The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[Nemo14]

Yeah, it gets a bit dicey the more updates you provide. I wasn't suggesting you post twice, but no one ever seems to stay on topic, just separate threads for the discussion, maybe the mods can do the legwork for you on that front.

The mods do enough here without additional work for your convenience. You've been given some good suggestions here already.

 

[flynnibus]

I have an interesting question that I would love @WDW1974 to answer.

Disneyland Resort started its turn around from the same kind of situation (though maybe not as far) as WDW in order to prepare for its 50th Anniversary back in 2005.
Do you think that WDW can or will do the same?

DLR changed because of the change in leadership. The 50th was the thing they were able to argue as the point to rally all the efforts around and make arguments for why things needed to be corrected sooner rather than later.

Basically the 50th became the 'cause' the new leadership was able to argue a coordinated effort around.

It won't happen at WDW without similar change in leadership and huge things that will shame the bosses.. like people DYING on attractions due to management choices.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Yeah, it gets a bit dicey the more updates you provide. I wasn't suggesting you post twice, but no one ever seems to stay on topic, just separate threads for the discussion, maybe the mods can do the legwork for you on that front.

We've been doing a pretty good job of staying on topic....

 

[Kamikaze]

I'm not '74, but I wanted to add my own statement and comments to that query. There were a great many factors that caused Disneyland's cleanup, and I really doubt the anniversary played a huge role in that change (it just gave them a central point to work around and make it seem more official). At the time, Disneyland was suffering from a massive PR scandal due to the deaths caused by improper attraction maintenance. The fanbase was rallying against the management and even the mainstream media was involved. They were basically forced to do something due to all the negativity and scandal surrounding the park. There was also the benefit of having a CEO that actually did seem to enjoy and care about the parks when he was paying proper attention to the way his company was working, and Eisner appointed someone who knew how to handle park management to a position of power at Disneyland (until he was fired under Iger's new reign). In the end, there were a lot of important elements that led to Disneyland's cleanup. Things that aren't in play regarding Disney World and the current state of the company.

WDW has literally none of those factors at play to provide the company with any incentive for a cleanup of the way things are maintained. There have been close shaves of falling rockwork and props in several places (Splash Mountain and Tree of Life for example), but so far no one has died as a result. Unlike Disneyland, there's really not a diehard dedicated and organized movement in the fanbase to try to save the parks (nor a vocal and well respected Al Lutz like figure to rally support). And the mainstream media as a whole isn't spreading much negative news about the resort, they have in fact largely been shilling for Iger and the way Disney World is run. 74 has stated that Iger (along with his fellow high-level executives such as Rasulo) has absolutely no interest in the parks and in fact holds contempt for the parks and the guests who visit them. He in fact considered selling the parks within the past few years and shopped around for potential offers.

Unless leadership changes (and with Rasulo supposedly the front runner as Iger's replacement, things may end up far worse than they already are), it's going to be even harder for change to occur at WDW than it did for Disneyland. It may happen, but it'll probably take a long time and require a fundamental change in the way the company works.

DLR changed because of the change in leadership. The 50th was the thing they were able to argue as the point to rally all the efforts around and make arguments for why things needed to be corrected sooner rather than later.

Basically the 50th became the 'cause' the new leadership was able to argue a coordinated effort around.

It won't happen at WDW without similar change in leadership and huge things that will shame the bosses.. like people DYING on attractions due to management choices.

I was hoping for other people to discuss it as well.
I agree - the leadership doesn't care and won't.
When I was here and I was more ... blue ... I tried to make it clear what the removal of Eisner meant. Now, going on ten years later, we know.

 

[Nemo14]

We've been doing a pretty good job of staying on topic....

more or less....

 

[marni1971]

You just proved next gen is working. Of course Disney is locking people into staying on property. Universal is doing the same thing with their new hotels. Before long they will both cut things out of season tickets unless you stay on property or at an affiliate hotel/timeshare. These parks are for the vacationer and not locals.

Once again, proof?

Where's your proof?

 

[marni1971]

They are both doing it and have both said it's their plan. Only the blind can't see this.

Brilliant. Do provide proof then.

 

[GoofGoof]

Don't you realize that adding dvc to a resort drives up the cost for that resort?
That way dvc seems like a great bargain.

