The Official Hurricane Frances thread...

chancellor

Member
barnum42 said:
Aparently an airline is going to divert to Tampa on Saturday. Looking at the projected path that still seems a bit dodgy.

We are expecting lots of rain and wind all weekend in Tampa, but I would expect the airport will remain open (unless the storm takes a westerly turn and we really get some bad weather). My question for the airline would be how they propose to get around the hurricane to get here?

At any rate, if you have any questions about Tampa, I'll be happy to answer them (though I expect the weather will not be good enough to do anything around here all weekend anyway).

And thank you, Speck, Tampa does rock, and I previously mentioned that hurricane teflon I'm counting on....
 

barnum42

New Member
Thanks for the support gang. It's not over until the fat lady lady sings....and I've hidden her music.

The airline diverting to Tampa on Saturday is intending to bus everyone up to Sanford. How sensible or not is that? Would it be a good idea to drive a bus in that weather (or a rental car).

Another alternative is to see if I can get a Tampa flight for Sunday or Monday and drive myself across. The drive from Sanford to 192 is over an hour, so Tampa would not be that much longer.
 

TomDisney

Active Member
Be careful there too...there has been talk of reversing the eastbound lanes of I-4 from Tampa to Orlando and making them westbound lanes. This came about as a result of the evacuation of Floyd several years ago and traffic was backed up more than 30 miles with people evacuating the east coast.
 

chancellor

Member
barnum42 said:
Thanks for the support gang. It's not over until the fat lady lady sings....and I've hidden her music.

The airline diverting to Tampa on Saturday is intending to bus everyone up to Sanford. How sensible or not is that? Would it be a good idea to drive a bus in that weather (or a rental car).

Another alternative is to see if I can get a Tampa flight for Sunday or Monday and drive myself across. The drive from Sanford to 192 is over an hour, so Tampa would not be that much longer.

I wouldn't plan on driving anywhere on Saturday, you should stay in Tampa until the weather improves. I believe someone was killed during Hurricane Charley because a van was blown across the highway into their car. Whether you are in Tampa, Sanford or Lake Buena Vista, you will be stuck in a hotel room anyway. Be safe!
 

barnum42

New Member
chancellor said:
I wouldn't plan on driving anywhere on Saturday, you should stay in Tampa until the weather improves. I believe someone was killed during Hurricane Charley because a van was blown across the highway into their car. Whether you are in Tampa, Sanford or Lake Buena Vista, you will be stuck in a hotel room anyway. Be safe!
This is what I thought - there must be a misunderstanding regarding this plan to bus people on the same day.
 

TomDisney

Active Member
20.jpg


This storm makes Florida look tiny in this picture....
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
TomDisney said:
This storm makes Florida look tiny in this picture....

Of course it does....it is the size of the state of Texas.

From Local 6:

The Tropical Prediction Center's latest predicted path for Hurricane Frances brings the storm to southwest Orlando packing winds over 100 mph, according to Local 6 News meteorologist Tom Sorrells.

The "eye path" of the storm is predicted to hit Florida -- possiblity Port St. Lucie -- at 8 or 9 a.m. with winds of up to 145 mph, Sorrells said. If the storm keeps its current course, it will travel northwest and pass Winter Haven, Fla.

By 2 a.m. Sunday, the storm should pass southwest of Orlando, bringing up to 10 inches of rain. It is then expected to continue on land and pass by Ocala, Fla., Local 6 News reported.

Local 6 News reported that if the storm continues on the projected path, Orange County, Fla., and Orlando will see up to 10 inches of rain early Sunday and winds over 100 mph. The winds could last for several hours in Orange County, Tom Sorrells reported.

Marion County residents can expect winds to reach more than 80 mph and possibly eight inches of rain.

Residents in Seminole County can expect 100 mph winds and up to 10 inches of rain.

Volusia County residents can expect to see a storm surge of up to 14 feet and possibly 135 mph winds. Also, up to 12 inches of rain is possible.

Residents in Polk County, Fla., can expect 100 mph winds and up to 10 inches of rain.

Lake County residents can expect to see winds at over 90 mph and up to 10 inches of rain.

Residents in Sumter County can expect 80 mph winds and rain of up to eight inches.

Brevard County residents can expect to see a storm surge of up to 16 feet with 140 mph winds.

Residents in Osceola County could see 110 mph winds and up to 10 inches of rain.


