TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[CaptainAmerica]

Not that I am looking to get into a game of so-and-so are not reporting accurate numbers or anything...but..you guys do realize these are publicly traded companies...right? These are the #s that are reported to stock holders, and outright lying about them would open them up to severe law suits. Yes its hard to prove, but its a risk not worth taking.

That's incorrect. Neither resort reports attendance and they're under no obligation to do so. Disney will report things like "domestic parks attendance was up 3%," but they won't publish raw internal figures.

 

[Next Big Thing]

Because they can't afford to grow in perpetuity if their only path to growth is to be constantly building. See above: you need to be able to spin off 2-4% even in a year with nothing new.

This is where I disagree with you. The company starts may start to get too comfortable with Uni's place in the market at that point and stop putting money into the parks.

It's not like because they're building every year they aren't making money. No, they're making A LOT of money.

 

[Mouse_Trap]

Disney's growth shows that the Potter revenue isn't cannibalizing Disney's. It's not like guests are taking a dollar they would have spent at WDW and spending it at USO. They're taking dollars they wouldn't have spent at all and adding them to the overall "pie" that is the central Florida tourism industry.


I have no problem with IP attractions per se, but you need to be able to generate 3% growth without building a new attraction every year.


Because they can't afford to grow in perpetuity if their only path to growth is to be constantly building. See above: you need to be able to spin off 2-4% even in a year with nothing new.


Investors don't like volatile growth followed by stagnation. They want continuous, managed growth. Plus, there's no IP out there that will do for them what Potter has done. Once Potter has run its course, when then shall they turn? People are kidding themselves if they think Nintendo is on that scale.

Disney's growth shows that the Potter revenue isn't cannibalizing Disney's. It's not like guests are taking a dollar they would have spent at WDW and spending it at USO. They're taking dollars they wouldn't have spent at all and adding them to the overall "pie" that is the central Florida tourism industry.


I have no problem with IP attractions per se, but you need to be able to generate 3% growth without building a new attraction every year.


Because they can't afford to grow in perpetuity if their only path to growth is to be constantly building. See above: you need to be able to spin off 2-4% even in a year with nothing new.


Investors don't like volatile growth followed by stagnation. They want continuous, managed growth. Plus, there's no IP out there that will do for them what Potter has done. Once Potter has run its course, when then shall they turn? People are kidding themselves if they think Nintendo is on that scale.

Agreed, they have certainly not cannibalised Disney's numbers, I don't think anyone claimed they have, or ever predicted they would though. Only Disney would know if they are seeing different trends, i.e. guests with shorter stays, or days they go off-site.
What we could never know, if would Disney guests have grown far more had it not been for the developments at Universal.

I don't get the fascination people have for constant growth, there is absolutely nothing wrong with consolidation. Especially if it follows a period of significant growth.
The chase for constant growth is why half the world goes into meltdown when it doesn't occur, our economies are far too reliant on growth occurring in order to be sustainable.
Even on this measure, you don''t need 3% growth in visitor numbers if you can increase in-park spending by the same factor...in fact doing so is far more efficient and is what Disney is chasing. As for stagnation, the one place that isn't happening right now is at Universal, stand in one place and you'd get stuck in wet concrete as a new ride is being built. WDW has the parks that have stagnated, I still love them but so little has changed in 10-15 years it's incredible. Even the announced changes....wow a TSMM and Snorin' expansion, yawn. Avator will hopefully be amazing, even if no-one cares about the IP. Hopefully it hasn't been value engineered to within a nickel of its life.

I actually think Nintendo could be a massive as Potter, if not bigger. Not everyone will agree I know, but not everyone likes Potter (personally, I'm no fan of it). Who knows what other IPs could deliver the same kind of growth in the future or what will be developed? Who though Potter would be worth $15 billion in 15 years time, when in 1997 the publisher didn't like the authors name, gave <$5,000 advance and had a print run of just 500 books?

Other IPs? We know Nintendo and a Marvel expansion. Star Trek has been rumoured.

 

[asianway]

Not that I am looking to get into a game of so-and-so are not reporting accurate numbers or anything...but..you guys do realize these are publicly traded companies...right? These are the #s that are reported to stock holders, and outright lying about them would open them up to severe law suits. Yes its hard to prove, but its a risk not worth taking.

This is not a report published by the company and signed off on by the CFO, you realize that, right?

 

[wdwfan4ver]

I was shocked about Universal of Japan going past Epcot, but not DHS or AK. DHS was only 10,000 guests up on Universal of Japan before 2014 and I did recall Universal of Japan getting a big jump due to Harry Potter.

