The actual data we have available?
Even when it was brand new it
wasn't as hard to get on as Rise, and within about a month anyone who had any interest in getting a VQ spot could get one. Same thing with ILLs, which were generally available for at least half the day and sometimes for almost the entire day (this will change when the VQ disappears, though).
I believe, as
@bhg469 mentioned above, even Ratatouille was harder to get on via VQ than Guardians, although I'm not positive on that.
This doesn't mean the ride is a failure (it isn't), but it's pretty obviously not driving huge crowds to EPCOT specifically to ride it. I suppose I'm speculating that that was Disney's hope/expectation, but it's not a wild leap when they spent $500 million to build it.
TRON has less capacity so it will likely be harder to ride just for that reason, but it's still unlikely to be quite as successful as 7DMT for multiple reasons. That also doesn't mean TRON will be a failure, though -- feels like people think I'm saying that when I'm not saying (and haven't said) anything remotely similar.