The Spirit Takes the Fifth ...

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nytimez

Well-Known Member
I know this is a common theory online, and I don't doubt TDO believed it at the time, but again, I think the roots of today's issues--which are exacerbated by WWoHP but would've existed anyway--was the belief you could shuffle crowds with FastPass rather than build new attractions. The Boy Who Lived is a good straw man, but WDW would be in trouble even if Universal went bankrupt 5 years ago. They overbuilt hotels, underbuilt attractions.

I don't disagree, but Potter is not a straw man and the trouble Disney would face without it is nothing like what it is facing now.

Yes, they have overbuilt hotels and underbuilt attractions at WDW. But Potter creates competition for vacation time (and dollars) that Disney has never had before in O-Town. While there have always been other parks and places or Orlando hoping to siphon off a little Disney time, there has never before existed a competitor with this combination of quality, name recognition and fan base.

I guess in many ways this is Disney's perfect storm.

Uni isn't the only competition and Disney doesn't need to keep people away from uni to gain from this type of planning. In fact it's not even just about on property or not.

Sure they do. Uni has taken people who generally come to do Disney and only Disney and stolen a day of that trip. Now they're aiming to get a second and even third day. And they will get it. Those days will in many cases come at the expense of Disney.

People have a finite amount of vacation time. Uni is not the only competition but it's the main competition - and, worse for Disney, it's a gateway drug. Once lured to Uni, people who had always done Disney and only Disney are now starting to rent cars and do all kinds of other stuff, too.

Especially those DVCers that Disney once assumed would be its most loyal parkgoers.
 

Funmeister

Well-Known Member
Uni isn't the only competition and Disney doesn't need to keep people away from uni to gain from this type of planning. In fact it's not even just about on property or not.

The business model of the Walt Disney World Resort solely relies on keeping people on property. It does not have any flexibility for people staying on WDW property but not visiting WDW attractions. The thought of DVC guests utilizing DVC but going off-property has Disney scrambling. Unfortunately the Disney solution is to have guests pre-book and pre-plan everything. People want to pre-plan from their DVC but it is for attractions down I-4.

Disney never anticipated DVC guests leaving property to go to other attractions.
 

Longhairbear

Well-Known Member
The business model of the Walt Disney World Resort solely relies on keeping people on property. It does not have any flexibility for people staying on WDW property but not visiting WDW attractions. The thought of DVC guests utilizing DVC but going off-property has Disney scrambling. Unfortunately the Disney solution is to have guests pre-book and pre-plan everything. People want to pre-plan from their DVC but it is for attractions down I-4.

Disney never anticipated DVC guests leaving property to go to other attractions.
That's our plan, sleep in a DVC, get a car and go places. Car rental companies should get wise, and offer discounts to DVC members. The grocers got wise, and deliver groceries to a lot of we members who can't get ADR's at anyplace anymore at WDW. We cook in our DVC kitchens.
 

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
That's our plan, sleep in a DVC, get a car and go places. Car rental companies should get wise, and offer discounts to DVC members. The grocers got wise, and deliver groceries to a lot of we members who can't get ADR's at anyplace anymore at WDW. We cook in our DVC kitchens.
Perhaps if Disney treated DVC members like the best customers they are instead of taking them for granted they would see a bit more of their cash
 

Darth Sidious

Authentically Disney Distinctly Chinese
Almost as exciting as FastPass+ for offsite guests at DAK. :banghead:

"Gee, I can stand in line for a FastPass+ kiosk just so I can get a Fast Pass for It's Tough to Be a Bug or I can save my money and head to Universal for the most exciting new addition to an Orlando theme park since, well, since the opening of Wizzarding World of Harry Potter in 2010."

"Gee, what should do?" :rolleyes:

Which one do you think will boost revenue and profits more?

Who are these people running Disney? Do they have a clue?

Oh right. They're the same executives that OK'ed John Carter.

I hate their tent pole strategy. They should make some better films on a tighter budget. I'd like to see them win an academy award for best picture in the next decade, but Saving Mr. Banks will probably be the closest they come.

