News UBS: WDW Attendance Predicted to Recover in 2023

[DisneyDebRob]

Domestically everything should be fine for G8 countries by then. However international travel will not resume until everyone in the world gets vaccinated. We have seen the devastation of the LA variant, SA variant and Brazil variants plus we don't know how many more variants will pop up. Health comes before the economy - if everyone is dead you don't have an economy

Exactly right. A healthy people has always turned into a healthy economy. Been that was for hundreds of years and will continue.

 

[gorilla1964]

There is also a basic understanding it seems from most analysts that things like travel, etc. simply have to get back to mostly normal within the next year or two. We can stay hidden away in our homes for years but we won't have much of a world left whenever we feel that its safe enough to go back outside.

Virus mutation is part of...well...it being a virus. New strains of covid will be popping up for years if not decades. Analysts and experts must continue to project, based on info, etc. what they believe could happen in the future.

You can choose to ignore it. Others can choose to take that perspective and become better informed.

If they would open up completely with no restrictions they would be at capacity in a few weeks.

 

[SirLink]

I'm sorry but let's just disagree and move on. Covid doesn't have a 100% death rate so not everyone will die, in fact very very few will compared to global population of everyone were to get it.

You're basically laying out a scenario where the world will have to go into a never ending period of new vaccines for new strains (there will be new strains for decades to come in all likelihood), no global travel, and economies will just have to deal with it.

Doesn't work that way. The economic impact and health impact of lockdowns, etc. will kill far, far more people (look at the overdose death rate in California, for example). This is also who Cali is now sarting to open back up regardless of covid rates.

In 2023, new strains or not, things will be mostly back to normal. They simply have to be, we have no other real choice.

In 2023, as we have seen the newer strains that have been found to be both more infectious and more deadlier via early data from here in the UK, then we as a global population may have to abandon global travel. We have already been told my multiple scientists at least in the UK multiple vaccinations for specific strains of covid-19.

Plus covid-19 has long term consequences with Long Covid-19 which affects the lungs and organs for many years to come.

 

[John park hopper]

I would not bet on anything-- covid may be under control but there are far to many economic variables which may rear their ugly heads in the next 4 years.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

It’s going to take that long for consumer confidence to come back.

 

[TraderSam]

This is what these people do for a living so your comment is slightly rude.

This prediction/estimate was likely put together after they spent hours upon hours researching travel trends, covid projections, traveler sentiment, etc.

I wouldn't be so wick to brush it off. Also the dates sound plausible to me. Guess we'll see.

I understand your point about respecting analysts' knowledge and agree with it to a certain degree. Hopefully they include a list of caveats in their report, as any analyst should do in this situation.

Variables to consider include, but are not limited to:
1. The virus itself and what it may or may not do (mutations, etc.)
2. Government responses to the virus, including lockdowns, restrictions, and vaccine distribution
3. Economic conditions due to government and public responses to the virus
4. Consumer confidence based on economic conditions resulting from government and public responses to the virus

Taking into account that each of these variables can act independently, not to mention any other curve balls that might be thrown, it's basically spitballing at this point to project the stabilization of financial performance for a leisure or hospitality company like Disney Parks.

 

[havoc315]

In 2023, as we have seen the newer strains that have been found to be both more infectious and more deadlier via early data from here in the UK, then we as a global population may have to abandon global travel. We have already been told my multiple scientists at least in the UK multiple vaccinations for specific strains of covid-19.

Plus covid-19 has long term consequences with Long Covid-19 which affects the lungs and organs for many years to come.

The general trend is that viruses become less deadly as they mutate over time. Yes, there can be more deadly strains, but natural selection pushes towards less deadly overall: Highly deadly strains are less likely to spread, since a dead host can't spread it, and because more public precautions will be taken. As the virus become less deadly, there become fewer barriers to spread. Which encourages the less deadly mutations to more successfully permeate over the long term.

Thus, the Flu of 1918 fizzled out by about 1920, without any vaccine. The more deadly strains had faded away, and the population has built up a level of infection immunity.

Impossible for the greatest of experts to precisely what Covid conditions will be in 2022-2023. But it's fairly likely to either "go away" or simply be something where we learn to live with a low level of it persisting.

