Toy Story and Soarin Rumors

[peter11435]

Also even if new additions did result in lower waits at TSMM (Which it would not). Lower wait times does not mean lower demand. Guests choosing to ride something else instead because the wait is too long at TSMM still counts as demand for TSMM and as a disappointed guest. Increasing capacity at popular attraction AND increasing options is the answer.

 

[hopemax]

There's a guy on the DIS, who in their FP+ discussions, tried to pull together all the THRC/OHRC's property wide. I googled and did see it in one discussion here, but probably people aren't too familiar with it. http://crooksinwdw.wordpress.com/2013/12/14/theoreticaloperational-hourly-ride-capacity-at-wdw/ For the Studios, TSMM is listed at only 900/hr OHRC. I found an old post from here, where someone said it was 1/3rd the capacity of Kilimanjaro Safaris. If that's at all in the ballpark, that's really low for a headliner attraction. Star Tours and RnRC were listed at 1600, ToT at 1800 and Great Movie Ride over 2100. It doesn't have to be an "either or" proposition, WDW could have screwed up by not having enough attractions in the Studios AND built something with poor capacity. Personally, I always thought WDW got scared of "overbuilding" rides like the old school Epcot attractions, but then they swung the pendulum too far the other way. They guaranteed the ride would always have a line, therefore it was "popular." The anti-Hogwarts Express issue.

 

[MrNonacho]

There's a guy on the DIS, who in their FP+ discussions, tried to pull together all the THRC/OHRC's property wide. I googled and did see it in one discussion here, but probably people aren't too familiar with it. http://crooksinwdw.wordpress.com/2013/12/14/theoreticaloperational-hourly-ride-capacity-at-wdw/ For the Studios, TSMM is listed at only 900/hr OHRC.

Can't speak for TSMM, but many of the entries on that chart are WAY off.

 

[hopemax]

I suppose you can also figure it, 16 seats, 38 second dispatch time. 3600 sec per hour = 1515 max. If 13 seats full = 1231/hr. That still seems low, for the role TSMM plays as a headliner attraction. If you increased it 50% with another track, that would put it in the 1800-2200 range. Which seems a lot more reasonable, imo.

 

[1023]

Clearly this discussion is about to deteriorate into queuing theory. Actually several discussions going on at the moment are queuing theory. As much as I hate it, we'll see if we can pin down some numbers.

For TSMM, lines are long because they can only funnel a little over 900 folks through the ride per hour. Increasing capacity by 50% means that about 1450 people per hour could pass through. (All of this is theory as the number will depend largely on the efficiency of operators and the number of ADA compliant loads introduced into the model.) This is an increase of the number of people who can get through the queue but may not reflect the number of people who will queue based on wait time.

Now we have to analyze human behavior, at what point will a guest decide that the wait time is reasonable for them to queue. This decision can involve the economic principles of scarcity, familial status, previous experience, etc. Originally, I thought I would post examples of decision making processes of 2 different families traveling DHS, but previous experience here has reminded me to fore go that. Instead I offer this:

Everyone who approaches an attraction makes a series of choices. Is the line so long that it's not worth the experience is primary one? Will someone in my party be aggrieved by the decision to wait in one way or the other? Is there another opportunity available at a later time that will allow for the experience? Etc....

To use numbers plainly, a family of 4 will use .25% of the rides projected hourly capacity when operating at peak efficiency including the new queuing capacity of 1450 guests per hour. If a full mirror of the attraction as it exists today is created and the number is 1800 guests per hour, they are still using .125% .

Speaking as someone who travels as a couple and as a large extended family, I can say that we will get our FP- times as early in the morning as is available, arrive at rope drop, and ride this attraction twice. As glutenous as this may be, it is because there are few other entertaining options at this half day park. This fact leads us to the second part of queue theory at work here.

The availability of other compelling options balances queue times. As has been pointed out ad-nausea in many different posts on this forum, capacity is the hard and fast limit for any attraction. Having other attractive options reduces the number of guests opting to re-experience the same attraction. If you have more to offer, you spread out the guests.

I'll give you the Blue Sky capacity thought here;

If DHS had TSMM ride capacity tripled but 2 other rides weren't built would the 15minute average wait time for TSMM be worth it? Keep in mind there is an average daily attendance at the park of 28,000. That means every single guest would be able to experience the attraction at least once. Maybe there wold be five minutes of wait. Is the lack of new development made up for by this factor? I would rather have 2 more attractions that are equally compelling.

