TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[hopemax]

I am not sure if you can draw a firm conclusion from the IOA number because I Hogwarts Express throws a unique variable into the mix. With the opening of Diagon Alley it's not surprising that UOR would get the lion's share of the first clicks, but HE has really driven park to park ticket sales so IOA is probably getting a lot more second clicks thus increasing it actual attendance. I don't think the investors are going to care as much about that 0% as they are about the 18.7% increase in revenue for the Universal Orlando resort in the 3rd quarter.

This is what I was going to say. If the report, really is "first clicks." My personal experience while anecdotal, may not be unique, but the way things are now, Studios gets our first click. Minions has to be done first because of the low capacity, and there is no wait time penalty to holding off to do IOA stuff in the afternoon. Because of the Hogwarts Express we don't think in terms of "one park one day, the other the next. " It's "morning and afternoon." The last 10 times I went, we only entered IOA first once, and that was day we didn't go to the Studios at all.

They say they don't release official attendance figures because they "can be misinterpreted." And as someone pointed out, revenue was strong, and I think they said they were happy with the distribution of ticket sales and the number of park hoppers sold, so this may be a case where the "misinterpretation" is actually valid. If these numbers really are "first clicks."

 

[WDWFigment]

I think the most interesting number in the report is actually Universal California.... It saw an 11% increase before Potter opens it should be able to leap frog California Adventure once this does open.

The biggest problem USH has--that could prevent that from happening--is parking. I suspect they will make efforts to reduce/eliminate APs and go for tourists instead.

In other words, don't be surprised to see huge revenue increases, but more conservative attendance gains.

 

[asianway]

NO IP in the Universal Orlando arsenal is anywhere near as popular as Potter. This Potter expansion in 2014 was leading many to believe that Universal would skyrocket ahead of DHS and DAK, but it didn't come close to happening. Kong, Nintendo, and Fast and the Furious are not going to be the difference makers either.

Universal had their silver bullet, they fired, and it had no effect(well maybe on Sea World).

They didn't have anything as sexy as a fire engine, that's for sure. Diagon was only a half year impact

 

[Donald Razorduck]

I was doing some more research. According to Orlando Sentinel and other sources, while Disney's attendance did grow, Universal took some percentage out in more detail. 72.6 million visited Orlando's 3 biggest theme park destinations (Disney, uni and sea world). This is a 6% increase since 2013 which explains why Disney's attendance went up. However... Of the 72.6 million people who visited Orlando, 70.9% of visitors went to Disney World. That's a drop of 73.3% from 2013, while Universal's market share went from 19.3% to 22.6%.

While attendance and park rankings and such are fine and all for Disney, it's definitely clear that Universal is starting to make an impact of the overall majority of people attending the theme parks. They took a percentage of the overall Orlando tourist's destination decision by a few percent and I believe that that percentage will keep going up unless Disney decides to do a full scale project on a series just as popular as Harry Potter or Nintendo.

That's just how I am viewing it. You don't have to agree with me.

That's the beginning of the slowly evolving pattern of Universal forcing families into the Disney trip and then an Universal and the rest trip instead of a Disney and the rest model. It's overall good for Orlando as the Sentinel points out but Disney is stagnating and will more as families switch to the two separate trip model. We, as a family felt a bit disappointed we didn't hit Universal last trip and are breaking our 4 to 5 year visit model to hit Uni in 2017. That will be our first trip to Orlando without Disney being the primary focus. I really see Disney developing a lack of interest from the teen perspective where Uni isn't. We are typical, Mom and Dad with a son and a girl two and a half years apart and they are pre teens now, tell me what Disney is doing to lure them back compared to Universal. By the time Star Wars comes around they'll be in college. Disney is simply moving at too much of a slower pace. The effect will be more evident 5 years out than now.

 

[jt04]

That's the beginning of the slowly evolving pattern of Universal forcing families into the Disney trip and then an Universal and the rest trip instead of a Disney and the rest model. It's overall good for Orlando as the Sentinel points out but Disney is stagnating and will more as families switch to the two separate trip model. We, as a family felt a bit disappointed we didn't hit Universal last trip and are breaking our 4 to 5 year visit model to hit Uni in 2017. That will be our first tip to Orlando without Disney being the primary focus. I really see Disney developing a lack of interest from the teen perspective where Uni isn't. We are typical, Mom and Dad with a son and a girl two and a half years apart and they are pre teens now, tell me what Disney is doing to lure them back compared to Universal. By the time Star Wars comes around they'll be in college. Disney is simply moving at too much of a slower pace. The effect will be more evident 5 years out than now.

