News UBS: WDW Attendance Predicted to Recover in 2023

[Dan Deesnee]

You can't prognosticate market trends involving crowds at the moment because there are too many variables in the next 3-4 years. Will there be new strains requiring new vaccines and additional social distancing? What will the political atmosphere be like? Will there be new quarantine requirements for interstate travel from various regions? Nobody knows right now, and predictions in that area are not made by serious people.



Financial models for in-person venues must operate on healthcare and virology data that we simply do not have at this point. Stating that anything will occur in a specific way with in-person venues is like driving with your eyes closed and declaring what traffic will look like in five miles.

There is also a basic understanding it seems from most analysts that things like travel, etc. simply have to get back to mostly normal within the next year or two. We can stay hidden away in our homes for years but we won't have much of a world left whenever we feel that its safe enough to go back outside.

Virus mutation is part of...well...it being a virus. New strains of covid will be popping up for years if not decades. Analysts and experts must continue to project, based on info, etc. what they believe could happen in the future.

You can choose to ignore it. Others can choose to take that perspective and become better informed.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

Financial modelling predictions have to be in some sort of realistic possibility within a 95% confidence interval usually. The fact is the Florida market needs international travel to succeed - which won't be coming until late 2022 and most countries more likely than not still have bans on traveling to the USA till late 2024.

Absolutely not. International travel will resume well before that otherwise we'll be facing global economic collapse. Not because international travel drives the global economy but because if things are still that locked down through 2024, we're done for economically.

 

[Giss Neric]

By 2022/2023, I predict an amusement/theme park somewhere will close permanently. I'm thinking a Six Flags park or Cedar Fair park.

 

[celluloid]

If they told you wolverines would make good house pets, would you believe them?

Is that their credited field of expertise?

 

[Jrb1979]

By 2022/2023, I predict an amusement/theme park somewhere will close permanently. I'm thinking a Six Flags park or Cedar Fair park.

I hope that doesn't happen.

 

[SirLink]

Absolutely not. International travel will resume well before that otherwise we'll be facing global economic collapse. Not because international travel drives the global economy but because if things are still that locked down through 2024, we're done for economically.

Domestically everything should be fine for G8 countries by then. However international travel will not resume until everyone in the world gets vaccinated. We have seen the devastation of the LA variant, SA variant and Brazil variants plus we don't know how many more variants will pop up. Health comes before the economy - if everyone is dead you don't have an economy

 

[Buck Wheelie]

With a vaccine and an end to the pandemic along with the 50th anniversary I think it will pick up before 2023. Most likely the second half of 2021 and 22. The key will be if the pandemic ends.

 

[Seanual757]

How many hurricanes will appear in the Atlantic in 2021?

I predict we will have 3 hit Florida this year 2 Major impacting the Central Florida area in August and two in September 2021..

 

[SirLink]

With a vaccine and an end to the pandemic along with the 50th anniversary I think it will pick up before 2023. Most likely the second half of 2021 and 22. The key will be if the pandemic ends.

But getting the pandemic to end requires the entire world to vaccinate 70% of the globes population pre-variant discovery. Post variant discovery its more like 90% of the globes population.

 

[DznyGrlSD]

How long will they have to keep those prices? Will they need to go lower on the moderates and values? ATM, AoA is $195ish/night during their current deal. That’s still too high.

I'm staying at Cabana Bay, during Spring Break (Mid-march), in a family suite for $104/night. Disney's hotel rates are outrageous.

 

[JoeCamel]

I'm staying at Cabana Bay, during Spring Break (Mid-march), in a family suite for $104/night. Disney's hotel rates are outrageous.

But the $12 night parking fee...

 

[DznyGrlSD]

But the $12 night parking fee...

$18 actually and Disney charges for parking as well so..?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Disney theme park attendance predicted to recover by 2023

Disney theme parks are expected to reach historical attendance levels by 2022 according to a report by UBS.

blooloop.com

This talks about attendance. I think the overall attendance will depend on what they do with the AP programs.

Like it or not, total attendance does include APs. If they destroy the value in the APs then less will buy APs and total attendance will go down even if all other types of attendance recover to what it was pre pandemic.

Having said that, once COVID is fully behind there might be so much pent up demand that attendance skyrockets from visitors other than APs

 

[JoeCamel]

$18 actually and Disney charges for parking as well so..?

Been a while since I stayed there and yes, Disney has parking fees too. Look for the emoji? Point was it is a great value

 

[No Name]

Imagine a career where you predict unpredictable things with the pomp of authority.

Worse, imagine doing that and not even getting paid!

 

[Disstevefan1]

A whole bunch a people thought Disney was going to do gangbusters business for the 50th, for one.

Thanks China

 

[WDW Pro]

Worse, imagine doing that and not even getting paid!

That would be bizarre.

 

[WDW Pro]

I predict we will have 3 hit Florida this year 2 Major impacting the Central Florida area in August and two in September 2021..

If you get that correct, let's play the lotto.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

Domestically everything should be fine for G8 countries by then. However international travel will not resume until everyone in the world gets vaccinated. We have seen the devastation of the LA variant, SA variant and Brazil variants plus we don't know how many more variants will pop up. Health comes before the economy - if everyone is dead you don't have an economy

I'm sorry but let's just disagree and move on. Covid doesn't have a 100% death rate so not everyone will die, in fact very very few will compared to global population of everyone were to get it.

You're basically laying out a scenario where the world will have to go into a never ending period of new vaccines for new strains (there will be new strains for decades to come in all likelihood), no global travel, and economies will just have to deal with it.

Doesn't work that way. The economic impact and health impact of lockdowns, etc. will kill far, far more people (look at the overdose death rate in California, for example). This is also who Cali is now sarting to open back up regardless of covid rates.

In 2023, new strains or not, things will be mostly back to normal. They simply have to be, we have no other real choice.

 

[NelsonRD]

I predict that I will not visit Disney in 2021, and that is pretty accurate.