It will probably lead to higher prices some times of the year when demand at the current price point will exceed supply. If the reports posted here are correct and some deluxe resorts are in the low 60 percent occupancy currently then taking away a third of the rooms would still not lead to a shortage of rooms at current prices.

The long winded answer is if WL and Poly rates go up significantly once the hotel rooms are taken off line and replaced with DVC then the occupancy wasn't as bad as reported. If the rates don't change much then the numbers probably really were in the low 60s. Anyone know what Poly cash prices have done since they took the long houses off line for DVC? May be too early to tell since they are doing all that construction and that could artificially deflate demand since people want a pool and don't want to see/hear construction all day.

 

[Kamikaze]

I just read that the cost of July 4th week at the WL has went up 85% in the last 4 years. Can anyone confirm that?

Probably not true. I can get 2011 numbers but I don't see 2010 anywhere quickly.

Here's 2011:
Regular Season 1
July 4 - 16
Standard View
Sun - Thurs $310
Fri & Sat $335

2014:
Summer Season May 30 - July 12
Standard View $387

$310 to $387 is a 25% increase.
$335 to $387 is a 15.5% increase.

A week (5 x 310 + 2 x 335) $2220 vs $2709 is a 22% increase.

Still high, and probably a little higher since I'm sure prices went up 2010 to 2011, but its going to be about a 25% increase, not 85%.

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

It will probably lead to higher prices some times of the year when demand at the current price point will exceed supply. If the reports posted here are correct and some deluxe resorts are in the low 60 percent occupancy currently then taking away a third of the rooms would still not lead to a shortage of rooms at current prices.

The long winded answer is if WL and Poly rates go up significantly once the hotel rooms are taken off line and replaced with DVC then the occupancy wasn't as bad as reported. If the rates don't change much then the numbers probably really were in the low 60s. Anyone know what Poly cash prices have done since they took the long houses off line for DVC? May be too early to tell since they are doing all that construction and that could artificially deflate demand since people want a pool and don't want to see/hear construction all day.

Now, @GoofGoof this is disney we are talking about.. Prices will always go up. That is a given.

 

[doctornick]

I have an interesting question that I would love @WDW1974 to answer.

Disneyland Resort started its turn around from the same kind of situation (though maybe not as far) as WDW in order to prepare for its 50th Anniversary back in 2005.
Do you think that WDW can or will do the same?

Or perhaps a more generic question: Is there any planning going on for WDW to really celebrate the 50th? You'd think it would be a big milestone and they would want to have a huge blow out makeover for the resort, but will it?

At the pace that Disney tends to go, they'd need to start planning now to be ready for 2021.

 

[GoofGoof]

Now, @GoofGoof this is disney we are talking about.. Prices will always go up. That is a given.

Of course they are always going to go up. I'm talking about an extreme price hike do to a lack of supply from converting hotel rooms to DVC. Bear with me on a few examples:

The Poly currently has around 900 rooms so let's say that 300 are being converted to DVC bringing the inventory down to 600 cash rooms. If the resort has an occupancy rate around 80% currrently then on average 720 rooms are full. If we bring the total down to 600 cash rooms available the demand of 720 (at the current price) exceeds the supply. They would definitely raise rates (probably significantly) to compensate.

In the same example lets say the resort is sitting at an average occupancy of 60%. This means that on average 540 rooms are booked. If you convert 300 rooms to DVC you are down to 600 total. At the current price points supply still exceeds demand. If you raise room rates significantly your total rooms booked will drop and your occupancy rate will suffer again.

I think economically speaking they are looking to bring occupancy rates up to 90%+ without lowering prices or spending billions on park additions.These are general examples using averages. At certain times of the year the rate is probably over 90% and at other times maybe as low as 50%. I think if they decrease the number of rooms we will only see extreme price increases in the times when the demand will exceed supply. Other times of the year may not be impacted as much. Plus the increases may be more a reduction of discounts vs an increase in rack rates. Maybe Poly and WL won't need to participate in free DDP after this conversion or they will stop offering 40%+ CM discounts certain times of the year. That still means more out of pocket for some cash guests, but I think there may still be times when they need to discount to fill the remaining rooms.

