. They won’t be able to get the masses needed to keep the revenues up and the parks open.

Disney parks are “mass” destinations...not elite ones. DNA

I think thats what makes the universal pass work. It limits access to it based on a pretty darn high cost (and drives up beds in their deluxe resorts at the same time). While I dont think WDW can simply do the same thing Uni has done, I do think they can price an add on that would work - and it appears they are working on something to do just that.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

So a fastpass that abnormally pushes a standby wait past that 'upper limit' will have an immediate spill over factor to other attractions. Considering the fact that there are attractions that should have never had fastpass queues installed on them...it creates a situation where every attraction is abnormally jammed. Thats no good for everyone.

I'd argue that FastPass pushes the upper limit itself. Maybe you're willing to wait 40 minutes for everything but you're willing to wait 60 minutes for some things if you know you'll get to walk right on to other things.

 

[PirateFrank]

I'd argue that FastPass pushes the upper limit itself. Maybe you're willing to wait 40 minutes for everything but you're willing to wait 60 minutes for some things if you know you'll get to walk right on to other things.

Sure. Hard to disagree with that. Your example is probably lived by everyone who's had a fastpass open at 1PM, walked past an attraction at noon and said "65 minutes? That will dump us out just in time to get on X"

This whole thing is a very dynamic ecosystem....because its driven by people and their behavior at a given point in time. I'm not sure I'm even right on my assertions regarding fastpass. I just know that as soon as FP became a fully saturated system, I found myself spending alot more time in queues...everywhere....and especially on attractions where I never waited before.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think thats what makes the universal pass work. It limits access to it based on a pretty darn high cost (and drives up beds in their deluxe resorts at the same time). While I dont think WDW can simply do the same thing Uni has done, I do think they can price an add on that would work - and it appears they are working on something to do just that.

The problem is Disney wouldn’t sell enough to activate the crowd control features they have to get out of fastpass.

There would be 3 hour
Waits all over the park with those that didn’t pay. Not sustainable over the year

 

[UNCgolf]

But standby guests and FastPass guests are the same people. Yeah, maybe you have to wait longer in the Space Mountain standby line but you get to ride Big Thunder with no wait, so you're no worse off.

I think that's definitely true in the Magic Kingdom, but less true in the other parks (especially AK and EPCOT) because they don't have enough rides to make it balance out. You might not be able to get a FastPass for one of the headliners and then you end up skipping a relatively short line with one of your FPs and stuck in a super long one for something like Flight of Passage. Or you just don't ride it at all because you don't want to wait 3 hours standby.

 

[kong1802]

I think that's definitely true in the Magic Kingdom, but less true in the other parks (especially AK and EPCOT) because they don't have enough rides to make it balance out. You might not be able to get a FastPass for one of the headliners and then you end up skipping a relatively short line with one of your FPs and end up stuck in a super long one for something like Flight of Passage. Or you just don't ride it at all because you don't want to wait 3 hours standby.

Or you get there an hour early and elbow your way to the promised land....

That's another facet I am fascinated to watch. What happens to rope drop when the on siters get first dibs?

Will you even be able to rope drop the latest and greatest anymore?

Without ponying up for something?

Yes, I'm cynical.........

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think that's definitely true in the Magic Kingdom, but less true in the other parks (especially AK and EPCOT) because they don't have enough rides to make it balance out. You might not be able to get a FastPass for one of the headliners and then you end up skipping a relatively short line with one of your FPs and stuck in a super long one for something like Flight of Passage. Or you just don't ride it at all because you don't want to wait 3 hours standby.

Yes, there are distortions for specific guests and at specific attractions. But averaged over every attraction and every guest, FastPass results in net less wait time and net more attractions experienced due to filling slack capacity at rides that would otherwise run less-than-full.

 

[Purduevian]

If people are interested I did a thought experiment on what MK wait times would like like without any fastpass (with 2018 attendance and capacity.
TLDR: Lots of assumptions, so it isn't perfect. Standby wait times increase by ~25mins with fastpass. The "break even" point is if a guest gets 4 fastpasses a day to wait in line the same amount they would have without any FP.

I should probably revisit this to change assumptions on many things, but I don't have the time right now.

Lurking around these forums for awhile I have often heard things like "[Insert Omnivore of choice] would not have a wait time if it wasn't for FP+". So I decided to do a thought experiment to see how Fast Pass+ effects wait times around the Magic Kingdom.

Experiment 1: NO FAST PASS
Assumptions:
1) 20,450,000 people visit Magic Kingdom Each Year (from TEA report), meaning an average day at MK has 56,027 guests
2) Approximately 25% of people are not on an attraction or in line. They are eating, shopping, watching a stage show show, going to the bathroom, at a walk through attraction, taking selfies, walking, ect. This leaves 42,021 people either on a ride or in line.
3)Every attraction is currently at max capacity (people on the ride)
4) Wait times are approximated manually to get close to 42,021 in line or on ride.

Data:
View attachment 315067
Results:
Total People on Rides: 7,852
Total People in Standby Lines: 34,241
Average Standby Wait time: 41 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day: 11-12

Experiment 2: WITH FAST PASS PLUS

Assumptions:
1) Assumptions 1,3, and 4 are the same as experiment 1
2) Assumption 2 is changed to 30% of people instead of 25%, this is because the ultimate goal of Fast Pass, to get more people eating, shopping, and out of line.
3) 50% of all ride capacity is dedicated to the Fast Pass line. I really don't know what the number is and I believe it varies by ride, but 50% is good enough for this.
4) Average Fast Pass Wait time is 8 minutes. Like Assumption 3, I don't know what the number is, but this is good enough.

