TWDC Earnings

[jakeman]

There's a whole lot of crazy on one side of this thread and a whole lot of experience and knowledge on the other.

I wonder which one is right?

 

[Andrew C]

There's a whole lot of crazy on one side of this thread and a whole lot of experience and knowledge on the other.

I wonder which one is right?

Crazy sounds good to me!

 

[jakeman]

Crazy sounds good to me!

It makes the reading fun at least!

 

[fillerup]

There's a whole lot of crazy on one side of this thread and a whole lot of experience and knowledge on the other.

I wonder which one is right?

No such thing as too much crazy.

 

[wannab@dis]

Disney's occupancy claims defy the ghost towns that are the larger resorts these days
...
In short I'm having a problem reconciling the ground truth with the numbers Disney is putting up

Jim Heaney was fired by DVC for intentionally submitting Aulani maintenance fees that were too low to Hawaii authorities

I saw about $300 Million in debt missing. For starters

Still waiting for the proof for these claims.

 

[Jimmy Thick]

Jimmy Thick- Ouch, that's gonna leave a mark...

 

[fillerup]

Still waiting for the proof for these claims.

Might as well let it go. The missing debt claim was manufactured out of thin air and will never be substantiated.

Ford91 at least put forth the effort to identify the $300M in question.

 

[MichWolv]

And if they won't sign off on it, they'll be fired & replaced by someone who will

Nope. The reporting requirements in that situation are red flags and the company would be nailed in the markets. Little companies might pull something like that, but not a major public company.

Really a major public company would not do this!!!!,

ENRON, Lehman Brothers, Fannie and Freddie , Countrywide, Christian Mutual, WAMU, Madoff Investments, Merrill Lynch - I could go on but these were all major public companies and Fannie and Freddie had Govt Guarantees and the financials were all as genuine as a $3 bill all of them got a 'Clean bill of Health' from their auditors and the SEC.

Some of these failures caused reputable mutual funds to 'break the buck' which technically they are not supposed (or allowed) to do.

So tell me again why major public companies should not be subject to periodic forensic audits, and prompt and severe punishment of the principals involved if illegal activities are found.

If you actually follow the quotes and responses that what I was responding to was the suggestion that a company would fire its auditor when the auditor disagrees with it and hire a new one that is more agreeable. That is what I was saying doesn't happen. Why? Because there is a reporting requirement when a company fires an auditor due to a disagreement on accounting. And if the company does not make that report accurately, the auditor is required to report the failure to report the disagreement. So, a major company would never do this because having a report out that says the company fired its auditor over a disagreement on the application of accounting standards causes a loss in confidence in management that would devastate the stock price.

None of the companies you mention changed auditors, and therefore are not relevant to the point I made that you failed utterly to refute.

As for breaking the buck, mutual funds are actually required to do so at certain times. They try very hard to design their operations in a way that protects them from needing to that, but when circumstances dictate, they must do so.

As for the last sentence, I never said public companies SHOULD NOT be subject to forensic audits -- I just told you why they ARE NOT subject to them. And I told you that I thought more severe punishment of people was absolutely appropriate. So I cannot tell you AGAIN things that i never told you in the first place.

 

[MichWolv]

Stating that I believe numbers are 'Too Good to be True' is not saying anything illegal is going on.

Disney putting 300 million in a shell company with a repayment date 80 years in the future does not pass the 'smell test'

With something like that going on - What else is rotten in the kingdom??

The article you linked to, which you have misinterpreted is several ways, as already pointed out, says the debt is in a wholly-owned subsidiary. That means it ain't hidden. As for your smell test...if you were issuing debt, wouldn't you rather have the option to delay repayment for 100 years? Beats the crap out out of a payday loan or one due in 10 years. The fact that somebody was willing to invest in 100 year debt (it was first issued in 1993, not 2013) of the company shows how good they believe the company's credit is.

 

[ParentsOf4]

OMG...what you are discussing in that first paragraph...somebody on property right now today was posting how FP+ was working so well and that the app was actually offering suggestions of things for the guest to do "on the way..." or "in between" FP+ selections.
I think MM+ is doing exactly that or attempting to as you said the old FP system would sometimes throw a bonus FP to direct guest traffic in a certain direction!

WDW is a big, confusing place. We WDW experts sometimes forget that.

MyMagic+ always was intended to act as a virtual tour guide, telling guests about things to do (and opportunities to spend ) as guests walked through the parks.