I have some comments to write up about Bob Iger and Tom Staggs. Nothing bad or insider just a few quotes from Michael's book that I'd like to share. It's interesting in my opinion to see a glimpse of their earlier and non public side.
 
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71jason

Well-Known Member
MyMagic+ was the attempt to do theme parks completely differently. A more personalized experience custom tailored to one's preferences.

I'm sure in TWDC's collective executive mind this is the case. But ultimately the important parts of MM+ are just a slight reworking of the existing FP, designed to gain a larger share of the existing theme park customer base, or at least a larger share of their wallets. It's pure "red ocean," no matter how often "blue ocean" may get tossed around at higher level meetings. TWDC execs don't understand their own buzzword.

Which is a shame, because DCL truly was "blue ocean" (no pun intended). It should be the go-to case study in B-school. Why not let the people who developed that have a crack at the theme parks? Or at least look at their notes?
 

71jason

Well-Known Member
I don't disagree, but Potter is not a straw man and the trouble Disney would face without it is nothing like what it is facing now.

Yes, they have overbuilt hotels and underbuilt attractions at WDW. But Potter creates competition for vacation time (and dollars) that Disney has never had before in O-Town. While there have always been other parks and places or Orlando hoping to siphon off a little Disney time, there has never before existed a competitor with this combination of quality, name recognition and fan base.

I guess in many ways this is Disney's perfect storm.

I'm with you on it being a perfect storm. And no doubt Universal is pulling away a lot of people (Transformers and the Minions play a nice supporting role to Potter). So as I said, Universal exacerbates the issue. My only point was even if there was no WWoHP, WDW would be facing the same issues today, albeit on a lesser scale, with people going to D.C., the beach, Kings Dominion ... But agreed a strong, getting stronger, Universal, is their #1 threat right now.
 

scout68

Well-Known Member
Star Wars is a "stale" franchise?

What numbers you have to back that up with?


Found these nuggets on
http://www.forbes.com/2007/05/24/star-wars-revenues-tech-cx_ag_0524money.html


"Thanks to the incredible longevity of the Star Wars brand, kids today are nearly as hungry for plastic light sabers and X-wing flight simulators as they were in the 1980s. According to John Singh, a spokesman for Lucasfilm, Star Wars merchandise and videogames earned $1.5 billion in revenue last year, more than other high-profile movie franchises, including Superman, Spider-Man and Pirates of the Caribbean."

and this:
Star Wars Total Franchise Revenue
Share This
star-wars-185x185.jpg

Statistic Verification
Source: Forbes, Lucasfilms
Research Date: 12.9.2013
Star Wars is an American epic space opera franchise centered on a film series created by George Lucas. The first film in the series was originally released on May 25, 1977, under the title Star Wars, by 20th Century Fox, and became a worldwide pop culture phenomenon, followed by two sequels. Sixteen years after the release of the trilogy’s final film, the first in a new prequel trilogy of films was released. In October 2012, The Walt Disney Company acquired Lucasfilm for $4.05 billion and announced that it would produce three new films, with the first film, Star Wars Episode VII, planned for release in 2015.
star-wars-sales.jpg

Total Star Wars Franchise Revenue$27,000,000,000
MoviesRevenue

Star Wars : Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace $924,317,558
Star Wars : Episode 2 – Attack of the Clones $649,398,328
Star Wars : Episode 3 – Revenge of the Sith $848,754,768
Star Wars : Episode 4 – A New Hope $775,398,007
Star Wars : Episode 5 – Empire Strikes Back $538,375,067
Star Wars : Episode 6 – Return of the Jedi $475,106,177
Star Wars : The Clone Wars $68,282,844
Total Box Office Revenue $4,277,000,000
DVD

