BTIG (which is a four letter word among the foamers who post in the Seeking Alpha comments sections in $DIS articles) did research that said only 44% are willing to pay $8 for ESPN & ESPN 2. And only 6% will pay $20 (which means most of the sports fans aren't willing to make up the difference). If true, that is big. The 38% who will pay $8 but not $20 are people who watch now but will STOP WATCHING IN THE FUTURE (which if happens will hit advertising big). It's not just less subs. It's less eyeballs as well. Your biggest piece of your biggest division is looking at a potential margin compression, and from it's most dependable revenue source, the subs (money that comes in just for merely existing, like a bond coupon). And this is from a company that still so many think that margins will continue to grow forever. Right now $DIS, even down as much as it is, equals froth. The BTIG research tells the absolute opposite story then the mantra that keeps being repeated over and over that 'People will pay any amount for live sports'.
If the contracts with current cable prevents true over the top ESPN mass delivery w/o blowing up the bundle for good, they are going to have to really thread the needle to find the *EXACT* time to the millisecond to switch over to minimize loss. All the while content costs will rise and your still competing with other outlets who have cheaper content costs. The college football on FoxSports1 or Big 10 network or over the air network TV may not be as good as the ESPN offerings, but many may settle if it's much cheaper. Outside of College Football, isn't the most desired content elsewhere? (In baseball isn't the most valuable content, by far, on the YES network for Yankee games?).
Star Wars will not erase this. Consumer Products will not erase this.