Nope. Star Wars/Pixar and Frozen will just add to the momentum of the DAK/Pandora and Springs expansions plus the WDW 50th anniversary on top of all that.

 

[BJones82]

All of Nintendo (Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, Donkey Kong, Star Fox, Metroid, Kirby, Animal Crossing, etc) is equal to Potter's draw IMO. Collectively, it's a gigantic deal for Universal. Mario and Pokemon are definitely HUGE in terms of potential merch/food/beverage sales.

I don't agree with how Nintendo stands at this point... Nintendo is coasting on it's old classics at this point losing ground to other game developers and Game systems yearly... They can afford to do this for over a decade before they are hurting because of how much they have saved up but the Wii U was a flop (compared to all other next gen gaming systems) and people aren't buying them just in the numbers they're buying PS4s and XBox Ones just to play the classics... What this means is that the classics have less meaning on a family going to Florida today than they would have say 5-10 years ago... I am stoked to see them in USF don't get me wrong, I just don't see them being the injection of people that HP was or Star Wars can/will be once WDW gets off their and announces it already...

I think once they do announce it we will see it faster than we saw Avatar land for 2 reasons: 1) DHS needs it more than AK needed Avatar land, 2) WDW needs it more now than they needed Avatar land when it was announced, if WDW doesn't want DHS to fall to either of the USF parks in attendance they need that in the next 2-3 years not 5-6 years and they have the money to do it if they want...

All we can do is wait and see, I guarantee you though that Disney knew about USF's growth before this report came out and as much as they are about the bottom line they won't like the idea of USF gaining on them like this...

 

[Donald Razorduck]

I'll expand on my what's Disney doing to get teens want to come to their parks. The glaring answer is Marvel, considering the massive amounts of movies in the pipeline.

Oh wait, the theme park rights belong to Uni east of the Ol' Man River.

I'd seriously be looking at South Texas for a Disney park as Disney parks are room confined on the west coast and restricted on the east coast.

 

[Donald Razorduck]

I don't agree with how Nintendo stands at this point... Nintendo is coasting on it's old classics at this point losing ground to other game developers and Game systems yearly... They can afford to do this for over a decade before they are hurting because of how much they have saved up but the Wii U was a flop (compared to all other next gen gaming systems) and people aren't buying them just in the numbers they're buying PS4s and XBox Ones just to play the classics... What this means is that the classics have less meaning on a family going to Florida today than they would have say 5-10 years ago... I am stoked to see them in USF don't get me wrong, I just don't see them being the injection of people that HP was or Star Wars can/will be once WDW gets off their ***** and announces it already...

I think once they do announce it we will see it faster than we saw Avatar land for 2 reasons: 1) DHS needs it more than AK needed Avatar land, 2) WDW needs it more now than they needed Avatar land when it was announced, if WDW doesn't want DHS to fall to either of the USF parks in attendance they need that in the next 2-3 years not 5-6 years and they have the money to do it if they want...

All we can do is wait and see, I guarantee you though that Disney new about USF's growth before this report came out and as much as they are about the bottom line they won't like the idea of USF gaining on them like this...

Entering the mobile app market will do wonders.

 

[BJones82]

Entering the mobile app market will do wonders.

Mobile gaming is huge I agree and it will help some... but it wont help them with their fight against Xbox and Play Station... I honestly wouldn't be surprised or upset if Nintendo just went completely Mobile and didn't bring out another console...

I would say though that WDW holds the trumps... Marvel > Nintendo, Star Wars > HP... Even if they never can negotiate Marvel into Orlando, as a company Marvel will get it's own WD Park either it's own in Texas or in DLC as a 3rd Gate. Nintendo will help USF no doubt and I love actually being excited to go to USF again as well as WDW but being that Disney owns two massive franchises they haven't begun to do anything with in parks while USF has all their cards on the table, Disney just doesn't have anything to worry about as long as they don't drag their feet.

 

[s8film40]

I'll expand on my what's Disney doing to get teens want to come to their parks. The glaring answer is Marvel, considering the massive amounts of movies in the pipeline.

Oh wait, the theme park rights belong to Uni east of the Ol' Man River.

