The Spirited 11th Hour ...

[indyumd]

There wasn't one reputable voice that thought Star Wars would legitimately hit $3B.

 

[Tigger1988]

Did Star Wars beat Avatar WW and Hit 3 Billion? It underperformed on that metric.

Reaching, you're doing it.

 

[xdan0920]

Did Star Wars beat Avatar WW and Hit 3 Billion? It underperformed on that metric.

Love it. Hold your ground no matter how ridiculous that ground happens to be.

 

[Rodan75]

In Dec 1998 a barrel of oil was 16.28 and from there a barrel of oil had risen to an all time high in June 2008 to 144.78 per barrel and has slid down to today's price on Feb 2016 at 27.18 per barrel. Now I don't want anyone to loose there job, but I personally find these fuel prices rather refreshing.
How many week's/year's I was paying anywhere from 2.75 to 4.30 per gallon. And every time there is a chance of bad weather, disruption in production or what ever , the price of a barrel of oil sky rocketed and slllooowwwllyy came down. And I even own some oil stock's. I think there is a happy medium in pricing but for right now I am taking my saving's (today I paid 1.26 per gallon) and investing my saving's. Personally I think a barrel of oil was just pushed up to a high price artificially but who knows.

I don't disagree. But I was responding to what negative impact lower gas prices have on the economy, not whether that was a good or bad thing.

 

[twebber55]

There wasn't one reputable voice that thought Star Wars would legitimately hit $3B.

many people said that it would
not that i care one way or the other
both are incredible successes

 

[Cesar R M]

Weren't you the one trying to tell us TFA was going to underperform? I feel like you post this same stuff for every Disney/Marvel film.

technically, the expected performance was beating avatar..
And since its losing its legs already in the worldwide market... (compared to Avatar)..
We will have to see.
I still think it will be a cash cow. earning records on dvd and blurays sales too.

 

[Cesar R M]

And in other news
Star Wars prosecuted over Harrison Ford injury
"The Health And Safety Executive has brought four criminal charges against Foodles Production (UK) Ltd - a subsidiary of Disney."

That sounds like a politic stunt...

 

[DisneyRoy]

I wouldn't so cocky with Disney box office this year. Domestically they will do fine but internationally it may be a problem. Warner Bros and Fox are being heavy hitters already making films based off Nostaglia like Independece Day, Ghostbusters, and all the other superhero films. Thanks to Wanda (AMC owners and the chinese company) merging with Legendary Universal has an even bigger upper hand when it comes to Warcraft and the other legendary films coming out this year.

Zootopia is safe as its the only mainstream kids movie for the next 14 days. The only other kid film that comes out that week is the beast and a boy but that's more a indie film and the kids film after it is the Little Prince by Paramount.

The Jungle Book is in a bad spot to be honest. It's between The Boss which comes out the week before and Barbershop 3. The Jungle Book may be Disney and such however due to the lack of animation may leave kids less desirable to go see that and more adults and teens to go so other films such as The Boss and more minority based crowds will go to Barber Shop 3. I also think the huge surprise may also go to the film Hardcore Henry with the gimmick of being the 1st POV mainstream action film and may have a paranormal activity size crowd and word of mouth that will pull from the jungle book.

Born in China is a documentary about Pandas. I doubt it will be successful against The Huntsman: Winter's War.

Captain America: Civil War is completely safe with no competition from the weak before or the week after. The only film it has going up against it is Going in Style.

Alice through the looking glass will flop and probably flop hard as it is up against X-men:apocalypse, Angry Birds from the week before, and Neighbors 2 from the week before and likely won't gain traction as summer blockbuster season starts the following week.

Finding Dory may do great in first week but expect to see a drop come second week with Warcraft coming out. With the Chinese company Wanda funding that, don't be surprised. The nerds will come. Then its another disney film with the BFG coming out in the third week

BFG should be okay as long as Finding dory doesn't pull from its numbers but it is also 4th of July weekend. However with huge teen/adult films coming out such Independence Day: Resurgence, The Purge:Election Year, and the Legend of Tarzan may pull people from seeing it and the Secret Life of Pets comes a week after BFG comes out.

Pete's Dragon is a weird one because there is not information about it to predict hit/flop

Doctor Strange is a weird one but it is up against Dreamworks Trolls which will pull some families.

