Top 5 Movies for 2016 (They did it)

[WhatJaneSays]

Lot of interesting news and numbers.

Disney is the first studio to go past 7 billion dollars world wide in a year. They were sitting at 2.7 billion domestic on 12/18, and could easily be on track to make up the rest to get to 3+ billion by 12/31. Their domestic market share of the box office this year is at an ridiculously high 25.3%. (People were a bit nutty last year when Universal cracked over 21%, typically the top studio is in the 15%-19% range and #2 is about 1.5-2.5% under. Disney is looking at a 7.7% lead over Warner Brothers.)

Rogue One is at #18 worldwide with 388.1 million, with 2 holiday weekends to go it could pop up as high #10 before the end of the year.

Assassin's Creed, Passengers, and Sing all started on Wednesday the 21st and should have decent showings for the weekend but I don't expect any of them to overcome Rogue One's #1 spot.

 

[Princess Leia]

Lot of interesting news and numbers.

Disney is the first studio to go past 7 billion dollars world wide in a year. They were sitting at 2.7 billion domestic on 12/18, and could easily be on track to make up the rest to get to 3+ billion by 12/31. Their domestic market share of the box office this year is at an ridiculously high 25.3%. (People were a bit nutty last year when Universal cracked over 21%, typically the top studio is in the 15%-19% range and #2 is about 1.5-2.5% under. Disney is looking at a 7.7% lead over Warner Brothers.)

Rogue One is at #18 worldwide with 388.1 million, with 2 holiday weekends to go it could pop up as high #10 before the end of the year.

Assassin's Creed, Passengers, and Sing all started on Wednesday the 21st and should have decent showings for the weekend but I don't expect any of them to overcome Rogue One's #1 spot.

Not that it matters opening weekend, but both Passengers and Assassin's Creed have really awful ratings on Rotten Tomatoes.

 

[Matt_Black]

Not that it matters opening weekend, but both Passengers and Assassin's Creed have really awful ratings on Rotten Tomatoes.

A video game movie having terrible reviews? I am shocked, SHOCKED to find gambling in this establishment!

 

[Princess Leia]

A video game movie having terrible reviews? I am shocked, SHOCKED to find gambling in this establishment!

I've never played the game, but I'm a little disappointed, because the cast is great and from the trailers, the cinematography looks amazing.

Passengers is going to do okay with or without the bad score, since it Stars JLaw and Chris Pratt. Will it topple Rogue One? Probably not, but it's not going to tank at the box office this weekend.

 

[BrianLo]

They were sitting at 2.7 billion domestic on 12/18, and could easily be on track to make up the rest to get to 3+ billion by 12/31.

It's so close to 3 billion that it's nearly impossible to call. 2.97-3.02 is the range I'm getting.

It beats 3 only if Rogue One tracks exactly like the second week of TFA with the added bonus of a Fri/Sat in lieu of a slightly lost Sat to Christmas Eve. Or Moana starts tracking more like Frozen's Christmas week and less like Tangled.

I think come Monday's BO results we'll know if there is a chance or it has missed the mark.

This is all getting back to what I said in the summer, Alice was what blew the smooth sailing to 3 billion. Lots of stars need to align.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

It's so close to 3 billion that it's nearly impossible to call. 2.97-3.02 is the range I'm getting.

It beats 3 only if Rogue One tracks exactly like the second week of TFA with the added bonus of a Fri/Sat in lieu of a slightly lost Sat to Christmas Eve. Or Moana starts tracking more like Frozen's Christmas week and less like Tangled.

I think come Monday's BO results we'll know if there is a chance or it has missed the mark.

This is all getting back to what I said in the summer, Alice was what blew the smooth sailing to 3 billion. Lots of stars need to align.

After Friday's estimates Disney gained $144.8 million on the year between the 18th and 23rd for a new estimated total of 2.84 billion.

Doctor Strange is nearing the nearing it's end, but is likely to squeeze out 2-2.5 million more this year. Moana, even tracking like Tangled, is probably good for $20 million. That leaves Rogue One to make up 130-135 million in 8 days (which is about 60% of what TFA did in that similar span).

 

[BrianLo]

After Friday's estimates Disney gained $144.8 million on the year between the 18th and 23rd for a new estimated total of 2.84 billion.

