Time for the war to begin.

[ford91exploder]

We have top men workin on it right now . . .

Top Men, segue to stevedores with a two wheeler...

 

[trainplane3]

You're in for a treat when you do get back to Universal. Mummy and MiB are still there but the other things you mention are no more. Lots of fun things to do at Uni though.

Oh I've been keeping track. It's a bummer to lose Dualing Dragons, but it's almost the case in WDW. Remove a ride and replace with a huge IP. Terminator was definitely old and was due to go but Jaws was a classic. I enjoyed Disaster for what it was, but I won't miss it too much. I mean, we'll have a shiny muscle man driving fast cars with a 100 speed transmission while out running a submarine. Those movies are total over the top action but I still somehow enjoy them.

 

[truecoat]

I really gotta go over to Universal. Only time I was there was in 2008(?) for one day on a band trip and were only allowed in the Studios, not IoA for some dumb reason. From what I rode and saw, it looked very nice. Mummy was great, MiB and Jaws were fun, Disaster was a cheesy fun ride, Terminator was cool, and X-Factor live was eeehh. I'm not a fan of their "Nothing in your pockets at all rule" though, seems a bit much.

My son thought the same thing. HIs old phone is now sitting at the bottom of the Lagoon after riding the Hulk.

 

[mikejs78]

Hyperbole much. Universal is closing the gap, but to say RIP WDW...I hope this was a case of sarcasm not coming across on the internet.

Considering that all 4 of WDW's theme parks are *all* more highly attended than either of Uni's parks (and other than MK - the most highly attended theme park IN THE WORLD, the rest are only beaten in attendance by other Disney parks and Universal Japan), I think it's very premature to say RIP Disney.

In the mind of normal people Disney still has a brand affinity that Uni does not. In fact, outside of the theme parks, Uni really doesn't have brand recognition. You don't go and say 'Oh, I'm going to see the new Universal movie that just came out" but plenty say 'Im going to see the new Disney movie". That counts for something- people associate Disney with Pixie Dust and want that park experience. Now, brand affinity alone can't sustain a business but it gives Disney years of leeway. The question is whether they squander it or they invest wisely to stay ahead. The sooner they start the better, and Pandora/Star Wars/Epcot Refurb are good first steps. But that can't be the end of it.

 

[mikejs78]

Did you not read my earlier post?Disney could have purchased LucasFilm and MARVEL and paid for Half of SDL for what they are spending on stock buybacks this year alone!

There is PLENTY of money but its being misspent

Stock buybacks are their own kind of investment. You really don't understand how a public company works.

 

[marni1971]

I really gotta go over to Universal. Only time I was there was in 2008(?) for one day on a band trip and were only allowed in the Studios, not IoA for some dumb reason. From what I rode and saw, it looked very nice. Mummy was great, MiB and Jaws were fun, Disaster was a cheesy fun ride, Terminator was cool, and X-Factor live was eeehh. I'm not a fan of their "Nothing in your pockets at all rule" though, seems a bit much.

Everytime I'm in WDW I always think "oh Universal would be a nice day or 2 day trip" and then just don't follow through on it. But as WDW gets more stale, I get a little closer to Universal. It never really set in until WoL closed. For some reason that made me feel like they stopped caring. I understand it was sponsor related but still, a major company like Disney shouldn't be so reliant on a sponsor to keep a pavilion/attraction open unless there are near term plans for it (like 3 years to reopen if they are changing the direction/ride). I started paying attention to the details of rides as effects broke and weren't repaired...sending the point home that this won't change until the park takes a hit (attendance/money/etc). This bit of "renewed" competition starting (Uni moving along while WDW panics for new stuff) should make things very interesting for everyone in Orlando. I'm looking forward to what comes out of it.

Absolutely you have to get over there. The studios in particular are barely recognisable to 2008.

I don’t recall if details were given about the “nothing in your pockets” rule but there’s a very good reason for it. It wasn’t just Dragons.

 

[trainplane3]

My son thought the same thing. HIs old phone is now sitting at the bottom of the Lagoon after riding the Hulk.

I've been having a phone/wallet/keys in my pocket at several parks (Cedar Point, Kings Dominion, Busch Gardens Williamsburg, Kennywood, etc) over the years and haven't lost anything. But that might be due to me almost always wearing cargo shorts. I've seen change come out of jeans and I watched a phone fly out of someones gym shorts. Which if you're wearing gym shorts with any object in there, you're asking for it. It's mainly the fact that Universal is the only one that has these policies while Six Flags and Cedar Fair parks are basically "Cargo shorts are preferred, but don't cry if it falls out. And if you hurt someone, you're in trouble".