DVD Sales $2,900,000,000
DVD Rentals $875,000,000
Toys
Kenner (1978-1985) 90 Figures / 300 Million Sold 3,850,000,000
Hasbro (1995-2011) 15 Collections 5,537,000,000
Other Collectables 2,720,000,000
Books
358 Published Titles / 76 Different Authors$1,820,000,000
Video Games
130 Games Released $2,900.000,000
Other Sources

Licensing$625,000,000
Television / 4 Seasons of Clone Wars$4,500,000
Merchandise$675,000,000
Related Star Wars StatisticsData
George Lucas’ Net Worth$3.6 Billion
Random House sales from the first book release of Star Wars$200 Million
Revenue last year from games and toys$1.5 Billion
Tags:


yeah, stale.
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
I don't disagree, but Potter is not a straw man and the trouble Disney would face without it is nothing like what it is facing now.

Yes, they have overbuilt hotels and underbuilt attractions at WDW. But Potter creates competition for vacation time (and dollars) that Disney has never had before in O-Town. While there have always been other parks and places or Orlando hoping to siphon off a little Disney time, there has never before existed a competitor with this combination of quality, name recognition and fan base.

I guess in many ways this is Disney's perfect storm.



Sure they do. Uni has taken people who generally come to do Disney and only Disney and stolen a day of that trip. Now they're aiming to get a second and even third day. And they will get it. Those days will in many cases come at the expense of Disney.

People have a finite amount of vacation time. Uni is not the only competition but it's the main competition - and, worse for Disney, it's a gateway drug. Once lured to Uni, people who had always done Disney and only Disney are now starting to rent cars and do all kinds of other stuff, too.

Especially those DVCers that Disney once assumed would be its most loyal parkgoers.
Gosh, I feel like a pioneer. Here it is 30 years after my first visit and people are starting to do exactly what I always have done since day one. My first visit included side trips to Kennedy Space Center and Silver Springs that was in 1983. My second included trips to Sea World and Cypress Gardens and Tampa. And so on, year after year including one year an overnight to Key West. Primary location was WDW, but, I loved exploring Central Florida and always, always had other things on my agenda. Even when I stayed on site, at least one, maybe two days were spent elsewhere. Don't get me wrong, I love WDW, but, my interests aren't just WDW. I have gone to Uni many times, even in the dark years when everyone thought it was an awful place. I enjoyed it. Didn't go as often, but, it was always on my list for consideration. Now...it's more of a priority and my anticipation is higher when going there then to WDW. Possibly because WDW, to me, is a been there, done that, but, it no longer also includes must do again.
 
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Funmeister

Well-Known Member
The key is night stays. The 10,000+ additional hotel rooms planned at Universal is what should scare Disney more than the new attractions. The attractions are there to justify the rooms. That is where the real money is made. Once Disney sees the average number of night stays beginning to dip then they will probably react. Unfortunately at that point it will be too late. They will have already given up market share that they will not get back. Once guests start splitting stays or giving Universal night stays they will not never be exclusive to Disney again. Especially when Universal is/has stepped up the quality of the overall experience resort wide.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
The business model of the Walt Disney World Resort solely relies on keeping people on property. It does not have any flexibility for people staying on WDW property but not visiting WDW attractions.

Sure they do. Uni has taken people who generally come to do Disney and only Disney and stolen a day of that trip. Now they're aiming to get a second and even third day. And they will get it. Those days will in many cases come at the expense of Disney.

In response to both of you... for this type of 'planning leads to more lock-in' - it does not mean you need 100% lock-in for the model to work and improve things. I point you back to the quote again

They are also exposed in the planning process to a lot of products that they don't know exist and a lot of things that, when they see it, they say[...]

Like I said, this isn't just about people leaving property - but gives Disney a way of marketing their offerings. Play it real simple for illustration purposes... User is lured to site with "I heard you can make an appointment with Mickey instead of waiting in line!!"... they get there.. and now see some offering they never knew existed before.. lets say.. they learn about the Luau and now are lured into making a reservation for that. In doing so, Disney has marketed a property to the targeted audience and in doing so upsold and locked in the customer for more time.

