TWDC 2QFY16 Earnings Call Thread

[zakattack99]

Forget infinity they just announced Battlefront 2 for 2017... maybe this one will have single player? Please?...

 

[ford91exploder]

We certainly did that. And we have no plans to go during the Christmas holiday's anymore. Those lights were fantastic.

We used to plan our trips around the holidays just to see the lights. No longer because minus the light's what's special anymore at WDW during the holidays, the overpriced parties so you can see the holiday parade (which is included with admission at DL, Paris and Tokyo) the crowding, the (LACK) of Christmas decor.

I think Disney has answered Gordon Behune's question when he took over Continental from Frank Lorenzo's Texas Air, "How much cheese can you take away from a pizza before it stops being a pizza" Bob has figured out the answer to that one.

 

[flynnibus]

Well I guess we all have our opinions, but I like Main Street much better than that weird enigma that is World Bazaar. While it looks deceivingly nice in pictures, it is lackluster in person, especially the lightning package at night. Also Tomorrowland at TDL is ugly, it looks like MK from the 70s. While yes it has Star Tours, that ride is also at WDW, and I am not a big fan of the Monsters Inc Ride. Its quite boring and pointless, I would rather have Laugh Floor, more entertaining and not nearly as long of a line. I actually like the DCA version of the Monsters Inc Ride better than Tokyo's and obviously it doesn't get nearly as long of a line.

Also I really like Peoplemover and Hall of President's. While TDL obviously isn't going to have Hall of Presidents, I think it really does add a lot to MK's lineup. Although I do really enjoy the Japan version of the Tiki Room with Stitch .

The TL;DR version.. TDL is basically the time capsule version of the Magic Kingdom - largely frozen in time.

 

[BrianLo]

Having finally read through the 10Q, the really shocking number is that domestic Parks & Resorts revenue was up only 5.7% despite the biggest price increases in a decade.

If this trend continues in the next quarter or two, then it will be clear that Disney has pushed prices too far.

I definitely think we've crossed over the optimal price point and are now going the opposite direction.

The biggest canary in the coal mine is Universal Studios Hollywood. Attendance is basically flat after their major efforts of recent years capped off by Potter. I realize the point was to rush the park towards Disneyland/WDW/USO pricing levels to stymy crowds. But, they simply hit the ceiling and I think were a little surprised at just how well price counteracted Potter.

Unlike the other three major resorts, USH actually thrives off the one day ticket sales. It has no other parks to help 'cheapen' the experience with a multi-day pass like WDW. It doesn't offer the selection of attraction and bargain basement on-property hotels that USO has. DL of course thrives by Annual pass holders (who are still paying no where near that 1-day price level the way most AP's visit) and their attendance is propped by the 60th.

It's no surprise that WDW is now also feeling the heat, I'd expect USO will likely be next if they keep pumping prices the way they are. Quite honestly, I very much think prices will (in the next year or two) stop increasing to the crazy degree we've seen in the recent past.

 

[OvertheHorizon]

One quarterly report doesn't make a trend. We'll see what happens in the next few quarters. There are plenty of reasons for people to stay away from WDW (waiting for new attractions or new lands to open). It was clear that Disney saw the attendance dip when they waived the March blackout period for certain levels of Florida annual pass holders. The north had a relatively mild winter, so perhaps fewer people decided they needed to get away to Florida. Not sure how Easter holiday in the same time period last year might have affected attendance.

I find it interesting that after the two previous stock reports (4th Qtr, and 1st Qtr) showed Disney earnings at higher than expected levels... Disney stock fell. Now we have a quarter where the performance is not what analysts expected and the stock drops.

 

[flynnibus]

I find it interesting that after the two previous stock reports (4th Qtr, and 1st Qtr) showed Disney earnings at higher than expected levels... Disney stock fell. Now we have a quarter where the performance is not what analysts expected and the stock drops.

I find it interesting that you are surprised when the company misses estimates, those people that make the estimates punish them...

 

[ford91exploder]

One quarterly report doesn't make a trend. We'll see what happens in the next few quarters. There are plenty of reasons for people to stay away from WDW (waiting for new attractions or new lands to open). It was clear that Disney saw the attendance dip when they waived the March blackout period for certain levels of Florida annual pass holders. The north had a relatively mild winter, so perhaps fewer people decided they needed to get away to Florida. Not sure how Easter holiday in the same time period last year might have affected attendance.

