Time for the war to begin.

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Stock Buybacks USED to be illegal because of the moral hazard, They serve to inflate EPS and as such are too frequently as a tool to boost compensation for senior leadership, I suggest you read the following article from the Harvard Business Review,

https://hbr.org/2014/09/profits-without-prosperity

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin...uired-to-vote-on-stock-buybacks/#279d3c96b1ef

If one REALLY wanted to return capital directly to investors one could declare a special dividend, But that would not inflate EPS and create 'paper wealth'.

The rule by which the SEC made share buybacks legal after being illegal for most of the stock market's history is 10b-18 adopted in 1982.
I’ve been over this with you before, but this is an inaccurate and jaded representation of buybacks.

Buybacks create real value by permanently retiring shares which make remaining shares by definition more scarce and valuable, save taxes for investors, reduce dividend costs, and increase EPS in a completely legitimate way.

Buybacks make sense at one price and don’t make sense at another. You’re entirely focused on the latter. Warren Buffett, the king, approves of buying back shares and if its good enough for him, its good enough for me.

There are countless means of inflating executive pay; buybacks certainly aren’t at the top of th list. In fact, more common, are issuance of new shares to top execs which has the OPPOSITE effect of buybacks by decreasing shareholder value by increasing share count and diluting your shares.
 
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mikejs78

Well-Known Member
So what does AA do to fund share buybacks, That's right BORROW MORE MONEY. All so the senior executives can make their bonus targets on EPS.

You are delusional if you think buybacks 'free up capital'.

No, I just understand capital markets better than you. Look, not all tools are suitable for all situations. AA is a horrible example. It's like paying principle off your mortgage (a generally good thing) by taking cash advances in your credit card. That's bad because you're replacing fairly low interest debt with high interest debt. That's what AA did and that is bad business decision making. However, Disney did it's buybacks from a cash surplus, which is equivalent to paying principle off a mortgage with money from your savings account. In that case, the interest income from savings isn't enough to offset the interest payment of the mortgage, so paying down the mortgage to reduce future interest payments is a good thing. So your blanket statement that buybacks are always wrong because AA is invalid, because it's too simplistic. Yes, AA was a bad case of buybacks. But that hardly means that all buybacks are bad - not even close.
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
Jaws was a great ride, But they needed the LAND on which Jaws sat, And UNLIKE Disney UNI put a tribute to Jaws on the pier the Shark hanging by it's tail in the fish market, Big difference from selling merch based on attractions TDO destroyed.
That shark has been around for years. They didn't just put it there as a tribute, it was part of the "area" where Jaws was located in Amity!
 

Winter

Well-Known Member
Oh, and another thing: Is it true that Shrek 4-D is closing? I saw somebody mention that earlier in this thread, but I didn't see anything when searching it up. I don't really care if it closes, but I am curious if it is real, and what it would be replaced by.
 

Nj4mwc

Well-Known Member
I still prefer Disney to Universal and have no doubt that this will never change (though I am a Uni passholder as well and likely will be until I either move away from Orlando or die). But I have noticed a trend with friends/family that we take to both Disney and Universal Orlando as well as with my kids teenage friends. The trend is that more and more, our guests seem to prefer Universal over Disney. They enjoy Disney, but just seem to feel that Uni offers more bang for their buck and it is easier to do and see everything that interests them in less time. I believe this is simply because Disney has gone so long without really doing much in the parks while Universal has been going gangbusters with their capital expenditures. Disney definitely has better brand recognition, and when they really go nuts, like they did with Pandora, I think they are able to remind everyone why they're still the boss in Orlando. I'm really happy that Disney is clearly ramping things up as otherwise, more and more people might start reevaluating their vacation priorities.
I don't think they went that nuts with pandora, FOP is amazing but the land felt like the rest of AK with glow in the dark paint splashed around, floating mountains was cool and the boat ride was just okay, Universal hopefully will always be the let's add a couple of days to a Disney trip, but pandora did not make more excited for future improvements at Disney
 

POLY LOVER

Well-Known Member
I don't think they went that nuts with pandora, FOP is amazing but the land felt like the rest of AK with glow in the dark paint splashed around, floating mountains was cool and the boat ride was just okay, Universal hopefully will always be the let's add a couple of days to a Disney trip, but pandora did not make more excited for future improvements at Disney

I love the boat ride it's just WAY to short. Years in the making and the ride can't be more than 3 minutes maybe. why!
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
I love the boat ride it's just WAY to short. Years in the making and the ride can't be more than 3 minutes maybe. why!
Because alleged studies have been made that the average human attention span is now in that range. After that time they get bored (allegedly) with the ride and want to be on their way to the next one. I have a bit of a problem believing that because it seems foolish, however, one thing we do know is the shorter the ride the more people that can ride it per hour.
 

DisneyDoctor

Well-Known Member
As a fan of both parks, no, as a fan of things that make me happy and feel like a kid again, I can't wait to sit back watch all this new development unfold.
 