The idea of having all the customers doing this pre-planning gives Disney a powerful funnel all the potential customers go through.. and hence becomes an extremely powerful advertising and marketing tool where they can promote offerings guests may not have been exposed to, or influence what people may chose. It's a tactic used time and time again through so many sales channels... and by having this funnel the customers go through, it's "prime time" when it comes to exposure/eyeballs. That's part of the value - that can be converted into real dollars.

And my point about UNI is... Disney doesn't have to win 100% of the customer's time to be successful. Of course they'd like to keep people on property all the time... But ANY time that Disney locks in through pre-planning is a win - they don't have to lock in 100% of the time for there to be a benefit to the methodology. If a guest was thinking about maybe spending the last 3 days of their trip 'adhoc' and deciding where to go.. and Disney successfully reclaims one of those three days by scheduling something on property = WIN. They gained one of three they were standing to lose... it's not a 'all or nothing' situation.

Yes there is a slippery slope of once people get offsite, etc... but that doesn't mean the days Disney locked in are lost.. it's just less than optimal.
 

Funmeister

Well-Known Member
In response to both of you... for this type of 'planning leads to more lock-in' - it does not mean you need 100% lock-in for the model to work and improve things. I point you back to the quote again



Like I said, this isn't just about people leaving property - but gives Disney a way of marketing their offerings. Play it real simple for illustration purposes... User is lured to site with "I heard you can make an appointment with Mickey instead of waiting in line!!"... they get there.. and now see some offering they never knew existed before.. lets say.. they learn about the Luau and now are lured into making a reservation for that. In doing so, Disney has marketed a property to the targeted audience and in doing so upsold and locked in the customer for more time.

The idea of having all the customers doing this pre-planning gives Disney a powerful funnel all the potential customers go through.. and hence becomes an extremely powerful advertising and marketing tool where they can promote offerings guests may not have been exposed to, or influence what people may chose. It's a tactic used time and time again through so many sales channels... and by having this funnel the customers go through, it's "prime time" when it comes to exposure/eyeballs. That's part of the value - that can be converted into real dollars.

And my point about UNI is... Disney doesn't have to win 100% of the customer's time to be successful. Of course they'd like to keep people on property all the time... But ANY time that Disney locks in through pre-planning is a win - they don't have to lock in 100% of the time for there to be a benefit to the methodology. If a guest was thinking about maybe spending the last 3 days of their trip 'adhoc' and deciding where to go.. and Disney successfully reclaims one of those three days by scheduling something on property = WIN. They gained one of three they were standing to lose... it's not a 'all or nothing' situation.

Yes there is a slippery slope of once people get offsite, etc... but that doesn't mean the days Disney locked in are lost.. it's just less than optimal.


When it applies to the business model that DVC was built on YES it does mean you need 100% lock in. DVC resorts were not built with the thought or intention of guests leaving property. THey would like this to be the case for all resorts but it isn't. When DVC was developed for WDW the company thought they had an edge to lock people in 100% to property. Projections and numbers were based on guests staying exclusively on property. They thought they were printing money. TO prove these efforts they partnered with Mears to try to get guests to use Magical Express so they do not have to rent cars allowing them to go of property. That is physical proof that they do everything they can to keep guests on property. This is before anything associated with MyMagic+ was developed or implemented. DVC resorts were built prior to that debacle.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
When it applies to the business model that DVC was built on YES it does mean you need 100% lock in. DVC resorts were not built with the thought or intention of guests leaving property. THey would like this to be the case for all resorts but it isn't. When DVC was developed for WDW the company thought they had an edge to lock people in 100% to property. Projections and numbers were based on guests staying exclusively on property. They thought they were printing money. TO prove these efforts they partnered with Mears to try to get guests to use Magical Express so they do not have to rent cars allowing them to go of property. That is physical proof that they do everything they can to keep guests on property. This is before anything associated with MyMagic+ was developed or implemented. DVC resorts were built prior to that debacle.

