After thinking about it a bit further, it occurred to me what needs to happen at WDW.
WDW needs to build.
Some historical perspective is needed to explain this simple statement.
WDW’s business was on shaky ground prior to 9/11 due to deteriorating economic conditions. After increasing by double-digits for 6 consecutive years, P&R revenue increased by only 2.9% in fiscal year 2001. (Note that Disney’s fiscal year ends in September.)
As a direct result of 9/11, P&R revenue
decreased by 7.7% in 2002 and decreased another 0.8% in 2003.
P&R investments were immediately impacted. They went from over
20% of P&R revenue in 2001 to under
10% in 2002.
A lot of what’s counted as “investing activities” is basic maintenance; Furniture, Fixtures, & Equipment (FF&E) in the business world vernacular. Essentially, what happened after 9/11 was that most special projects were cancelled and capital expenditures were limited to basic maintenance. Disney cut P&R budgets to the bone.
Those who remember the time might recall WDW closing some hotel buildings and even entire hotels. WDW went into survival mode.
Now, in that financial environment, P&R investments as a percentage of revenue cratered at
9.0% in 2003 before rebounding to
15.9% in Eisner’s last fiscal year (2005).
Yet Iger managed to average
9.6% during his first 4 years as CEO. From Wall Street’s perspective, “under 10%” became the new norm.
When the number increased to
23% in 2011 and 2012, Wall Street was concerned. Eisner and Rasulo frequently were asked, “When are you going to reduce P&R investments?”
In 2013 and the first half of 2014, the number was down to about
15%. Taking into consideration the large financial commitment to Shanghai Disneyland, domestic P&R investing activities currently are at post-9/11 levels.
Yet for Eisner’s tenure prior to 9/11, P&R investments as a percentage of revenue averaged over
26%.
Iger, Rasulo, and Wall Street think that investing
15% is sufficient. However, historically, it’s an incredibly low number for Disney.
What Iger & Rasulo have done is establish a new low standard for P&R investments that Wall Street has become accustomed to.
For the last 3 years, theme park revenue growth primarily has been through higher prices. With the notable exception of Cars Land, this is what Disney reports quarter after quarter.
“Perpetual price increase” is not a viable long-term business strategy. Not surprisingly, customers expect to receive more when they are asked to pay more. Disney’s price increases are turning away a growing segment of their core market.
WDW’s business over the last few years has been propped up by a significant increase in attendance from Brazil and Argentina. The problem is: WDW has saturated that market.
Median income for guests from those two countries exceeds $100K. That places those visiting WDW in the top 2-to-3% of incomes in their respective countries. There simply aren’t enough people left in those countries who can afford WDW vacations. That market has peaked.
WDW needs to look for new sources to grow revenue. That means North America and Europe. Long-term, simply charging more only drives those markets away. Long-term, trying to squeeze pennies out of them through MyMagic+ on prices that already are up 25% over the last 3 years is simply going to be ineffective.
Rather than continuing to raise prices, Disney needs to add value back into a WDW vacation. That means either lowering prices or adding content.
There was an ecnomic boom at WDW in the mid-2000s due to creative pricing. Disney offered some really good room discounts, added Disney's Magic Express (DME), and created the less-expensive Magic Your Way (MYW) base ticket. Disney added value back into a WDW vacation.
Still, getting most senior executives to reduce prices is like asking them to sacrifice their first-born children. That leaves corporate Disney with earning money the old-fashioned way: investing.
Plain and simple, Disney needs to invest in WDW at the levels more in keeping with what it once did; levels that resulted in consistent double-digit growth.
WDW needs to build.
Oh, and getting a little more creative with pricing and adding value into the onsite hotels wouldn’t hurt either.