TWDC Earnings

jlsHouston

Well-Known Member
One of the early suggestions on these threads was that FP+ would be used to manipulate guest behavior into riding attractions that they otherwise might skip. (Something Disney has tried in the past with “bonus” FastPasses.)

The difficulty in reconciling this with FP+ is that most popular attractions cycle with all capacity used. Attractions such as Hall of the Presidents or Carrousel of Progress might have unused capacity during peak holiday season (as Iger specifically mentioned) but they don’t have FP+. Therefore, it’s challenging to envision how this could be used to claim that Disney was “able to accommodate about 3,000 more additional guests in the Magic Kingdom per day thanks to MyMagic+.”

MM+ does not increase the physical size of MK. It does not add ride capacity. It does not increase restaurant space. It might let guests enter the park a few seconds faster but when MK is in a phase closing as happens during peak holiday season, faster entry into the parks is not a factor.

One possible interpretation of the “3,000 more additional guests” claim can be reached by taking into account what Iger discussed next, namely FP+.

“What we are seeing there is substantially higher utilization of that product among our guests than we saw with the traditional FASTPASS. By the way by a wide margin.”

When comparing FP+ vs. FP, FP+ is able to accommodate about 3,000 more guests than FP. However, this is only because FP+ robbed capacity away from Standby lines.

The net gain of FP+ is 0, a concept that Iger did not disclose during the call, presumably either because he wanted to convince analysts that MM+ is beneficial or because he simply failed to grasp the concept of where FP+’s “substantially higher utilization” came from.

Something else I've considered is increased staff. Simply put, WDW reportedly has hired additional CMs to support MM+. Might the claim of 3,000 more guests accommodated simply be a reflection of more employees on hand (as a result of MM+) that allow for more guests to enter the park? In other words, is MK's capacity at least partially determined by a minimum CM-to-guest ratio?

OMG...what you are discussing in that first paragraph...somebody on property right now today was posting how FP+ was working so well and that the app was actually offering suggestions of things for the guest to do "on the way..." or "in between" FP+ selections.
I think MM+ is doing exactly that or attempting to as you said the old FP system would sometimes throw a bonus FP to direct guest traffic in a certain direction!
 

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member
Disney's occupancy claims defy the ghost towns that are the larger resorts these days
...
In short I'm having a problem reconciling the ground truth with the numbers Disney is putting up
Jim Heaney was fired by DVC for intentionally submitting Aulani maintenance fees that were too low to Hawaii authorities

I saw about $300 Million in debt missing. For starters
Lots of accusations but zero substantiation... Funny how some love to make accusations but show absolutely nothing to back up their ludicrous claims.

I think it's time people are taken to task for these claims... Show the proof.
 

Darth Sidious

Authentically Disney Distinctly Chinese
Lots of accusations but zero substantiation... Funny how some love to make accusations but show absolutely nothing to back up their ludicrous claims.

I think it's time people are taken to task for these claims... Show the proof.

If you read back they were. I think it's best this thread withers away.
 

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member

asianway

Well-Known Member
Bull. Don't try to worm your way out of the accusations and deflect.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304680904579364993822241378?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304680904579364993822241378.html

Wall Street Journal article for their report and filings. Funny, that $300 million isn't discussed.

Give us a reputable source. We're waiting.
You quoted me twice.
I don't spoon feed, I don't provide reading lessons, and I don't do counseling to people brainwashed by a brand.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
The SEC looks at company disclosures in two distinct streams (there are actually more, but I'll focus on the major ones).

First, there is the review by the Division of Corporation Finance. This is routine, and happens to all companies. Selection is based on a number of characteristics, but largely based on market capitalization? Why? Because the SEC is there to protect investors, so it focuses this part of its activities on those companies where investors have the most money at risk. A company the size of Disney is reviewed every year. This review consists of SEC reviewers reading the filings in question, looking at other publicly available information about the company and its industry, and then asking questions, through a "comment letter" to the company, if the SEC decides there are sufficient questions to make a letter worthwhile. These comments can deal with accuracy of disclosures, appropriateness of accounting, compliance with legal requirements of being a public company, etc. Profit or not doesn't factor into the selection, nor the questions asked.