1) I wasn't talking about DVC, I don't know why you keep inserting it as if the whole discussion hinges on it
2) I don't subscribe to your train of thought either
3) I don't see how giving Magical Express perks to DVC means anything except they needed to ensure DVC wasn't inferior to the other on property perks and the magical express proposition for value is the same for DVC vs non-DVC to Disney. Keep them within your box.

DVC has people locked into spending money... they spent it up front! From that point on - it's all gravy. I don't follow you with the idea that the whole DVC model relied upon people visiting the parks and needed that for justification. The DVC model floats on it's own. The value to the company is the idea you have a captive audience locked into repeat visits... but DVC itself isn't going to hurt if you don't visit the parks. And if you weren't going to visit the parks, you wouldn't have paid for a WDW hotel room, so there is no worry about cannibalization there either if the DVC'er stays in their room and doesn't goto Disney. There is no cannibalization of rooms if the person wasn't going to visit WDW in the first place. The DVC room wasn't competing with a hotel room for that customer.

The group that stands to lose.. is the parks. So it's an opportunity loss... not that DVC needs you to be in the parks to function. In a sense, a DVC person not hitting the parks is LESS of an opportunity loss for Disney because the person wouldn't have been spending on a hotel room anyways.

Obviously the pitch to Disney is 'customers for life..' - but needing the lock-in to be built... don't see it.

I think the problem is more about 'now' vs when DVC was pitched. I'm sure now Disney just assumes those DVC heads are guaranteed admissions... and if you undermine those assumptions.. then they need to scramble to ensure their estimates are met. It becomes more of a problem of complacency for attracting attendance - not, 'the DVC business model wasn't viable without it..'
 

nytimez

Well-Known Member
Gosh, I feel like a pioneer. Here it is 30 years after my first visit and people are starting to do exactly what I always have done since day one. My first visit included side trips to Kennedy Space Center and Silver Springs that was in 1983. My second included trips to Sea World and Cypress Gardens and Tampa. And so on, year after year including one year an overnight to Key West. Primary location was WDW, but, I loved exploring Central Florida and always, always had other things on my agenda. Even when I stayed on site, at least one, maybe two days were spent elsewhere. Don't get me wrong, I love WDW, but, my interests aren't just WDW. I have gone to Uni many times, even in the dark years when everyone thought it was an awful place. I enjoyed it. Didn't go as often, but, it was always on my list for consideration. Now...it's more of a priority and my anticipation is higher when going there then to WDW. Possibly because WDW, to me, is a been there, done that, but, it no longer also includes must do again.

Just curious, how did you get there 30 years ago? When we went from the northeast back in the 1970s and 1980s we drove. Many people did. There was a seemingly endless convoy of cars down I-95, all going to Disney, at certain times of year.

When you got there, you had your car. (And if you did fly, you pretty much had to rent one.) It was much easier to go to Cypress and Busch Gardens in Tampa or visit Xanadu (HOME OF THE FUTURE!) or do whatever other options O-Town had to offer back then.

It's a more recent phenomena that people fly in and go only to Disney (one that DME really helped to grow).

That's why Harry Potter is the game changer for more than Universal. It's the reason to rent a car and go off the res the way they did years ago. The difference today is that there are many more things to do off the res - and many more quality options - than there were 30 years ago.
 

nytimez

Well-Known Member
In response to both of you... for this type of 'planning leads to more lock-in' - it does not mean you need 100% lock-in for the model to work and improve things. I point you back to the quote again



Like I said, this isn't just about people leaving property - but gives Disney a way of marketing their offerings. Play it real simple for illustration purposes... User is lured to site with "I heard you can make an appointment with Mickey instead of waiting in line!!"... they get there.. and now see some offering they never knew existed before.. lets say.. they learn about the Luau and now are lured into making a reservation for that. In doing so, Disney has marketed a property to the targeted audience and in doing so upsold and locked in the customer for more time.