But then again, you have the people that take phones out on the rides to "get the best selfie". Ugh. I've personally seen Cedar Point staff stop the ride, go up the lift, take the phone, restart the ride, then escort them out of the park after they exit the ride.

 

[bclane]

Considering that all 4 of WDW's theme parks are *all* more highly attended than either of Uni's parks (and other than MK - the most highly attended theme park IN THE WORLD, the rest are only beaten in attendance by other Disney parks and Universal Japan), I think it's very premature to say RIP Disney.

In the mind of normal people Disney still has a brand affinity that Uni does not. In fact, outside of the theme parks, Uni really doesn't have brand recognition. You don't go and say 'Oh, I'm going to see the new Universal movie that just came out" but plenty say 'Im going to see the new Disney movie". That counts for something- people associate Disney with Pixie Dust and want that park experience. Now, brand affinity alone can't sustain a business but it gives Disney years of leeway. The question is whether they squander it or they invest wisely to stay ahead. The sooner they start the better, and Pandora/Star Wars/Epcot Refurb are good first steps. But that can't be the end of it.

I still prefer Disney to Universal and have no doubt that this will never change (though I am a Uni passholder as well and likely will be until I either move away from Orlando or die). But I have noticed a trend with friends/family that we take to both Disney and Universal Orlando as well as with my kids teenage friends. The trend is that more and more, our guests seem to prefer Universal over Disney. They enjoy Disney, but just seem to feel that Uni offers more bang for their buck and it is easier to do and see everything that interests them in less time. I believe this is simply because Disney has gone so long without really doing much in the parks while Universal has been going gangbusters with their capital expenditures. Disney definitely has better brand recognition, and when they really go nuts, like they did with Pandora, I think they are able to remind everyone why they're still the boss in Orlando. I'm really happy that Disney is clearly ramping things up as otherwise, more and more people might start reevaluating their vacation priorities.

 

[HauntedPirate]

Stock buybacks are their own kind of investment. You really don't understand how a public company works.

Stock buybacks are an investment in current and future management whose compensation is closely tied to stock options. It's juuuuust a bit of a stretch to believe that a CEO who currently holds over 1.1 million shares of TWDC stock has been authorizing years and years of stock buybacks because they make the company stronger. Nah, it has to be that...

 

[AEfx]

You're clearly not understanding. I am referring to an increase in price as a direct result of the new gate, above and beyond the regular, inevitable price increases.

Oh, no, I understand what you are saying. You just aren't correct. Historically, that has not been the case. Neither the addition of the Studios nor AK affected the price increase cadence. You just don't know what you are talking about.

It's not that I'm against the concept of expanding a resort. I think it makes plenty of sense for Universal right now. It just makes no sense for WDW to do so in the near future.

It depends on what you mean by "near future". Given the long lead time between Disney announcements/construction/etc., they will likely have to break ground in the next five or six years. For a better explanation than I can give, see this post by our resident statistic expert, @ParentsOf4 , with all the relevant data indicating the need. It's from a couple of years ago, but it certainly has started to play out as predicted.

 

[mikejs78]

Stock buybacks are an investment in current and future management whose compensation is closely tied to stock options. It's juuuuust a bit of a stretch to believe that a CEO who currently holds over 1.1 million shares of TWDC stock has been authorizing years and years of stock buybacks because they make the company stronger. Nah, it has to be that...

Irrespective of Iger's holdings, buybacks are like paying down principle on a loan. Your overall long term spend is much less, making your capital more valuable. Buybacks do that for public companies.

 

[ford91exploder]

Stock buybacks are their own kind of investment. You really don't understand how a public company works.

Stock Buybacks USED to be illegal because of the moral hazard, They serve to inflate EPS and as such are too frequently as a tool to boost compensation for senior leadership, I suggest you read the following article from the Harvard Business Review,

https://hbr.org/2014/09/profits-without-prosperity

https://www.forbes.com/sites/aalsin...uired-to-vote-on-stock-buybacks/#279d3c96b1ef

If one REALLY wanted to return capital directly to investors one could declare a special dividend, But that would not inflate EPS and create 'paper wealth'.

The rule by which the SEC made share buybacks legal after being illegal for most of the stock market's history is 10b-18 adopted in 1982.

 

[ford91exploder]

There was no reason to get rid of Jaws. It's not like anything else is going on in the lake. At the very least rebrand it as harry potters gillyweed goblet of fire and the line would go around the entire lake.

