The Official Hurricane Ivan thread...

[Ringo8n24]

Our many dockside casinos got together this morning to try to get a vote for land-based casinos so they do not have to worry about hurricanes destroying them, which they would. A little late guys... I think everyone on the Gulf of Mexico is watching this one as close as Florida is. I pray it goes away from all of us!

 

[Mary Poppins]

Sigh

:brick:

 

[Mary Poppins]

 

[pinkrose]

Sigh

:brick:

I sure hope they're wrong on that track.Poor Fl. doesn't need anymore. Ivan needs to take a turn and head on out to sea. Leave Fl. and the rest of us on the Gulf Coast alone.

 

[BwanaBob]

Our resources are practically maxed out!

We have begun to pull everything from the other 48 cont. states...and it looks like this is going to test the heck out of us!

BTW, I have a few good stock picks for the next couple of weeks... and if you haven't seen it already, look at lumber/commodity futures! I think Charley alone managed to pop them up double digit percentages two weeks ago!

 

[Mr D]

I wonder if it isn't already happening, truckers from other states loaded with plywood sheets selling these at roadside areas, along with batteries, flashlights, small generators, drinking water, MREs(meals,ready to eat), fuel containers.
But most likely its wishful thinking on my part, I have a Peterbilt tractor and a 48' flatbed trailer, if I was in the lower 48 I would make stops at any Home Depot, Costo, Walmart etc driving on down into Fla, and pick up these kind of emergency supplies, and yes then literally sell beside the roadside just like the turtle guy does south of WDW.
I wish the media could start up an idea for independant truckers to form convoys into Fla with supplies as I think there is going to be some panic and hysteria when the public realizes Ivan is coming in for a three tap hit. TWC and other media are downplaying this as a storm thats "somewhere else" but its now in a 3 day window of striking Fla. JB should consider using the National Guard more aggressively to prevent looting.
Evacuate?, nooo, not just yet but I sure wouldn't take off all the storm shutters, make sure all gas tanks are filled, get non perishable food, water, camping equipment (buy LED type of flashlights, last a LOT longer on batteries) portable radio (hand crank rechargeable is the best) and keep up on the news.

 

[Mr D]

Category 5!

www.nws.noaa.gov







--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTNT34 KNHC 090857
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 09 2004

...IVAN REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE AS IT
HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND
CURACAO.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF COLOMBIA...FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
COAST OF VENEZUELA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI
FROM THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT
AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR JAMAICA
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO WESTWARD TO
PEDERNALES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 535
MILES... 860 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH
...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF IVAN SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF ARUBA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE ON ROUTE TOWARD THE AREA NEAR JAMAICA.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT LEAST 160 MPH...255
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES IVAN A RARE CATEGORY 5
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ALTHOUGH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY...IVAN COULD STILL INTENSIFY A
LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.9 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$




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Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Sep-2004 03:03:16 MDT

 

[barnum42]

This all makes for depressing reading. Mainly concern for the locals, but I'm flying out tomorrow for a two week vacation and instead of the usual excitement and expectation I'm concerned by all the bad news indicating shortages of basic comodities and the possibility of Ivan hitting and making things even worse for everyone.

Is everything as bad as it's being painted - no food on the shelves and no gas in the stations?

 

[Mr D]

 

[patelaine1953]

Well, Barnum, at least this time you should be able to make into Florida. What happens once you get there is probably anyone's guess. I have 9 days to go before I arrive there. Unless Ivan moves quickly, I might be in for a somewhat bumpy ride south.

 

[Mary Poppins]

 

[Weird_Inside]

I can handle another hurricane but I CANNOT handle another dose of hurricane PEOPLE going ape-caca over another hurricane.

 

[symbasys]

I can handle another hurricane but I CANNOT handle another dose of hurricane PEOPLE going ape-caca over another hurricane.

I assume you're talking about these message boards, in which case I don't understand why people complain about what other people are posting in the forums. The thread subject is clearly stated, and if you don't want to read it, DON'T. There are plenty of other threads.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I can handle another hurricane but I CANNOT handle another dose of hurricane PEOPLE going ape-caca over another hurricane.

Its a Category 5 hurricane, there's plenty to be cautious about. Now's the time to go to lowes, walmart and to get gas - just incase. Because they arent sure where its going. (Although Nogaps and Gdfl have it comming here again)

However, since you cant handle it, why dont you go to Jamacia today and report back on how bad the storm is when it devistates the island in the next 48 hours.....

 

[Weird_Inside]

I assume you're talking about these message boards, in which case I don't understand why people complain about what other people are posting in the forums. The thread subject is clearly stated, and if you don't want to read it, DON'T. There are plenty of other threads.

Whoa, slow down there champ.

I wasn't talkin about the boards - I'm talking about all of Florida. The people going absolutely insane because of the propaganda presented by the media and local news.

I'm talking about people getting into fights over water - batteries selling like hotcakes. People congesting I-95 to the point of a standstill or people falling asleep in their cars on the side of the road because everyone was trying to escape. I'm talking about a state-wide gas shortage.