The idea of having all the customers doing this pre-planning gives Disney a powerful funnel all the potential customers go through.. and hence becomes an extremely powerful advertising and marketing tool where they can promote offerings guests may not have been exposed to, or influence what people may chose. It's a tactic used time and time again through so many sales channels... and by having this funnel the customers go through, it's "prime time" when it comes to exposure/eyeballs. That's part of the value - that can be converted into real dollars.

And my point about UNI is... Disney doesn't have to win 100% of the customer's time to be successful. Of course they'd like to keep people on property all the time... But ANY time that Disney locks in through pre-planning is a win - they don't have to lock in 100% of the time for there to be a benefit to the methodology. If a guest was thinking about maybe spending the last 3 days of their trip 'adhoc' and deciding where to go.. and Disney successfully reclaims one of those three days by scheduling something on property = WIN. They gained one of three they were standing to lose... it's not a 'all or nothing' situation.

Yes there is a slippery slope of once people get offsite, etc... but that doesn't mean the days Disney locked in are lost.. it's just less than optimal.

I don't think the funnel is as powerful as you think it is.
 

Goofyernmost

Well-Known Member
Just curious, how did you get there 30 years ago? When we went from the northeast back in the 1970s and 1980s we drove. Many people did. There was a seemingly endless convoy of cars down I-95, all going to Disney, at certain times of year.

When you got there, you had your car. (And if you did fly, you pretty much had to rent one.) It was much easier to go to Cypress and Busch Gardens in Tampa or visit Xanadu (HOME OF THE FUTURE!) or do whatever other options O-Town had to offer back then.

It's a more recent phenomena that people fly in and go only to Disney (one that DME really helped to grow).

That's why Harry Potter is the game changer for more than Universal. It's the reason to rent a car and go off the res the way they did years ago. The difference today is that there are many more things to do off the res - and many more quality options - than there were 30 years ago.
Yes, I totally agree with you. Transportation is crucial. I drove the first 10 years and then interspersed driving with flying including a rental car. I would never be without a vehicle and renting in Florida was very reasonable, maybe even more so now with DME on the road.

I don't know what happened to me in early childhood or perhaps a previous life, but, I cannot stand to be captive. Probably what kept me law abiding all these years. I also get bored quickly and can only take short exposures to anything, including Disney. When I stayed onsite (only once) I had a rental car and used it to explore offsite and even to go to the parks. I found it so much easier and comfortable then the buses. Having driven most of those years the way that I have entered the MK has been through the ttc. When I tried the bus from POP to MK something was missing. My tram ride and Monorail or Ferry across Seven Seas Lagoon watching the castle approaching. I kinda feel sorry for those that are in such a hurry that they want to skip all that, ah, the things and sights they are missing. Oh, well. I still do it so that is their problem. Imagine this...I even loved driving in from the MCO. o_O
 

Clever Name

Well-Known Member
Maybe a comic keeps coming up because you a spelling him name wrong?
You stumbled into my point. Children become aware of the Star Wars characters as their rabid fan boy and girl parents revel in the nostalgia. Of course, these young children use the terms "Light Saver" and "Dark Bader" to imitate their parents retelling of the Star Wars opera. The kids themselves have never seen one frame of a Star Wars film yet they've heard of the characters via the fan nerd pipeline. The children see the Star Wars characters as pitchmen for cars and phones.

It may sound bizarre, but rumors persist that Harrison Ford might play the part of Han Solo again. I can't think of a quicker way to end the franchise.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
I don't think the funnel is as powerful as you think it is.

Don't infer I think this 'pays for it all' - I was pointing out the value prop that so many forget here when they are fixated on FP+ and nothing else. The idea of funneling people through a reservation system is more than just the difference between 'walking to a terminal and doing it ahead of time'. This is about customer engagement, product positioning, marketing, and shaping customer behavior.

When you are doing marketing.. it's about moving the needle.. not just wishing for 100% attachment. You never get 100%.

The idea 'some people will still goto UNI' is not reasoning to paint a program a failure. That's wishing for 100% - something that is unobtainable when you are influencing behavior - not directly limiting it.
 
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