Moana is in the worst of all movie situations. It will be this year's the good dinosaur as You have Fantastic Beasts come out the weekend before, The Great Wall which is Universal/China's hollywood pet project and Bad Santa 2. Internationally Fantastic beasts will surpass Moana mostly because its Harry Potter.

Rogue Ones is Star Wars so it will do well.

Finding Dory will do great. It's a classic film that people love. I think you are giving WAAAAY to much credit for Warcraft. I predict ultimate flop category for that one. It looks terrible!

 

[BrianLo]

I wouldn't so cocky with Disney box office this year. Domestically they will do fine but internationally it may be a problem. Warner Bros and Fox are being heavy hitters already making films based off Nostaglia like Independece Day, Ghostbusters, and all the other superhero films. Thanks to Wanda (AMC owners and the chinese company) merging with Legendary Universal has an even bigger upper hand when it comes to Warcraft and the other legendary films coming out this year.

Zootopia is safe as its the only mainstream kids movie for the next 14 days. The only other kid film that comes out that week is the beast and a boy but that's more a indie film and the kids film after it is the Little Prince by Paramount.

The Jungle Book is in a bad spot to be honest. It's between The Boss which comes out the week before and Barbershop 3. The Jungle Book may be Disney and such however due to the lack of animation may leave kids less desirable to go see that and more adults and teens to go so other films such as The Boss and more minority based crowds will go to Barber Shop 3. I also think the huge surprise may also go to the film Hardcore Henry with the gimmick of being the 1st POV mainstream action film and may have a paranormal activity size crowd and word of mouth that will pull from the jungle book.

Born in China is a documentary about Pandas. I doubt it will be successful against The Huntsman: Winter's War.

Captain America: Civil War is completely safe with no competition from the weak before or the week after. The only film it has going up against it is Going in Style.

Alice through the looking glass will flop and probably flop hard as it is up against X-men:apocalypse, Angry Birds from the week before, and Neighbors 2 from the week before and likely won't gain traction as summer blockbuster season starts the following week.

Finding Dory may do great in first week but expect to see a drop come second week with Warcraft coming out. With the Chinese company Wanda funding that, don't be surprised. The nerds will come. Then its another disney film with the BFG coming out in the third week

BFG should be okay as long as Finding dory doesn't pull from its numbers but it is also 4th of July weekend. However with huge teen/adult films coming out such Independence Day: Resurgence, The Purge:Election Year, and the Legend of Tarzan may pull people from seeing it and the Secret Life of Pets comes a week after BFG comes out.

Pete's Dragon is a weird one because there is not information about it to predict hit/flop

Doctor Strange is a weird one but it is up against Dreamworks Trolls which will pull some families.

Moana is in the worst of all movie situations. It will be this year's the good dinosaur as You have Fantastic Beasts come out the weekend before, The Great Wall which is Universal/China's hollywood pet project and Bad Santa 2. Internationally Fantastic beasts will surpass Moana mostly because its Harry Potter.

Rogue Ones is Star Wars so it will do well.

You put way too much credence in other films coming around the same time (and honestly half the ones you've dredged up are laughable). If we've not learned anything recently, counter-programming works. A good movie can shine, even when it releases under another's long shadow.

Inside Out had no problems making money under the meteoric performance that was Jurassic World after all.

But then again, I was only referring to Domestic and my comments on the matter have already been documented.

Fox though looks like it was have quite the strong year, I totally agree with that. Plus, Deadpool was fantastic!

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Meanwhile at Disneyland,

Photo credit: Dateline Disneyland

 

[coolbeans14]

That sounds like a politic stunt...

It's seems like a weird thing for the UK to do, especially considering how pro-film production this government is. I mean so much so they let a production company blow up a bus in central London last week (which didn't exactly go down to well)

 

[ford91exploder]

The market seems to work just like how the media builds up celebrities, they reach a peak, and then they come crashing down. Disney's stock performance has been just that, completely irrational as you noted. We have these analysts, or what I consider to be glorified Vegas gamblers, harping on the growing pressures within ESPN, yet ignoring the fact that the company has diversified so greatly over the past few years that ESPN's lower profit should be absorbed and then some because of the acquisitions. While many of us find fault with the current business model at the parks, make no mistake about it, Iger has done an excellent job of diversifying the company and setting it up for long-term strength.