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Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
No, I just understand capital markets better than you. Look, not all tools are suitable for all situations. AA is a horrible example. It's like paying principle off your mortgage (a generally good thing) by taking cash advances in your credit card. That's bad because you're replacing fairly low interest debt with high interest debt. That's what AA did and that is bad business decision making. However, Disney did it's buybacks from a cash surplus, which is equivalent to paying principle off a mortgage with money from your savings account. In that case, the interest income from savings isn't enough to offset the interest payment of the mortgage, so paying down the mortgage to reduce future interest payments is a good thing. So your blanket statement that buybacks are always wrong because AA is invalid, because it's too simplistic. Yes, AA was a bad case of buybacks. But that hardly means that all buybacks are bad - not even close.
He either doesn’t get it or doesn’t want to. I went to Wharton and all my knowledge and explanation of it to him has been futile. He has a huge axe to grind with DIS management and he isn’t completely wrong. He’s just wrong about his position on buybacks in general.

There are good and bad implementations of capital return programs and he considers buybacks all the same...they aren’t. I’d call Disney’s average to decent and Apple’s a homerun.

Theoretically, you’re using money spent on capital return programs after all resources have been spent on running the business...it’s excess. Should Disney spend more on park expansion, etc? Sure, but I’ve tried to explain it’s not a one or the other scenario. It’s not like $10b on buybacks OR $10b on park expansion. A company this large is far more complex than most people care to understand, so I’ve given up.

Btw, you probably know all this...I’m just taking the opportunity to converse with someone who has a clue.
 

AEfx

Well-Known Member
I am well aware of WDW's current capacity nightmare. As an aside, the post you linked too is quite obsolete as WDW's attendance actually declined last year. But let's even say that was an anomaly and the trend of increasing attendance will return: the parks that exist today are more than capable of being able to accommodate this rising attendance. The problem is the lack of attractions, not a lack of parks. The WDW parks are completely underdeveloped, particularly outside MK. MK is by far the smallest of the four parks, yet it has by far the most rides, and the most overall attractions (and Disneyland is much smaller and has even more), which just goes to show that the other parks can fit significantly more attractions.

There is a lot to unpack there.

First, I would hardly call it "quite obsolete" because of a 1% decrease. No projection is going to be perfect, nor all circumstances entirely predictable. If you notice, there is also a very prescient bit in there about "coming additions".

We have found out a hell of a lot more about those additions since then (namely, SWL and the boutique SW hotel, not to mention new attractions for MK, etc). For all we knew at the time we were going to get X-Wing and TIE spinner rides for Star Wars and nothing else of significance anywhere else. It remains to be seen what Pandora did for 2017 - though on that count, I do think it probably evened out the parks a bit, more than anything else, I don't expect any huge increase, but I'm sure that it was enough to put those projections back on track.

But SWL? We are pretty much getting the "best case" realistic scenario there could be. It's going to drive massive attendance to WDW, which is going to make the overall capacity issue even more dire than the post I referred you to said.

Second, I have to ask - have you ever been to Disneyland? If you have, then you should know that making such casual comparisons as you have here is completely daft when it comes to discussions like this. You are right, Disneyland is crammed solid with attractions. Attractions with entrances nearly on top of each other. Attractions with lots of outdoor bare-bones metal switchback queues. And the ones that do have long queues (a couple are comically long) aren't for aesthetic purposes but for necessity to move people to show buildings outside of the park perimeter.

They are never going to pack the Florida parks nearly as densely as Disneyland. Nor would we want them to. That doesn't mean that there aren't more expansion pads, or even that as fans we wouldn't want them to further expand each park. Or that they won't. But given the additions/replacements in the pipeline, and the fact that Disney continually wants to demand more and more days from visitors to keep them from splitting up their trips, the next step after the current additions are done is indeed a fifth gate.
 

brb1006

Well-Known Member
Oh, and another thing: Is it true that Shrek 4-D is closing? I saw somebody mention that earlier in this thread, but I didn't see anything when searching it up. I don't really care if it closes, but I am curious if it is real, and what it would be replaced by.
Martin gave hints about this in a few threads a while ago including this one.
 

bclane

Well-Known Member
I don't think they went that nuts with pandora, FOP is amazing but the land felt like the rest of AK with glow in the dark paint splashed around, floating mountains was cool and the boat ride was just okay, Universal hopefully will always be the let's add a couple of days to a Disney trip, but pandora did not make more excited for future improvements at Disney
I have the exact opposite reaction to Pandora which just illustrates to me how different we all are and how hard it is for a themepark operator to nail it for everyone these days. I walk through Pandora and feel overwhelmed by the beauty of the place, all the attention to detail, and the love I perceive that they poured into the place. It makes me even more excited for Galaxies Edge. Anyway, opinions aren’t right or wrong, they’re just opinions, but my goodness, what a challenge it has to be to try and create something that meets the expectations of and inspires today’s themepark audience.
 

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