 

[SirLink]

The general trend is that viruses become less deadly as they mutate over time. Yes, there can be more deadly strains, but natural selection pushes towards less deadly overall: Highly deadly strains are less likely to spread, since a dead host can't spread it, and because more public precautions will be taken. As the virus become less deadly, there become fewer barriers to spread. Which encourages the less deadly mutations to more successfully permeate over the long term.

Thus, the Flu of 1918 fizzled out by about 1920, without any vaccine. The more deadly strains had faded away, and the population has built up a level of infection immunity.

Impossible for the greatest of experts to precisely what Covid conditions will be in 2022-2023. But it's fairly likely to either "go away" or simply be something where we learn to live with a low level of it persisting.

Well the new strains are becoming the dominate strains and initial results show they are more infectious and more deadly than the original strain.

The general trend take 100s of years to evolve downwards as you describe. Spanish Flu otherwise known as H1N1 has come and gone over time. The main reason for it disappearing appears that it ran out of hosts as there was a) less traveling, b) higher adherence to local measures after the second spike and c)better health lifestyles, i.e. less processed food

Until we can vaccinate everyone in the world - it would make more sense to hold off on Global travel as the more times the virus jumps between hosts the more mutations the higher chance of even more infectious and more deadly strain will pop up.

The W.H.O. has already stated the pandemic will be around till late 2023. Don't get why y'all can't just wait.

 

[techgeek]

Don’t forget the WDW travel market does not exist in a vacuum, but also relies on other moving parts... like, for instance, airlines.

Airlines can’t ramp up capacity without demand, and will be cautious to do so because of the costs involved in restaffing and bringing mothballed fleet back online. It’s going to be a slow and calculated process, even the best case scenarios don’t show a full recovery until 2023/24.

If there is a rush of pent up demand on air travel, it’s going to hit up against supply pretty quickly. That’s going to trickle through to how many people can actually show up at WDW, even if they want to.

 

[Touchdown]

Worldwide we might be dealing with Covid, but I do think the US will be Covid free later this year, we are really ramping up vaccine distribution, and look to be on track to be at that 70-80% by sometime this fall. Barring a strain that evades the vaccine, I think domestic travel will be back later this year. International travel is another story...

Although I could see a pact with Canada forming which would allow US-Canada travel to return sooner.

 

[James J]

Well the new strains are becoming the dominate strains and initial results show they are more infectious and more deadly than the original strain.

The general trend take 100s of years to evolve downwards as you describe. Spanish Flu otherwise known as H1N1 has come and gone over time. The main reason for it disappearing appears that it ran out of hosts as there was a) less traveling, b) higher adherence to local measures after the second spike and c)better health lifestyles, i.e. less processed food

Until we can vaccinate everyone in the world - it would make more sense to hold off on Global travel as the more times the virus jumps between hosts the more mutations the higher chance of even more infectious and more deadly strain will pop up.

The W.H.O. has already stated the pandemic will be around till late 2023. Don't get why y'all can't just wait.

2023 is when the U.N have said the pandemic could be around still in some shape of form in the less developed world, unless aid and vaccine assistance is provided from the richer nations: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...untries-risk-getting-stuck-covid-crisis-2023/

 

[havoc315]

Well the new strains are becoming the dominate strains and initial results show they are more infectious and more deadly than the original strain.

The general trend take 100s of years to evolve downwards as you describe. Spanish Flu otherwise known as H1N1 has come and gone over time. The main reason for it disappearing appears that it ran out of hosts as there was a) less traveling, b) higher adherence to local measures after the second spike and c)better health lifestyles, i.e. less processed food

Until we can vaccinate everyone in the world - it would make more sense to hold off on Global travel as the more times the virus jumps between hosts the more mutations the higher chance of even more infectious and more deadly strain will pop up.

The W.H.O. has already stated the pandemic will be around till late 2023. Don't get why y'all can't just wait.

No. There was no great compliance with local measures in 1918-1920– in fact, the pandemic was downplayed.
Viruses evolve and mutate quickly — not talking hundreds of years.

Regardless... general normalcy will return. Whether it happens in 6 months or 2 years depends on a lot of factors.

But overall — vaccination will drive down infection rates, and disease seriousness. Medical therapies and treatments will continue to improve, driving down mortality rates.

 

[spock8113]

UBS? Really, UBS? A Swiss Bank? Is this where all the Disney money is? What happened to America First?
Gee, they're really going out on a limb?
"I am head of the UBS Investment branch and I predict the stock market will go down and then it will go back up............someday."