There is a difference between informed and terrified and the line has clearly been crossed several times thanks to the Frances coverage.

I apologize for not stating my point clearly enough but please don't jump down my throat or post some passive-agressive bs post about "just not reading".

Thanks!

 

[Weird_Inside]

However, since you cant handle it, why dont you go to Jamacia today and report back on how bad the storm is when it devistates the island in the next 48 hours.....

Whoa, thanks PhotoDave for completely mis-reading my post and turning it into yet another passive agressive flame fest. I really don't know what you're implying there but it doesn't make a lot of sense.

Yes, people are predicting it to come here, but some aren't - I think it's in people's first instinct to panic and make a huge deal out of this. Our whole production got haulted because most of our group members drove as far up a Wisconsin or Indiana!! That my friends, is media terrorism.

Once again, information is great - people need to be informed - but like I said earlier, a line has surely been crossed.

People (the media) were predicting the storm to be ten times worse than it was up until 12 hours before it passed over Orlando - that gives you some sort of idea of the stuff they have on the shelves.

The weather service has proven to be no more accurate or useful than licking your thumb and sticking it in the air. The five day forecast has done nothing more than completely terrorize people and turn neighbor against neighbor over a rain storm.

Basically, they can predict all they want, but the fact of the matter is that no one really knows. Behind Ivan are supposedly five other storms that could potentially turn into bigger storms as well. What do we do? Completely hault life until the end of November?

All we can do is plan, protect ourselves and hope for the best - but NOT panic. That won't do anyone any good. You can resume pealing tape off of your windows now.

 

[symbasys]

Whoa, slow down there champ.

I wasn't talkin about the boards - I'm talking about all of Florida. The people going absolutely insane because of the propaganda presented by the media and local news.

I'm talking about people getting into fights over water - batteries selling like hotcakes. People congesting I-95 to the point of a standstill or people falling asleep in their cars on the side of the road because everyone was trying to escape. I'm talking about a state-wide gas shortage.

There is a difference between informed and terrified and the line has clearly been crossed several times thanks to the Frances coverage.

I apologize for not stating my point clearly enough but please don't jump down my throat or post some passive-agressive bs post about "just not reading".

Thanks!

Now who's being passive-aggressive

It wasn't meant as a flame, and I do agree with you in some respects. However some people are prone to panic, especially when faced with the chance that they may suffer major property damage or injury. It's been stated before that the new 5-day track forecast creates undue stress, and I think that is true. These things can change course without warning (Charley) and giving people a few extra days to think about it isn't always a good thing. The media do what they do -- hype everything to help justify their positions. Not that all of them are bad, but I really got tired of seeing reporters on TV making a big deal about the palm tree that just moved in the wind.

 

[Atta83]

I can handle another hurricane but I CANNOT handle another dose of hurricane PEOPLE going ape-caca over another hurricane.

Its the way you worded it. If you would had said something different you would of been fine.

As for me I think everyone needs to watch this one closely but not to panic yet. I am not going to panic until hmmm possibly tomorrow or saturday, maybe sunday...you know when i will start to panic...

 

[Weird_Inside]

Now who's being passive-aggressive

It wasn't meant as a flame, and I do agree with you in some respects. However some people are prone to panic, especially when faced with the chance that they may suffer major property damage or injury. It's been stated before that the new 5-day track forecast creates undue stress, and I think that is true. These things can change course without warning (Charley) and giving people a few extra days to think about it isn't always a good thing. The media do what they do -- hype everything to help justify their positions. Not that all of them are bad, but I really got tired of seeing reporters on TV making a big deal about the palm tree that just moved in the wind.

And like I said earlier, I apologize for my initial post not stating my entire opinion. Sometimes, I just assume everyone knows exactly where I'm coming from.

I think that if Charley and Frances have taught us anything, it's, exactly as you said - that we don't KNOW where these things are going to go and that there isn't any "good" way to really go about this.

If people don't know in time, that DEFINATELY isn't good (ex. Charley) but if they have too much time, they may panic and act irrationally over something that may amount to nothing more than a minor rain storm (ex. Frances).

Like I said, the best thing to do is prepare but NOT to panic. Which is hard for a lot of people, because they quite frankly DON'T know what's going on. All they know is what they see shoved down their throats every day on the news. And what is the news telling them, "BE AFRAID! BE VERY VERY AFRAID!" and so they of course, do exactly what they're told and go out and freak out.

This is bad, and I hope everyone would agree with me at least on that point.

 

[pinkrose]

I have to agree. The media overplayes everything.
Last night watchihng the weather, they siad that conditions up this way aren't favorable for Ivan to remain that strong (dry air, ect) and he should weaken some. That's good news there. What ever cat he is when he gets up here, I do hope he doesn't get Fl. Poor Fl. has had enough. The models are going so many different ways. They just have no way of knowing. Everyone in the Gulf and on the Eastern coast have to watch it.