Jaws was a great ride, But they needed the LAND on which Jaws sat, And UNLIKE Disney UNI put a tribute to Jaws on the pier the Shark hanging by it's tail in the fish market, Big difference from selling merch based on attractions TDO destroyed.

 

[ford91exploder]

Irrespective of Iger's holdings, buybacks are like paying down principle on a loan. Your overall long term spend is much less, making your capital more valuable. Buybacks do that for public companies.

They make the STOCK more valuable which has ZIP to do with what the company has available to invest in growing the company in fact buybacks make companies weaker a sterling example is American Airlines 19 BILLION dollars in debt, What do they do pay off the debt, Hell no they repurchase BILLIONS in stock to make their earnings look better, (Hint earnings would also be better if you don't have debt service).

 

[DisneyDodo]

Oh, no, I understand what you are saying. You just aren't correct. Historically, that has not been the case. Neither the addition of the Studios nor AK affected the price increase cadence. You just don't know what you are talking about.



It depends on what you mean by "near future". Given the long lead time between Disney announcements/construction/etc., they will likely have to break ground in the next five or six years. For a better explanation than I can give, see this post by our resident statistic expert, @ParentsOf4 , with all the relevant data indicating the need. It's from a couple of years ago, but it certainly has started to play out as predicted.

I am well aware of WDW's current capacity nightmare. As an aside, the post you linked too is quite obsolete as WDW's attendance actually declined last year. But let's even say that was an anomaly and the trend of increasing attendance will return: the parks that exist today are more than capable of being able to accommodate this rising attendance. The problem is the lack of attractions, not a lack of parks. The WDW parks are completely underdeveloped, particularly outside MK. MK is by far the smallest of the four parks, yet it has by far the most rides, and the most overall attractions (and Disneyland is much smaller and has even more), which just goes to show that the other parks can fit significantly more attractions.

When judging capacity, we need to be a lot more granular than "guests per park" because that is not what directly drives long lines. We need to look at guests being entertained at any given time, which can be increased (and more cheaply) by investing more in the existing parks. Further, the "guests per park" metric is misleading because the parks have vastly diverging attendance shares - MK has historically seen about twice as many guests as each of the other three parks (again, despite being the smallest). So it's not that all of the parks have too many guests, but rather that such a high percentage of the guests are choosing to flock to the same park. You can add 100 new gates, but if there is one park that is clearly better than the other 103, the capacity issues will not go away.

 

[mikejs78]

They make the STOCK more valuable which has ZIP to do with what the company has available to invest in growing the company in fact buybacks make companies weaker a sterling example is American Airlines 19 BILLION dollars in debt, What do they do pay off the debt, Hell no they repurchase BILLIONS in stock to make their earnings look better, (Hint earnings would also be better if you don't have debt service).

You're just wrong here. AA is a bad example because they were saddled with debt. Debt is more expensive than outstanding shares.

Regarding the HBR article, a more recent analysis shows how companies that engage in stock buybacks show an average of 12% better long term growth. https://hbr.org/2017/09/the-case-for-stock-buybacks

The reality is that stock buybacks are often less expensive year over year than dividends, freeing up more capital for growth.

 

[UpAllNight]

Wow 10 rides planned for existing Uni is huge. I love the place but probably won’t head back until they sort some of their issues....ie dated Islands at IOA that look out of place compared to Potter, too many screen rides at the Studios park etc. I think F&F will be the final straw for many next year...will be interesting to see how quick they put out them fires.

 

[TwilightZone]

And UNLIKE Disney UNI put a tribute to Jaws on the pier the Shark hanging by it's tail in the fish market, Big difference from selling merch based on attractions TDO destroyed.

Disney has a boat ton of easter eggs of it's old attractions in the attractions that replaced the old ones. If anything, universal hides easter eggs of their old attractions way less. Do some looking before complaining about disney paying tribute by just merch, because they do way more than that.

 

[ford91exploder]

You're just wrong here. AA is a bad example because they were saddled with debt. Debt is more expensive than outstanding shares.

Regarding the HBR article, a more recent analysis shows how companies that engage in stock buybacks show an average of 12% better long term growth. https://hbr.org/2017/09/the-case-for-stock-buybacks

The reality is that stock buybacks are often less expensive year over year than dividends, freeing up more capital for growth.

So what does AA do to fund share buybacks, That's right BORROW MORE MONEY. All so the senior executives can make their bonus targets on EPS.

You are delusional if you think buybacks 'free up capital'.

 

[Winter]

*Title is about starting a war, made at 7:00 today, already 6 pages*

At first I thought Disney confirmed Spaceship Earth's removal and people were rioting, or something along those lines. lol.