Pahleeeaaassseee.

 

[Seanual757]

If you get that correct, let's play the lotto.

LOL I play 3 times a week and I am still working my day job we are well overdue for one and hell with a crappy 2020 why not continue with a crummy 2021.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

From a Congressional Budget Office report on when the economy will return to pre-pandemic levels.

The Economy Is Improving Faster Than Expected, the U.S. Budget Office Says (Published 2021)

Large sectors of the economy are adapting to the pandemic better than originally expected, and December’s economic aid package helped to increase growth, adding another twist to stimulus talks.

www.nytimes.com

the report shows little risk of “overheating” the economy, which is projected to remain below potential levels until 2025 on its current path. And big economic risks remain. The number of employed Americans will not return to its pre-pandemic levels until 2024, officials predicted, reflecting the prolonged difficulties of shaking off the virus and returning to full levels of economic activity.

 

[SirLink]

No. There was no great compliance with local measures in 1918-1920– in fact, the pandemic was downplayed.
Viruses evolve and mutate quickly — not talking hundreds of years.

Regardless... general normalcy will return. Whether it happens in 6 months or 2 years depends on a lot of factors.

But overall — vaccination will drive down infection rates, and disease seriousness. Medical therapies and treatments will continue to improve, driving down mortality rates.

Your right hence the second wave experienced in the US, from people not complying. Viruses mutate that is correct but they do so to get stronger to propagate the disease. They only do what you surmised when they get weaker over 100s of years. But the only countries that have a got a lock on this disease are the ones looking to eradicate it not simply to put up with it.

The only way to eradicate Covid-19 is to do long lockdowns and restrict movement.

 

[Touchdown]

Your right hence the second wave experienced in the US, from people not complying. Viruses mutate that is correct but they do so to get stronger to propagate the disease. They only do what you surmised when they get weaker over 100s of years. But the only countries that have a got a lock on this disease are the ones looking to eradicate it not simply to put up with it.

The only way to eradicate Covid-19 is to do long lockdowns and restrict movement.

Stronger does not propagate a disease.

Becoming more virulent (easier to catch) propagates a disease for obvious reasons but becoming stronger/deadlier does not. If a person feels really sick they stop socializing and going to work limiting the viruses ability to spread, if you kill your host you kill any chance of spreading (literally.)

The most successful viruses on the planet (cold, flu, herpes simplex, herpes zoster, etc) are all highly virulent but cause realitively mild disease in most immunocompetent adults.

 

[SirLink]

Stronger does not propagate a disease.

Becoming more virulent (easier to catch) propagates a disease for obvious reasons but becoming stronger/deadlier does not. If a person feels really sick they stop socializing and going to work limiting the viruses ability to spread, if you kill your host you kill any chance of spreading (literally.)

The most successful viruses on the planet (cold, flu, herpes simplex, herpes zoster, etc) are all highly virulent but cause realitively mild disease in most immunocompetent adults.

Except the South African variant is more deadly and more virulent.

 

[Touchdown]

Except the South African variant is more deadly and more virulent.

No, the SA is not stronger, the British varients may be but that’s not proven yet.

 

[havoc315]

Your right hence the second wave experienced in the US, from people not complying. Viruses mutate that is correct but they do so to get stronger to propagate the disease. They only do what you surmised when they get weaker over 100s of years. But the only countries that have a got a lock on this disease are the ones looking to eradicate it not simply to put up with it.

The only way to eradicate Covid-19 is to do long lockdowns and restrict movement.

Once again, false. Viruses propagate by natural selection — and natural selection favors weaker viruses. (viruses that nobody will work hard to prevent from spreading). Of course there will sometimes be more dangerous mutations. But as we saw with the 1918 flu, less dangerous forms became dominant in just a few years, not hundreds.

Yes, lock downs and other measures can certainly eradicate Covid 19 faster. But it’s also true that with a high enough vaccination rate, and improved therapies, the dangers of Covid 19 will dissipate.
Even without those things, natural immunity and mutation would eventually kick in. Though it depends on whether Covid is truly pandemic like the Spanish flu, or endemic like the measles.

Assuming worst case scenario — measles comparison, measles vaccines are about 80% effective. And wide use of the measles vaccine has essentially eradicated measles in North America. And measles are far worse than Covid.

There is no “only way” here. It’s a combination of measures. How well we execute those measures will go along way towards how fast we can normalize.