By the way....just when you thought Florida couldn't get any more boring, it does. Everything is closing up right about now. My girlfriend and I were going to go out to the movies tonight, but just to be on the safe side, I called the Muvico theater I go to. Nope, they are closed. Perhaps a Regal Cinema? Closed. Everything is closing now....except for Circuit City. I was there earlier today, and they said they were running under normal operating hours. :lol:

When this guy hits, I will definitely be "chasing this storm" and will provide some photos and possibly video.
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
Never mind about my question....it has been answered by the Orlando Sentinel.

SeaWorld Orlando said today it will close Friday at 3 p.m. and remain closed Saturday because of Hurricane Frances. The theme park will evaluate conditions on Sunday.

Universal Orlando including Islands of Adventure, Universal Studios and CityWalk will also close Friday at 3 p.m. and remain closed Saturday because of Hurricane Frances. The theme park will evaluate conditions on Sunday.

Walt Disney World officials are meeting this afternoon and discussing plans. Announcements are expected later in the day.
 

tigger248

Well-Known Member
Atta83 said:
Well the pressure seems to be going up. From what they are saying with this it is uncertain if this will continue to rise. She might hit the high and turn to a northwest position. But the eye keeps getting smaller and smaller. Yesterday her eye was 32 miles wide, then she went to 28 miles wide. This morning I read that it was now 23 miles wide...YIKES!!!

I'll keep telling ya what i hear when i hear more of an update!

Out of curiosity, is the smaller eye a bad thing? It sorta sounds that way but I don't know much about those kinds of things.

I've never been through a hurricane so I know very little about them, other than they're massive and cause a LOT of damage. This one looks very scary and I hope everyone stays safe as I am keeping all of you in my prayers.
 

Atta83

Well-Known Member
tigger248 said:
Out of curiosity, is the smaller eye a bad thing? It sorta sounds that way but I don't know much about those kinds of things.

I've never been through a hurricane so I know very little about them, other than they're massive and cause a LOT of damage. This one looks very scary and I hope everyone stays safe as I am keeping all of you in my prayers.

From what I can understand if the eye is closed that means bad news. Her eye is now closed according to hurricane hunters and is 19 miles wide. The winds around here are very strong and more compact.
 

tigger248

Well-Known Member
I hope this doesn't sound too horrible for me to ask, but I was just wondering: how far is Daytona International Speedway from the ocean? Obviously I know it's in Daytona, but when I go to Daytona I only go to the track and not the beach (I haven't seen the beach since 1997 and I don't really remember it's relation to the track). I was just curious as to how much damage the track may sustain or if 14 foot storm surge would reach the track. Again, I apologize if this is an insensitive question to ask.
 

Tim G

Well-Known Member
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL


...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES HEADING FOR FLORIDA EAST COAST...



...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION TODAY...



...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FROM FLORIDA CITY TO FLAGLER BEACH

INCLUDING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...



...INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING ISSUED FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES OF

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...



...AREAS AFFECTED...

THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN

BY RESIDENTS OF THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...

ORANGE...BREVARD...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...SAINT LUCIE...MARTIN

AND OKEECHOBEE.



...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO

FLORIDA CITY...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

COASTAL COUNTIES...AND ALSO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE

WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OKEECHOBEE...OSCEOLA...ORANGE...LAKE

...INLAND VOLUSIA AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN

ISSUED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL

FLORIDA.



...STORM INFORMATION...

AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF SEVERE HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 500 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE

IN SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.



...PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION!!!

PEOPLE IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST BE RUSHING THEIR HURRICANE PLANS

TO COMPLETION TODAY. TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF THE DAY TIME HOURS AND

GOOD WEATHER TODAY. FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...AND

LEAVE IMMEDIATELY IF TOLD TO DO SO. IF YOU LIVE ON THE BARRIER

ISLANDS OR IN A MOBILE OR MANUFACTURED HOME OR A FLOOD PRONE AREA YOU

SHOULD SECURE YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS AND EVACUATE. IF YOU ARE

EVACUATING THE AREA...LEAVE AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE.



...WIND IMPACTS...

THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT IS

MUCH GREATER FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED

WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE

NEAR 145 MPH...BUT SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT

IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE

HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS

OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE

WINDS...WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO

EXPERIENCE MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WITH CATEGORY FOUR FORCE

WINDS...LARGE TREES ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING

MATERIALS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS. WELL BUILT HOMES WITHOUT HURRICANE

SHUTTERS OR WINDOW COVERINGS CAN SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE. SMALL

STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF FAILURES...WITH MOBILE HOMES

EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.



TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE AS

EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING

ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND

OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE

STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE CORE OF FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL

EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE

REMAINDER OF THE DAY.



...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...