The second stream is an investigation by the Division of the Enforcement. This is an activity that is only undertaken if there is some credible suggestions or evidence that a problem exists, rather than just speculation or theories (For example, "Disney says that hotels are full, but the parking lots are always empty" or "McDonalds says same store sales are up, but none of my friends and relatives go there because of health concerns"). Sometimes the credible evidence of a possible problem comes from the routine comment letter process I describe in the previous paragraph. Other times from tips, other times from whistleblowers, other times from evidence that comes out of shareholder lawsuits, etc. The SEC does not screen those based on whether the company is profitable or not. However, there are probably more tips, lawsuits, and whistleblowers that comes out of the woodwork when people lose money than when people are making money. The SEC could, in response to this obvious tendency, open investigations of wildly profitable companies just on the reasonable belief that some portion of them are probably screwing around but nobody is complaining about it because everybody is making money. But that would be akin to the government investigating rich people because some of them likely got rich by nefarious methods. The SEC probably has the power to do it anyways, but that isn't the way we generally want our government to proceed.

So the SEC balances its activities. About an equal amount of resources are devoted to the regular reviews by Corp. Fin. as to investigations by Enforcement.

The second stream SHOULD be applied to ALL public companies on a random basis we have seen enough companies blow up with years of falsified data which neither their auditors nor corporate side of SEC saw through.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
Nope. The reporting requirements in that situation are red flags and the company would be nailed in the markets. Little companies might pull something like that, but not a major public company.

Really a major public company would not do this!!!!,

ENRON, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie , Countrywide, Christian Mutual, WAMU, Madoff Investments, Merrill Lynch - I could go on but these were all major public companies and Fannie and Freddie had Govt Guarantees and the financials were all as genuine as a $3 bill all of them got a 'Clean bill of Health' from their auditors and the SEC.

Some of these failures caused reputable mutual funds to 'break the buck' which technically they are not supposed (or allowed) to do.

So tell me again why major public companies should not be subject to periodic forensic audits, and prompt and severe punishment of the principals involved if illegal activities are found.
 

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member
For the Search challenged the 300 Million in debt due July 15 2093

http://www.advfn.com/nyse/StockNews.asp?stocknews=DIS&article=25829616

It's actually assigned to Disney Enterprises. And they were pretty desperate for the cash because even in this nearly ZERO interest climate its fixed at 7.55% AND Moody's only rates the debt at A1

Inquiring minds go Hmmmm....
That's several years old and doesn't show us anything about HIDDEN debt or doing something illegal.

So, again, where's the proof of the illegal activities.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
Stating that I believe numbers are 'Too Good to be True' is not saying anything illegal is going on.

Disney putting 300 million in a shell company with a repayment date 80 years in the future does not pass the 'smell test'

With something like that going on - What else is rotten in the kingdom??
 

fillerup

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
For the Search challenged the 300 Million in debt due July 15 2093

http://www.advfn.com/nyse/StockNews.asp?stocknews=DIS&article=25829616

It's actually assigned to Disney Enterprises. And they were pretty desperate for the cash because even in this nearly ZERO interest climate its fixed at 7.55% AND Moody's only rates the debt at A1

Inquiring minds go Hmmmm....

Stating that I believe numbers are 'Too Good to be True' is not saying anything illegal is going on.

Disney putting 300 million in a shell company with a repayment date 80 years in the future does not pass the 'smell test'

With something like that going on - What else is rotten in the kingdom??

Thanks for this - at least now I think I know what the $300M being referred to by the other poster is, unless of course it's a different $300M.