Doctor Strange is nearing the nearing it's end, but is likely to squeeze out 2-2.5 million more this year. Moana, even tracking like Tangled, is probably good for $20 million. That leaves Rogue One to make up 130-135 million in 8 days (which is about 60% of what TFA did in that similar span).

Are you sure? I think you accidentally included last Sunday's take for Moana/Rogue One. As of Friday's estimates they are plus 103 million from the 2.7 billion. Box Office Mojo's 2.7 figure includes Sunday already.

Hence why it's super close. 130-135 is no problem to make up, 170-175 is another matter.

It's going to be some aggravating 2.99 billion number... but at least that leaves 2018 with a record to break.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Are you sure? I think you accidentally included last Sunday's take for Moana/Rogue One. As of Friday's estimates they are plus 103 million from the 2.7 billion. Box Office Mojo's 2.7 figure includes Sunday already.

Hence why it's super close. 130-135 is no problem to make up, 170-175 is another matter.

It's going to be some aggravating 2.99 billion number... but at least that leaves 2018 with a record to break.

I have access to comScore so I use that. I know the Moana, Strange, and earlier releases numbers are correct for 12/19-12/23. The numbers Mojo and comScore have for Rogue are very different, but comScore's report builder has been acting oddly for a few days so ... I wouldn't put it past it to be pulling the wrong numbers.

 

[doctornick]

Maybe it's premature, but I feel confident that Rogue One will end up in the top 5 and give Disney a clean sweep.

 

[BrianLo]

Maybe it's premature, but I feel confident that Rogue One will end up in the top 5 and give Disney a clean sweep.

Not premature at all! Unless you mean it winds up in the top 5 by Dec 31, which I think is a silly distinction to qualify. It's on track to cross the magical 500mil domestic.

The question has never been will Rogue One be a top five, but has been a constant question of can any rival studio crack Jungle Book. The only one for me that ever stood a chance was Fantastic Beasts, which first week established it wasn't going to happen. Even if it has been nicely legging out it won't overtake Secret Life of Pets.

 

[BrianLo]

Rogue One is having a really good week.. Its second Monday is 102% of TFA's second Monday. Its second Tuesday is 76% of TFA's second Tuesday.

So that 3 billion mark still remains a moving target that actually became feasible again. A nail biter for sure!

2.99-3.01 is my current narrowed range.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Maybe it's premature, but I feel confident that Rogue One will end up in the top 5 and give Disney a clean sweep.

Not premature at all! Unless you mean it winds up in the top 5 by Dec 31, which I think is a silly distinction to qualify. It's on track to cross the magical 500mil domestic.

The question has never been will Rogue One be a top five, but has been a constant question of can any rival studio crack Jungle Book. The only one for me that ever stood a chance was Fantastic Beasts, which first week established it wasn't going to happen. Even if it has been nicely legging out it won't overtake Secret Life of Pets.

The Domestic Top 5 for Disney is basically a sure thing at this point, Rogue One only has to gain 4.4 million to get above Deadpool. Worldwide Top 5 for 2016 is a bit more complicated depending on how you cut the year. If you only do count box office for 2016 as January 1st to December 31st then Rogue One is out but if you count the full box office of movies that came out in 2016 than they will likely be in.

Most box office final rankings are the type that count the full run of movies that came out that year. Otherwise you run in to late releases like The Force Awakens last year (and Rogue One this year) where 1/3 of it's money is made in the following year. Unfortunately that means we won't know the final results of 2016 until February. If Rogue One proves an overall the similar ratio of The Force awakens it should settle in right above The Secret Life of Pets at 880-915 million.

 

[BrianLo]

The Domestic Top 5 for Disney is basically a sure thing at this point, Rogue One only has to gain 4.4 million to get above Deadpool. Worldwide Top 5 for 2016 is a bit more complicated depending on how you cut the year. If you only do count box office for 2016 as January 1st to December 31st then Rogue One is out but if you count the full box office of movies that came out in 2016 than they will likely be in.

