The Spirited 8th Wonder (WDW's Future & You!)

[DisneyGentleman]

I actually wonder if this business model is sustainable.

That's the point - it's not sustainable. DVC is a way of selling-off the resort at a high price point.

 

[DisneyGentleman]

This is one of the reasons I would not buy a timeshare. My perception is that, once the deal is done, DVC has your money and the need to improve is not there.

Last time I stayed in an "improved" OKW room, it was a dump. The "charm" looks like makeup caked on an aging starlet. Once you buy, you are stuck for the long-haul decline.

 

[jt04]

The answer is yes, with an it depends attached. First, DVC retains a small percentage of points at each DVC resort, which makes this, in part, possible. Second, DVC can only use member points when they are exchanged (e.g., Disney Collection, DCL) or unreserved rooms are within a certain window.

The points sold cover almost all of the available rooms 365 days a year. Disney keeps a small percentage of points back when they sell the points. It's mostly for taking rooms offline to do maintenance. If someone trades in their points for a cruise or a stay at a Disney hotel the points go to general reservations to be rented as cash rooms. If a DVC room is not rented by an owner using points it will shift to cash reservations at either the 30 or 60 day point, I can't remember which one. The only way Disney could rent DVC rooms as cash rooms is if Disney kept a portion of the points themselves instead of selling all of them. Then Disney would have to transfer the equivalent of the dues back to the DVC resort. They are run as independent timeshares.

So, I think this can't this be anything but a success short-term or long-term? Certainly guest counts will only continue to climb over time besides the occasional economic contraction.

The global middle class just keeps growing and growing and Orlando will always be a favored destination for many. It is almost impossible to over-build when they have this kind of flexibility with the resorts.

I just do not see the down side. Obviously UCF should be offering a semester on how all this works. Because the more I read the more confusing the complaints seem to me.

If you don't like the plans don't buy them. If you do, then consider it. Let the market decide.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Last time I stayed in an "improved" OKW room, it was a dump. The "charm" looks like makeup caked on an aging starlet. Once you buy, you are stuck for the long-haul decline.

Overall, from studios to 2-bedroom villas, BCV is arguably the most popular WDW DVC resort in the system because of its proximity to Epcot. If you think Disney's Polynesian has a loyal following, you should meet the Beach Club Villa owners.

Somehow, in 2012, I managed to book a last-minute 4-night stay during the 1st week of December. The studio, which did overlook the Dunes Cove pool, was very worn. Moreover, I have stayed in LaQuintas in Daphne, Alabama and Radford, Virginia that were significantly nicer for a fraction of the cost.

When people ask me for DVC recommendations, I always suggest staying at the most recently refurbished (hard or soft goods) resort. Yes, DVC allows me to visit more often and stay at a deluxe property, but, sometimes, the villa condition makes me wish I was paying cash for a room at POFQ.

 

[sWANNISAX]

I feel the same

Last time I stayed in an "improved" OKW room, it was a dump. The "charm" looks like makeup caked on an aging starlet. Once you buy, you are stuck for the long-haul decline.

way about the renovated rooms. I don't mind the floors but if you move furniture it all you can see they aren't holding up well. The improved counters are nice but the painting of the kitchen table was a truly bad idea. Lots of scratches and poor maintenance. Two weeks ago I stayed at OKW at the shelf under the mirror in the hall was obviously moved but no one bothered to fill or repaint the old holes. really tacky.

 

[ParentsOf4]

My WDWMagic account is less than 24 hours old and I am going to make a comment that often gets me burned on the DISboards. There must be a WDW DVC saturation point.

Currently, there are 12 resorts in the DVC system, 8 of which are located at WDW. Excluding DVC Poly estimates, the maximum number of villas presently available at WDW is 4,359. The DVC attitude seems to be expansion always in all ways at WDW. Eventually, the if you build it, they will buy philosophy will no longer hold true.

DVC can easily convert thousands of rooms at WDW, resulting in millions of points available for sale. However, at some point, the desirability may no longer be there.

Discussing a "DVC saturation point" won't get you burned here. Opinions of DVC on WDWMagic.com are decidedly mixed.

DVC is not yet at its saturation point. The Orlando market should be able to support about 1-to-2 million DVC points per year for the next several years.

That corresponds to roughly 300 Deluxe Resort rooms per year or about 100 DVC units (which are counted as 2-bedroom equivalents).

The VGF should sell out next year, to be immediately followed by the Poly DVC which probably will sell out by the end of 2016.