I'd seriously be looking at South Texas for a Disney park as Disney parks are room confined on the west coast and restricted on the east coast.

I think Disney is too afraid of cannibalizing their WDW attendance to build another US resort. I wouldn't expect to see this happen unless they just give up on the Central FL market and close multiple parts of WDW.

 

[BJones82]

I think Disney is too afraid of cannibalizing their WDW attendance to build another US resort. I wouldn't expect to see this happen unless they just give up on the Central FL market and close multiple parts of WDW.

I could see it getting added to DLC though, it would give people reasons to go to both and we are already seeing that somewhat with the Marvel marathon(I think it was a marathon it might have just been a 5k or something).

Cannibalizing WDW would be bad but to do nothing with Marvel would be worse considering they need to compete with HP & Nintendo they need both Star Wars and Marvel.

 

[Donald Razorduck]

Nope. Star Wars/Pixar and Frozen will just add to the momentum of the DAK/Pandora and Springs expansions plus the WDW 50th anniversary on top of all that.

What momentum? Outside of fan forums, there's no momentum at all. Pixar is all still conjecture in scope and detail. I'll be 2019 at the earliest unless it's a themed up midway from the state fair.

 

[s8film40]

Mobile gaming is huge I agree and it will help some... but it wont help them with their fight against Xbox and Play Station... I honestly wouldn't be surprised or upset if Nintendo just went completely Mobile and didn't bring out another console...

Console/game platform popularity is completely irrelevant, it's about the characters. I would say at this point in time Mario is about as well known as Mickey.

I would say though that WDW holds the trumps... Marvel > Nintendo, Star Wars > HP... Even if they never can negotiate Marvel into Orlando, as a company Marvel will get it's own WD Park either it's own in Texas or in DLC as a 3rd Gate. Nintendo will help USF no doubt and I love actually being excited to go to USF again as well as WDW but being that Disney owns two massive franchises they haven't begun to do anything with in parks while USF has all their cards on the table, Disney just doesn't have anything to worry about as long as they don't drag their feet.

I would agree with you here that Disney has some better IP, however it's all about implementation. At this point in time I don't think Disney has the ability or desire to create something on the same level of what Universal has done with HP.

 

[BJones82]

Console/game platform popularity is completely irrelevant, it's about the characters. I would say at this point in time Mario is about as well known as Mickey.

I can't agree on that, ask any kids under the age of 10 in 'Merika (sorry I had to lol) they all know Mickey, half know Mario... Maybe... Consoles is completely relevant, the more consoles sell the more the characters get in front of that age group, the more they are on consoles the more that age group wants the mobile games, the more they want the mobile games and the more they see the characters on the consoles the more they want to see them in the parks... If you asked the 90's kids who Mario was everyone knew, now today not so much...

I would agree with you here that Disney has some better IP, however it's all about implementation. At this point in time I don't think Disney has the ability or desire to create something on the same level of what Universal has done with HP.

I agree with you here, it is all about implementation and right now Universal is showing the hunger for quality Disney showed in the 70-80s... Maybe this new competition will cause them to up their game (we can only hope) because let's face it they haven't really had competition sense Epcot opened lol...

 

[BaconPancakes]

What momentum? Outside of fan forums, there's no momentum at all. Pixar is all still conjecture in scope and detail. I'll be 2019 at the earliest unless it's a themed up midway from the state fair.

I'm willing to wager I'll be in my forties by the time anything Stars Wars related opens in DHS. Imagine all of the attractions and expansions UO will have created by the time anything SW opens.

Also laughing at the thought of Disney Springs having any effect on people visiting WDW.

 

[Donald Razorduck]

I think Disney is too afraid of cannibalizing their WDW attendance to build another US resort. I wouldn't expect to see this happen unless they just give up on the Central FL market and close multiple parts of WDW.

Like WDW cannibalized Disneyland?

The key is differentiation. A Texas park would allow a revisit to Zorro maybe even a second try at The Lone Ranger. Give Marvel properties their proper due. Texas is exploding and lacks a major park out side of a couple of Six Flags and a SeaWorld that has tons of potential but has been mostly ignored. I'd think it would be local heavy like Disneyland but would perform no worse.

 

[Zummi Gummi]

I can't imagine today is a very good day at the Sea World offices.