Disney didn't "put" 300M in a shell company with a payment date 80 years in the future. Disney Enterprises (a wholly owned subsidiary) issued bonds in 1993 with a payment date 100 years in the future.

Paying 7.55% in a zero interest rate climate indicates they were desperate for cash? No, actually 7% in 1993 seemed impossibly low and a lot of entities issued bonds with very long maturities. I remember this, because a business partner of mine at the time was involved in a similar issuance by Ford Motors.

Moody's "only rates this debt at A1? That's actually higher than the rating for the long term debt of TWDC which they rate at A2. That's in the link you posted.

Since Dis Enterprises is a subsidiary, the 300M would be reflected as part of the TWDC long term debt of 12.7B.

So, inquiring minds still want to know - where's the "missing debt"? (Not a question for you since you didn't make the original claim.)
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
Thanks for this - at least now I think I know what the $300M being referred to by the other poster is, unless of course it's a different $300M.

Disney didn't "put" 300M in a shell company with a payment date 80 years in the future. Disney Enterprises (a wholly owned subsidiary) issued bonds in 1993 with a payment date 100 years in the future.

Paying 7.55% in a zero interest rate climate indicates they were desperate for cash? No, actually 7% in 1993 seemed impossibly low and a lot of entities issued bonds with very long maturities. I remember this, because a business partner of mine at the time was involved in a similar issuance by Ford Motors.

Moody's "only rates this debt at A1? That's actually higher than the rating for the long term debt of TWDC which they rate at A2. That's in the link you posted.

Since Dis Enterprises is a subsidiary, the 300M would be reflected as part of the TWDC long term debt of 12.7B.

So, inquiring minds still want to know - where's the "missing debt"? (Not a question for you since you didn't make the original claim.)

Thanks for the additional background, I do find it interesting that Moody's only rates DIS Debt as A2 which is medium grade.
 

Darth Sidious

Authentically Disney Distinctly Chinese
For the Search challenged the 300 Million in debt due July 15 2093

http://www.advfn.com/nyse/StockNews.asp?stocknews=DIS&article=25829616

It's actually assigned to Disney Enterprises. And they were pretty desperate for the cash because even in this nearly ZERO interest climate its fixed at 7.55% AND Moody's only rates the debt at A1

Inquiring minds go Hmmmm....

Those notes were issued in 1993, the interest rate makes sense. Your link is to the reaffirmation of the A1 rating in 2008. Disney is A1/A2 rated, and thats a very good rating for corporate debt. Without disclosing too much, where I work, Disney is the highest rated media company for our internal credit risk ratings. The only way Disney would get a higher rating than A1 would be if these notes were asset backed or if there were tranches of debt in which one tranche could receive a Aaa rating.

To the 'desperate for cash' remark, there are significant benefits to having debt on your balance sheet. Which is another reason why I don't see why they would omit them from the 10K. Take this example, Apple may have more cash than any US corporation, yet they just issued billions in notes to pay dividends rather than use the cash. This allows for tax benefits in multiple areas, one being write offs and the other being the ability to keep cash in foreign countries/currencies.

Disney reported this $300mm in the long term debt portion of the 10K.
 

Darth Sidious

Authentically Disney Distinctly Chinese
Really a major public company would not do this!!!!,

ENRON, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie , Countrywide, Christian Mutual, WAMU, Madoff Investments, Merrill Lynch - I could go on but these were all major public companies and Fannie and Freddie had Govt Guarantees and the financials were all as genuine as a $3 bill all of them got a 'Clean bill of Health' from their auditors and the SEC.

Some of these failures caused reputable mutual funds to 'break the buck' which technically they are not supposed (or allowed) to do.

So tell me again why major public companies should not be subject to periodic forensic audits, and prompt and severe punishment of the principals involved if illegal activities are found.

The named companies spawned the legislation that he was speaking to. Enron is the reason why Sarbanes-Oxley exists. The other companies are the reasons for Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule.
 

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