Having other options will balance queuing issues and discourage glutinous consumption by most. Capacity increase isn't a bad idea, it's just another short sighted one.

*1023*

P.S. I am sure my math is fishy on the percentages and such. It's not my forte`.

 

[Cubfan300]

are they still running them up the exit? i thought that they had done away with that and the queue was large enough to turn in an ECV...

It is. When I broke my foot two years ago, I had to take the ECV through the queue.

 

[Tom]

RSoxN1, if you have reviewed my past post, you'll notice where the above image first came from. (Though without the colors) You will also see that I don't speak often to projects without making sure the information I am giving is accurate at the time.

Folks are always welcome to be skeptical, so much is said that is just wishing or "talk" that never goes beyond just that.

As for who I am or my sources, I'll just let my past speak for itself. Sorry, but the few here who do know me personally understand why.

As for it being done, It might not be a new attraction as many on the boards would like but the need is there for the average guest. I personally would love a new attraction (give it time folks, they are coming) but TSM could use the 3rd track.

As for design, the set up is to have the 3rd track as the FP+ queue, with it's own load/unload. (The load/unload information is still a little vague for me. Just being honest)

This is the point that has been missed through much of this thread. To increase capacity, you have to increase the number of vehicle dispatches over a given time period. You can have 5 vehicles on 100' of track, or 500 vehicles on a mile of track, but unless you dispatch vehicles faster or can dispatch more into the ride, capacity is exactly the same.

In the case of TSMM, the ONLY way to increase capacity capacity is to add loading areas and be able to simultaneously dispatch more vehicles into the attraction, which means adding another platform. Simply adding track will do absolutely nothing.

 

[roj2323]

Has anyone put any thought into TDO just modifying the load unload area of Toy Story so they can load more cars at the same time? It seems to me like they could load 4 cars at the same time instead of the current 2 if they ditched the dedicated ADA load point and ran all of the cars through that area, eliminate the switches and fill in the ADA bypass track with a load cue.

 

[startraveler]

It takes a long time to load a wheelchair. They have to take the seat out, etc. it would really hold up all the other cars.

 

[Rob562]

Has anyone put any thought into TDO just modifying the load unload area of Toy Story so they can load more cars at the same time? It seems to me like they could load 4 cars at the same time instead of the current 2 if they ditched the dedicated ADA load point and ran all of the cars through that area, eliminate the switches and fill in the ADA bypass track with a load cue.

As @Tom said in the post above yours, it has nothing to do with loading vehicles but rather the capacity for the ride system to dispatch vehicles into the attraction. You can load 6 vehicles at a time, but if the ride system can only accept one vehicle every 15 seconds it defeats the purpose. As long as they can load vehicles fast enough for there to always be a car ready post-Load to be funneled into the ride system, then they're running at full capacity.

-Rob

 

[RSoxNo1]

I can confirm this is true... Half of soundstage 1 will become a TSMM 3rd fastpass+ track.... Plus I can also hint at a very near closing of Indiana Jones, backlot express, echo lake and tear down of AIE theater.... I cannot however confirm what's going here I can only tell you they'll be closing in the near future.

So the new track, which will represent 33% of the attraction's capacity will accommodate all of Fastpass+ which represents 60-70% of the hourly capacity? Sorry, try again.

 

[RSoxNo1]

This is simply not true. The only way this would be the case is if a significant number of guests were riding TSMM multiple times because they had nothing else to do. Since that is not the case, demand for TSMM would not be reduced by the addition of additional attractions. The same number of guests who want to experience TSMM today would still want to experience the attraction then. In fact there would probably be more guests wishing to ride TSMM due to increased attendance driven by the new attractions.

The number of guests who visit the studios on average is greater than the daily capacity of the attraction. More importantly the percentage of studios guests wishing to ride exceeds the capacity of the attraction.

I'm not saying they should not build new attractions. They absolutely should. But they also need to increase capacity where needed.

The flaw in your logic is that it assumes that everyone that wants to ride Toy Story Mania is currently doing so. That's not the case. Look at Dumbo, I just checked the other day and it had 45 minute waits midday. Yes, demand was hurt because of the location change, but by allowing more people to ride, it's making more people willing to do so.

Many people are willing to wait 40 minutes, but not 60, adding capacity helps with this. Adding additional attractions helps, but only so much. If that attraction raises attendance to the point where the additional thing to do is offset by the increased crowds then the new attraction doesn't help the wait times at the old attraction.

