TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[Figment2005]

The reason why Universal is taking in such a huge chunk of Disney's draw recently is obviously Harry Potter.

It's a HUGE scale project. On top of it being so freaking huge and the series being so popular both books and movies.. It's not just one attraction. It's an entire land.

The problem Disney's having is that none of their movies/series that are being used are as popular as Harry Potter.. With the exception of Star Wars.. But they have yet to do anything with Star Wars. As much as I hate Star Wars, I also hate Harry Potter.. They need to create a full-out land themed to Harry Potter at HS.

On top of that, Avatarland is just gonna flop I believe. It'll be popular when it first opens, but there really isn't any fan base or popularity from it to be as great as Harry.

Disney needs to invest in things just as popular as Harry Potter.. That's what is financially successful as a business. Say what you will, but a Frozen-themed land would probably be almost as popular as Harry Potter land. Sorry that you don't like the idea, but it's true.

So Disney has these to choose from if they don't want to invest in outside resources that AREN'T owned by Disney... Frozen, Star Wars, PIXAR (not the toy story playland, but an actual pixar-themed land with full scale attractions, shops and restaurants), MARVEL themed land (with what they can work with.. BH6, Guardians..)..

That's all I can think of that would live up to Harry Potter's popularity. Going outside of Disney, Doctor Who in EPCOT's World Showcase would probably bring in a large amount of Who fans. They already lost the Nintendo idea so that's out.

All I'm saying is Disney isn't going to gain back any percentage lost to Harry Potter with only single attractions and meet and greets. They need a full-scale land based on one of the most popular genres of all time.. And Star Wars should be the way to start. At least, I'd prefer that over Frozen.

So, where is this huge chunk of Disney's draw you are talking about? Last I checked, all 4 Disney parks saw an increase, and all four are still above Uni/IOA.

 

[WDF]

You can certainly tell who loves which parks in this discussion.

 

[Frankie The Beer]

The simple fact that TDL is not #1 when the OLC releases their *actual* attendance numbers using the first-click methodology means that the reverse-engineered numbers for the other parks are using different and/or flawed methodologies.

MK may see more unique guests due to park hopping over the course of the day, but there are not more bodies in the park at any given moment than there are in TDL.

TDL will overtake MK one day. I never go to TDL anymore, its far to crowded for my tastes.

 

[mahnamahna101]

It seems odd that they would report a 16,000 increase in guests at TDS (0.1%) but not 200,000 extra at IoA.

My bad. IOA did stay flat.

But almost every person who visits USF will also visit at least MK at WDW, if not other WDW parks. Whereas a lot more people will go to WDW but not Uni. So if the Uni numbers increase the WDW numbers will increase at least a little too.

Not Hollywood Studios. Especially if LMA and possibly Indy close over the next year or so. Then the park will have 5 rides and 4 shows.

Hollywood Studios will definitely be the first of the four WDW parks to be cut from anyone's trip. Especially when guests actually bother to compare Universal Orlando's lineup to DHS. It's not even close.

Without Frozen last year, many on here were predicting a steep decline for DHS. Closure of more people-eating shows isn't going to help DHS.

AK will increase because of Avatar, RoL, the Harambe expansion and nighttime safaris - not because of Universal. TDO is adding things, which will make the park a true full-day option if you experience every attraction minus Planet Watch.

Epcot will continue to increase because of Frozen, the Soarin' update and a possible Inside Out revamp for either Imagination or WoL. Universal may have initially driven crowds here, but bringing in something new will be what continues growth at Epcot.

MK is the only WDW park that will continue to attract visitors regardless of who they primarily came for. I agree there. However, by 2016/2017, attendance will either stay flat or slightly decrease unless new attractions are added. There's simply not enough room for 20m+ guests annually in MK. They need another 7-10 attractions, plus replacements for Laugh Floor, Philharmagic and Stitch before I could see them sustaining 20m+ on a regular basis.

 

[wdwfan4ver]

You can certainly tell who loves which parks in this discussion.

Not in my case because I never went to Japan at all and I have not plans to.

I only knew about the Universal of Japan going past AK and DHS ahead of time due to a press release Universal of Japan had earlier this year claiming they have a new record for for number of visitors for their 2014 Fiscal year.

Proof: http://ajw.asahi.com/article/business/AJ201502200056
http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/...al-studios-japan-on-track-for-visitor-record/

 

[BaconPancakes]

But almost every person who visits USF will also visit at least MK at WDW, if not other WDW parks. Whereas a lot more people will go to WDW but not Uni. So if the Uni numbers increase the WDW numbers will increase at least a little too.

Not necessarily. I know of a lot of people who are doing Universal only trips in the near future, myself included.

