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News UBS: WDW Attendance Predicted to Recover in 2023

Dan Deesnee

Well-Known Member
Why 2023? Why not 2032? We're just throwing dates around right?

This is what these people do for a living so your comment is slightly rude.

This prediction/estimate was likely put together after they spent hours upon hours researching travel trends, covid projections, traveler sentiment, etc.

I wouldn't be so wick to brush it off. Also the dates sound plausible to me. Guess we'll see.
 

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
This is what these people do for a living so your comment is slightly rude.

This prediction/estimate was likely put together after they spent hours upon hours researching travel trends, covid projections, traveler sentiment, etc.

I wouldn't be so wick to brush it off. Also the dates sound plausible to me. Guess we'll see.

Imagine a career where you predict unpredictable things with the pomp of authority. Wonder what the predictions for 2020 were in 2018?
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Imagine a career where you predict unpredictable things with the pomp of authority. Wonder what the predictions for 2020 were in 2018?

Everything is predictable. predictions do not have to be right. Like the weather. That is why it is called a prediction instead of a Psychic Revelation. An interesting part of a career for sure.
 
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maxairmike

Well-Known Member
This is what these people do for a living so your comment is slightly rude.

This prediction/estimate was likely put together after they spent hours upon hours researching travel trends, covid projections, traveler sentiment, etc.

I wouldn't be so wick to brush it off. Also the dates sound plausible to me. Guess we'll see.

Sure, just like TEA/AECOM probably spend many hours on their yearly park attendance "report." Doesn't change that it's laughable and been called out by operators for being way off.

This one is probably a bit more "substantial," and I'm inclined to agree with it, but in this industry I tend to take most outside reports/estimates/etc. with a massive grain of salt. 2023 sounds right, maybe more late '23 into '24.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
How long will they have to keep those prices? Will they need to go lower on the moderates and values? ATM, AoA is $195ish/night during their current deal. That’s still too high.
I don’t know, the only time I’ve ever gotten a rate comparable in the past was in Jan/Feb at WL, CR (garden wing) or GF when it was undergoing renovations. I strongly suspect these discounts get offered at least through June, but I doubt they go lower. Disney needs herd immunity to kick in, their target demo (families) have people ineligible for the vaccine. Maybe people start feeling more bold by the summer but until then, they’re SOL.
 

Goofnut1980

Well-Known Member
So basically, someone hears that a vaccine is being put out there for people and now all of a sudden Disney will be back to normal next year... baahaahahaha cute. Not everyone will have the vaccine by that point.
 

SirLink

Well-Known Member
Everything is predictable. predictions do not have to be right. Like the weather. That is why it is called a prediction instead of a Psychic Revelation. An interesting part of a career for sure.
Financial modelling predictions have to be in some sort of realistic possibility within a 95% confidence interval usually. The fact is the Florida market needs international travel to succeed - which won't be coming until late 2022 and most countries more likely than not still have bans on traveling to the USA till late 2024.
 

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
That would be called analysis and reporting. Pretty common in many fields. To dismiss all analysis across the board simply because it might be wrong would be pretty foolish.

You can't prognosticate market trends involving crowds at the moment because there are too many variables in the next 3-4 years. Will there be new strains requiring new vaccines and additional social distancing? What will the political atmosphere be like? Will there be new quarantine requirements for interstate travel from various regions? Nobody knows right now, and predictions in that area are not made by serious people.

Financial modelling predictions have to be in some sort of realistic possibility within a 95% confidence interval usually. The fact is the Florida market needs international travel to succeed - which won't be coming until late 2022 and most countries more likely than not still have bans on traveling to the USA till late 2024.

Financial models for in-person venues must operate on healthcare and virology data that we simply do not have at this point. Stating that anything will occur in a specific way with in-person venues is like driving with your eyes closed and declaring what traffic will look like in five miles.
 

SourcererMark79

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
This is what these people do for a living so your comment is slightly rude.

This prediction/estimate was likely put together after they spent hours upon hours researching travel trends, covid projections, traveler sentiment, etc.

I wouldn't be so wick to brush it off. Also the dates sound plausible to me. Guess we'll see.
If they told you wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe them?
 

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