The Wilderness Lodge has 720 rooms. Assuming half those are converted to DVC, that will take WDW well into 2018.

Beyond that, all bets are off. Corporate Disney will need to continue to monitor the market to watch for trends.

Stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, continued conversions of existing Deluxe Resort rooms into DVC means that, unlike Universal, corporate Disney has no 'big plans' to grow WDW for the foreseeable future.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

I regularly encourage prospective DVC homeowners to walk the hallways of BCV. Be sure to look up, around and down. The extensive carpet staining, scuffed walls, number of lightbulbs in need of replacement, dust and amount of sheetrock that has been removed will astound you.

Loyalists will tell you that BCV has a worn, grandmother's beach cottage charm.

 

[crispy]

I regularly encourage prospective DVC homeowners to walk the hallways of BCV. Be sure to look up, around and down. The extensive carpet staining, scuffed walls, number of lightbulbs in need of replacement, dust and amount of sheetrock that has been removed will astound you.

Loyalists will tell you that BCV has a worn, grandmother's beach cottage charm.

That's the kind of attitude that makes me want to bang my head against the wall. It's no wonder TDO makes the decisions they do - they have thousands of people who will make excuses for them and still throw money at them. I wish some people had a little more self-respect.

 

[GoofGoof]

I regularly encourage prospective DVC homeowners to walk the hallways of BCV. Be sure to look up, around and down. The extensive carpet staining, scuffed walls, number of lightbulbs in need of replacement, dust and amount of sheetrock that has been removed will astound you.

Loyalists will tell you that BCV has a worn, grandmother's beach cottage charm.

From what I understand BCV is about due for a major refurb based on age. It's no different with the cash resorts. Poly was getting pretty worn before the room refurbs and we've heard a lot of recent complaints about CBR. People are animals. I have no idea how some of the damage that is done gets there. That being said, there is no excuse for things like burned out light bulbs and dust.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

That's the kind of attitude that makes me want to bang my head against the wall. It's no wonder TDO makes the decisions they do - they have thousands of people who will make excuses for them and still throw money at them. I wish some people had a little more self-respect.

Saying this on a DVC discussion board angers owners. People will say things like, "different strokes for different folks," "we've never had a problem," and "that's why there are so many DVC resorts, to accommodate a variety of tastes."

Do not even look in the rooms, just walk the hallways and common areas. Members seem to have a tendency to overlook what they see. I am not sure if this is because of a need to justify one's DVC purchase or pledge allegiance to Disney.

Please know that my main issue with DVC expansion is that the resorts are not maintained to Disney's pre-established standard.

 

[Funmeister]

The problem is once these rooms are converted and additional DVC resorts built, the parks will not have enough fresh content to support the resorts alone. They truly are building them to try to support Central Florida and not WDW property. Bad move. Really bad move.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

From what I understand BCV is about due for a major refurb based on age. It's no different with the cash resorts. Poly was getting pretty worn before the room refurbs and we've heard a lot of recent complaints about CBR. People are animals. I have no idea how some of the damage that is done gets there. That being said, there is no excuse for things like burned out light bulbs and dust.

I think the BCV hard goods refurbishment is still a year or two out. VWL opened in November 2000 and its hard goods refurbishment was just completed this spring. BCV opened in July 2002. If the BCV refurbishment is scheduled for next year, then we should hear about it during the December association meeting.

 

[wdisney9000]

Since 1971. I would say Disney Springs is the latest cool new thing guests have "rewarded" with. Before that, 4 theme parks, 2 water parks, numerous resorts and recreation opportunities. Stuff like that.

How exactly is it a reward? They are rewarding us with more places to shop and eat? Not saying it wont be an enjoyable place, but lets be honest, the motive is always profits. A true "reward" would be along the lines of a big discount on resort prices for repeat visitors. 30% off of an insanely bloated $500 rack rate isnt a discount either, so dont try and mention that. Is WL DVC plans a reward as well, or again, is it more motivated by short term gains and "rewards" for the executives, and not the guests? But hey, its a teepee, they really care about us!

 

[Mike S]

How exactly is it a reward? They are rewarding us with more places to shop and eat? Not saying it wont be an enjoyable place, but lets be honest, the motive is always profits. A true "reward" would be along the lines of a big discount on resort prices for repeat visitors. 30% off of an insanely bloated $500 rack rate isnt a discount either, so dont try and mention that. Is WL DVC plans a reward as well, or again, is it more motivated by short term gains and "rewards" for the executives, and not the guests? But hey, its a teepee, they really care about us!