The increase of Universal Studios at Universal Orlando wasn't a shock considering Transformers opened in 2013 along with the Simpsons land that year, and Potter last year.

 

[alphac2005]

Disney's growth shows that the Potter revenue isn't cannibalizing Disney's. It's not like guests are taking a dollar they would have spent at WDW and spending it at USO. They're taking dollars they wouldn't have spent at all and adding them to the overall "pie" that is the central Florida tourism industry.


I have no problem with IP attractions per se, but you need to be able to generate 3% growth without building a new attraction every year.


Because they can't afford to grow in perpetuity if their only path to growth is to be constantly building. See above: you need to be able to spin off 2-4% even in a year with nothing new.


Investors don't like volatile growth followed by stagnation. They want continuous, managed growth. Plus, there's no IP out there that will do for them what Potter has done. Once Potter has run its course, when then shall they turn? People are kidding themselves if they think Nintendo is on that scale.

Is the concept that they are building a destination resort foreign to you? It seems juvenile to think that all of the sudden they will change large swaths of long-term vacation habits to Orlando. Potter brought their baseline IOA attendance up significantly and one could deduce over the next few years with all of the additional attractions coming on-line in both parks, they will begin to start to see that payoff of year over year growth without large capital expenditures.

I could easily make an argument that IOA was on course for additional growth, but due to Potter going live at USO, it took away from growth (and that would have naturally occurred at USO). The property would have managed to grow without phase two of Potter at this point.

Comcast has a marketing platform for their resort that can rival Disney's and that in its own will pay huge dividends over time.

 

[Frankie The Beer]

You win a price increase!

No truer words have ever been posted.

 

[danlb_2000]

Maybe I wasn't clear. The franchises themselves are time tested, but their theme park impact is absolutely flash-in-the-pan. This isn't even debatable. Islands of Adventure was the only Orlando park that couldn't muster any growth whatsoever, even while Universal Studios grew by leaps and bounds. That tells a very real story about the long-term strategic value of these new attractions once the new car smell wears off.

In fact, the tremendous growth at Universal Studios probably masks an even worse story at IOA. IOA almost certainly saw a bump from guests visiting the resort for Diagon Alley and the Hogwarts Express. That means the Potter-adjusted growth at IOA was likely actually negative.

Edited to correct typos.

I am not sure if you can draw a firm conclusion from the IOA number because I Hogwarts Express throws a unique variable into the mix. With the opening of Diagon Alley it's not surprising that UOR would get the lion's share of the first clicks, but HE has really driven park to park ticket sales so IOA is probably getting a lot more second clicks thus increasing it actual attendance. I don't think the investors are going to care as much about that 0% as they are about the 18.7% increase in revenue for the Universal Orlando resort in the 3rd quarter.

 

[gmajew]

I think the numbers are very positive for all the parks as a whole. Worldwide attendance appears to have gone up as a whole. That is good news for the industry.

Orlando no matter how you slice it wow a lot of people go to Orlando for vacation! That is good news for every theme park in the area as more people come more things become successful! Universal jump is impressive... IOA may be flat but it is still a positive as the entire property is up!

WDW is up 3% overall that is again a big number on its old total guess count. Over a million more people visited that is impressive considering only NFL has opened.

 

[WondersOfLife]

Disney Studios Paris and Disneyland Parc both drop 4.7%, even with Ratatouille opening in July.

I guess attendance in the first 6 months of 2014 was really low.

I'll be going to Disneyland Paris in September!! Glad to know that there isn't really a huge crowd draw there!! XD

 

[roj2323]

I have a feeling DHS will be higher. The park was regularly blowing past its attendance projections for months during Frozen summer fun and Star wars weekends. Christmas was rather busy as well.

Well it looks as if i was wrong. At least it was in the 2% range instead of the 1%

 

[mahnamahna101]

Agreed, they have certainly not cannibalised Disney's numbers, I don't think anyone claimed they have, or ever predicted they would though. Only Disney would know if they are seeing different trends, i.e. guests with shorter stays, or days they go off-site.
What we could never know, if would Disney guests have grown far more had it not been for the developments at Universal.