Data:
View attachment 315070
Results:
Total People on rides: 7,852
Total People in FP Line: 2,495
Total People in Standby Line: 28,896
Average Standby Wait time: 66 minutes
Average Guest Wait time: 61 minutes
Number of attractions hit in a 12 hour day without any Fast Pass: 7-8

Conclusion:
Fast Pass increases the average Standby Wait time by 25 minutes.
The "break even" point for guests is about 4 fast passes in a day to make up for the increased standby lines

Please let me know if you see any errors or have any questions!

 

[pdude81]

Or you get there an hour early and elbow your way to the promised land....

That's another facet I am fascinated to watch. What happens to rope drop when the on siters get first dibs?

Will you even be able to rope drop the latest and greatest anymore?

Without ponying up for something?

Yes, I'm cynical.........

Do you mean Extra Magic Minutes? This isn't exactly new... just shortened

 

[UNCgolf]

Do you mean Extra Magic Minutes? This isn't exactly new... just shortened

It was only at one park a day before, though (and sometimes in the evening instead of the morning). Now every park is open early to resort guests.

 

[kong1802]

Do you mean Extra Magic Minutes? This isn't exactly new... just shortened

It's new that its at all 4 parks every morning.

I don't know if that translates to anything measurable, but if it does, gonna suck a tad for locals and off siters (the riff raff).

I like the branding!

 

[CastAStone]

The flaw in your math is fastpass surges...you’re not in “2 lines at once”...they take the standby line if you’re not there and fill seats. If you’re in line at big thunder in the standby...they don’t hold your spot in the fastpass line at splash.

I’m oversimplifying too...but fastpass doesn’t cause the lines...with the exception of fastpass+...where people booked and use fast passes on A,B,C tickets that many would never have used otherwise. That causes a ripple effect across the park. Some rides don’t warrant standby waits of 30 minutes+...they weren’t design to have computer distribution predictions.

My experience is people use their prebooked
Fastpass no matter what due to fear that they can’t get on others stuff.

And in a place like Epcot...how much does that suck?
We pay for it...ridiculous.

Yes...The reason FP increases waits overall is that it takes people who wouldn’t wait more than 40 minutes for BTMRR and lets them on when the wait is an hour. Instead of distributing rice capacity by willingness to wait for an attraction (which is a good proxy for desire to ride an attraction), it distributes most of it in a matter much closer to random, and the remaining goes to the people with the greatest tolerance to wait.

Every time the wait time is longer than a person who gets on with FP would have waited, the standby wait effectively gets 1 person longer, because without FP that person would have turned and walked away.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Do you mean Extra Magic Minutes? This isn't exactly new... just shortened

It was only at one park a day before, though (and sometimes in the evening instead of the morning). Now every park is open early to resort guests.

It's new that its at all 4 parks every morning.

I don't know if that translates to anything measurable, but if it does, gonna suck a tad for locals and off siters (the riff raff).

I like the branding!

30 minutes is meaningless.

This is a PR ploy for high cost onsite hotels

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Do you mean Extra Magic Minutes? This isn't exactly new... just shortened

They doubled the amount of "extra time for resort guests". They used to do one hour per day. Now they're doing two hours per day, but split four ways.

The operational difference is that there's no longer any option for offsite guests to arrive to the parks at the same time as onsite guests. Onsite guests get a head start at every park, every day.

30 minutes is meaningless.

This is a PR ploy for high cost onsite hotels

Completely disagree. I'd much rather have 30 minutes at every park every day than one hour per day that all the resort guests swarm to.

 

[aliceismad]

If people are interested I did a thought experiment on what MK wait times would like like without any fastpass (with 2018 attendance and capacity.
TLDR: Lots of assumptions, so it isn't perfect. Standby wait times increase by ~25mins with fastpass. The "break even" point is if a guest gets 4 fastpasses a day to wait in line the same amount they would have without any FP.

I should probably revisit this to change assumptions on many things, but I don't have the time right now.

I assume this would depend on whether the guest is a savvy FPer though. I mean, if I book FPs for the rides I know (per data) usually have the longest lines, I'm probably benefitting more than the guest who goes "Oh! Living with the Land sounds fun. Let's get a FP for that."

 

[CastAStone]

30 minutes is meaningless.

This is a PR ploy for high cost onsite hotels

It’s not meaningless if you’re offsite and when you get there there’s already 5000 people in line for Flight of Passage.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It’s not meaningless if you’re offsite and when you get there there’s already 5000 people in line for Flight of Passage.

Lol get rekt plebs.

 

[UNCgolf]

30 minutes is meaningless.

This is a PR ploy for high cost onsite hotels

I agree to an extent -- I don't think it's a great benefit when the window is only 30 minutes; there are probably going to be a lot of guests who simply can't get there in time to take advantage of it due to bus schedules, etc.

With that said, it is a giant disincentive to staying off-site for anyone interested in rope-dropping. It will be impossible to do.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I agree. I don't think it's a great benefit when the window is only 30 minutes; there are probably going to be a lot of guests who simply can't get there in time to take advantage of it do to bus schedules, etc.

With that said, it is a big disincentive to stay off-site for anyone interested in rope-dropping. It's literally impossible to do so now.

You can't have it both ways. It can't be an insignificant benefit for resort guests AND a significant hinderance for non-resort guests.