 

[RSoxNo1]

There's a guy on the DIS, who in their FP+ discussions, tried to pull together all the THRC/OHRC's property wide. I googled and did see it in one discussion here, but probably people aren't too familiar with it. http://crooksinwdw.wordpress.com/2013/12/14/theoreticaloperational-hourly-ride-capacity-at-wdw/ For the Studios, TSMM is listed at only 900/hr OHRC. I found an old post from here, where someone said it was 1/3rd the capacity of Kilimanjaro Safaris. If that's at all in the ballpark, that's really low for a headliner attraction. Star Tours and RnRC were listed at 1600, ToT at 1800 and Great Movie Ride over 2100. It doesn't have to be an "either or" proposition, WDW could have screwed up by not having enough attractions in the Studios AND built something with poor capacity. Personally, I always thought WDW got scared of "overbuilding" rides like the old school Epcot attractions, but then they swung the pendulum too far the other way. They guaranteed the ride would always have a line, therefore it was "popular." The anti-Hogwarts Express issue.

This has been posted before. These numbers are not all accurate.

 

[twebber55]

here's my optimistic side coming out...maybe TDO recognizes the changes coming to DHS and they realize they need to add capacity to TSMM because Star wars and other things will be bringing in more people

 

[doctornick]

So the new track, which will represent 33% of the attraction's capacity will accommodate all of Fastpass+ which represents 60-70% of the hourly capacity? Sorry, try again.

I thought about that point as well. Is there any way to "split" the FP+ lines and have some go to the new track and some mix in with the standby to utilize the old (current) tracks? I don't see it without a large modification of the queue setup.

 

[flyerjab]

here's my optimistic side coming out...maybe TDO recognizes the changes coming to DHS and they realize they need to add capacity to TSMM because Star wars and other things will be bringing in more people

My thoughts on this have always been that this is a precursor move. If more areas are allegedly being shutdown ahead of an alleged DHS makeover, then TSMM, the popular ride in DHS, would need to have additional capacity added...allegedly.

It needs capacity now, but will even more so if other attractions/locations are shutdown as part of a massive overhaul of the park.

Something else that I have been wondering about concerns Star Tours. If a SW Land is indeed built, will Star Tours be inaccessible for any period of time? That ride has a ton if capacity. And again, depending upon the rumors surrounding the massive (alleged) redo of this park, work could be done around that ride's current location, making it temporarily unavailable. I would think that TSMM would need to have expanded capacity in DHS prior to any large project being started.

 

[Disfan1971]

Something else that I have been wondering about concerns Star Tours. If a SW Land is indeed built, will Star Tours be inaccessible for any period of time? That ride has a ton if capacity. And again, depending upon the rumors surrounding the massive (alleged) redo of this park, work could be done around that ride's current location, making it temporarily unavailable. I would think that TSMM would need to have expanded capacity in DHS prior to any large project being started.

From what I've heard Star Tours will continue to run during the construction things can always change though the only thing is at one point there will be walls up next to the line... Switch to my assumptions not what I know... I think because of the theming around star tours if it doesn't match up well with what they put in next to it they may change the line so they can work on that but as of right now star tours will not be closing and also I cannot confirm it is Star Wars land as that has not been mentioned when I was told about the demolition/construction simply that AIE, Indiana jones, echo lake and backlot express would be closing rather soon

 

[RSoxNo1]

I thought about that point as well. Is there any way to "split" the FP+ lines and have some go to the new track and some mix in with the standby to utilize the old (current) tracks? I don't see it without a large modification of the queue setup.

Yes, the queue can be split. But if this is happening, it would make more sense for the existing tracks to be used exclusively for Fastpass+. In the event that they're sending through empty vehicles, then standby can be diverted to the existing tracks instead of over to the new track. Think of it like how Pirates is set up now. The right side is primarily used for Fastpass+, but Standby can be integrated on an as needed basis.

 

[Unplugged]

I was told about the demolition/construction simply that AIE, Indiana jones, echo lake and backlot express would be closing rather soon

Just curious....in TDO terminology, does "rather soon" translate to after the Holiday onslaught of guests? I can't imagine anyone focused on revenue more then show could possibly OK a major change in people eating offerings (Indy & Backlot Exp) anytime prior to the 2nd week of January.

I'm looking for your opinion based on discussion as I know there are no hard facts to be had.

 

[msteel]

The current 2 tracks will be standby only and the new track will be fastpass only.

Like @RSoxNo1 said, having 1/3 fastpass and 2/3 standby doesn't make sense. It should be the other way around unless they change the fastpass distribution percentages from what are commonly reported here. Now, 2 new tracks for Fastpass, that I could see.