The Spirited Seventh Heaven ...

[stevehousse]

I was just thinking...since Marvel is able to be in DL, do u think since Star Wars land is replacing Toontown, that maybe Star Tours will be relocated to the new land, and replaced with the Iron Man simulator that's going overseas, and maybe a brand new 3D movie starring Marvel Characters to take over Capt EO??? Wishful thinking I know, but it would be cool...

 

[phillip sugarman]

Remember don't get ahead of yourself, with Iger in charge you should expect Disneyland to spend probably around 5-10 years on a Star Wars Land, Iron Man simulator and a new Marvel 3D movie. Possibly even longer with every construction project at Disneyland being delayed. By the way, didn't Disneyland buy property a couple of months ago that they were going to use to build a new parking structure. I would have thought that they would have started by now so they can handle the big crowds during the 60 year anniversary but maybe they are starting after the anniversary.

 

[Cosmic Commando]

No one will miss these areas of DL?

The Circle D is a backstage area to take care of the MSUSA horses, as well as the other critters that have ended up at Disneyland. There's a petting zoo there, and the presidentially-pardoned turkeys used to live out their days at Disneyland for a while. The similar facility at WDW is at Ft. Wilderness (Tri-Circle D?) and the horses commute to MK. Nobody will honestly miss the petting zoo if it's replaced with something instead of just being shuttered.

Big Thunder Ranch is really just an area for seasonal events. Nobody will miss it.

The Fantasyland Theater is getting close to "missing it". The current show there is good, but not great (by my experience and estimation of others' reviews). Nobody expects that particular show to last forever, in contrast with the outcry when the Toy Story Musical was supposed to replace Aladdin at DCA. For some reason, people generally think that shows have less repeatability than rides do; with the heavily local base, I think that definitely factors in. There's nothing really special about the theater itself... although Disney did spend money to upgrade it just a few years ago for the current show that's there. Again, I think it's the kind of thing that people would complain about if it was just being closed instead of replaced.

Toontown's closing will be by far the toughest sell to the fans. There's three things going for the land: the Roger Rabbit dark ride, Mickey & Minnie's houses, and the overall art direction of the land is very good. BUT, there's a bunch of underutilized space and much of the land has been lawyerized. It's not what it once was. I'm assuming Disney will have to do something with Mickey & Minnie both for operations purposes and PR purposes, but I could definitely see them discarding the Roger Rabbit ride. That will be the toughest sell.

 

[TeriofTerror]

The mess was caused by Eisner's 'Strategic Planning' group

But I do see a desire to make the mess worse - especially with the frontrunners being finance only guys. (Rasulo and Staggs)

I guess if I've learned anything from the history of The Disney Company, it's the value of a good partnership, a "balance in the force", if you will. By having Roy around to handle the money and keep him grounded, Walt was able to reach his full potential as a creative genius.
I'll skip over the Donn Tatum/Card Walker/Ron Miller regimes. This is not in any way to disparage them; I just think they had impossibly big shoes to fill. What's that old coaching adage? You don’t want to be the guy who follows the legend. You want to be the guy who follows that guy.
We then get the heyday of the Eisner/Wells years. I think having Frank around to tether Michael to reality and (for lack of a better term) to act as his liaison to the rest of the world allowed Eisner to really shine in his role of the Idea Man. Once Wells was gone, however, Eisner seemed to run amok ("amok, amok, amok") with no one to keep him in check and stop him from alienating people left, right, and center.
So to recap: We had creative genius Walt partnered with financially minded Roy to balance each other out, and all was well. When Eisner had Wells to be the yin to his yang it was great, but once Wells was no longer around, the lack of balance caused a great disturbance in the force.
And now we come to the Iger regime. Still out of whack, but this time it's because we have a money guy with no creative "better half" to his team. And we've all seen how that's worked out.
The post I quoted referenced two financial guys (Rasulo and Staggs) as likely successors to Iger -- yikes. John Lasseter has also been floated as a "pie in the sky" possibility, but he's a pretty busy guy already. You've also got to wonder if there's a bit of "I've seen the boss's job, and I don't want it" in play, as this may limit his time to focus on the projects he loves. But hear me out: I think we need another great partnership: a financial guy to run a lot of the day-to-day, and a creative guy to keep his eye on the future (instead of the "let's make everything look rosy just through my tenure" philosophy that seems so pervasive at TWDC today), to keep pushing for projects and ideas that keep Disney at the forefront, and to say "no" to things that negatively impact the product. In my humble opinion, this is the "Save Disney" initiative we need today.