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

Of course they are always going to go up. I'm talking about an extreme price hike do to a lack of supply from converting hotel rooms to DVC. Bear with me on a few examples:

The Poly currently has around 900 rooms so let's say that 300 are being converted to DVC bringing the inventory down to 600 cash rooms. If the resort has an occupancy rate around 80% currrently then on average 720 rooms are full. If we bring the total down to 600 cash rooms available the demand of 720 (at the current price) exceeds the supply. They would definitely raise rates (probably significantly) to compensate.

In the same example lets say the resort is sitting at an average occupancy of 60%. This means that on average 540 rooms are booked. If you convert 300 rooms to DVC you are down to 600 total. At the current price points supply still exceeds demand. If you raise room rates significantly your total rooms booked will drop and your occupancy rate will suffer again.

I think economically speaking they are looking to bring occupancy rates up to 90%+ without lowering prices or spending billions on park additions.These are general examples using averages. At certain times of the year the rate is probably over 90% and at other times maybe as low as 50%. I think if they decrease the number of rooms we will only see extreme price increases in the times when the demand will exceed supply. Other times of the year may not be impacted as much. Plus the increases may be more a reduction of discounts vs an increase in rack rates. Maybe Poly and WL won't need to participate in free DDP after this conversion or they will stop offering 40%+ CM discounts certain times of the year. That still means more out of pocket for some cash guests, but I think there may still be times when they need to discount to fill the remaining rooms.

Oh I knew exactly what you were saying, I was just giving you a hard time

 

[PrincessNelly_NJ]

Anyone know what Poly cash prices have done since they took the long houses off line for DVC?

Idk the answer to that, but I did notice Poly prices are going for $273 a night for a standard room in September. Never seen prices that low

The Grand Floridan is going for $311 for garden view and $379 for MK views... maybe Disney is catching a hint.

 

[Quinnmac000]

Or perhaps a more generic question: Is there any planning going on for WDW to really celebrate the 50th? You'd think it would be a big milestone and they would want to have a huge blow out makeover for the resort, but will it?

At the pace that Disney tends to go, they'd need to start planning now to be ready for 2021.

Discount DVC....with a 50% mark up on prices and a 50% decrease in service...How about them great deals!!! The best kept secret at the Happiest Place on Earth!

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Idk the answer to that, but I did notice Poly prices are going for $273 a night for a standard room in September. Never seen prices that low

The Grand Floridan is going for $311 for garden view and $379 for MK views... maybe Disney is catching a hint.

$273/night is a great rate. Still not getting me back as a customer, but maybe it won't run off more "loyal" customers.

 

[roodlesnouter]

Does anyone think the race is on for Disney to convert, and sell, these new DVC units before Uni builds their next hotel(s)? If they manage this they could well take take a large chunk of potential Uni hotel customers away, this could be Disney's thinking anyway.

If they can get 10,000 (as an example) new DVC customers that 10000 customers who would possibly think twice before booking a Uni stay as they already have a room just down the I4.

In other words are Disney finally seeing Uni as a threat and are running scared?

 

[crispy]

Idk the answer to that, but I did notice Poly prices are going for $273 a night for a standard room in September. Never seen prices that low

The Grand Floridan is going for $311 for garden view and $379 for MK views... maybe Disney is catching a hint.

Since the Poly is basically a construction zone, charging $273 per night is still just way too much. After seeing some of the pictures, I can't believe it's actually open right now. It's just a mess.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Does anyone think the race is on for Disney to convert, and sell, these new DVC units before Uni builds their next hotel(s)? If they manage this they could well take take a large chunk of potential Uni hotel customers away, this could be Disney's thinking anyway.

If they can get 10,000 (as an example) new DVC customers that 10000 customers who would possibly think twice before booking a Uni stay as they already have a room just down the I4.

In other words are Disney finally seeing Uni as a threat and are running scared?

No, Disney isn't being proactive. They are flailing embarrassingly. Us Doom and Gloomers have, for a decade, seen this coming based on their unsustainable business model. We have been loudly and proudly waving the big red flag and we were told by the "faithful" that Disney is infallible. They know what they are doing. Well, obviously they don't.
So now the plan, since they have overpriced the rooms to the point the resorts simply can't operate with the current load levels, is to eliminate hotel rooms.
God forbid that attendance level drop at, say, DHS. What will they do? Ply board up half the park?

 

[GLaDOS]

God forbid that attendance level drop at, say, DHS. What will they do? Ply board up half the park?

You mean realy attendance levels, or TEA attendance levels? One of them has already dropped hard.