Most box office final rankings are the type that count the full run of movies that came out that year. Otherwise you run in to late releases like The Force Awakens last year (and Rogue One this year) where 1/3 of it's money is made in the following year. Unfortunately that means we won't know the final results of 2016 until February. If Rogue One proves an overall the similar ratio of The Force awakens it should settle in right above The Secret Life of Pets at 880-915 million.

I don't think we'll wait that long for it to make the top five. I think we'll wait that long for it to creep above Civil War... Settling somewhere in the 1.2 range.

The big what if is China. I honestly think this will could overtake TFA in China. Partially on the back of increased brand awareness and secondly they'll hawk the two major Chinese actors.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

I don't think we'll wait that long for it to make the top five. I think we'll wait that long for it to creep above Civil War... Settling somewhere in the 1.2 range.

The big what if is China. I honestly think this will could overtake TFA in China. Partially on the back of increased brand awareness and secondly they'll hawk the two major Chinese actors.

It certainly will make the top 5 before then (it just won't be until Feb once RO is out of theaters that the final #s for the year will be in).

Rogue One could match or over take The Force Awakens in China with relative ease. And on the outside I think it could still make a Billion, but not on China alone, and it's not doing well enough in other important markets to make up the difference. It's doing less than half what TFA's did in bigger markets, and a bit over a third on average for most of them.

 

[Flippin'Flounder]

Rogue One is having a really good week.. Its second Monday is 102% of TFA's second Monday. Its second Tuesday is 76% of TFA's second Tuesday.

So that 3 billion mark still remains a moving target that actually became feasible again. A nail biter for sure!

2.99-3.01 is my current narrowed range.

Around $62 million left. Last Thursday-Saturday they made around $62 million. I'd say it's not very likely at this point, but it's hard to tell.

 

[Princess Leia]

It certainly will make the top 5 before then (it just won't be until Feb once RO is out of theaters that the final #s for the year will be in).

Rogue One could match or over take The Force Awakens in China with relative ease. And on the outside I think it could still make a Billion, but not on China alone, and it's not doing well enough in other important markets to make up the difference. It's doing less than half what TFA's did in bigger markets, and a bit over a third on average for most of them.

Rogue One will outperform TFA with ease in China. TFA did poorly over there, getting beat by an animated sequel in its second week. If I didn't know that RO started filming before TFA was released, I would have guessed that Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen were cast so the movie would do better in Chinese theaters.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Disney's at 2.94 Billion for the year, with about 56.6 Million to make up today and tomorrow. I feel if they had a full weekend box to draw on they could break the 3 Billion mark, but as it is now they have to collectively do +130% of what last Friday and Saturday did. Rogue One has been going higher than trend domestically since Carrie Fisher's passing, that's a wild card that could let Rogue One make up that 56.6 million on its own. (It's just unlikely.)

 

[BrianLo]

Disney's at 2.94 Billion for the year, with about 56.6 Million to make up today and tomorrow. I feel if they had a full weekend box to draw on they could break the 3 Billion mark, but as it is now they have to collectively do +130% of what last Friday and Saturday did. Rogue One has been going higher than trend domestically since Carrie Fisher's passing, that's a wild card that could let Rogue One make up that 56.6 million on its own. (It's just unlikely.)

I think it was (is) only 40 million they need between the 30/31, not 56. Should close that gap no problem unless I'm miscalculating the current tally. Saturday will also get a bump as New Years should be a bit better than Christmas Eve, which is notoriously bad.

Fastest to 3 billion will technically now be 366 days. That's an amusing, incredibly impossible to replicate, under the wire achievement. Perhaps the real sticklers will say the extra day this year is cheating.


Looking forward, the good times keep on rolling: http://deadline.com/2016/12/most-anticipated-movies-of-2017-fandango-1201876757/

 

[Flippin'Flounder]

It's done! According to BoxOfficeMojo, Disney made $3,000,842,245 in 2016, just barely getting over the 3 billion mark. It looks like @BrianLo was spot on, go Disney!

 

[BrianLo]

It's done! According to BoxOfficeMojo, Disney made $3,000,842,245 in 2016, just barely getting over the 3 billion mark. It looks like @BrianLo was spot on, go Disney!

Ha, now I don't feel so flakey for swaying with the wind about whether it was or was not making it. Crazy accomplishment! I'm sure they are pleased to have such a nice 'round' number to swoon about.