The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[seascape]

You mean realy attendance levels, or TEA attendance levels? One of them has already dropped hard.

All you doom and gloom here hope Disney attendance drops but the increase in park hours at DHS and AK indicates an increase. As for the real numbers only the revenue numbers reported in the financial statements are what matters. Revenue numbers can't be made up. Universals revenue for the first 6 month of the year were up 9.4% with cash flow up 2.5%, Disney will release their numbers August 5th. Attendance numbers are not released and the only numbers ever made public are TEA's. They are better than anyone else's number on this site and generally accepted by the industry.

 

[wm49rs]

All you doom and gloom here hope Disney attendance drops but the increase in park hours at DHS and AK indicates an increase. As for the real numbers only the revenue numbers reported in the financial statements are what matters. Revenue numbers can't be made up. Universals revenue for the first 6 month of the year were up 9.4% with cash flow up 2.5%, Disney will release their numbers August 5th. Attendance numbers are not released and the only numbers ever made public are TEA's. They are better than anyone else's number on this site and generally accepted by the industry.

No, they don't....

 

[PhotoDave219]

Does anyone think the race is on for Disney to convert, and sell, these new DVC units before Uni builds their next hotel(s)? If they manage this they could well take take a large chunk of potential Uni hotel customers away, this could be Disney's thinking anyway.

If they can get 10,000 (as an example) new DVC customers that 10000 customers who would possibly think twice before booking a Uni stay as they already have a room just down the I4.

In other words are Disney finally seeing Uni as a threat and are running scared?

Nope. Blue ocean Strategy, remember? It's a cash grab.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

All you doom and gloom here hope Disney attendance drops but the increase in park hours at DHS and AK indicates an increase. As for the real numbers only the revenue numbers reported in the financial statements are what matters. Revenue numbers can't be made up. Universals revenue for the first 6 month of the year were up 9.4% with cash flow up 2.5%, Disney will release their numbers August 5th. Attendance numbers are not released and the only numbers ever made public are TEA's. They are better than anyone else's number on this site and generally accepted by the industry.

I would expect Disney's numbers to be up. They just opened WDW's most highly anticipated attraction in 8 years, and the crown jewel of the largest expansion in the MK's history. The MK's numbers should blow the roof of the joint.

They won't.

 

[EpcoTim]

I would expect Disney's numbers to be up. They just opened WDW's most highly anticipated attraction in 8 years, and the crown jewel of the largest expansion in the MK's history. The MK's numbers should blow the roof of the joint.

They won't.

I'm expecting at least a 40% increase in revenue.

 

[KJC]

Does anyone think the race is on for Disney to convert, and sell, these new DVC units before Uni builds their next hotel(s)? If they manage this they could well take take a large chunk of potential Uni hotel customers away, this could be Disney's thinking anyway.

If they can get 10,000 (as an example) new DVC customers that 10000 customers who would possibly think twice before booking a Uni stay as they already have a room just down the I4.

In other words are Disney finally seeing Uni as a threat and are running scared?

I think the Universal vs. Disney battle is among the theme park fans. Both have their own internal goals and motivations which appear to be widely different at this particular time.

It's just odd that Uni happens to be going the 80's/90's Disney route, which is appealing to longtime Disney fans who don't care for the recent direction WDW has gone in. You know. Down.

 

[Cody5242]

Has anyone seen the pictures that people are posting of Four Seasons today? It makes the Grand Floridian look like a 3 star hotel

 

[GoofGoof]

...and right back off topic. Uni is better than Disney. Someone should start a thread about that

 

[GoofGoof]

Idk the answer to that, but I did notice Poly prices are going for $273 a night for a standard room in September. Never seen prices that low

The Grand Floridan is going for $311 for garden view and $379 for MK views... maybe Disney is catching a hint.

Since the Poly is basically a construction zone, charging $273 per night is still just way too much. After seeing some of the pictures, I can't believe it's actually open right now. It's just a mess.

I think the construction is masking what the true prices will be going forward. Poly already took the 300 rooms slated for DVC out of service. When the construction wraps up we'll have to see if they really jack up the prices. This year's holiday season should be really interesting to watch.

 

[GoofGoof]

Has anyone seen the pictures that people are posting of Four Seasons today? It makes the Grand Floridian look like a 3 star hotel

It looks pretty nice. It might help them sell some houses at Golden Oak. There are still a few more plots of land available for further expansion there, but I don't know if that would be another hotel or more retail space.

This is where 445 of the deluxe rooms taken away from Poly and WL for DVC are going. WDW isn't technically losing deluxe rooms they are just shifting to a non-Disney owned property. I assume Disney gets some licensing rights since they are having a character breakfast there and bus service to the parks.

 

[ParentsOf4]

I think the construction is masking what the true prices will be going forward. Poly already took the 300 rooms slated for DVC out of service. When the construction wraps up we'll have to see if they really jack up the prices. This year's holiday season should be really interesting to watch.

Previously, the Poly had 847 rooms. If I've counted correctly, 361 are being converted to DVC, leaving only 486 hotel rooms. At that size, only the Boardwalk Inn (excluding BWV) is smaller.

I suspect we won't see significantly higher rack rates (which already are astronomical). Instead, the fewer rooms should allow Disney to offer fewer discounts at the Poly, effectively increasing Per Room Guest Spending.

The same thing is likely to happen at any hotel that has rooms converted to DVC.