 

[danv3]

Yeah, but I wouldn't be shocked if some of DCL's new ships are China only. Imagine if The Spirit was China only!

Are they started on ship #5+ yet? If not, they should be. As the article notes, other cruise lines are moving aggressively into Asia. RCL sending new ships there being just one example.

 

[asianway]

The Circle D is a backstage area to take care of the MSUSA horses, as well as the other critters that have ended up at Disneyland. There's a petting zoo there, and the presidentially-pardoned turkeys used to live out their days at Disneyland for a while. The similar facility at WDW is at Ft. Wilderness (Tri-Circle D?) and the horses commute to MK. Nobody will honestly miss the petting zoo if it's replaced with something instead of just being shuttered.

Big Thunder Ranch is really just an area for seasonal events. Nobody will miss it.

The Fantasyland Theater is getting close to "missing it". The current show there is good, but not great (by my experience and estimation of others' reviews). Nobody expects that particular show to last forever, in contrast with the outcry when the Toy Story Musical was supposed to replace Aladdin at DCA. For some reason, people generally think that shows have less repeatability than rides do; with the heavily local base, I think that definitely factors in. There's nothing really special about the theater itself... although Disney did spend money to upgrade it just a few years ago for the current show that's there. Again, I think it's the kind of thing that people would complain about if it was just being closed instead of replaced.

Toontown's closing will be by far the toughest sell to the fans. There's three things going for the land: the Roger Rabbit dark ride, Mickey & Minnie's houses, and the overall art direction of the land is very good. BUT, there's a bunch of underutilized space and much of the land has been lawyerized. It's not what it once was. I'm assuming Disney will have to do something with Mickey & Minnie both for operations purposes and PR purposes, but I could definitely see them discarding the Roger Rabbit ride. That will be the toughest sell.

Uh oh, if Mickey needs to relocate...

Mr Lincoln, I'm looking at you

 

[ford91exploder]

A bear raid on a healthy S&P and DOW component? Is this a joke? Do you realize the amount of wealth needed for a "bear RAID" on a company valued at 150 billion? Hopefully this is just a poor choice of words.

Two words 'Naked Short' - All TWDC needs is for something to materially affect one of their lines of business and the shorts will be all over them as you recall the naked short selling brought down Lehman Bros in a matter of days.

 

[ford91exploder]

There is, and will continue to be lots of money to be made in China. This is no surprise to me.

For the Chinese -remember the chinese provincial governments are the majority owners of the parks in China, If Disney annoys the chinese they will simply seize the 'foreign asset' and Disney will be out in the cold.

Just ask Fellowes and Audi how well their chinese 'partnerships' went. The Audi copies are part for part compatible!

Fellowes

http://www.chinalawblog.com/2011/04...s_knees_in_china_blame_the_joint_venture.html

Audi

http://www.carscoops.com/2011/09/oh-chinayema-auto-presents-clones-of.html

And Google Chonda as China has copied all of the Honda small engines which were produced in China, They are sold everywhere and of course China never bothers to pay royalties. Honda may get a factory shut down now and then but it simply reopens the next day with 'New' ownership and a new name and continues to crank out honda clones.

People in the West forget China is not a nation of Laws it is a nation of personal relationships with the right connections one can do ANYTHING. Without those connections well...

 

[stlphil]

What is the one DL "attraction" that virtually everyone agrees could go and would not be missed? Why Innoventions of course.

What is the one area of DL that virtually everyone agrees needs a major facelift? Why Tomorrowland of course.

Where is there already a Star Wars presence at DL? Why Tomorrowland of course.

So where does the Disney "brain" trust want to put SW land? Why Toontown of course.

 

[ford91exploder]

This is also why your board of directors is supposed to be independent. A properly functioning BOD is not going to allow executive management to do something just to make a quick buck for themselves. In the case of DIS the stock buybacks probably make more sense anyway since there will likely be a time in the future where they miss on some movies or have to invest a lot in either an acquisition or capital improvements to existing assets. Increasing the dividend significantly would be a sign that management feels the company has no major growth prospects going forward so they are planning to return a large portion of the cash generated to the shareholders.

Actually the buybacks DO NOT make sense as you are using CASH to repurchase stock at par value on the open market. This serves to increase the P/E ratios and of course increases the value of options.