I find it interesting that after the two previous stock reports (4th Qtr, and 1st Qtr) showed Disney earnings at higher than expected levels... Disney stock fell. Now we have a quarter where the performance is not what analysts expected and the stock drops.

Don't worry next quarter will be worse, MUCH WORSE.

 

[OvertheHorizon]

I find it interesting that you are surprised when the company misses estimates, those people that make the estimates punish them...

Not surprised that they miss estimates. Surprised that when the stock does better than expected... price goes down.

 

[IanDLBZF]

It was clear that Disney saw the attendance dip when they waived the March blackout period for certain levels of Florida annual pass holders.

Actually, it wasn't the FL Annual Passholders, it was the 3 and 4 day tickets that saw this.

 

[ford91exploder]

I find it interesting that you are surprised when the company misses estimates, those people that make the estimates punish them...

Of course the analysts are much of what's wrong with Wall St now, A bunch of bean counters who 'forecast' how much money a company should make and thereby drive the decisions within the company to allow the company to 'meet estimates'.

It's interesting that the FTSE in the UK is now requiring that the top 100 companies NOT report earnings on a quarterly basis as they feel decisions are being made which are good for the short term stock price but bad for the business and economy long term.

 

[OvertheHorizon]

Actually, it wasn't the FL Annual Passholders, it was the 3 and 4 day tickets that saw this.

Thanks for the correction.

 

[ford91exploder]

Not surprised that they miss estimates. Surprised that when the stock does better than expected... price goes down.

It did not exceed by ENOUGH...

 

[PizzaPlanet]

Forget infinity they just announced Battlefront 2 for 2017... maybe this one will have single player? Please?...

How about all of the people who lost their jobs?

 

[jt04]

Just stop, Frank.

Your shtick wore out here a good 4-5 years ago. Why you persist astounds me.

Are you still claiming that Pandora will be canceled? Because someone needs to let the contractors know.

 

[flynnibus]

Not surprised that they miss estimates. Surprised that when the stock does better than expected... price goes down.

Because when they beat one number... but still leave people concerned based on their full report.. the FUTURE potential is clouded and so price goes down. DIS may have hit targets, but was reporting weakness in areas the analysts were focusing on (ESPN) so sediment is negative and concerns are up.. so price goes down.

 

[gdrj]

that's not what will happen for the majority IMO... some can only go during the summer months when kids are out of school so they will either pay more, or not go at all

I agree, so really the dynamic pricing is just a way to raise prices.

 

[GhostHost1000]

I agree, so really the dynamic pricing is just a way to raise prices.

for the most part yes.... to make more in the crowded periods of the year.... I mean they didn't offset it by lowering the other periods... it's just more money grabbing where they can

 

[TP2000]

Without the recently reported cost cutting measures at WDW and DLR, one could well imagine that this would have been the smallest increase since the last recession, when operating income actually declined.

The cost cutting took effect at WDW and DLR for Quarter Three, which began April 3rd.

The report and financials they disclosed yesterday were for Quarter Two, which ended April 2nd and does not include any labor savings or cost cutting at the American parks in the last five weeks.

 

[TP2000]

I think this has way more to do with the last few years having stupidly high attendance rates and the parks being over crowded. The increased prices did exactly what they needed to do: kept the revenue up while thinning the heard. The parks can't operate at the levels they had this time last year on a continuous basis.

I think you may be on to something there, at least for WDW. Although dynamic ticket pricing only took effect on March 1st, which only covers the last four weeks of this twelve weeks of financial numbers released yesterday. The real test will be Quarter Three that we are currently in, and those numbers will be released in early August.

You actually want BOTH income AND attendance to go up. If they both are going in opposite directions then something will snap soon.

That's apparently what happened in Disneyland, which had attendance and spending go up so much that it covered the losses at WDW.

You'd think they would want to keep the title "The happiest place on earth"

Picking nits here, but that's the official tagline for Disneyland. Since 1955. It has never been used for WDW, except by lazy journalists who think Disneyland and WDW are the same thing.

 

[hokielutz]

We used to plan our trips around the holidays just to see the lights. No longer because minus the light's what's special anymore at WDW during the holidays, the overpriced parties so you can see the holiday parade (which is included with admission at DL, Paris and Tokyo) the crowding, the (LACK) of Christmas decor.

.

The Lack of Christmas Decor???
You must be joking or going someplace different than I've gone to the last 10 years.