THE STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS

EXTREME. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE

LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE

EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE EYE OF FRANCES MOVES

ONSHORE. BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF FRANCES AT LEAST

TWO HIGH TIDE CYCLES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING HURRICANE CONDITIONS.

SIGNIFICANT WIND AND WAVE DAMAGE IS LIKELY IN THE INTRACOASTAL

WATERWAY.



...FLOOD IMPACTS...

THE FLOOD THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE THREAT OF

FLOODING IS MUCH GREATER THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED WITH HURRICANE

CHARLEY. TEN TO TWELVE INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FRANCES CROSSES

THE STATE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.

THESE SIGNIFICANT RAIN TOTALS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF

FRANCES...AND THAT IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AS IT CROSSES THE

PENINSULA. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE

CENTER TRACK. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL

FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLACES ALREADY

SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO SERIOUS

FLOODING. RESIDENTS ALONG THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER SHOULD BE PREPARED

FOR FLOODING IF EXCESSIVE RAIN DEVELOPS. SANDBAGS ARE AVAILABLE AT

MANY COUNTY LOCATIONS FOR RESIDENTS.



...MARINE IMPACTS...

THE MARINE THREAT TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS IS

EXTREME. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY...

THEN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. AN

INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL WILL ALSO PRECEDE THE HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM WINDS AND SEAS WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY

MORNING...INCREASING TO HURRICANE CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO

SATURDAY.



...TORNADO IMPACTS...

THE TORNADO THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS MODERATE. WITH THE

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE

THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR TORNADOES. IMPORTANTLY...TORNADOES

MAY BE THE FIRST THREAT TO ARRIVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN

ASSOCIATION WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS...ESPECIALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE

CENTER TRACK AND IN PROXIMITY OF THE COAST. OF COURSE...TORNADOES

WITHIN THE INNER RAINBANDS AND EYEWALL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.



...NEXT UPDATE...

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 PM OR

SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.



FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...SEE THE

MELBOURNE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
As of 4:43 PM
 

donsullivan

Premium Member
From what I remember on various backstage tours over the years, all of the buildings on the WDW property are designed to withstand 180MPH wind impacts. I'm sure there are a few backstage buildings that might be be quite so strong, but overall they have some pretty strict building codes throughout all of RCID. Many of their building codes have historically been stricter than the surrounding counties
 

Tim G

Well-Known Member
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="98%" border=1><TBODY><TR><TD bgColor=#ff0000><TABLE width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=large>STORM STATUS</TD><TD class=small align=right>September 2, 4:38 PM EDT</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD bgColor=#cccccc><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width="95%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=2>Name: Hurricane Frances</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small vAlign=top>Location: Very near san salvador and about 375 miles, 605 km, East-Southeast of The Lower Florida East Coast.
Lat/Long: 24.1N, 74.8W
Max Winds: 140 mph
Category: 4
</TD><TD class=small vAlign=top noWrap>Heading: Northwest
Speed: 10 mph
Pressure: 27.94 inches
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

2055Frances-07.gif
 

NemoRocks78

Seized
Premium Member
New advisory is out....

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 36

Issued at: 4:38 PM EDT 9/2/04 (gateway).

San salvador in the eye of frances, sustained winds of 114 mph reported,

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the east coast of Florida from Florida city northward to flagler beach, including lake okeechobee.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida keys from south of Florida city to the seven mile bridge including Florida bay.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the all the bahamas.

A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 5 pm edt, 2100z, the eye of hurricane frances was located by reconnaissance aircraft, surface observations, satellite images and radar, near latitude 24.1 north, longitude 74.8 west or very near san salvador and about 375 miles, 605 km, east-southeast of the lower Florida east coast.

Frances is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph, 17 km/hr, and a northwestward to west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track, the core of hurricane frances will continue to move near or over the central bahamas today and will move over the northwestern bahamas on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph, 220 km/hr, with higher gusts. Frances remains a dangerous category four hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles, 130 km, from the center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles, 295 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb, 27.93 inches. San salvador just reported a pressure of 948 mb, 27.99 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near the eye of frances on the west side of eleuthera island, and on the north side of grand bahama island. Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of the other islands of the bahamas. Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, along with large and dangerous battering waves, can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida.

Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, locally as high as 20 inches, are possible in association with frances.

Swells generated by frances will be affecting portions of the southeastern coast of the united states. These swells could cause dangerous surf and rip currents.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

Repeating the 5 pm edt position, 24.1 n, 74.8 w. Movement toward, northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds, 140 mph. Minimum central pressure, 946 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 8 pm edt followed by the next complete advisory at 11 pm edt.
 

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