In the tech field stock buybacks are a highly developed artform. In that the 'Street punishes companies for both high levels of cash compensation and for 'excessive' issuance of options. So if you notice tech firms are ALWAYS doing buybacks so they can continue to issue options which are a major form of performance based compensation for tech companies for both the rank and file and management employees. So as long a the company keeps buybacks and option issuance in some sort of balance the 'Street is happy.

If you notice the REALLY successful companies like Microsoft, Apple and Cisco have a HUGE cash hoard as well which allows them to weather storms and enter new marketplaces. Relative to these companies Disney has a small cash reserve so the buybacks really only exist to pump the stock value as the company is expending real capital with the only result being a higher stock price which in the end makes Disney less able to withstand hits on it's business or being able to invest in new capital projects.

We will know when Disney 'Jumps the Shark' when they do a reverse split because the BoD feels DIS does not look good with a stock under $100 US.

 

[Mouse Trap]

Two words 'Naked Short' - All TWDC needs is for something to materially affect one of their lines of business and the shorts will be all over them as you recall the naked short selling brought down Lehman Bros in a matter of days.

You do realize that concept applies to EVERY company publicly traded. Don't try to fear monger people into believing Disney is susceptible to some kind of plummet no other business can encounter. If there is something fundamentally wrong with ANY businesses main streams of revenue they will encounter issues.

Forget the analysts, the big banks and the hedge fund managers! Let's all take investment advice from the guys on a Disney forum. Short DIS!

 

[ford91exploder]

You do realize that concept applies to EVERY company publicly traded. Don't try to fear monger people into believing Disney is susceptible to some kind of plummet no other businesses can encounter. If there is something fundamentally wrong with ANY businesses main streams of revenue they will encounter issues.

Disney is VERY vulnerable to a reverse in business, If you have listened to the Earnings Calls and read @ParentsOf4 posts which analyze in detail Disney's recent financial performance nearly ALL of Disney's recent financial growth is based on price increases in both the P&R and Network Holdings there is virtually NO organic growth in any of Disney's lines of business. As a stockholder this worries me A LOT.

It's not fearmongering to point out the fact that Disney's supposed growth is due almost entirely to price increases and cost cutting as those are not sustainable tools and they only work for a while. The MK had record attendance this year - yet the contemporary had occupancy levels in the 60% range something is BADLY broken in P&R as P&R SHOULD have been able to capture more of those visitors.

I know this is the last thing the social media types in Burbank and Celebration Place want to hear but Disney is not going to be able to control the narrative forever.

 

[Mouse Trap]

Disney is VERY vulnerable to a reverse in business, If you have listened to the Earnings Calls and read @ParentsOf4 posts which analyze in detail Disney's recent financial performance nearly ALL of Disney's recent financial growth is based on price increases in both the P&R and Network Holdings there is virtually NO organic growth in any of Disney's lines of business. As a stockholder this worries me A LOT.

It's not fearmongering to point out the fact that Disney's supposed growth is due almost entirely to price increases and cost cutting as those are not sustainable tools and they only work for a while. The MK had record attendance this year - yet the contemporary had occupancy levels in the 60% range something is BADLY broken in P&R as P&R SHOULD have been able to capture more of those visitors.

I know this is the last thing the social media types in Burbank and Celebration Place want to hear but Disney is not going to be able to control the narrative forever.

If it worries you, sell. I'll be happy to pickup your shares after the market corrects a bit. Disney is doomed and the only people who see it are the retail investors.

 

[ford91exploder]

If it worries you, sell. I'll be happy to pickup your shares after the market corrects a bit. Disney is doomed and the only people who see it are the retail investors.

How do you KNOW that I'm a retail investor Hm?, Remember the market is like lemmings they all follow the hot items right over the cliff in many cases. For every company which has failed there were numerous 'voices in the wilderness' looking at the FUNDAMENTALS and not looking at the stock price and pointing out that the company was a lot weaker than the stock price indicated.

 

[ford91exploder]

You do realize that concept applies to EVERY company publicly traded. Don't try to fear monger people into believing Disney is susceptible to some kind of plummet no other business can encounter. If there is something fundamentally wrong with ANY businesses main streams of revenue they will encounter issues.

Forget the analysts, the big banks and the hedge fund managers! Let's all take investment advice from the guys on a Disney forum. Short DIS!

All it will take is a disruption in international air travel because of P&R's recent overdependence on international visitors - Look at current events worldwide and think on the possibilities for a while.

