Throughout the first 30 years of Walt Disney World's (WDW) existence, WDW Guests paid for their own transportation from Orlando International Airport to WDW.
This model worked for decades. Hotel occupancy remained high and corporate Disney built more hotels to meet ever increasing demand.
9/11 changed everything. Annual hotel occupancy plummeted to 77%. This was a historically bad number for WDW, unprecedented really.
During the years that followed, Disney tried to increase occupancy by offering discounts. Despite these discounts, occupancy remained stubbornly low. Even worse, the important Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) (i.e. how much Guests spend in each occupied room) flatlined. The discounts were not attracting onsite Guests but were hurting revenue. Something needed to be done.
In an attempt to solve these duel problems, Disney created Disney's Magical Express (DME) in 2005.
Maybe if Disney offered free airport transportation, more Guests would stay onsite. By staying onsite without alternate means of transportation, perhaps these Guests would spend all their vacation dollars at WDW. With hotel occupancy and PRGS stuck in a rut, anything was worth a try.
As it turned out, DME succeeded beyond all expectations. From 2006 to 2008, hotel occupancy jumped to an incredible 89% while PRGS increased 13.1.%. DME was a major winner for corporate Disney.
Fast-forward to 2019.
By 2019, annual hotel occupancy was over 90%. For those who might be unfamiliar with how hotel bookings work, once room occupancy reaches levels such as these, it becomes difficult to fill additional rooms. Check-out dates don't line up with check-in dates. Increasing occupancy becomes nearly impossible. Disney's corporate leadership reiterated this point during several earnings calls. From corporate Disney's perspective, the hotels were "full" in 2019.
Third-party services such as Uber created a second issue. With transportation being easier and cheaper, Guests were leaving the "Disney Bubble", meaning Disney was capturing less of their vacation dollars. Indeed, despite hotel price increases of over 5%, PRGS increased by only 2.3% in 2019, the lowest since the Great Recession of 2009.
DME no longer seemed to be needed to fill rooms, while it also no longer was an effective tool for capturing onsite vacation dollars.
The corporate wheels started to turn. DME was expensive but not working. Why not get rid of DME?
By eliminating DME, Disney might lose bookings but some of those lost bookings would be filled by other Guests, Guests who had been unable to get the rooms they wanted due to high occupancy. Besides, even if occupancy dropped a bit, the cost of providing DME to all hotel Guests was greater than revenue that might be lost due to a modest decrease in hotel occupancy.
Ultimately, DME is costing Disney more than it's worth and you, the WDW vacationer, are going to pay the price.