TWDC Earnings

[ParentsOf4]

The rumor on MiceChat is that attendance at Disneyland is indeed down. Supposedly they had a relatively slow Christmas.

It's no rumor, DLR attendance is down for the last 2 quarters.

As mentioned in the earnings calls and in the 10K, domestic attendance is flat with WDW experiencing record attendance.

If WDW attendance is up and total domestic attendance is flat, then that means DLR attendance is down.

Iger has acknowledged this, although he has avoided discussing specific numbers.

 

[MichWolv]

So in your opinion, do you think if there were dirty dealings behind the scenes in regards to funds being misused in any possible way, would it affect the stock first before any kind of knowledge is known to the public? While it may be considered insider trading, I would have to think Wall St will find out before the masses.

Jimmy Thick- ?

Sometimes Wall Street insiders are as shocked as anybody else when shenanigans are made public. Other times, they figure it out first due to analysis, and other times, from insider information. Depends on the kind of stuff going on and who is committing it as to whether Wall Street or insiders are likely to find out about it before the general public.

 

[GoofGoof]

Sometimes Wall Street insiders are as shocked as anybody else when shenanigans are made public. Other times, they figure it out first due to analysis, and other times, from insider information. Depends on the kind of stuff going on and who is committing it as to whether Wall Street or insiders are likely to find out about it before the general public.

If I remember history correctly there were some analysts who started to question Enron's numbers before the bottom dropped out. Unfortunately, at that time the investment banking arm of the firms these analysts worked for were making so much money in fees they muzzled some of these guys at the request of Enron senior management. Well, not really request...it was more like "if you don't get rid of this guy who is bashing our stock we are pulling you from numerous future projects". More like a heavy threat than a request.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's no rumor, DLR attendance is down for the last 2 quarters.

As mentioned in the earnings calls and in the 10K, domestic attendance is flat with WDW experiencing record attendance.

If WDW attendance is up and total domestic attendance is flat, then that means DLR attendance is down.

Iger has acknowledged this, although he has avoided discussing specific numbers.

That can't be good for future projects like Star Wars or Pixar at DHS. I was really hoping the results at DCA would be so overwhelmingly good they would almost be forced to spend like drunken sailors out east too.

 

[flynnibus]

If WDW attendance is up and total domestic attendance is flat, then that means DLR attendance is down.

Things are relative tho.. down compared to the records they had just experienced... It's kind of like the hangover after the big party.

Remember.. we are just now getting into the periods were the last two MAJOR price hikes on AP prices would start to kick in. APs expiring.. people not renewing, etc.

Combine the AP shifts, and the carsland hangover... I can see attendance dropping from where it WAS... but I think it speaks more to the visitor makeup and the question of 'Did DCA v2.0 bring in new visitors who will come back more'... or did it just rev up the under utilized existing base?

I think the AP price hikes are starting to come into their own now...

 

[GoofGoof]

Things are relative tho.. down compared to the records they had just experienced... It's kind of like the hangover after the big party.

Remember.. we are just now getting into the periods were the last two MAJOR price hikes on AP prices would start to kick in. APs expiring.. people not renewing, etc.

Combine the AP shifts, and the carsland hangover... I can see attendance dropping from where it WAS... but I think it speaks more to the visitor makeup and the question of 'Did DCA v2.0 bring in new visitors who will come back more'... or did it just rev up the under utilized existing base?

I think the AP price hikes are starting to come into their own now...

Good point on the APs. I guess I was more thinking of Potter and IOA. Even though attendance growth leveled out after the 2nd year it didn't drop. A big boost in year 1 and then a drop in year 2 could be a sign that Carsland isn't drawing return guests.

 

[flynnibus]

A big boost in year 1 and then a drop in year 2 could be a sign that Carsland isn't drawing return guests.

Or that 'the high is over' and visiting patterns are returning more to normal levels. Newness rubs off..

I'd be more concerned over what it means about DCA v2.0 and what it means for DLR as a resort pulling in out of towners... but its near impossible to make such conclusions from the outside with such limited info.

 

[ford91exploder]

I don't know squat about big business financials, insider trading or auditing. But what I do know is what I seen with my own two eyes and what I experienced a week ago at CBR. An absolute ghost town. The 5th largest resort in the WORLD and I would be surprised if there were more then a couple hundred in the entire resort. The first two days I was there, there was never more then ten people at the food court. Never a line to order food or pay for it. It picked up a little toward the end of our stay but I chalk that up to it being the weekend.

I also noticed the bus stops at the parks, there were never more then ten people or so. MK and DHS were better then moderate as far as attendance was concerned. Where were these people staying? I would say the percentage of guest that were native Americans ( not native American Indians, people from the USA.) versus foreigners was about 80% foreign. So where do these people stay? The value resorts?

THIS is what bugs me about the OFFICIAL attendance figures, I've talked to a bunch of people who have visited Disney recently and the resorts are GHOST TOWNS empty parking lots, QS restaurants with no lines, Buses being empty or no more than half full.

Yet Disney tells the tale of 79% full resorts and only 5% of rooms being 'out of service'

 

[ford91exploder]

If I remember history correctly there were some analysts who started to question Enron's numbers before the bottom dropped out. Unfortunately, at that time the investment banking arm of the firms these analysts worked for were making so much money in fees they muzzled some of these guys at the request of Enron senior management. Well, not really request...it was more like "if you don't get rid of this guy who is bashing our stock we are pulling you from numerous future projects". More like a heavy threat than a request.

Your memory is correct, And the analysts muzzled and fired in some cases were very high profile analysts with long and unblemished track records.