 

[BJones82]

I'm willing to wager I'll be in my forties by the time anything Stars Wars related opens in DHS. Imagine all of the attractions and expansions UO will have created by the time anything SW opens.

Also laughing at the thought of Disney Springs having any effect on people visiting WDW.

As a business this decision would make absolutely NO sense, they are firmly #1 right now but actively waiting for USF to over take them before doing anything would be a huge fail financially, WDW for the first time sense Epcot opened really is seeing competition from USF, the idea they would let their profits drain because they aren't willing to do the work necessary to stay ahead of USF just goes against everything we have seen them do to get profits over the last decade lol... Their saving grace will be their greed lol...

 

[Bairstow]

Hollywood Studios WILL drop. When LMA, Indy and either Mermaid or B&TB close within the next 1-2 yrs, attendance will start to decline. They can't sustain growth with only 8-10 attractions forever. Even with Universal doing the heavy lifting.

I used to think so, but now I'm not sure.
As long as Hollywood Studios is part of the four-park hopper arrangement, it's going to continue to grow.

The whole park could be closed expect for Midway Mania, some restrooms, and a hot dog cart and it will still outperform Islands.

Disney understands this better than anyone. To them, building expensive attractions at the Studios is a waste of money because there's no need for the Studios to attract guests on its own. They're not wrong.

 

[Mouse_Trap]

I think the numbers are very positive for all the parks as a whole. Worldwide attendance appears to have gone up as a whole. That is good news for the industry.

Orlando no matter how you slice it wow a lot of people go to Orlando for vacation! That is good news for every theme park in the area as more people come more things become successful! Universal jump is impressive... IOA may be flat but it is still a positive as the entire property is up!

WDW is up 3% overall that is again a big number on its old total guess count. Over a million more people visited that is impressive considering only NFL has opened.

Nintendo replacing KidZone
Fallon/30 Rock replacing Twister
Fast and Furious replacing Disaster
Ministry of Magic replacing Fear Factor
Something in the MIB/Springfield mystery plot
Something to replace Shrek/Lucy
Updates for T2, E.T. and Mummy (rumored)

JP/JW revamp (using the Discovery Center and the rest of the Trikes plot)
possible Hogsmeade revamp (if they ever decide to remove DC... not likely. MoM is likely the last major Potter-based addition)
MSHI expansion (Doom and Carnage bulldozed, Hulk revamped, new theming/facades)
Toon Lagoon revamp/retheme
Lost Continent revamp/retheme
Seuss expansion
nighttime show for IOA

Volcano Bay (water park)
Sapphire Falls
Cabana Bay expansion
3-5 more resorts
Possible new CityWalk-esque complex
Eventual 3rd gate

Universal is going to surprise some people... USF should be past 9 million for 2015 if it increases a little bit less than this year. IOA should get to almost 8.5 million due to HE spillover.

2016 should definitely see both parks past 9 million.

By 2018, both could potentially be past 10 million - might even be a foregone conclusion! Kong + F&F + Fallon + water park +Sapphire Falls + Diagon spillover + Nintendo + Avengers + whatever else Universal comes up with=higher and higher attendance.

I don't see Universal's attendance declining anytime soon. They've got too much momentum and enough people haven't visited Universal Orlando to where it will continually seem fresh to almost all visitors.

I'm confused why you quoted my post, I think you're broadly agreeing with the points I've made in my last few points. Did you mean to quote the people who are trying to rubbish UOR?

Figures at not surprising within the USA. I personally don't see the Universal parks to ever come close to the Disney parks in Florida anytime soon. IoA staying flat because of no new attractions should be a little concerning for Universal, I would have expected an increase, especially in the face of Disney's parks which don't need to build new stuff yet consistently increase. This is why we investors love Bob Iger.

Both IoA and USF are now getting pretty close to both DAK and DHS attendances. The rate Universal is expanding, it will be a shock if they haven't overtaken them within 3-4 years.
IoA attendance won't be concerning Universal. IoA has seen huge increases in the last 5 years, and its held those numbers without any more attractions being added (yet).

Until people go to Florida and only go to Universal, there won't be any real inroads to Universal beating a Disney park. Just my opinion of course.

I know a lot of people from the UK who have gone to Orlando in the last 18 months, or who are going in the next year who are cutting out Disney because there is hardly anything new since they last visited, whilst Universal has opened much they want to see. You can bet they have heard about Diagon Alley, the Tangled Toilets....not so.