This is why MagicBand's tracking technology (and the huge database behind it) is so important. Based on data Disney collects about each guest, they know where they are and have a pretty good idea of what they like in order to make recommendations accordingly.

For inexperienced WDW visitors, MyMagic+ has the potential to enhance the experience.

Still, a heck of a lot of technology is involved. They need guests carrying smart phones to make this effective.

I always thought the purpose of a vacation was to relax and get away from the normal routine.

Can you experience MyMagic+ without technology? Sure, but it's not what Disney was going for with MyMagic+.

As Iger and Rasulo have explained to Wall Street, MyMagic+ is supposed to:

1. Encourage guests to preplan more of their vacations. The goal being, if vacations are preplanned at WDW, guests are less likely to spend their dollars elsewhere.
2. Present Disney with upsell opportunities, in large part through smart phone technology.
3. Provide incentives for guests to switch from offsite to onsite hotels.

So far, we've not seen any noticeable bump in Disney's financial numbers, beyond what's easily explainable through the usual annual ticket, food, and beverage price increases.

In his comments during the most recent earnings call, Iger did not claim any additional revenue from MyMagic+ yet, which is awkward since MyMagic+ went live at all the resorts during the start of the quarter. Wall Street has been asking Iger about MyMagic+'s financials at the last 5 earnings calls. They just can't figure it out.

Still, it's early. With MyMagic+ officially in "test" (despite all WDW guests being forced to use it in one way or another at this point), MyMagic+ might be a slow-starter.

MyMagic+ is supposed to represent a paradigm shift in theme park vacationing. These sometimes take time.

Regardless, it's apparent that Iger did not want to disclose MyMagic+ financials right now. If Disney had concrete evidence that MyMagic+ was a financial success at this point, I suspect Iger would have been singing about it at the top of his lungs.

 

[ford91exploder]

If you actually follow the quotes and responses that what I was responding to was the suggestion that a company would fire its auditor when the auditor disagrees with it and hire a new one that is more agreeable. That is what I was saying doesn't happen. Why? Because there is a reporting requirement when a company fires an auditor due to a disagreement on accounting. And if the company does not make that report accurately, the auditor is required to report the failure to report the disagreement. So, a major company would never do this because having a report out that says the company fired its auditor over a disagreement on the application of accounting standards causes a loss in confidence in management that would devastate the stock price.

None of the companies you mention changed auditors, and therefore are not relevant to the point I made that you failed utterly to refute.

As for breaking the buck, mutual funds are actually required to do so at certain times. They try very hard to design their operations in a way that protects them from needing to that, but when circumstances dictate, they must do so.

As for the last sentence, I never said public companies SHOULD NOT be subject to forensic audits -- I just told you why they ARE NOT subject to them. And I told you that I thought more severe punishment of people was absolutely appropriate. So I cannot tell you AGAIN things that i never told you in the first place.

Fair Enough, you seem to be an expert in this field which I am not, I've simply watched too many companies blow up and been part of one which did blow up due to 'accounting irregularities'

 

[MichWolv]

Fair Enough, you seem to be an expert in this field which I am not, I've simply watched too many companies blow up and been part of one which did blow up due to 'accounting irregularities'

Preventing, detecting, correcting and punishing those responsible for accounting irregularities is my area of expertise.

 

[wannab@dis]

Might as well let it go.

Isn't that the problem here and in far too many threads? Too often these ludicrous statements are made by this group of malcontents without anyone actually asking for some fact based substantiation. They just play to their echo chamber... the false statements are lifted and repeated multiple times.

you seem to be an expert in this field which I am not

That was fairly obvious. I'm impressed you are admitting it. Thanks.

 

[Jimmy Thick]

If you actually follow the quotes and responses that what I was responding to was the suggestion that a company would fire its auditor when the auditor disagrees with it and hire a new one that is more agreeable. That is what I was saying doesn't happen. Why? Because there is a reporting requirement when a company fires an auditor due to a disagreement on accounting. And if the company does not make that report accurately, the auditor is required to report the failure to report the disagreement. So, a major company would never do this because having a report out that says the company fired its auditor over a disagreement on the application of accounting standards causes a loss in confidence in management that would devastate the stock price.

None of the companies you mention changed auditors, and therefore are not relevant to the point I made that you failed utterly to refute.

As for breaking the buck, mutual funds are actually required to do so at certain times. They try very hard to design their operations in a way that protects them from needing to that, but when circumstances dictate, they must do so.