 

[ford91exploder]

That can't be good for future projects like Star Wars or Pixar at DHS. I was really hoping the results at DCA would be so overwhelmingly good they would almost be forced to spend like drunken sailors out east too.

Recall that AP's for DL were both increased in price and blackout dates greatly increased in scope, I believe the premier passport is the ONLY one now without blackout dates. And Burbank is wondering WHY attendance has dropped. You can only off your regular customers so many times before they STOP being regular customers.

 

[flynnibus]

Recall that AP's for DL were both increased in price and blackout dates greatly increased in scope, I believe the premier passport is the ONLY one now without blackout dates.

It's been the pap is the only 365 pass for a long time . It's a series of huge price increases that has been where the changes have been - not the features.

 

[Californian Elitist]

Recall that AP's for DL were both increased in price and blackout dates greatly increased in scope, I believe the premier passport is the ONLY one now without blackout dates. And Burbank is wondering WHY attendance has dropped. You can only off your regular customers so many times before they STOP being regular customers.

The Disneyland Premium has no blackout dates, and I'm pretty sure the Deluxe has always had fifty blackout dates. I don't know if anything's changed with the other two.

 

[MichWolv]

That can't be good for future projects like Star Wars or Pixar at DHS. I was really hoping the results at DCA would be so overwhelmingly good they would almost be forced to spend like drunken sailors out east too.

As was I. If the attendance bump at DL was only temporary, it isn't good for future park-wide sparkle efforts. OTOH, if attendance jumped 20% with the DCA project, and then dropped back 10% and stays there, that's probably OK, as it's a permanent 10% increase.

 

[ParentsOf4]

That can't be good for future projects like Star Wars or Pixar at DHS. I was really hoping the results at DCA would be so overwhelmingly good they would almost be forced to spend like drunken sailors out east too.

As was I. If the attendance bump at DL was only temporary, it isn't good for future park-wide sparkle efforts. OTOH, if attendance jumped 20% with the DCA project, and then dropped back 10% and stays there, that's probably OK, as it's a permanent 10% increase.

Based on what has been discussed during various presentations, WDW attendance was up 1-to-2% for the first 3 quarters of FY2013.

At DLR, there was a big bump for the first 4 quarters immediately following the opening of Cars Land. The last 2 quarters had to compete with the first 2 quarters of Cars Land.

During the last 2 quarters, WDW attendance was up but there was no information regarding how much. Meanwhile, DLR attendance has pulled back (again, no information regarding how much) and combined attendance was flat.

If the trend at WDW from the prior quarters continued, then DLR's attendance should be down 3-to-4% for the last 2 quarters.

However, this is just a guess. Lately, Wall Street is much more interested in asking about MyMagic+ than attendance at the parks.

 

[ford91exploder]

It's been the pap is the only 365 pass for a long time . It's a series of huge price increases that has been where the changes have been - not the features.

I thought the DL Premium AP picked up Thanksgiving and Christmas through NYE this year, Leaving the Premier Passport (good at WDW and DL) the only DL AP which did not have blackout dates.

Remember this year DVC discounts for the first time have blackout dates and they are significant blocks of time.

 

[flynnibus]

I thought the DL Premium AP picked up Thanksgiving and Christmas through NYE this year, Leaving the Premier Passport (good at WDW and DL) the only DL AP which did not have blackout dates.

Nope... PAP is a 365 pass minus any park closings. Deluxe has Saturdays blocked and holidays (Christmas week included). Disney has been jacking up the prices, and doing things like raising the blackout ticket prices... but blackouts for Deluxe and PAP are stable.

 

[ford91exploder]

Nope... PAP is a 365 pass minus any park closings. Deluxe has Saturdays blocked and holidays (Christmas week included). Disney has been jacking up the prices, and doing things like raising the blackout ticket prices... but blackouts for Deluxe and PAP are stable.

Thanks Flynn! good to know

 

[GoofGoof]

As was I. If the attendance bump at DL was only temporary, it isn't good for future park-wide sparkle efforts. OTOH, if attendance jumped 20% with the DCA project, and then dropped back 10% and stays there, that's probably OK, as it's a permanent 10% increase.

Based on what has been discussed during various presentations, WDW attendance was up 1-to-2% for the first 3 quarters of FY2013.

There was a big bump for the first 4 quarters immediately following the opening of Cars Land. The last 2 quarters had to compete with the first 2 quarters of Cars Land.

During the last 2 quarters, WDW attendance was up but there was no information regarding how much. Meanwhile, DLR attendance has pulled back (again, no information regarding how much) and combined attendance was flat.

If the trend at WDW from the prior quarters continued, then DLR's attendance should be down 3-to-4% for the last 2 quarters.

However, this is just a guess. Lately, Wall Street is much more interested in asking about MyMagic+ than attendance at the parks.

Thanks. You guys are the voice of reason. This makes a lot of sense and may not be as bad as I was originally thinking. StarWars Land...back on

 

[Californian Elitist]

Nope... PAP is a 365 pass minus any park closings. Deluxe has Saturdays blocked and holidays (Christmas week included). Disney has been jacking up the prices, and doing things like raising the blackout ticket prices... but blackouts for Deluxe and PAP are stable.

Saturdays are only sometimes blocked on the Deluxe, which is a good thing. For example, there isn't a single blackout date in January of next year. I think the Deluxe is good enough. Anything like this pass for WDW?

 

[jakeman]

Saturdays are only sometimes blocked on the Deluxe, which is a good thing. For example, there isn't a single blackout date in January of next year. I think the Deluxe is good enough. Anything like this pass for WDW?

A seasonal pass has entire months and holidays blocked off (not 100% which ones), but the standard annual pass has no blackout days.