 

[WondersOfLife]

So, where is this huge chunk of Disney's draw you are talking about? Last I checked, all 4 Disney parks saw an increase, and all four are still above Uni/IOA.

I was doing some more research. According to Orlando Sentinel and other sources, while Disney's attendance did grow, Universal took some percentage out in more detail. 72.6 million visited Orlando's 3 biggest theme park destinations (Disney, uni and sea world). This is a 6% increase since 2013 which explains why Disney's attendance went up. However... Of the 72.6 million people who visited Orlando, 70.9% of visitors went to Disney World. That's a drop of 73.3% from 2013, while Universal's market share went from 19.3% to 22.6%.

While attendance and park rankings and such are fine and all for Disney, it's definitely clear that Universal is starting to make an impact of the overall majority of people attending the theme parks. They took a percentage of the overall Orlando tourist's destination decision by a few percent and I believe that that percentage will keep going up unless Disney decides to do a full scale project on a series just as popular as Harry Potter or Nintendo.

That's just how I am viewing it. You don't have to agree with me.

 

[wdwfan4ver]

I don't know about DHS attendance lowing much anytime soon unless what is being closed before the end of the Fiscal year. Disney has been closing attractions so far that weren't exactly popular.

If Streets of America is going to be closed this year, that is going to cause DHS a hit for Attendance for the Holidays. The Osborne Lights is a big draw for DHS and if SOA is closed, that would hurt Holiday attendance.

 

[mahnamahna101]

People on this forum have been predicting the overtaking of Disney parks by Universal for years. They predict it every TEA report. It hasn't happened yet, the UOR resorts are not even close. A two million increase by 2017? That just don't sound remotely possibly without the Disney Parks getting a huge cut of those people as well.

Until people go to Florida and only go to Universal, there won't be any real inroads to Universal beating a Disney park. Just my opinion of course.

Both will surpass DCA by 2017 if that counts for something

Once the water park, a few more hotels and the 3rd gate open, I'm pretty sure Universal will start to take some attendance away from WDW. Universal's problem is that 2 days is all you really need to experience the entire resort now. They need to make it, so that it takes 3-5 days to truly experience all Universal has to offer.

I said Hollywood Studios (the park which will soon only have 9 attractions open on any given day), not AK, Epcot or MK. I agree that it'll take far longer than that. AK would take 10-15 years, Epcot 20-25, MK is never happening unless UO builds a giant, people-eating DisneySea-caliber 3rd gate.

But is it really ridiculous to suggest either USF or IOA will surpass DHS and its desolate attraction lineup by 2019? 5 years (2015 numbers haven't been released yet) is more than enough for 2 million increase, especially with how rapid Universal Orlando expansion currently is.

USF and IOA could realistically surpass 10 million by 2020. HS isn't getting Star Wars until 2020/2021 at the earliest. And a Pixar expansion would probably open 2018/2019 at the earliest.

3 years is enough to add 2 million at USF. Especially with Diagon adding 700,000-1,000,000 for 2015. USF isn't resting on its laurels - I could see 1.8 million over the next 3 years. Averages to about 600,000 added each year. If MK can increase from 18 million to 19 million in a year, why can't Universal add 2 million over 3?

 

[danlb_2000]

It didn't actually stay flat. It added 200,000 over last year. The percentage was just too small to be considered an increase.

And both Universal Orlando parks are going to leap-frog Hollywood Studios by 2017 lol. 2019 at the latest. Less than 5 years isn't 'anytime soon'?

Where did you get the 200,000 numbers? It's not in the TEA report.

 

[mahnamahna101]

Where did you get the 200,000 numbers? It's not in the TEA report.

My bad. They stayed flat. I got USF and IOA mixed up!

 

[danlb_2000]

I don't know about DHS attendance lowing much anytime soon unless what is being closed before the end of the Fiscal year. Disney has been closing attractions so far that weren't exactly popular.

If Streets of America is going to be closed this year, that is going to cause DHS a hit for Attendance for the Holidays. The Osborne Lights is a big draw for DHS and if SOA is closed, that would hurt Holiday attendance.

I think if they start major construction at DHS and don't have something to counter balance it like the Frozen stuff, it might take an attendance hit for a year or to.

 

[SJN1279]

NO IP in the Universal Orlando arsenal is anywhere near as popular as Potter. This Potter expansion in 2014 was leading many to believe that Universal would skyrocket ahead of DHS and DAK, but it didn't come close to happening. Kong, Nintendo, and Fast and the Furious are not going to be the difference makers either.

Universal had their silver bullet, they fired, and it had no effect(well maybe on Sea World).

 

[gmajew]

It seems odd that they would report a 16,000 increase in guests at TDS (0.1%) but not 200,000 extra at IoA.