I don't get the fascination people have for constant growth, there is absolutely nothing wrong with consolidation. Especially if it follows a period of significant growth.
The chase for constant growth is why half the world goes into meltdown when it doesn't occur, our economies are far too reliant on growth occurring in order to be sustainable.
Even on this measure, you don''t need 3% growth in visitor numbers if you can increase in-park spending by the same factor...in fact doing so is far more efficient and is what Disney is chasing. As for stagnation, the one place that isn't happening right now is at Universal, stand in one place and you'd get stuck in wet concrete as a new ride is being built. WDW has the parks that have stagnated, I still love them but so little has changed in 10-15 years it's incredible. Even the announced changes....wow a TSMM and Snorin' expansion, yawn. Avator will hopefully be amazing, even if no-one cares about the IP. Hopefully it hasn't been value engineered to within a nickel of its life.

I actually think Nintendo could be a massive as Potter, if not bigger. Not everyone will agree I know, but not everyone likes Potter (personally, I'm no fan of it). Who knows what other IPs could deliver the same kind of growth in the future or what will be developed? Who though Potter would be worth $15 billion in 15 years time, when in 1997 the publisher didn't like the authors name, gave <$5,000 advance and had a print run of just 500 books?

Other IPs? We know Nintendo and a Marvel expansion. Star Trek has been rumoured.

Nintendo replacing KidZone
Fallon/30 Rock replacing Twister
Fast and Furious replacing Disaster
Ministry of Magic replacing Fear Factor
Something in the MIB/Springfield mystery plot
Something to replace Shrek/Lucy
Updates for T2, E.T. and Mummy (rumored)

JP/JW revamp (using the Discovery Center and the rest of the Trikes plot)
possible Hogsmeade revamp (if they ever decide to remove DC... not likely. MoM is likely the last major Potter-based addition)
MSHI expansion (Doom and Carnage bulldozed, Hulk revamped, new theming/facades)
Toon Lagoon revamp/retheme
Lost Continent revamp/retheme
Seuss expansion
nighttime show for IOA

Volcano Bay (water park)
Sapphire Falls
Cabana Bay expansion
3-5 more resorts
Possible new CityWalk-esque complex
Eventual 3rd gate

Universal is going to surprise some people... USF should be past 9 million for 2015 if it increases a little bit less than this year. IOA should get to almost 8.5 million due to HE spillover.

2016 should definitely see both parks past 9 million.

By 2018, both could potentially be past 10 million - might even be a foregone conclusion! Kong + F&F + Fallon + water park +Sapphire Falls + Diagon spillover + Nintendo + Avengers + whatever else Universal comes up with=higher and higher attendance.

I don't see Universal's attendance declining anytime soon. They've got too much momentum and enough people haven't visited Universal Orlando to where it will continually seem fresh to almost all visitors.

 

[Frankie The Beer]

Figures at not surprising within the USA. I personally don't see the Universal parks to ever come close to the Disney parks in Florida anytime soon. IoA staying flat because of no new attractions should be a little concerning for Universal, I would have expected an increase, especially in the face of Disney's parks which don't need to build new stuff yet consistently increase. This is why we investors love Bob Iger.

Real story is the Japanese market though. I think TDR will ultimately give MK a run for the top spot in five years. The bad thing is TDR needs more room for more bodies, the resort is just to small for the masses it can produce.

 

[mahnamahna101]

I am not sure if you can draw a firm conclusion from the IOA number because I Hogwarts Express throws a unique variable into the mix. With the opening of Diagon Alley it's not surprising that UOR would get the lion's share of the first clicks, but HE has really driven park to park ticket sales so IOA is probably getting a lot more second clicks thus increasing it actual attendance. I don't think the investors are going to care as much about that 0% as they are about the 18.7% increase in revenue for the Universal Orlando resort in the 3rd quarter.

With Kong, the MSHI expansion/revamp, possibly a JP expansion/revamp, with something to be done with TL, LC and Seuss in the near future, IOA will be fine. 200,000 guest increase is solid considering it was already at 8 million visitors.

In 3-4 years, both parks should be about equal in attendance. 9.5-10.5 million is my guess for the range by 2019.

 

[mahnamahna101]

Figures at not surprising within the USA. I personally don't see the Universal parks to ever come close to the Disney parks in Florida anytime soon. IoA staying flat because of no new attractions should be a little concerning for Universal, I would have expected an increase, especially in the face of Disney's parks which don't need to build new stuff yet consistently increase. This is why we investors love Bob Iger.

Real story is the Japanese market though. I think TDR will ultimately give MK a run for the top spot in five years. The bad thing is TDR needs more room for more bodies, the resort is just to small for the masses it can produce.

It didn't actually stay flat. It added 200,000 over last year. The percentage was just too small to be considered an increase.

And both Universal Orlando parks are going to leap-frog Hollywood Studios by 2017 lol. 2019 at the latest. Less than 5 years isn't 'anytime soon'?