As for the last sentence, I never said public companies SHOULD NOT be subject to forensic audits -- I just told you why they ARE NOT subject to them. And I told you that I thought more severe punishment of people was absolutely appropriate. So I cannot tell you AGAIN things that i never told you in the first place.

So in your opinion, do you think if there were dirty dealings behind the scenes in regards to funds being misused in any possible way, would it affect the stock first before any kind of knowledge is known to the public? While it may be considered insider trading, I would have to think Wall St will find out before the masses.

Jimmy Thick- ?

 

[John]

Still waiting for the proof for these claims.

I don't know squat about big business financials, insider trading or auditing. But what I do know is what I seen with my own two eyes and what I experienced a week ago at CBR. An absolute ghost town. The 5th largest resort in the WORLD and I would be surprised if there were more then a couple hundred in the entire resort. The first two days I was there, there was never more then ten people at the food court. Never a line to order food or pay for it. It picked up a little toward the end of our stay but I chalk that up to it being the weekend.

I also noticed the bus stops at the parks, there were never more then ten people or so. MK and DHS were better then moderate as far as attendance was concerned. Where were these people staying? I would say the percentage of guest that were native Americans ( not native American Indians, people from the USA.) versus foreigners was about 80% foreign. So where do these people stay? The value resorts?

 

[GoofGoof]

Unfortunately I was without power for most of this week so I couldn't get too much into the earnings release. I just got through these 10 pages and I have to say I 100% agree with @MichWolv the guy knows his stuff.

So we are supposed to believe Iger and execs at TWDC who sign the 10K are risking fines and jail time to lie because an anonymous poster on a Disney fan forum claims the room occupancy numbers are faked. The SEC filings are faked, the TEA numbers are wrong, what the heck are we supposed to talk about if every piece of quantified information out there is bogus.

 

[GoofGoof]

I have to say it was a pretty uneventful quarter for P&R overall. A few dodged questions on MM+ and that was really it. I found this a little interesting:

• Iger lead off with "Our Parks and Resorts had a great quarter setting attendance records at Walt Disney World, Hong Kong Disneyland and Tokyo Disney Resort."
• In Rasulo's prepared statements he said "attendance at our Domestic Parks and occupancy at the hotels were comparable to first quarter of last year."

I could be reading into things, but Iger made no mention of Disneyland Resort. If Walt Disney World set a quarterly attendance record (per Bob's statement) and Domestic Parks attendance is just comparable to 1st quarter last year (per Rasulo's statement) that must mean that DLR attendance is down quarter over quarter. Q1 of last year would have been only a few months after Carsland opened so I could see growth being flat, but a decrease could be bad news. Carsland is supposed to be the model to show that investing in the parks and building new, cutting edge things is the ticket to financial success.

 

[George]

Here's something many people don't know. All the earnings reports are done in Disney Dollars which luckily have traded 1:1 with regular old American dollars all these years. However, rumor has it that soon, Disney dollars will be pegged to the Vietnamese Dong. The impact of this on the bottom line remains anyone's guess.

 

[Hakunamatata]

Here's something many people don't know. All the earnings reports are done in Disney Dollars which luckily have traded 1:1 with regular old American dollars all these years. However, rumor has it that soon, Disney dollars will be pegged to the Vietnamese Dong. The impact of this on the bottom line remains anyone's guess.

I would have guessed bit coin, but ding dongs are just as valuable.

 

[MarkTwain]

I have to say it was a pretty uneventful quarter for P&R overall. A few dodged questions on MM+ and that was really it. I found this a little interesting:

• Iger lead off with "Our Parks and Resorts had a great quarter setting attendance records at Walt Disney World, Hong Kong Disneyland and Tokyo Disney Resort."
• In Rasulo's prepared statements he said "attendance at our Domestic Parks and occupancy at the hotels were comparable to first quarter of last year."

I could be reading into things, but Iger made no mention of Disneyland Resort. If Walt Disney World set a quarterly attendance record (per Bob's statement) and Domestic Parks attendance is just comparable to 1st quarter last year (per Rasulo's statement) that must mean that DLR attendance is down quarter over quarter. Q1 of last year would have been only a few months after Carsland opened so I could see growth being flat, but a decrease could be bad news. Carsland is supposed to be the model to show that investing in the parks and building new, cutting edge things is the ticket to financial success.

The rumor on MiceChat is that attendance at Disneyland is indeed down. Supposedly they had a relatively slow Christmas.