Because they posted the same number for both years.... Which is no increase.

 

[Figment2005]

I was doing some more research. According to Orlando Sentinel and other sources, while Disney's attendance did grow, Universal took some percentage out in more detail. 72.6 million visited Orlando's 3 biggest theme park destinations (Disney, uni and sea world). This is a 6% increase since 2013 which explains why Disney's attendance went up. However... Of the 72.6 million people who visited Orlando, 70.9% of visitors went to Disney World. That's a drop of 73.3% from 2013, while Universal's market share went from 19.3% to 22.6%.

While attendance and park rankings and such are fine and all for Disney, it's definitely clear that Universal is starting to make an impact of the overall majority of people attending the theme parks. They took a percentage of the overall Orlando tourist's destination decision by a few percent and I believe that that percentage will keep going up unless Disney decides to do a full scale project on a series just as popular as Harry Potter or Nintendo.

That's just how I am viewing it. You don't have to agree with me.

That's fine, I just don't see 1.3% as a "huge chunk of Disney"

 

[gmajew]

I think the most interesting number in the report is actually Universal California.... It saw an 11% increase before Potter opens it should be able to leap frog California Adventure once this does open.

 

[ThemeParkTraveller]

Because they posted the same number for both years.... Which is no increase.

I'm aware of that fact in the report. I was responding to the previous poster's claim that they saw an additional 200,000 guests for IoA.

 

[Shaman]

The Frozen ride at Epcot, RoL/Avatarland, and Disney Springs investments should help hold the line against rivals while Star Wars Land (LucasFilm Land?), Pixar Place expansion(?) take place. These numbers sadly seem to validate Disney's slow-approach philosophy. Comcast has spent lots of money to barely make a dent (the parks needed lots of work)...how long will investors allow this? I applaud their aggressiveness, but they are on the clock.

There are other variables...how long will the public submit to these ridiculous admission prices? How will the economy perform? There are big IPs out there waiting to be picked up...who wins them? Who can create popular IPs in-house? What about creating unique guest experiences?

An IoA attendance increase on the back of a Marvel expansion is still a win for Disney. What will Disney do with Future World?

Fun times to be a theme park enthusiast.

 

[Donald Razorduck]

Some thoughs,

Universal has had a more profound impact on SeaWorld than Disney as it grows into more than a day resort. SeaWorld has missed opportunities to develop it's it's own resort system. Discovery Cove screams for a high end resort attached to it styled to the paradise theme. That said Universal is SeaWorld's friend. I say that, cause I live in the central US. We and most folks I know plan for a Orlando trip every four or five years. That always consisted with it being a mainly Disney trip with a day or two somewhere else. Universal is forcing a rethinking of that mindset. It has for us. Our target date for another 5 thousand buck Orlando escape is 2017. We didn't do Universal this Feb. We focused on Disney and did it all sans Blizzard Beach. With nothing major opening up at Disney, we see no need to visit in 2017. Universal will have tons of new plus what we missed from the last trip. I see an easy two days at the dry park and now we want to make sure Volcano Bay is open. So there's three days. We now plan to fill.our five day window with Discovery Cove and Seaworld for the other two days.

I simply see a future of families doing a Disney trip and a Universal and all the rest trip instead of Disney and a day or two somewhere else trip. I think it'll take ten years for this pattern to fully develop. Universal's growth explosion is just too new to start effecting the overall pattern shift I see coming.

 

[mahnamahna101]

NO IP in the Universal Orlando arsenal is anywhere near as popular as Potter. This Potter expansion in 2014 was leading many to believe that Universal would skyrocket ahead of DHS and DAK, but it didn't come close to happening. Kong, Nintendo, and Fast and the Furious are not going to be the difference makers either.

Universal had their silver bullet, they fired, and it had no effect(well maybe on Sea World).

All of Nintendo (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Donkey Kong, Star Fox, Metroid, Kirby, Animal Crossing, etc) is equal to Potter's draw IMO. Collectively, it's a gigantic deal for Universal. Mario and Pokemon are definitely HUGE in terms of potential merch/food/beverage sales.

Kong and F&F will draw in big crowds because they'll be quality E-ticket additions. You know, the kind WDW used to get (Splash, Space, Big Thunder, ToT, Kilimanjaro).

The IP doesn't matter at this point. Potter brings people in - the remainder of the parks will keep guests there and let them know what Universal has to offer.

Hollywood Studios WILL drop. When LMA, Indy and either Mermaid or B&TB close within the next 1-2 yrs, attendance will start to decline. They can't sustain growth with only 8-10 attractions forever. Even with Universal doing the heavy lifting.