 

[WondersOfLife]

The reason why Universal is taking in such a huge chunk of Disney's draw recently is obviously Harry Potter.

It's a HUGE scale project. On top of it being so freaking huge and the series being so popular both books and movies.. It's not just one attraction. It's an entire land.

The problem Disney's having is that none of their movies/series that are being used are as popular as Harry Potter.. With the exception of Star Wars.. But they have yet to do anything with Star Wars. As much as I hate Star Wars, I also hate Harry Potter.. They need to create a full-out land themed to Star Wars* at HS.

On top of that, Avatarland is just gonna flop I believe. It'll be popular when it first opens, but there really isn't any fan base or popularity from it to be as great as Harry.

Disney needs to invest in things just as popular as Harry Potter.. That's what is financially successful as a business. Say what you will, but a Frozen-themed land would probably be almost as popular as Harry Potter land. Sorry that you don't like the idea, but it's true.

So Disney has these to choose from if they don't want to invest in outside resources that AREN'T owned by Disney... Frozen, Star Wars, PIXAR (not the toy story playland, but an actual pixar-themed land with full scale attractions, shops and restaurants), MARVEL themed land (with what they can work with.. BH6, Guardians..)..

That's all I can think of that would live up to Harry Potter's popularity. Going outside of Disney, Doctor Who in EPCOT's World Showcase would probably bring in a large amount of Who fans. They already lost the Nintendo idea so that's out.

All I'm saying is Disney isn't going to gain back any percentage lost to Harry Potter with only single attractions and meet and greets. They need a full-scale land based on one of the most popular genres of all time.. And Star Wars should be the way to start. At least, I'd prefer that over Frozen.

 

[ThemeParkTraveller]

It didn't actually stay flat. It added 200,000 over last year. The percentage was just too small to be considered an increase.

It seems odd that they would report a 16,000 increase in guests at TDS (0.1%) but not 200,000 extra at IoA.

 

[Jon81uk]

Nintendo replacing KidZone
Fallon/30 Rock replacing Twister
Fast and Furious replacing Disaster
Ministry of Magic replacing Fear Factor
Something in the MIB/Springfield mystery plot
Something to replace Shrek/Lucy
Updates for T2, E.T. and Mummy (rumored)

JP/JW revamp (using the Discovery Center and the rest of the Trikes plot)
possible Hogsmeade revamp (if they ever decide to remove DC... not likely. MoM is likely the last major Potter-based addition)
MSHI expansion (Doom and Carnage bulldozed, Hulk revamped, new theming/facades)
Toon Lagoon revamp/retheme
Lost Continent revamp/retheme
Seuss expansion
nighttime show for IOA

Volcano Bay (water park)
Sapphire Falls
Cabana Bay expansion
3-5 more resorts
Possible new CityWalk-esque complex
Eventual 3rd gate

Universal is going to surprise some people... USF should be past 9 million for 2015 if it increases a little bit less than this year. IOA should get to almost 8.5 million due to HE spillover.

2016 should definitely see both parks past 9 million.

By 2018, both could potentially be past 10 million - might even be a foregone conclusion! Kong + F&F + Fallon + water park +Sapphire Falls + Diagon spillover + Nintendo + Avengers + whatever else Universal comes up with=higher and higher attendance.

I don't see Universal's attendance declining anytime soon. They've got too much momentum and enough people haven't visited Universal Orlando to where it will continually seem fresh to almost all visitors.

But almost every person who visits USF will also visit at least MK at WDW, if not other WDW parks. Whereas a lot more people will go to WDW but not Uni. So if the Uni numbers increase the WDW numbers will increase at least a little too.

 

[Frankie The Beer]

And both Universal Orlando parks are going to leap-frog Hollywood Studios by 2017 lol. 2019 at the latest. Less than 5 years isn't 'anytime soon'?

People on this forum have been predicting the overtaking of Disney parks by Universal for years. They predict it every TEA report. It hasn't happened yet, the UOR resorts are not even close. A two million increase by 2017? That just don't sound remotely possibly without the Disney Parks getting a huge cut of those people as well.

Until people go to Florida and only go to Universal, there won't be any real inroads to Universal beating a Disney park. Just my opinion of course.

 

[WDWFigment]

The simple fact that TDL is not #1 when the OLC releases their *actual* attendance numbers using the first-click methodology means that the reverse-engineered numbers for the other parks are using different and/or flawed methodologies.

MK may see more unique guests due to park hopping over the course of the day, but there are not more bodies in the park at any given moment than there are in TDL.