 

[tirian]

Has anyone seen the pictures that people are posting of Four Seasons today? It makes the Grand Floridian look like a 3 star hotel

That's because it is about a 3-1/2 star hotel now. Over the last few years, it has lost the little things that set apart the truly luxurious from the wanna-be hotels, such as turn-down service, chocolates, plush pillow options (real 4-1/2 to 5-star resorts offer a multitude of choices), basic vacuum cleaning, dusting, light bulbs that actually work...

 

[wdwfan22]

That's because it is about a 3-1/2 star hotel now. Over the last few years, it has lost the little things that set apart the truly luxurious from the wanna-be hotels, such as turn-down service, chocolates, plush pillow options (real 4-1/2 to 5-star resorts offer a multitude of choices), basic vacuum cleaning, dusting, light bulbs that actually work...

That's funny I just stayed 2 weeks at the grand and the room would be 4 stars in my book. My room was turned down every night with chocolates and room was as clean as can be. Would be nice to have pillow options without having to come out and ask for it. And everything in the room was working as it should be.

 

[GoofGoof]

Previously, the Poly had 847 rooms. If I've counted correctly, 361 are being converted to DVC, leaving only 486 hotel rooms. At that size, only the Boardwalk Inn (excluding BWV) is smaller.

I suspect we won't see significantly higher rack rates (which already are astronomical). Instead, the fewer rooms should allow Disney to offer fewer discounts at the Poly, effectively increasing Per Room Guest Spending.

The same thing is likely to happen at any hotel that has rooms converted to DVC.

Wow, that's over 40% of the rooms being converted. I have a hard time believing that the Poly had occupency below 60% so I assume we will see a shortage of rooms without significantly higher prices. I agree with your suspicion that Poly will likely offer a lot less discounts most of the year bringing the actual price paid much closer to rack which I agree is ridiculously high. Rack at Poly is almost as high as the new Four Seasons. The silver lining is renting DVC points should be a better option to save some money.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Idk the answer to that, but I did notice Poly prices are going for $273 a night for a standard room in September. Never seen prices that low

Even with 30% off, Disney's site (and Orbitz) still says $300+tax. Where did you see that price?

 

[Lucky]

Previously, the Poly had 847 rooms. If I've counted correctly, 361 are being converted to DVC, leaving only 486 hotel rooms. At that size, only the Boardwalk Inn (excluding BWV) is smaller.

I suspect we won't see significantly higher rack rates (which already are astronomical). Instead, the fewer rooms should allow Disney to offer fewer discounts at the Poly, effectively increasing Per Room Guest Spending.

The same thing is likely to happen at any hotel that has rooms converted to DVC.

But it's not as if those rooms are disappearing when they're converted, in terms of the impact on demand for non-DVC rooms. Surely some DVC buyers would have been guests in regular rooms? They can't be entirely separate markets. That should limit the impact not only on rack rates but on discounting and availability.

 

[GoofGoof]

But it's not as if those rooms are disappearing when they're converted, in terms of the impact on demand for non-DVC rooms. Surely some DVC buyers would have been guests in regular rooms? They can't be entirely separate markets. That should limit the impact not only on rack rates but on discounting and availability.

This is a good point. It goes back to a point brought up by another person 20 pages ago about who is buying into DVC. If the majority of new owners would have stayed at Poly or a deluxe anyway then it's not a large loss in deluxe availability. If however the majority of new buyers are people who stayed off property or at the values/moderates then the demand for cash rooms at Poly will exceed supply. Only Disney knows the actual demographics of DVC owners, but I suspect the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

 

[EpcoTim]

Previously, the Poly had 847 rooms. If I've counted correctly, 361 are being converted to DVC, leaving only 486 hotel rooms. At that size, only the Boardwalk Inn (excluding BWV) is smaller.

I suspect we won't see significantly higher rack rates (which already are astronomical). Instead, the fewer rooms should allow Disney to offer fewer discounts at the Poly, effectively increasing Per Room Guest Spending.

The same thing is likely to happen at any hotel that has rooms converted to DVC.

Not to mention the 'paper' numbers that will improve, accordingly.

 

[ParentsOf4]

But it's not as if those rooms are disappearing when they're converted, in terms of the impact on demand for non-DVC rooms. Surely some DVC buyers would have been guests in regular rooms? They can't be entirely separate markets. That should limit the impact not only on rack rates but on discounting and availability.

DVC purchasers cut across all demographics. The only requirement is that they have sufficient cash on hand or credit to finance their DVC purchases.

Currently, WDW is only actively marketing VGF, yet they have dozens of DVC booths scattered throughout WDW. Realistically, what percentage of guests purchasing VGF DVC at those booths have ever stayed at the Grand Floridian?

Generally, those who purchase DVC directly from Disney are impulse shoppers. Yes, there are many well-educated buyers that post on threads such as these, but that's what makes them well-educated. They don't necessarily represent the 'typical' DVC buyer.

Looking at the larger pool of DVC purchasers, most buy without ever having researched the financials or having stayed at the resort. They are on vacation having fun and got hooked after listening to a sales pitch.

There will be some Poly regulars who will purchase the Poly DVC but that group will represent only a small percentage of all Poly DVC purchases.

Converting Deluxe Resort rooms to DVC works exactly because there is only a small overlap between those staying at the hotel and those deciding to purchase a timeshare.

 

[EpcoTim]

That's funny I just stayed 2 weeks at the grand and the room would be 4 stars in my book. My room was turned down every night with chocolates and room was as clean as can be. Would be nice to have pillow options without having to come out and ask for it. And everything in the room was working as it should be.

What's your cross-reference?