Ignore is your friend.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

People are animals. I have no idea how some of the damage that is done gets there. That being said, there is no excuse for things like burned out light bulbs and dust.

We always treat our villas with the utmost respect and leave them better than we find them. Upon checking in and opening our villa door, we have vacuumed crumbs and broken blue crayons, picked up trash that was left by previous guests and missed by housekeeping, and properly repositioned furniture that had been rearranged.

I stayed at VGF in December 2013, less than 2 months after its opening, in villa 1404. Adjacent to the bistro table was a 1.5' - 2' in diameter carpet stain. Based on color, it looked like hot chocolate - the entire amount in someone's resort refillable mug. I realize accidents happen, but I have never damaged the fixtures or furnishings of a hotel room.

Although this might sound petty to some, it's similar to the first significant parking lot door dent in your new car.

 

[GoofGoof]

The problem is once these rooms are converted and additional DVC resorts built, the parks will not have enough fresh content to support the resorts alone. They truly are building them to try to support Central Florida and not WDW property. Bad move. Really bad move.

I agree. They still need to focus on the parks and keep things fresh and clean. Not everyone visiting their parks is a DVC owner or a potential owner. Even if every on property room was converted to DVC the numbers would still only be half of park guests or less.

Here's how I see the high level demographics of WDW guests:

1. Locals - mostly not staying overnight and AP holders
2. Convention and business travelers
3. Once in a while or once in a lifetime tourist visitors
4. Regular WDW visitors (visit once a year or every other year)

DVC's primary focus is to take guests in category 4 and convert them to owners. A secondary focus is to get some guests in category 3 to make an impulse buy and become members (converting them to category 4). The vast majority of guests in category 3 are not the focus of DVC sales. DVC largely ignores categories 1 and 2. I don't have any stats, but my educated guess is category 4 is less than 25% of total WDW visitors. The vast majority of posters here are probably in category 4. It's because of this that I don't think we will ever get to the point that Disney completely ignores the parks because DVC owners are locked in. While DVC is lucrative they still want owners spending money at WDW so they still need to keep it fresh for them too.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Interesting suggestions. But here is an idea for an on-site perk I haven't seen anyone suggest before- widen the FP+ return window. I realize that there may be operations issues with this, but this is something I would personally find very compelling, because what I dislike the most about FP now is the touring regimentation required by enforcing the end of the return window.

I actually intended to put that as one of the bullet points, glad to know that I'm not alone in thinking this has value. Personally I'd like to see them have wider windows for attractions where FP demand is lower (Pirates, Spaceship Earth, etc). Keep the likes of Soarin and Toy Story at an hour. Put mid range demand attractions like Thunder Mountain at 2 hours and put lower demand FP attractions like Pirates and SSE at 3 hours.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Here's how I see the high level demographics of WDW guests:

1. Locals - mostly not staying overnight and AP holders

Last year, Florida ranked first or second as the state with the most DVC members. Although I do not know the percentage of points owned by Florida members (perhaps locals require fewer points), the state is a leader in its number of members.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Discussing a "DVC saturation point" won't get you burned here. Opinions of DVC on WDWMagic.com are decidedly mixed.

Stepping back and looking at the bigger picture, continued conversions of existing Deluxe Resort rooms into DVC means that, unlike Universal, corporate Disney has no 'big plans' to grow WDW for the foreseeable future.

Thanks, I do appreciate the opportunity to openly discuss my DVC experiences and thoughts without having to worry about significant backlash.

Regarding the bigger picture, this, too, is my concern. I would welcome exponential DVC expansion if the Walt Disney World Resort's growth was comparable.

 

[marni1971]

Since 1971. I would say Disney Springs is the latest cool new thing guests have "rewarded" with. Before that, 4 theme parks, 2 water parks, numerous resorts and recreation opportunities. Stuff like that.

That is an excuse defending TDO - and Burbank- that management just love.

Springs is a jazzed up shopping mall. Where there used to be a shopping mall. I'm sure it'll be pretty just like my local mega mall, but just like my local mega mall it is just a shopping mall.

This to correct a mistake they made in the first place when they were trying to correct another mistake they made themselves when nothing needed fixing to begin with.

I'm coming 4000 miles. I want to ride exciting new rides and have amazing new experiences.

Shopping malls aren't one of them.

If a mall and Avland is all you have to be excited about then WDW is in worst shape than I thought. With respect.