 

[StageFrenzy]

How do you KNOW that I'm a retail investor Hm?, Remember the market is like lemmings they all follow the hot items right over the cliff in many cases. For every company which has failed there were numerous 'voices in the wilderness' looking at the FUNDAMENTALS and not looking at the stock price and pointing out that the company was a lot weaker than the stock price indicated.

Fun fact: lemmings really don't go over the Cliff. The production team at Disney chased them over the cliff. Kind of sad for a nature documentary.

 

[GoofGoof]

Disney is VERY vulnerable to a reverse in business, If you have listened to the Earnings Calls and read @ParentsOf4 posts which analyze in detail Disney's recent financial performance nearly ALL of Disney's recent financial growth is based on price increases in both the P&R and Network Holdings there is virtually NO organic growth in any of Disney's lines of business. As a stockholder this worries me A LOT.

It's not fearmongering to point out the fact that Disney's supposed growth is due almost entirely to price increases and cost cutting as those are not sustainable tools and they only work for a while. The MK had record attendance this year - yet the contemporary had occupancy levels in the 60% range something is BADLY broken in P&R as P&R SHOULD have been able to capture more of those visitors.

I know this is the last thing the social media types in Burbank and Celebration Place want to hear but Disney is not going to be able to control the narrative forever.

This may be true of WDW, but it's not true of TWDC in total. The acquisitions they made (Pixar, Marvel and eventually Lucas) are paying off big time. They even had their own hit movie...something about a snowman and ice with a catchy tune The movie studio is doing quite well. Network TV is...well network TV. At best you can say ABC is in no worse shape than any other network. ESPN is still king in sports. I know you personally don't believe it, but college football alone could carry the network. Add in NBA playoffs, MLB coverage and some show on Monday nights in the fall and it's in pretty solid shape. Can they continue to extract aggresive growth in fees from cable companies? Maybe not, but the fees aren't going down. It's a huge money maker. On the P&R side they have a wildly successful and expanding cruise line. A 2nd park opening in China and 2 of the most visited domestic parks. Maybe some things aren't great right now at WDW, but in the grand scheme of things that's only a portion of P&R which is only a portion of the whole company. As a WDW centered forum we tend to extrapolate the issues at WDW to the whole company.

All that being said there is some risk to the business. There is a risk to almost any business. The studios aren't going to hit a home run every time. They will eventually have a big failure. I think there are something like 10 superhero movies slated to come out in the next 7 years. Could be a little bit of overkill there. The parks could face issues if the economy worsens or a 9/11 type event occurred again. They doubled down on their political and foreign currency risks in China. ABC could become a train wreck. Starting with Eisner and working through Iger TWDC has diversified it's business. That helps to counter a major problem in any one area. I'm not saying the company is too big to fail, but I also don't see the imminent demise of the company either.

 

[GoofGoof]

Actually the buybacks DO NOT make sense as you are using CASH to repurchase stock at par value on the open market. This serves to increase the P/E ratios and of course increases the value of options.

We were just talking about buybacks vs dividends. For DIS the buybacks make sense when compared to increasing the dividend. Disney was sitting on a pile of excess cash from some recent success. Sure, I would prefer they dumped it back into WDW, but if they were planning on returning it to shareholders it makes more sense to do it as a buyback rather than increasing the dividend. There is no guarantee that the same amount of excess cash will be available. Increasing the dividend would imply that.

Here's a question. If you are a shareholder and have very little faith in the ability of the current management team then why would you not want them to return capital to you? Bump up the stock price as much as possible before you sell.

 

[GoofGoof]

All it will take is a disruption in international air travel because of P&R's recent overdependence on international visitors - Look at current events worldwide and think on the possibilities for a while.

Valid point, but really mainly a WDW issue. Visitors at DLR are primarily local or at least domestic. China and Japan attract Chinese and Japanese tourists. WDW is really their only park heavily dependent on foreign tourists who need to fly in.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Valid point, but really mainly a WDW issue. Visitors at DLR are primarily local or at least domestic. China and Japan attract Chinese and Japanese tourists. WDW is really their only park heavily dependent on foreign tourists who need to fly in.

I think the idea of Disneyland being a regional park is a little overstated. What is now Disney's Paradise Pier Hotel was originally built by a Japanese firm to cater to Japanese tourists visiting Disneyland. The Government of Hong Kong has been worried about losing potential guests to Shanghai Disneyland since the late 1990s.