Eh Wot?, Diversifying???, Long term strength!!!!! All Disney has is P&R, Consumer Products (cheap ones at that) and media production with no distribution other than through competitors in the same space. Stock Buybacks propping up EPS is not building long term strength and it uses P&R and ESPN as ATM's to fund stock buybacks not reinvestment in core businesses.

 

[ford91exploder]

Why did you leave out the important conclusion on that Iger subject...



It's less about Iger being a stiff.. and more about who is in the circle and who is not..

But he'll never make it INTO the circle BECAUSE he's a stiff, Mark Cuban yes I KNOW he's anything but a Stiff but personality is what got him into the NBA owners circle having money is not enough.

Look at the Parking Lot King Frank McCourt he bought into the Dodgers because Rupert Murdoch needed fast cash, After that MLB could not toss him out fast enough it took only 8 years or so.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Eh Wot?, Diversifying???, Long term strength!!!!! All Disney has is P&R, Consumer Products (cheap ones at that) and media production with no distribution other than through competitors in the same space. Stock Buybacks propping up EPS is not building long term strength and it uses P&R and ESPN as ATM's to fund stock buybacks not reinvestment in core businesses.

Stock buybacks aren't short-term "props" to EPS. They're permanent. When those shares come out of the market, they're out in perpetuity. The change to the divisor of the EPS model is permanent.

 

[flynnibus]

Stock buybacks aren't short-term "props" to EPS. They're permanent. When those shares come out of the market, they're out in perpetuity. The change to the divisor of the EPS model is permanent.

While the stock itself may be retired.. that's not the point. You are so fixated on defending something you're not even reading his rant. The point was about strictly financial moves vs actual company advances or strength.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

While the stock itself may be retired.. that's not the point. You are so fixated on defending something you're not even reading his rant. The point was about strictly financial moves vs actual company advances or strength.

I understand his point. Stock buybacks are a sign of strength.

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonv...buybacks-are-a-sign-of-a-healthy-company.html

 

[rael ramone]

Stock buybacks aren't short-term "props" to EPS. They're permanent. When those shares come out of the market, they're out in perpetuity. The change to the divisor of the EPS model is permanent.

But that is done with cash that could be used to grow the business, repair infrastructure, reduce leverage, increase the dividend, pay a living wage to CMs.... and not necessarily at the best price when prices could be cheaper... much cheaper... later...

Of course they can always 'get the buyback cash back' by reissueing them back into the market, but the Street will punish any blue chip that dares dilute the shareholders.

 

[flynnibus]

I understand his point. Stock buybacks are a sign of strength.

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonv...buybacks-are-a-sign-of-a-healthy-company.html

Wow.. you found a google link that supports your thought? FACINATING

I'll be sure to add the Jacksonville print edition of American City Business Journals to my fav reading lists...

 

[CaptainAmerica]

But that is done with cash that could be used to grow the business, repair infrastructure, reduce leverage, increase the dividend, pay a living wage to CMs.... and not necessarily at the best price when prices could be cheaper... much cheaper... later...

Of course they can always 'get the buyback cash back' by reissueing them back into the market, but the Street will punish any blue chip that dares dilute the shareholders.

Wow.. you found a google link that supports your thought? FACINATING

You guys are something else. Not only do you act like you know more about corporate finance than the collective knowledge of all the Harvard and Wharton MBAs on Wall Street, you also have more inside information about The Walt Disney Company than the entire body of executives and board of directors combined.

Question: Based on your expertise, why aren't you rolling in millions and billions of dollars?

I am NOT professing to be an expert. Rather, I'm deferring to the fact that the actual experts usually know that they're talking about.

 

[Rodan75]

Stock buybacks aren't short-term "props" to EPS. They're permanent. When those shares come out of the market, they're out in perpetuity. The change to the divisor of the EPS model is permanent.

Unfortunately, that isn't always true. Normally those shares go toward stock based incentive compensation, or are banked with dividends going back into company coffers and then potentially for use for stock-based acquisitions. Sometimes they are retired, but that is a separate process beyond just buying them back.